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Why Join? How Civil Society Organizations’ Attributes Signal Congruence and Impact Community Engagement 为什么加入?民间社会组织的属性如何传递共识并影响社区参与
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.27
Simon Hoellerbauer
Abstract Civil society organizations (CSOs) can facilitate collective action. This makes understanding what shapes whether people are likely to engage with CSOs critically important. This paper argues that whether an organization is perceived as congruent – similar to an individual in values – is a key determinant of whether individuals will engage with it. I use a conjoint survey experiment to test how organizational attributes signaling congruence influence respondents’ willingness to attend a hypothetical organization’s meetings. I find that individuals are more likely to choose organizations that are more likely to be congruent with them, except when it comes to funding. These findings imply that an individual’s level of comfort with a CSO matters for engagement; thus, CSOs need to consider how they match to their publics when reaching out to potential joiners. Furthermore, donors seeking to support CSOs need to pay attention to their impact on perceptions of congruence.
摘要民间社会组织可以促进集体行动。这使得了解人们是否有可能参与民间社会组织至关重要。本文认为,一个组织是否被认为是一致的——在价值观上与个人相似——是个人是否会参与其中的关键决定因素。我发现,除了在资金方面,个人更有可能选择与他们更一致的组织。这些发现表明,个人对CSO的舒适程度对参与度很重要;因此,民间社会组织在接触潜在参与者时,需要考虑如何与公众相匹配。此外,寻求支持民间社会组织的捐助者需要注意它们对一致性观念的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Are Politicians More Responsive Towards Men’s or Women’s Service Delivery Requests? A Survey Experiment with Ugandan Politicians 政治家对男性和女性的服务要求反应更积极?对乌干达政治家的调查实验
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.24
SangEun Kim, Kristin Michelitch
Abstract This study examines whether politicians exhibit gender bias in responsiveness to constituents’ requests for public service delivery improvements in Uganda. We leverage an in-person survey experiment conducted with 333 subnational politicians, of which one-third are elected to women’s reserved seats. Politicians hear two constituents request improvements in staff absenteeism in their local school and health clinic and must decide how to allocate a fixed (hypothetical) budget between the two improvements. The voices of the citizens are randomly assigned to be (1) male-school, female-health or (2) female-school, male-health. We find no evidence of gender bias toward men versus women, or toward same-gender constituents. This study expands on the mixed results of prior studies examining gender bias in politician responsiveness (typically over email) by adding a critical new case: a low-income context with women’s reserved seats.
摘要:本研究考察了乌干达政治家在回应选民对改善公共服务提供的要求时是否表现出性别偏见。我们对333名地方政治家进行了面对面的调查实验,其中三分之一的人当选为女性保留席位。政客们听到两名选民要求改善当地学校和健康诊所的员工缺勤情况,必须决定如何在这两项改善之间分配固定(假设)的预算。公民的声音被随机分配为(1)男性学校,女性健康或(2)女性学校,男性健康。我们没有发现男性对女性或对同性选民的性别偏见的证据。这项研究通过增加一个关键的新案例,扩展了之前关于政治家回应(通常是通过电子邮件)性别偏见的研究的混合结果:低收入背景下的女性预留席位。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Persuasion under Confirmation Bias: Theory and Evidence From a Registered Report 确认偏差下的最优说服:来自注册报告的理论和证据
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.21
Love Christensen
Abstract Political actors face a trade-off when they try to influence the beliefs of voters about the effects of policy proposals. They want to sway voters maximally, yet voters may discount predictions that are inconsistent with what they already hold to be true. Should political actors moderate or exaggerate their predictions to maximize persuasion? I extend the Bayesian learning model to account for confirmation bias and show that only under strong confirmation bias are predictions far from the priors of voters self-defeating. I use a preregistered survey experiment to determine whether and how voters discount predictions conditional on the distance between their prior beliefs and the predictions. I find that voters assess predictions far from their prior beliefs as less credible and, consequently, update less. The paper has important implications for strategic communication by showing theoretically and empirically that the prior beliefs of voters constrain political actors.
