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Modeling the trend of Iraqi GDP for 1970-2020 伊拉克1970-2020年国内生产总值趋势建模
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3455
Ahlam Hanash Gatea, Nazik J. Sadik, H. A. Rasheed
The study of economic growth indicators is of fundamental importance in estimating the effectiveness of economic development plans, as well as the great role it plays in determining appropriate economic policies in order to optimally use the factors that lead to the dynamics of growth in Iraq, especially during a certain period of time. The gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices), which is considered a part of the national accounts, which is considered as an integrated dynamic of statistics that produces in front of policy makers the possibility of determining whether the economy is witnessing a state of expansion or evaluating economic activity and its efficiency in order to reach the size of the overall economy. The research aims to determine the best and most efficient statistical model to be used in forecasting the GDP in Iraq based on time series data for the period from (1970-2020) years. Where the general trend models (Linear trend, Quadratic trend and Exponential Trend) were applied, and the three models were compared to choose the best model using some statistical criteria, including the Akiaki Information Standard (AIC) and Schwartz Standard (SBS). The results showed that the appropriate model is the Quadratic trend model, were predicting and forecasting values are close to the real values of the GDP series.
研究经济增长指标对于评估经济发展计划的有效性以及它在确定适当的经济政策以最佳利用导致伊拉克增长动态的因素方面发挥的重要作用至关重要,特别是在一定时期内。国内生产总值(按当前价格计算),被视为国民账户的一部分,被视是一种综合统计动态,在决策者面前产生了确定经济是否处于扩张状态或评估经济活动及其效率以达到整体经济规模的可能性。该研究旨在根据(1970-2020)年的时间序列数据,确定用于预测伊拉克国内生产总值的最佳和最有效的统计模型。应用一般趋势模型(线性趋势、二次趋势和指数趋势),并使用一些统计标准(包括Akiaki信息标准(AIC)和Schwartz标准(SBS))对这三个模型进行比较,以选择最佳模型。结果表明,合适的模型是二次趋势模型,预测值与GDP序列的实际值接近。
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引用次数: 0
Based BIM techniques to clash detection for construction projects 基于BIM技术的建筑工程碰撞检测
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3461
Braa F. Abdalhameed, S. Naimi
Building Information Modeling (BIM) has brought about a qualitative change in the design and management of construction projects because it represents a digital simulation of the physical characteristics of the building, and this increases its efficiency before the actual construction begins. In Iraq, most construction projects still use CAD two-dimensional drawing for the purpose of the implementation process, especially government projects, and this causes many problems due to the difficulty of communication between the various disciplines involved in the design and misunderstanding during implementation. This type of problem is reduced by combining BIM drawings prepared by designers and making them into a single model. In this process of merging conflicts are found using BIM tools such as Autodesk Navisworks. There are three main types of detection. This article includes how a clash detector can help improve clashes in the design phase before starting to construct a specific building using BIM applications and focuses on hard detection type (overlap of a particular element with the others). The methodology involved in this research is to study an educational building (24-classroom model school) consisting of structural and architectural BIM models only, clash detection analysis is done using Autodesk Revit and Autodesk Navisworks Manage software.
