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Churchill's Pari Passu
Pub Date : 2016-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2846778
Pablo Triana
The conventional interpretation of the pari passu clause found in sovereign debt contracts depends on whether the claim is secured or unsecured. We are told that ratable payments pari passus would be reserved for secured debts only (the idea being that each creditor should get an equally proportional share of the collateral pie). Unsecured debt transactions should not make such a promise of payments equality, would go the argument, with the proper meaning of pari passu in such context being just a pledge not to legally subordinate among similarly-situated creditors. I have found a 1920s example of a pro-rata payments pari passu promise for unsecured sovereign debt. This high-profile case (a critical component of the crucial post-World War I intergovernmental debt restructuring negotiations) can be added to the ever growing list of samples of sovereign ratable payments pari passus that have been found out there. A veritable flood of ratability (both from ancient and current sources) that contrasts sharply with the current efforts by many leading academics, lawyers, policymakers, and financiers to have ratable payments erased from the sovereign debt land. The 1920s pari passu described here is relevant not only due to the unsecured nature of the debt (we had been told that such pari passu was not supposed to exist), but also because it allows us to muse about the presence of the clause in pure sovereign-on-sovereign debt transactions. We wonder: does sovereign-on-sovereign lending carry pari passu clauses? what kind of parity would sovereign creditors enjoy amongst themselves? should the meaning and interpretation of pari passu differ, just because of the differing nature of the lenders? While this last question is not definitively tackled, it seems clear that the 1920s pari passu (authored by none other than Winston Churchill) can provide us with important teachings about the mysterious two Latin words. Above all, and when combined with other similar evidence, the main conclusion may be that the chimerical unsecured ratable payments pari passu, the Unicorn, the Area 51, the Loch Ness Monster of the sovereign debt markets, may have been much more real than presumed.
主权债务合同中对同等权益条款的传统解释取决于债权是有担保的还是无担保的。我们被告知,应按比例缴纳的税款将仅用于担保债务(其理念是,每个债权人都应获得同等比例的抵押品蛋糕份额)。有人会辩称,无担保债务交易不应做出支付平等的承诺,在这种情况下,同等权益的正确含义只是保证不在法律上从属于处境类似的债权人。我发现了一个20世纪20年代无担保主权债务按比例支付的例子。这个备受瞩目的案例(第一次世界大战后重要的政府间债务重组谈判的一个关键组成部分)可以被添加到已经发现的不断增长的主权按债务比例支付的样本清单中。这是一场名副其实的波动性洪流(既有来自古代的,也有来自现在的),与目前许多知名学者、律师、政策制定者和金融家试图从主权债务土地上抹去应评税支付的努力形成鲜明对比。这里所描述的20世纪20年代的同等权益是相关的,不仅是因为债务的无担保性质(我们被告知这种同等权益不应该存在),还因为它让我们思考在纯粹的主权对主权债务交易中该条款的存在。我们想知道:主权对主权的贷款是否带有同等权益条款?主权债权人之间将享有什么样的平等?仅仅因为贷款人的性质不同,对同等权益的含义和解释就应该有所不同吗?虽然最后一个问题并没有得到明确的解决,但似乎很明显,20世纪20年代的pari passu(作者不是别人,正是温斯顿·丘吉尔)可以为我们提供有关这两个神秘拉丁单词的重要启示。最重要的是,当与其他类似证据结合起来时,主要结论可能是,虚幻的无担保按价支付、独角兽、51区、主权债务市场的尼斯湖水怪,可能比人们想象的要真实得多。
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引用次数: 0
De Viti De Marco vs. Ricardo on Public Debt: Self Extinction or Default? 德·维蒂·德·马尔科与李嘉图之公共债务:自我消亡还是违约?
Pub Date : 2016-05-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2776984
G. Eusepi, R. Wagner
The most prominent Italian theorist of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Antonio de Viti de Marco, accepted David Ricardo’s proposition that an extraordinary tax and a public loan are equivalent. Despite this common point of analytical departure, their theories of public debt diverged sharply. In this divergence, moreover, lies a fundamental gulf between two distinct analytical schemes for connecting the micro and macro levels of analysis. Ricardo treated macro aggregates as analytical primitives, with individual action being induced from those aggregates. In sharp contrast, de Viti took individual variables as primitive, with aggregate conditions being induced from interaction among those individual variables. Within de Viti’s framework of a fully cooperative state, public debt would be self-extinguishing. De Viti also recognized that democracies were never exclusively cooperative, as continuing competition among elites striving for power would enable politically dominant groups to pass cost onto the remainder of society, thereby operating as a de facto form of default.
