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International Experience of Taxation of Crypto-assets 加密资产征税的国际经验
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-1-53-84
D. Kochergin, N. Pokrovskaia
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引用次数: 4
Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in Russian Economy 估算俄罗斯经济中的财政乘数
Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2020-24-2-268-294
Ilya Zyablitskiy
The paper estimates fiscal multipliers based on models of structural vector autoregression, identified by sign and narrative restrictions. Narrative restrictions enhanced the identification procedure, having narrowed the set of models in line with the fiscal multipliers’ theoretical inference. The models that were predominantly associated with positive impulse responses of output to government expenditures shocks and negative impulse responses to government re­venues shocks were chosen. Narrative sign restrictions only slightly changed the median impulse responses however wiped off outlier models induced by the randomicity of sign restrictions identification. This fostered the more accurate intervals of impulse responses and improved the estimates. In result, point estimate of revenue multiplier is lower in absolute value (–0,38) than the point estimate of expenditure multiplier (0,42). Nevertheless, taking into account, the multiplier of oil and gas revenues is greater than non-oil and gas revenues. Economic expenditures have the greatest impact on GDP during the first year whereas the least have social expenditures. The contribution of national projects to GDP was evaluated using estimated multipliers given the near-2019 economic conditions. It turned out to be slightly positive in 2019 (0,4%), then it grows and raises GDP on 4,0% in 2024 against the scenario with the absence of national projects. Thus, the average uplift to GDP growth rates is 0,67 p.p.
本文基于结构向量自回归模型估计财政乘数,由符号和叙事限制识别。叙事限制强化了识别程序,缩小了符合财政乘数理论推断的模型集。选择的模型主要与产出对政府支出冲击的正脉冲响应和政府收入冲击的负脉冲响应相关。叙述性符号限制仅轻微改变了中位数脉冲响应,但消除了由符号限制识别的随机性引起的离群模型。这促进了脉冲响应的更准确的间隔,并改进了估计。结果,收入乘数点估计的绝对值(- 0,38)低于支出乘数点估计的绝对值(0,42)。然而,考虑到石油和天然气收入的乘数大于非石油和天然气收入。在第一年,经济支出对GDP的影响最大,而社会支出对GDP的影响最小。考虑到近2019年的经济状况,使用估计的乘数来评估国家项目对GDP的贡献。在2019年,它被证明是略微正的(0.4%),然后在没有国家项目的情况下,它在2024年增长并将GDP提高4%。因此,GDP增长率的平均提升幅度为0.67个百分点。
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引用次数: 3
Socio-economic Efficiency of the Leasing in Renewable Energy 可再生能源租赁的社会经济效率
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-238-263
V. Gazman
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引用次数: 2
Value Relevance of Government Ownership of Equity (Evidence from Russian Listed Companies) 政府股权的价值相关性(来自俄罗斯上市公司的证据)
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-314-330
A. Maga, E. Baranova, Zhargal Tumunbayarova
The impact of government ownership of a firm’s equity has generated much discussion in finance, economics, and politics. Extant literature provides evidence of both positive and negative effect of government ownership on the market value of firms with multiple reasons in favor of both effects. There has also been re search on how such effects may differ in different markets. This paper aims to explore value-relevance in Russian financial markets. We are exploring the relationship between government ownership of a firm’s equity on its market value in Russia with the view of answering the research question of how investors in Russia perceive the fact and degree of government ownership on equity measured through the market value of equity. We are using a sample of 159 Russian listed companies to identify relationships between market value and government ownership of equity. Previous studies support a positive relationship between such variables, however evidence from Russian listed firms proves otherwise. We find little statistically significant evidence of such association in the market in general, how ever the industry effect proved to be significant; we find that government control is severely penalized in manufacturing, while rewarded in service sectors; this effect also depends on the concentration of government ownership. This research con­nects to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).