当政治行为者试图影响选民对政策建议效果的看法时,他们面临着一种权衡。他们希望最大限度地动摇选民,但选民可能会对与他们已经认为正确的预测不一致的预测不以为然。政治演员是否应该缓和或夸大他们的预测以最大限度地说服?我扩展了贝叶斯学习模型来解释确认偏误,并表明只有在强烈的确认偏误下,远离选民先验的预测才会自我挫败。我使用预先登记的调查实验来确定选民是否以及如何根据他们先前的信念与预测之间的距离来对预测进行折扣。我发现,选民对与其先前信念相去甚远的预测的评估可信度较低,因此更新的次数也较少。本文从理论和实证两方面论证了选民的先验信念对政治行为者的制约作用,对战略沟通具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 1
Can Warm Behavior Mitigate the Negative Effect of Unfavorable Governmental Decisions on Citizens’ Trust? 温暖行为能否缓解政府不利决策对公民信任的负面影响?
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.23
Frederik Godt Hansen
Abstract For decades, scholars have discussed how to build greater citizen trust in government. I hypothesize that to increase trust in government, we should consider whether decisions made in bureaucrat–citizen encounters (e.g. applications for welfare benefits) are favorable to citizens. Building on insights from social psychology, I argue that in cases where citizens are presented with unfavorable decisions (e.g. rejection of applications), public employees can mitigate the negative impact on trust in government by appearing warm and friendly in the decision-making process. The argument is tested in a large-scale randomized survey experiment on a representative sample of Danish citizens, where I manipulate decision favorability and warmth. The findings reveal that outcome favorability and warmth strongly influence citizens’ trust in government.
摘要几十年来,学者们一直在讨论如何建立公民对政府的更大信任。我假设,为了增加对政府的信任,我们应该考虑在官僚与公民的接触中做出的决定(例如申请福利)是否对公民有利。基于社会心理学的见解,我认为,在公民面临不利决定(例如拒绝申请)的情况下,公职人员可以通过在决策过程中表现出热情友好来减轻对政府信任的负面影响。这一论点在一项针对丹麦公民代表性样本的大规模随机调查实验中得到了检验,我在实验中操纵了决策的好感度和热情度。研究结果表明,结果的好感度和温暖度强烈影响公民对政府的信任。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Unsubstantiated Claims of Voter Fraud on Confidence in Elections 未经证实的选民舞弊指控对选举信心的影响
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-28 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.18
N. Berlinski, M. Doyle, A. Guess, Gabrielle Levy, Benjamin A. Lyons, J. Montgomery, B. Nyhan, Jason Reifler
Abstract Political elites sometimes seek to delegitimize election results using unsubstantiated claims of fraud. Most recently, Donald Trump sought to overturn his loss in the 2020 US presidential election by falsely alleging widespread fraud. Our study provides new evidence demonstrating the corrosive effect of fraud claims like these on trust in the election system. Using a nationwide survey experiment conducted after the 2018 midterm elections – a time when many prominent Republicans also made unsubstantiated fraud claims – we show that exposure to claims of voter fraud reduces confidence in electoral integrity, though not support for democracy itself. The effects are concentrated among Republicans and Trump approvers. Worryingly, corrective messages from mainstream sources do not measurably reduce the damage these accusations inflict. These results suggest that unsubstantiated voter-fraud claims undermine confidence in elections, particularly when the claims are politically congenial, and that their effects cannot easily be mitigated by fact-checking.
摘要政治精英有时试图利用未经证实的欺诈指控来剥夺选举结果的合法性。最近,唐纳德·特朗普试图通过谎称普遍存在欺诈行为来推翻他在2020年美国总统大选中的失利。我们的研究提供了新的证据,证明了此类欺诈指控对选举制度信任的腐蚀性影响。通过在2018年中期选举后进行的一项全国性调查实验,我们发现,暴露在选民欺诈指控中会降低人们对选举诚信的信心,尽管这并不是对民主本身的支持。影响集中在共和党人和特朗普的支持者中。令人担忧的是,来自主流来源的纠正信息并不能显著减少这些指控造成的损害。这些结果表明,未经证实的选民欺诈指控破坏了人们对选举的信心,尤其是当这些指控在政治上一致时,而且事实核查无法轻易减轻其影响。
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引用次数: 38
Estimating the Persistence of Party Cue Influence in a Panel Survey Experiment 在面板调查实验中估计政党线索影响的持久性
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-23 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.22
Ben M. Tappin, Luke B. Hewitt
Abstract Perhaps hundreds of survey experiments have shown that political party cues influence people’s policy opinions. However, we know little about the persistence of this influence: is it a transient priming effect, dissipating moments after the survey is over, or does influence persist for longer, indicating learning? We report the results of a panel survey experiment in which US adults were randomly exposed to party cues on five contemporary US policy issues in an initial survey and gave their opinions. A follow-up survey 3 days later polled their opinions again. We find that the influence of the party cues persists at ∼50% its original magnitude at follow-up. Notably, our design rules out that people simply remembered how they previously answered. Our findings have implications for understanding the scope and mechanism of party cue influence as it occurs in the real world and provide a benchmark for future research on this topic.