建筑信息建模(BIM)为建筑项目的设计和管理带来了质的变化,因为它代表了建筑物理特性的数字模拟,并在实际施工开始前提高了其效率。在伊拉克,大多数建筑项目在实施过程中仍然使用CAD二维图,尤其是政府项目,这导致了许多问题,因为设计中涉及的各个专业之间难以沟通,以及实施过程中的误解。通过将设计师准备的BIM图纸组合成一个模型,可以减少这种类型的问题。在此合并过程中,会使用BIM工具(如Autodesk Navisworks)发现冲突。检测主要有三种类型。本文介绍了在开始使用BIM应用程序建造特定建筑之前,碰撞检测器如何在设计阶段帮助改善碰撞,并重点介绍了硬检测类型(特定元素与其他元素的重叠)。本研究涉及的方法是研究一栋仅由结构和建筑BIM模型组成的教育建筑(24间教室的模型学校),碰撞检测分析使用Autodesk Revit和Autodesk Navisworks Manage软件进行。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin Prediction with a hybrid model 基于混合模型的比特币预测
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3452
M. Ashour, A. Ahmed
. In recent years, Bitcoin has become the most widely used blockchain platform in business and finance. The goal of this work is to find a viable prediction model that incorporates and perhaps improves on a combination of available models. Among the techniques utilized in this paper are exponential smoothing, ARIMA, artificial neural networks (ANNs) models, and prediction combination models. The study's most obvious discovery is that artificial intelligence models improve the results of compound prediction models. The second key discovery was that a strong combination forecasting model that responds to the multiple fluctuations that occur in the bitcoin time series and Error improvement should be used. Based on the results, the prediction accuracy criterion and matching curve-fitting in this work demonstrated that if the residuals of the revised model are white noise, the forecasts are unbiased. Future work investigating robust hybrid model forecasting using fuzzy neural networks would be very interesting.
。近年来,比特币已成为商业和金融领域应用最广泛的区块链平台。这项工作的目标是找到一个可行的预测模型,该模型结合并可能改进现有模型的组合。本文中使用的技术包括指数平滑、ARIMA、人工神经网络(Ann)模型和预测组合模型。该研究最明显的发现是,人工智能模型改善了复合预测模型的结果。第二个关键发现是,应该使用一个强大的组合预测模型,以应对比特币时间序列中发生的多次波动和误差改进。在此基础上,本文的预测精度准则和匹配曲线拟合表明,如果修正模型的残差为白噪声,则预测是无偏的。未来研究使用模糊神经网络的鲁棒混合模型预测将非常有趣。
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引用次数: 2
Structural behavior of reinforced concrete pre-stressed tapered beams 钢筋混凝土预应力锥形梁的结构性能
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3460
Mohammed Dhaher Jasim, H. T. Nimnim
This research is focused on studying the flexural behavior of reinforced concrete prestressed (post-tensioned) tapered beams. The present study investigates the impact of compressive strength, prestressed reinforcement, and tapering ratio on flexural behavior. All tested beams have a total length equal to (2600mm) and a clear distance between supports equal to (2400mm), the width of the beam (250mm), and maintain the same amount of concrete volume. The experimental results showed that when a prestressed reinforcement changes from (one strand) for (two strands), this change will affect the prismatic beam, in which the first cracking and the ultimate load will be raised by (60% and 31.71%), respectively, and for a non-prismatic beam with tapering ratios of (1.5 and 2), the first cracking will increase by (12.5% and 2.63%) also the maximum load raised by (28.3% and 31.03%). The failure mode was flexural for all tested beams with crushing in the compression zone. This paper simulated a numerical analysis of experimentally tested specimens using a nonlinear finite element technique (ABAQUS/CAE 2021 software). The numerical outcomes revealed a good correlation compared with the results of the experimental study.