19世纪末和20世纪初最著名的意大利理论家安东尼奥·德·维蒂·德·马可(Antonio de Viti de Marco)接受了大卫·李嘉图(David Ricardo)的主张,即特别税收和公共贷款是等价的。尽管分析出发点相同,但他们对公共债务的理论却大相径庭。此外,在这种分歧中,存在着连接微观和宏观分析水平的两种截然不同的分析方案之间的根本鸿沟。李嘉图将宏观集合视为分析原语,个体行为由这些集合诱导。与之形成鲜明对比的是,de Viti将个体变量视为原始变量,并通过这些个体变量之间的相互作用诱导出聚合条件。在德维提提出的一个完全合作的国家框架内,公共债务将会自我熄灭。德·维提还认识到,民主从来不是完全合作的,因为精英们争夺权力的持续竞争将使政治上占主导地位的群体把成本转嫁给社会的其余部分,从而作为一种事实上的违约形式运作。
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引用次数: 3
External Debt and International Trade: Another Mismatch 外债与国际贸易:另一种错配
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.7551/mitpress/10939.003.0011
Eiji Fujii
Currency mismatch makes a debtor country suffer from domestic depreciation by magnifying the burden of its external debt. Because external debt can be repaid by exporting more than importing, a crucial channel for inducing recovery is net exports. However, the argument that domestic depreciation correspondingly boosts net exports is not warranted if currency compositions differ substantially between debt and trade. This study examines the association between the debt revaluation and trade competitiveness gain effects of exchange rate fluctuations for middle- and low-income countries. The empirical results suggest that currency-compositional discord between debt and trade has significant welfare implications.
货币错配会放大债务国的外债负担,从而使债务国遭受国内贬值之苦。由于外债可以通过出口多于进口来偿还,因此诱导复苏的一个关键渠道是净出口。然而,如果债务和贸易之间的货币构成存在巨大差异,那么国内贬值相应促进净出口的论点就没有根据。本研究考察了中低收入国家的债务重估与汇率波动的贸易竞争力增益效应之间的关系。实证结果表明,债务和贸易之间的货币构成不协调具有显著的福利影响。
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引用次数: 5
The Political Economy of Municipal Amalgamation - Evidence of Common Pool Effects and Local Public Debt 市政合并的政治经济学——公共资金池效应与地方公共债务的证据
Pub Date : 2015-12-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2727112
Benedikt S. L. Fritz, Lars P. Feld
This paper investigates the political economy of after merger effects of the large scale municipal amalgamations in the German state of Baden-Wurttemberg in the early 1970s. By exploiting the huge variance in the amalgamation process in terms of number of participating municipalities, municipality size or amalgamation strategy we identify considerable common pool effects. Amalgamations can create a common pool, as the former independent municipalities have now access to more resources. Common pool exploitation is stronger the more municipalities participate and when municipalities amalgamate by annexation. Additionally, voter involvement is lower in amalgamated municipalities.
本文研究了20世纪70年代初德国巴登-符腾堡州大规模市政合并后的政治经济学效应。通过利用在合并过程中的巨大差异,在参与市政当局的数量,市政规模或合并策略方面,我们确定了相当大的共同池效应。合并可以创建一个公共池,因为以前独立的市政当局现在可以获得更多的资源。城市参与越多,当城市通过兼并合并时,公共池的开发就越强。此外,合并市镇的选民参与度较低。
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引用次数: 37
The Greek Public Debt Problem 希腊公共债务问题
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2781682
M. Nikiforos, D. Papadimitriou, G. Zezza
This paper examines the issue of the Greek public debt from different perspectives. We provide a historical discussion of the accumulation of Greece's public debt since the 1960s and the role of public debt in the recent crisis. We show that the austerity imposed since 2010 has been unsuccessful in stabilizing the debt while at the same time taking a heavy toll on the Greek economy and society. The experience of the last six years shows that the country's public debt is clearly unsustainable, and therefore a bold restructuring is needed. An insistence on the current policies is not justifiable either on pragmatic or on moral or any other grounds. The experience of Germany in the early post-World War II period provides some useful hints for the way forward. A solution to the Greek public debt problem is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the solution of the Greek and wider European crisis. A broader agenda that deals with the malaises of the Greek economy and the structural imbalances of the eurozone is of vital importance.
