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Quantifying and managing uncertainty in systems biology: Mechanistic and data-driven models 量化和管理系统生物学中的不确定性:机械和数据驱动模型
IF 2.2 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2025.100557
Eva Balsa-Canto , Nùria Campo-Manzanares , Artai R. Moimenta , Geoffrey Roudaut , Diego Troitiño-Jordedo
Uncertainty poses a significant challenge to the reliability and interpretability of systems biology models. This review focuses on reducible epistemic uncertainty arising from incomplete data, measurement errors, or limited biological knowledge. We examine how this uncertainty affects both mechanistic models —such as dynamic kinetic and genome-scale metabolic models— and data-driven models, including neural networks trained on time-series data. Strategies for quantifying and mitigating uncertainty are reviewed, including profile likelihoods, Bayesian inference, ensemble modelling, optimal experimental design and active learning. Through illustrative case studies, we show how data limitations, model structure, and experimental design influence uncertainty propagation and model predictions. Finally, in our outlook, we highlight key research avenues to build more robust models, including hybrid frameworks combining mechanistic models with machine learning to improve interpretability and predictive performance, advances in inference methods and tools, or the definition of benchmarks to support reproducibility and method comparison.
不确定性对系统生物学模型的可靠性和可解释性提出了重大挑战。这篇综述的重点是由不完整的数据、测量误差或有限的生物学知识引起的可简化的认知不确定性。我们研究了这种不确定性如何影响机制模型(如动态动力学和基因组尺度代谢模型)和数据驱动模型(包括在时间序列数据上训练的神经网络)。本文回顾了量化和减轻不确定性的策略,包括轮廓似然、贝叶斯推理、集成建模、最优实验设计和主动学习。通过说明性案例研究,我们展示了数据限制、模型结构和实验设计如何影响不确定性传播和模型预测。最后,在我们的展望中,我们强调了构建更健壮模型的关键研究途径,包括将机制模型与机器学习相结合的混合框架,以提高可解释性和预测性能,推理方法和工具的进步,或者定义基准以支持可重复性和方法比较。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial Board Page 编委会页面
IF 2.2 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/S2452-3100(25)00029-0
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引用次数: 0
Structural identifiability of compartmental models: Recent progress and future directions 隔室模型的结构可识别性:最新进展和未来方向
IF 2.2 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2025.100559
Nicolette Meshkat , Anne Shiu
We summarize recent progress on the theory and applications of structural identifiability of compartmental models. On the applications side, we review identifiability analyses undertaken recently for models arising in epidemiology, oncology, and other areas; and we summarize common approaches for handling models that are unidentifiable. We also highlight recent theoretical and algorithmic results on how to reparametrize unidentifiable models and, in the context of linear compartmental models, how to predict identifiability properties directly from the model structure. Finally, we highlight future research directions.
本文综述了隔室模型结构可识别性理论和应用方面的最新进展。在应用方面,我们回顾了最近对流行病学、肿瘤学和其他领域的模型进行的可识别性分析;我们总结了处理不可识别模型的常用方法。我们还强调了最近关于如何重新参数化不可识别模型的理论和算法结果,以及在线性隔室模型的背景下,如何直接从模型结构预测可识别属性。最后,对未来的研究方向进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial overview: ‘Identifiability, estimation, and uncertainty in mathematical modeling’ 编辑概述:“数学建模中的可识别性、估计和不确定性”
IF 2.2 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2025.100561
Alejandro F. Villaverde, Matthew J. Simpson
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引用次数: 0
On the different flavours of practical identifiability 关于实际可识别性的不同口味
IF 2.2 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2025.100556
Mio Heinrich , Rafael Arutjunjan , Jens Timmer
Identifiability is fundamental to any parameter estimation process and plays a role in a wide range of scientific research disciplines. Structural identifiability is a well-defined and purely model-based property that can be analysed in the absence of experimentally measured data with various methods. In contrast, practical identifiability lacks a concise technical definition that is agreed upon, leading to conflicting assessments. We focus on the practical identifiability analysis of ordinary differential equation models in systems biology and point out the differences between definitions and their implications. We differentiate between classifications based on sensitivity and classifications based on confidence intervals. We advocate for precise wording in discussions of practical identifiability analysis results so that the employed method is clear from the terminology.
We propose that model parameters should be termed a priori or a posteriori sensitive if sensitivity-based methods are used and finitely identified if the assessment is based on confidence intervals.
可辨识性是任何参数估计过程的基础,在广泛的科学研究学科中起着重要作用。结构可识别性是一种定义良好的纯粹基于模型的属性,可以在没有实验测量数据的情况下用各种方法进行分析。相比之下,实际可识别性缺乏商定的简明技术定义,导致相互矛盾的评估。我们着重于系统生物学中常微分方程模型的实际可辨识性分析,并指出定义之间的差异及其含义。我们区分基于灵敏度的分类和基于置信区间的分类。我们提倡在讨论实际的可识别性分析结果时措辞准确,以便所采用的方法从术语上清楚。我们建议,如果使用基于灵敏度的方法,模型参数应称为先验或后验敏感,如果评估基于置信区间,则模型参数应被有限识别。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial Board Page 编委会页面
IF 3.4 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-09 DOI: 10.1016/S2452-3100(25)00007-1
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引用次数: 0
On structural and practical identifiability: Current status and update of results 关于结构和实际可识别性:现状和结果的更新
IF 3.4 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2025.100546
Mio Heinrich , Marcus Rosenblatt , Franz-Georg Wieland , Hans Stigter , Jens Timmer
Identifiability of parameters in dynamical systems is a fundamental concept of mathematical modelling in systems biology and systems medicine. Both the structurally inherent identifiability of parameters in models and the practical identifiability of parameters, which arises from insufficient available data, play crucial roles in the development of useful models.