本研究的重点是研究钢筋混凝土预应力(后张)锥形梁的受弯性能。本研究调查了抗压强度、预应力钢筋和锥形比对弯曲性能的影响。所有测试梁的总长度等于(2600mm),支架之间的净距离等于(2400mm),梁的宽度为(250mm),并保持相同的混凝土体积。实验结果表明,当预应力钢筋从(一股)变为(两股)时,这种变化将影响棱柱梁,其中第一次开裂和极限荷载将分别提高(60%和31.71%),而对于锥形比为(1.5和2)的非棱柱梁,第一次开裂增加12.5%和2.63%,最大荷载增加28.3%和31.03%。本文使用非线性有限元技术(ABAQUS/neneneba CAE 2021软件)模拟了实验测试样本的数值分析。数值结果显示,与实验研究的结果相比,具有良好的相关性。
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引用次数: 0
Employing auxiliary natural lighting systems within the elements of traditional buildings: A special study on employing one of the auxiliary lighting techniques within one of the elements of a mosque in the ancient urban fabric 在传统建筑元素中使用辅助自然照明系统:关于在古代城市结构中清真寺元素中使用一种辅助照明技术的特别研究
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3436
Alaa Hadi Ubaid
Technological development is considered one of the most important influences that contributed to the change of some design elements (formal and functional), both or each. Among these elements is the minaret. This was evident in the old urban fabric, and because of the existence of other basic reasons in the traditional fabric, including the increase in the population of the weaving area, which led to the dispensation of the inner courtyard. It had changed from an element that has a shape and function to an element that has a shape only, to indicate the presence of a mosque this was evident in the old urban fabric .Due to the presence of other essential causes in the traditional fabric like the increase in population among the inhabitants of the fabric which led to neglecting the internal area , moreover climate change led to the use of window openings as outlets for air conditioning instruments ,the researcher employed the minaret to enable sunlight inter the inner space of the mosque (prayer space) due to the importance of natural sunlight effect on people's psychological and physiological health . This research was conducted in a clear sky of Babil province for latitude of (32.8) north, small samples were made measuring 1:20 for the minaret and the mosque space, a device for measuring the sunlight amount (Multi-Function Environment Meter 4IN1) was used . Results showed an increase in natural sunlight reflected inside the space of the mosque. This study came out with the following recommendations, the importance of employing the archeological elements which their functions were altered by technological growth to enhance the internal environment with the finding of solutions to the amount of
技术发展被认为是导致某些设计元素(形式和功能)变化的最重要影响之一,无论是两者还是两者。尖塔就是其中之一。这在旧的城市结构中很明显,因为传统结构中存在其他基本原因,包括编织区人口的增加,这导致了内院的分配。它已经从一个有形状和功能的元素变成了一个只有形状的元素,以表明清真寺的存在,这在旧的城市结构中是显而易见的。由于传统结构中存在其他基本原因,如结构中居民人口的增加,导致忽视了内部区域,此外,气候变化导致窗户开口被用作空调设备的出口,由于自然阳光对人们心理和生理健康的重要性,研究人员使用宣礼塔使阳光进入清真寺的内部空间(祈祷空间)。这项研究是在北纬(32.8)度的巴比尔省晴朗的天空中进行的,对宣礼塔和清真寺空间制作了1:20的小样本,使用了一种测量日照量的设备(多功能环境计4IN1)。结果显示,清真寺内部反射的自然阳光有所增加。这项研究提出了以下建议,即利用考古元素的重要性,这些元素的功能因技术发展而改变,以改善内部环境,找到解决
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引用次数: 0
Studying the effect of concentration on spectral and optical properties of chitosan polymer 研究了浓度对壳聚糖聚合物光谱和光学性能的影响
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3435
S. Abdulrazzaq
Due to its noteworthy physico-chemical behaviors, the chitosan (CS) biopolymer presents a compelling alternative to conventional biomaterials. By measuring the emission spectra at a spectrofluorophotometer in different concentrates (1x10 -4 , 1x10 -5 , and 1x10 -6 ) M, the spectral characteristics of the CS polymer were obtained. The crystallinity of the CS polymer was determined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis, which shows only one dominant peak indexed to the orthorhombic structure. With a drop in solution concentration, there was a shift toward the shorter wavelength and a decline in quantum yield. Using a UV-Vis spectrophotometer, the optical properties of the CS polymer, including its refractive index, absorption coefficient, energy band gap, extinction coefficient, and dielectric constant, have been studied. It was observed through the results that the optical parameters are linearly dependent with concentration. In contrast to the optical energy gap, which decreases with increasing concentration .