本文从不同的角度考察了希腊公共债务问题。我们对希腊自20世纪60年代以来的公共债务积累以及公共债务在最近危机中的作用进行了历史讨论。我们表明,自2010年以来实施的紧缩政策未能稳定债务,同时对希腊经济和社会造成了沉重打击。过去六年的经验表明,该国的公共债务显然是不可持续的,因此需要进行大胆的重组。坚持当前的政策,无论从实用主义还是道德或任何其他理由来看,都是站不住脚的。德国在二战后初期的经历为未来的道路提供了一些有用的提示。解决希腊公共债务问题是解决希腊和更广泛的欧洲危机的必要条件,但不是充分条件。解决希腊经济困境和欧元区结构性失衡的更广泛议程至关重要。
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引用次数: 22
Religiosity and the Cost of Debt 宗教信仰与债务成本
Pub Date : 2015-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/J.JBANKFIN.2016.06.005
Hanwen Chen, H. Huang, Gerald J. Lobo, Chong Wang
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引用次数: 82
Political-Ideological Circumstances and Local Authorities’ Debt: Evidence From Portuguese Municipalities 政治意识形态环境与地方政府债务:来自葡萄牙市政当局的证据
Pub Date : 2015-06-30 DOI: 10.5709/ce.1897-9254.164
N. Ribeiro, Susana Jorge
The objective of this research is to analyze whether the political-ideological situation of municipalities affects their debt level, considering evidence from Portugal for the period 2004-2013. A static panel data model is applied, incorporating factors such as political ideology, political-electoral cycle, governance format, coincidence of the political parties between Local Executive and Local Assembly and coincidence of the political parties between the Local Executive and Central Government. An additional variable to control the effects of the economic crisis between 2008 and 2010 is also considered. Based on the assumptions of the public choice theory, findings show a statistically significant relationship for the political-electoral cycle, allowing the conclusion that, given the evidence from Portuguese municipalities, debt increases in election years. Nevertheless, this is the only factor in the political-ideological circumstances that was found to be relevant in its effect on local authorities’ debt levels. It is also clear that the financial crisis in the period 2008-2010 likewise had a positive impact.The paper contributes to the strengthening of the debate on the association between municipalities’ political circumstances and debt, namely, in regards to strategic (electoral) debt cycles in local government.
本研究的目的是分析市政当局的政治意识形态状况是否影响其债务水平,考虑到2004-2013年期间葡萄牙的证据。采用静态面板数据模型,将政治意识形态、政治选举周期、治理形式、地方行政机构与地方议会之间的政党重合、地方行政机构与中央政府之间的政党重合等因素纳入模型。还考虑了控制2008年至2010年经济危机影响的附加变量。基于公共选择理论的假设,研究结果显示政治-选举周期之间存在统计学上显著的关系,从而得出结论,根据葡萄牙市政当局的证据,债务在选举年增加。然而,这是政治-意识形态环境中被发现与地方当局债务水平的影响有关的唯一因素。同样明显的是,2008年至2010年期间的金融危机也产生了积极影响。本文有助于加强关于市政政治环境与债务之间关系的辩论,即关于地方政府战略(选举)债务周期的辩论。
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引用次数: 16
Regulated Funds, Emerging Markets, and Financial Stability 监管基金、新兴市场和金融稳定
Pub Date : 2015-04-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2592260
Chris Plantier
Regulated fund holdings of emerging market stocks and bonds have grown significantly in the past decade. This growth is part of a broader trend of investors seeking greater exposure to emerging markets, and these flows have supported strong growth in emerging economies. From 2010 to 2014, emerging market economies received cumulative gross portfolio capital flows of $1.4 trillion. A small fraction of those inflows — less than $200 billion — came from regulated funds. New empirical results in this report suggest that there are three main reasons that regulated fund are unlikely to pose systemic risk to emerging markets. First, regulated fund holdings of emerging market securities remain a small portion of the total value of the stocks and bonds of emerging market countries. Second, while regulated funds represent a sizable part of the foreign investor base in emerging market countries, they are a stable investor base. Third, regulated fund holdings are diversified across a wide number of emerging economies, which limits the effects of their portfolio transactions on any particular country. In monthly data, returns on emerging market securities are explained by factors other than funds’ net purchases of emerging market stocks and bonds — most significantly by capital flows from other (non-fund) foreign investors. Also, in weekly data, regulated funds’ net purchases of emerging market securities do not drive returns. Weekly data show that while net purchases respond with a lag to returns on emerging market securities, those purchases do not have a persistent effect on future returns.