也许数以百计的调查实验已经表明,政党线索会影响人们的政策观点。然而,我们对这种影响的持久性知之甚少:它是一种短暂的启动效应,在调查结束后瞬间消散,还是影响持续更长时间,表明学习?我们报告了一项小组调查实验的结果,在这项实验中,在一项初步调查中,美国成年人随机接触到有关五个当代美国政策问题的派对线索,并给出了他们的意见。3天后又进行了一次后续调查,再次征求了他们的意见。我们发现,在后续研究中,派对线索的影响仍然保持在原来的50%左右。值得注意的是,我们的设计排除了人们只是记住他们之前的回答。我们的研究结果对理解现实世界中派对线索影响的范围和机制具有启示意义,并为未来对这一主题的研究提供了基准。
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引用次数: 2
The Face of the Problem: How Subordinates Shield Executives from Blame 直面问题:下属如何保护主管不受指责
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-16 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.16
Sarah E. Croco, J. McDonald, Candace Turitto
Abstract Though avoiding blame is often a goal of elected officials, there are relatively few empirical examinations of how citizens assign blame during controversies. We are particularly interested in how this process works when an executive has been caught in a lie. Using two survey experiments, we examine whether subordinates can shield executives when they act as the face of a crisis. We first leverage a real-life situation involving the family separation crisis at the US–Mexico border in 2018. Respondents who read that Donald Trump falsely claimed he could not end the practice of family separation disapprove of his dishonesty. Yet this cost disappears when Trump’s then-Secretary of Homeland Security, Kirstjen Nielsen, is the primary official discussed in news stories. We then replicate these findings in a fictional scenario involving a city mayor, showing that the mayor is partially shielded from negative appraisals when the city manager lies on his behalf.
摘要尽管避免指责通常是民选官员的目标,但对公民在争议中如何指责的实证研究相对较少。我们特别感兴趣的是,当一位高管陷入谎言时,这个过程是如何运作的。通过两项调查实验,我们考察了下属在高管面临危机时是否能保护他们。我们首先利用了2018年美墨边境家庭分离危机的真实情况。读到唐纳德·特朗普谎称他无法结束家庭分离的做法的受访者不赞成他的不诚实。然而,当特朗普当时的国土安全部长Kirstjen Nielsen成为新闻报道中讨论的主要官员时,这种成本就消失了。然后,我们在一个涉及市长的虚构场景中复制了这些发现,表明当城市经理代表市长撒谎时,市长在一定程度上免受负面评价。
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引用次数: 0
Education and Social Capital – Corrigendum 教育与社会资本——勘误表
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.14
B. Apfeld, E. Coman, J. Gerring, S. Jessee
In the original publication of Apfeld et al (2021), a coding mistake caused the results plotted in Figure 4, which separately estimates the effect of university attendance on social capital by respondents’ year of high school graduation, to be incorrect. The corrected figure appears below. The corrected results, while somewhat different, do not change the overall inconclusive nature of these findings. As stated in the original article, it would appear that once the data are broken into subsamples there is inadequate power to estimate each subgroup effect precisely enough to learn which are larger and which are smaller. Note that the point estimates are not generally centered inside the confidence intervals because the confidence intervals use a robust bias correction while the point estimates do not, both following the standard options in the function used for these analyses (see original paper for further description).