由于其值得注意的物理化学行为,壳聚糖(CS)生物聚合物是传统生物材料的一种引人注目的替代品。通过在分光荧光光度计上测量不同浓度(1x10-4、1x10-5和1x10-6)M的发射光谱,获得了CS聚合物的光谱特性。通过X射线衍射(XRD)分析测定了CS聚合物的结晶度,其显示只有一个主峰指向正交结构。随着溶液浓度的下降,出现了向更短波长的转变,量子产率下降。用紫外-可见分光光度计研究了CS聚合物的光学性能,包括折射率、吸收系数、能带隙、消光系数和介电常数。结果表明,光学参数与浓度呈线性关系。与光学能隙相反,光学能隙随着浓度的增加而减小。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of energetically critical processes for cocoa production in Santander, Colombia 在哥伦比亚桑坦德鉴定可可生产的能量关键过程
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3180
Camilo Leonardo Sandoval Rodríguez, Carlos Andres Angulo Julio, Arly Darío Rincón Quintero, J. A. Ascanio Villabona, O. Lengerke
The intensification of industrial activities in post-harvest cocoa processes has generated a disproportionate increase in energy consumption. The objective of this work is to describe those energetically critical ones that are used in the cocoa production line in Santander so that further research can evaluate the implementation of alternative or renewable energy systems. Through the collection of information and data management, it is seeking to promote the efficient use of energy based on the NTC ISO 500001. For this end, a description of the processes involved in the production of cocoa was made considering the technical data. Then, the energy consumed by the equipment used in the different processes was determined for 30 days, operating 24 hours a day, assuming power factors of 0.75 and 0.9. Finally, through analysis, calculations, and the application of the Pareto methodology, it was possible to identify that the process with the highest energy consumption is the cocoa refining step, since the equipment used in this process consumes more than 30% of energy from the total energy used for cocoa production.
可可收获后加工的工业活动加剧,导致能源消耗不成比例地增加。这项工作的目的是描述桑坦德可可生产线中使用的能源关键系统,以便进一步研究能够评估替代能源或可再生能源系统的实施情况。通过收集信息和数据管理,它正在寻求根据NTC ISO 500001促进能源的高效利用。为此,考虑到技术数据,对可可生产过程进行了说明。然后,假设功率因数为0.75和0.9,确定不同工艺中使用的设备在每天24小时运行的30天内消耗的能量。最后,通过分析、计算和帕累托方法的应用,可以确定能量消耗最高的过程是可可精炼步骤,因为该过程中使用的设备消耗的能量占可可生产总能量的30%以上。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial extension for a canine with partial forelimb amputation 前肢部分截肢犬的人工延伸
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3178
A. Rincón-Quintero, Gianina Garrido Silva, Jessica Gissella Maradey Lázaro, Edwin Francisco Forero García, Camilo Leonardo Sandoval Rodríguez
When a canine presents a serious case of disease, injury or necrosis, it is imperative to perform an amputation procedure, whatever the affected limb is, since it can minimize the risk of developing pathologies related to tissues, joints and spine, associated with an altered gait and/or unequal distribution of forces in their limbs. Thus, improvement alternatives arise such as prostheses which help to improve the quality of life of canines. The article proposes the development of a functional prototype of prosthesis for canines with partial forelimb amputation through the design and 3D modeling of the prosthesis, together with the selection of the material that adapts to the morphological conditions of the canine. Also, a cushioning system is incorporated to minimize the force of the impact with the ground when performing activities such as jumping, running or walking. Finally, the electronic component is included in the design and the respective electronic and biomechanical tests are carried out to verify its correct operation.