过去10年,受监管的基金持有的新兴市场股票和债券大幅增长。这种增长是投资者寻求扩大对新兴市场敞口的更广泛趋势的一部分,这些流动支持了新兴经济体的强劲增长。从2010年到2014年,新兴市场经济体累计获得了1.4万亿美元的投资组合资本流动总额。这些资金流入中的一小部分——不到2000亿美元——来自受监管的基金。本报告的新实证结果表明,受监管的基金不太可能对新兴市场构成系统性风险,主要有三个原因。首先,受监管的基金持有的新兴市场证券在新兴市场国家的股票和债券总价值中所占比例仍然很小。其次,尽管受监管的基金在新兴市场国家的外国投资者群体中占相当大的一部分,但它们是一个稳定的投资者群体。第三,受监管的基金在众多新兴经济体中分散持有,这限制了它们的投资组合交易对任何特定国家的影响。在月度数据中,新兴市场证券的回报是由基金净购买新兴市场股票和债券以外的因素解释的——最重要的是来自其他(非基金)外国投资者的资本流动。此外,每周数据显示,受监管基金对新兴市场证券的净买入并未推动回报。每周数据显示,尽管净买入对新兴市场证券回报的反应滞后,但这些买入对未来回报的影响并不持久。
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引用次数: 7
Government Debt and Economic Growth. The Case of Italy. 政府债务与经济增长。意大利案例。
Pub Date : 2015-02-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2564439
M. Georgiou
In the present paper an empirical analysis will point out that Government Debt as a percentage of GDP has a negative impact on the Italian economy regarding economic growth. Data are taken from Eurostat. The elaboration of these panel data is made feasible by means of the Eviews software package.
在本文中,实证分析将指出,政府债务占GDP的百分比对意大利经济的经济增长有负面影响。数据来自欧盟统计局。通过Eviews软件包,使这些面板数据的细化成为可能。
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引用次数: 2
The Logic (or Illogic) of China's Local Government Debts Out of Control - Law, Governance or Other Perspectives 中国地方政府债务失控的逻辑(或非逻辑)——法律、治理或其他视角
Pub Date : 2015-01-12 DOI: 10.4337/9781784716776.00015
Shen Wei
Local government debts in China come into the global spotlight due to its massive volume. This article is primarily concerned with the deep causes of and potential solutions to local government debts in China. An attempt is made to understand the causes of local government debts through various dynamic elements of China’s public and fiscal finance, including revenue collection, allocation of government responsibility, fiscal expenditure and fiscal transfer within the central and local governments. Local governments’ spending patterns reveal a deep and fundamental flaw in the overall governance structure, which necessitates a more comprehensive reform tackling the root problems underlying the local government debt crisis in China.
中国地方政府债务因其庞大的规模而成为全球关注的焦点。本文主要探讨中国地方政府债务产生的深层原因及解决办法。试图通过中国公共财政和财政财政的各种动态要素,包括中央和地方政府的收入征收、政府责任分配、财政支出和财政转移,来理解地方政府债务的成因。地方政府支出模式揭示了整体治理结构的深层次和根本性缺陷,需要进行更全面的改革,以解决中国地方政府债务危机的根源问题。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
PSN: Debt (Topic)
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