在Apfeld et al(2021)的原始出版物中,编码错误导致图4中绘制的结果不正确,图4通过被调查对象的高中毕业年份单独估计了大学入学率对社会资本的影响。更正后的数字如下所示。修正后的结果虽然有些不同,但并没有改变这些发现的总体不确定性。正如在最初的文章中所述,一旦数据被分解成子样本,就没有足够的能力来准确地估计每个子组的影响,以了解哪些更大,哪些更小。请注意,点估计通常不会集中在置信区间内,因为置信区间使用稳健的偏差校正,而点估计则不会,两者都遵循用于这些分析的函数中的标准选项(参见原始论文以获得进一步描述)。
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引用次数: 0
Labor Market Volatility, Gender, and Trade Preferences 劳动力市场波动、性别和贸易偏好
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-28 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.9
Ryan Brutger, Alexandra Guisinger
Abstract What explains divides in the public’s support for trade protection? Traditional economic arguments primarily focus on individuals’ expectations for increased or decreased wages in the face of greater economic openness, yet studies testing such wage-based concerns identify a different divide as well: even after accounting for wage effects, women are typically more supportive of trade protection. We argue that trade-induced employment volatility and the resulting concerns for employment stability are overlooked factors that help explain the gender divide in attitudes. Due to both structural discrimination and societal norms, we theorize that working women are more responsive to the threat of trade-related employment instability than male counterparts. Using an experiment fielded on national samples in the USA and Canada, we find that most respondents have weak reactions to volatility, but volatility has a significant effect on women who are the most vulnerable to trade’s disruptive effects – those working in import-competing industries and those with limited education.
如何解释公众对贸易保护的支持存在分歧?传统的经济学观点主要关注个人在面对更大的经济开放时对工资增加或减少的期望,然而,测试这种基于工资的担忧的研究也发现了一个不同的分歧:即使考虑到工资影响,女性通常更支持贸易保护。我们认为,贸易导致的就业波动和由此产生的对就业稳定的担忧是被忽视的因素,有助于解释态度上的性别差异。由于结构性歧视和社会规范,我们认为职业女性比男性更容易应对与贸易相关的就业不稳定威胁。通过对美国和加拿大的国家样本进行的实验,我们发现大多数受访者对波动的反应较弱,但波动对最容易受到贸易破坏性影响的女性——那些在进口竞争行业工作的女性和受教育程度有限的女性——有显著影响。
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引用次数: 6
Individualized Text Messages about Public Services Fail to Sway Voters: Evidence from a Field Experiment on Ugandan Elections 关于公共服务的个性化短信无法动摇选民:来自乌干达选举实地实验的证据
IF 3.6 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-05-20 DOI: 10.1017/XPS.2021.15
Ryan S. Jablonski, Mark T. Buntaine, D. Nielson, Paula M. Pickering
Abstract Mobile communication technologies can provide citizens access to information that is tailored to their specific circumstances. Such technologies may therefore increase citizens’ ability to vote in line with their interests and hold politicians accountable. In a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Uganda (n = 16,083), we investigated whether citizens who receive private, timely, and individualized text messages by mobile phone about public services in their community punished or rewarded incumbents in local elections in line with the information. Respondents claimed to find the messages valuable and there is evidence that they briefly updated their beliefs based on the messages; however, the treatment did not cause increased votes for incumbents where public services were better than expected nor decreased votes where public services were worse than anticipated. The considerable knowledge gaps among citizens identified in this study indicate potential for communication technologies to effectively share civic information. Yet the findings imply that when the attribution of public service outcomes is difficult, even individualized information is unlikely to affect voting behavior.
移动通信技术可以为公民提供适合其具体情况的信息。因此,这些技术可能会提高公民根据自己的利益进行投票的能力,并让政治家承担责任。在乌干达进行的一项大规模随机对照试验中(n = 16083),我们调查了通过手机收到有关社区公共服务的私人、及时和个性化短信的公民是否会根据这些信息惩罚或奖励当地选举中的在职者。被调查者声称发现这些信息很有价值,有证据表明他们根据这些信息短暂地更新了自己的信念;然而,在公共服务比预期好时,这种待遇并没有使现任者的选票增加,也没有使公共服务比预期差时的选票减少。本研究发现,公民之间存在相当大的知识差距,这表明通信技术具有有效共享公民信息的潜力。然而,研究结果表明,当公共服务结果难以归因时,即使是个性化的信息也不太可能影响投票行为。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Journal of Experimental Political Science
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