当犬出现严重的疾病、损伤或坏死时,无论受影响的肢体是什么,都必须进行截肢手术,因为这可以最大限度地降低与步态改变和/或四肢力量分布不均有关的组织、关节和脊椎病变的风险。因此,出现了改进的替代方案,例如有助于提高犬科动物生活质量的假肢。本文通过假肢的设计和三维建模,以及选择适合犬形态条件的材料,提出了前肢部分截肢犬假肢的功能原型的开发。此外,在进行跳跃、跑步或步行等活动时,还加入了缓冲系统,以最大限度地减少与地面的碰撞力。最后,将电子部件纳入设计,并进行相应的电子和生物力学测试,以验证其正确操作。
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引用次数: 0
Development of an expert system based on fuzzy logic as support for heat pipes design 基于模糊逻辑的热管设计支持专家系统的开发
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3077
Luis Alonso Betancur Arboleda, Pamela Hulse, L. Krambeck, J. Ascanio-Villabona, O. Lengerke, Camilo Sandoval
Heat pipe design and selection require specialist knowledge due to numerous possible combinations and restrictions that should be taken into account. The general objective of this work is to design a Specialist System that assists future engineers in material and working fluid selection for a suitable heat pipe application, based on the technical operating requirements. The methodology consisted of a qualitative perspective through interviews with two specialist engineers in the heat pipes area. The resulting information from the interviews was organized into a library, working as a source for the specialist system. In addition, several books from the literature completed the information in the library. Based on the operating conditions and the provided library, the program recommends suitable materials and working fluids and the necessity of porous media for the application, similar to a consult with a heat pipe specialist. The new expert system can be a tool for researchers and engineers in heat pipe design as passive control systems, providing more suitable solutions for each application
热管的设计和选择需要专业知识,因为需要考虑到许多可能的组合和限制。这项工作的总体目标是设计一个专家系统,帮助未来的工程师根据技术操作要求选择合适的热管应用的材料和工作流体。该方法包括通过采访热管领域的两名专业工程师进行定性分析。从访谈中得到的信息被组织成一个图书馆,作为专家系统的来源。此外,还有几本来自文献的书,完成了图书馆的信息。根据操作条件和提供的库,程序建议适合的材料和工作流体以及应用的多孔介质的必要性,类似于咨询热管专家。新的专家系统可以作为热管被动控制系统的研究人员和工程师的工具,为每个应用提供更合适的解决方案
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引用次数: 0
Technical-economic evaluation of a portable solar machine of potential use in pumping systems and water purification, through the use of photovoltaic solar technology for non-interconnected areas in Colombia 通过在哥伦比亚非互联地区使用光电太阳能技术,对可能用于抽水系统和水净化的便携式太阳能机进行技术经济评价
Q1 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-02-16 DOI: 10.21533/pen.v11i1.3070
Diego Armando Cartagena Calderon
The purpose of this article is to present the dimensioning of a portable, autonomous solar machine, of potential utility in pumping systems and water purification, through the use of photovoltaic solar technology and innovation to an unsatisfied basic need, such as service drinking water, in areas of the country, where there are inconveniences for access to drinking water and electricity service. The solar machine is innovative, modular, portable, easy to transport and install, sustainable and environmentally friendly, with zero greenhouse gas emissions as it is powered by photovoltaic technology. The solar machine is innovative, modular, portable, easy to transport and install, sustainable and environmentally friendly, with zero greenhouse gas emissions as it is powered by photovoltaic technology and does not use batteries. This portable solar machine substantially reduces the cost of investment, operation and maintenance, by using photovoltaic solar panels and working with direct current, eliminating the use of the conventional electrical power network, inverters, for its operation and can be dimensioned for water. surface water from rivers or reservoirs to the reservoir or pond, the same as for groundwater from wells, for the supply of drinking water, through the improvement, disinfection and sterilization of drinking water, to improve the quality of life of rural communities and secondly measure for use in the agricultural sector, for irrigation, domestic use, livestock (livestock pasture) and other services, for the rural development of the regions in Colombia.
本文的目的是通过使用光伏太阳能技术和创新来满足该国一些地区未满足的基本需求,如服务饮用水,展示便携式、自主太阳能机器的尺寸,该机器在抽水系统和水净化方面具有潜在的实用性,在那里获得饮用水和电力服务存在不便。该太阳能机器具有创新性、模块化、便携性、易于运输和安装、可持续性和环保性,由光伏技术提供动力,温室气体零排放。该太阳能机器具有创新性、模块化、便携性、易于运输和安装、可持续性和环保性,由光伏技术供电,不使用电池,温室气体零排放。这种便携式太阳能机器通过使用光伏太阳能电池板和直流电工作,大大降低了投资、运营和维护成本,消除了传统电网逆变器的使用,并且可以根据水来确定尺寸。从河流或水库到水库或池塘的地表水,与从井中抽取的地下水一样,用于饮用水供应,通过改善、消毒和消毒饮用水,提高农村社区的生活质量,其次是用于农业部门的灌溉、生活用水,畜牧业(畜牧牧场)和其他服务,用于哥伦比亚各地区的农村发展。
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引用次数: 0
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Periodicals of Engineering and Natural Sciences
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