Here, we provide an overview of recent developments in the field of structural identifiability analysis of models based on ordinary differential equations, emphasising its importance for accurate parameter estimation. We extend an existing benchmark study by comparing the methods for structural identifiability analysis with the recently developed StrucID, showing it to be a fast, efficient and intuitive algorithm. Furthermore, this review highlights the challenges in practical identifiability analysis and the need for benchmarking with real-world models using experimental data. The potential benefits of standardising documentation for benchmarking models with experimental data and practical non-identifiabilities are stressed.
动态系统参数的可辨识性是系统生物学和系统医学中数学建模的一个基本概念。模型中参数的结构固有可识别性和由于可用数据不足而产生的参数的实际可识别性在开发有用的模型中起着至关重要的作用。在这里,我们概述了基于常微分方程的模型结构可识别性分析领域的最新发展,强调了其对准确参数估计的重要性。通过将现有的结构可识别性分析方法与最近开发的结构可识别性分析方法进行比较,我们扩展了已有的基准研究,表明它是一种快速、高效和直观的算法。此外,本综述强调了实际可识别性分析中的挑战,以及使用实验数据与现实世界模型进行基准测试的必要性。强调了对具有实验数据和实际不可识别性的基准模型进行标准化文档的潜在好处。
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引用次数: 0
Calcium-mediated mitochondrial energy deficiency in Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases: Insights from computational modelling 帕金森病和阿尔茨海默病中钙介导的线粒体能量缺乏:来自计算模型的见解
IF 3.4 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2024.100539
Valérie Voorsluijs , Alexander Skupin
Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases are the most prevalent neurodegenerative disorders worldwide and are characterised by progressive cognitive and functional impairments caused by neuronal loss. Energy deficiency is a predominant hallmark of their pathophysiology and plays a central role in the development of the disease, notably by mitochondrial dysfunction enhancing protein aggregation and oxidative stress which trigger subsequently immune responses and neuronal loss. Quantifying this energetic deficiency and identifying specific causative mechanisms from the complex network of interacting metabolic and regulatory pathways at play is rather challenging, where integrative mathematical modelling represents a powerful tool to support these investigations. Here, we review the latest developments in integrative modelling in brain bioenergetics in relation to Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases where we focus on the regulatory role of Ca2+ signalling. Finally, we discuss recent challenges and future directions to improve the current understanding of the energy-deficiency theory of neurodegeneration.
阿尔茨海默病和帕金森病是世界上最常见的神经退行性疾病,其特征是由神经元丧失引起的进行性认知和功能障碍。能量缺乏是其病理生理学的主要特征,在疾病的发展中起着核心作用,特别是通过线粒体功能障碍增强蛋白质聚集和氧化应激,从而引发随后的免疫反应和神经元损失。量化这种能量不足,并从相互作用的代谢和调节途径的复杂网络中确定特定的致病机制是相当具有挑战性的,其中综合数学模型代表了支持这些研究的强大工具。在这里,我们回顾了与阿尔茨海默病和帕金森病相关的脑生物能量学综合建模的最新进展,其中我们关注Ca2+信号的调节作用。最后,我们讨论了最近的挑战和未来的方向,以提高目前对神经变性的能量缺乏理论的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial Board Page 编委会页面
IF 3.4 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/S2452-3100(25)00002-2
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引用次数: 0
Untangling cell–cell communication networks and on-treatment response in immunotherapy 解开细胞-细胞通讯网络和免疫治疗中的治疗反应
IF 3.4 Q2 BIOCHEMISTRY & MOLECULAR BIOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.coisb.2024.100534
Lisa Maria Steinheuer , Niklas Klümper , Tobias Bald , Kevin Thurley
Immunotherapies have shown efficacy in improving autoimmune conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis and are now widely established for various cancer entities. Nevertheless, predicting patient outcomes prior to therapy remains very challenging, likely attributable to the diversity and complex, interactive dynamics of immune cells. Recent advancements in statistical analysis as well as machine learning and mathematical modeling techniques have provided insights into immune-cell regulation and tumor-immune dynamics. Here, we discuss recent developments in this field, with the aim of deriving a path to improvements in treatment biomarker identification and adverse effect prediction. Deriving a quantitative understanding of the complex interactions among immune cell subpopulations holds promise for optimizing treatment strategies in numerous health conditions from chronic inflammation to cancer.
免疫疗法已显示出改善自身免疫性疾病(如类风湿关节炎)的功效,现已广泛应用于各种癌症实体。然而,在治疗前预测患者的结果仍然非常具有挑战性,这可能归因于免疫细胞的多样性和复杂的相互作用动力学。统计分析以及机器学习和数学建模技术的最新进展为免疫细胞调节和肿瘤免疫动力学提供了见解。在这里,我们讨论了这一领域的最新发展,目的是找到一条改善治疗生物标志物识别和不良反应预测的途径。定量了解免疫细胞亚群之间复杂的相互作用,有望优化从慢性炎症到癌症等多种健康状况的治疗策略。
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引用次数: 0
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Current Opinion in Systems Biology
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