政府拥有公司股权的影响在金融、经济和政治领域引发了许多讨论。现有文献提供了政府所有权对企业市场价值的正面和负面影响的证据,并且有多种原因支持这两种影响。也有研究表明,在不同的市场中,这种影响可能会有所不同。本文旨在探讨俄罗斯金融市场的价值相关性。我们正在探索俄罗斯政府对公司股权的所有权与其市场价值之间的关系,以回答俄罗斯投资者如何感知通过股权市场价值衡量的政府对股权的所有权事实和程度的研究问题。我们使用159家俄罗斯上市公司的样本来确定市场价值与政府股权之间的关系。先前的研究支持这些变量之间的正相关关系,然而来自俄罗斯上市公司的证据证明并非如此。我们在一般市场中发现很少有统计上显著的证据表明这种关联,无论行业效应如何证明是显著的;我们发现,政府控制在制造业受到严重惩罚,而在服务业受到奖励;这种效应还取决于政府所有权的集中程度。本研究与有效市场假说(EMH)有关。
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引用次数: 0
A Theoretical Approach and a Numerical Method for Finding a Quasi-Optimal Solution to a Nonlinear High-Dimensional Discrete Problem 求非线性高维离散问题准最优解的理论方法和数值方法
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-465-482
M. Gorskiy, GK Rest-Group
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引用次数: 2
Why Are Some Theories Not Recognized, While Others Are Succesful? «Meritorious Paternalism» of R. Musgrave and «Libertarian Paternalism» of R. Thaler 为什么有些理论不被认可,而另一些却很成功?马斯格雷夫的《值得表扬的家长制》和塞勒的《自由意志家长制》
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-3-345-364
A. Rubinstein
The article considers two theories that are half a century apart from each other, justifying state intervention in market relations – Richard Musgrave's «Theory of Meritorious Goods» and Richard Thaler's «Libertarian Paternalism». Within the framework of a comparative metho­dological study, the sources and prerequisites of these theoretical constructions, the design of state intervention characteristic of each of them, as well as criticism of the meritorious and li­bertarian paternalism, are discussed. The thesis that both theories are based on the same initial assumptions is substantiated, they assume the same goals of state intervention and the conclusion is formulated – in these theories there is more in common than different. They are distinguished only by the institutional design of «pushing»: in one case, it is about creating economic incentives for the right individual choice, in the other – the manipulation of the «default option», which uses an arsenal of psychological tools. It is shown that with all the novelty, «new paternalism» is, in fact, a «new meritorics», based not only on the assumption of irrationality of individuals, but its psychological explanation, created by behavioral economists and which has become part of the mainstream, which determines the answer to the question of article. At the same time, this answer does not create a holistic picture, and the negative connotation of paternalism is still preserved in economic science. The article formulates an additional consideration, revealing another side of the success of libertarian paternalism: the «language game», inherent in Musgrave’s theory was outdated in the early 1950s, and, therefore, this theory was among the «forgotten» ones, and the concept of Thaler and his colleagues corresponds to the new «language game», the key elements of which are the word «liberalism» and speech constructions, corresponding to the modern language and terminology of the mainstream of economic theory.
这篇文章考虑了两个相距半个世纪的理论,为国家干预市场关系辩护——理查德·马斯格雷夫的《功绩商品理论》和理查德·塞勒的《自由意志家长制》。在比较方法论研究的框架内,讨论了这些理论建构的来源和先决条件,每个理论建构的国家干预特征的设计,以及对功绩和自由主义家长制的批评。这两种理论都基于相同的初始假设的论点得到了证实,它们假设了相同的国家干预目标,并得出了结论——在这些理论中,共同点多于不同点。它们的区别只在于“推动”的制度设计:在一种情况下,它是关于为正确的个人选择创造经济激励,在另一种情况下-操纵“默认选项”,它使用了一系列心理学工具。文章表明,尽管“新家长制”具有种种新奇之处,但它实际上是一种“新功绩论”,它不仅基于对个人非理性的假设,而且基于行为经济学家创造的对其的心理学解释,并已成为决定文章问题答案的主流的一部分。与此同时,这个答案并没有创造一个全面的图景,家长制的负面内涵仍然保留在经济科学中。这篇文章提出了一个额外的考虑,揭示了自由意志家长制成功的另一面:马斯格雷夫理论中固有的“语言游戏”在20世纪50年代早期已经过时,因此,这一理论是“被遗忘”的理论之一,而塞勒及其同事的概念对应于新的“语言游戏”,其关键要素是“自由主义”一词和话语结构,与主流经济理论的现代语言和术语相对应。
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引用次数: 2
Modeling the Probability of Credit Default of Clients of Microfinance Organizations: The Case of One MFI 小额信贷机构客户信用违约概率建模:以一家小额信贷机构为例
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-497-523
K. Polyakov, Liudmila Zhukova
Microfinance organizations have become widespread in the crisis years, issuing microloans (up to 100000 rubles) at high interest rates almost without documents. Today, the Central Bank of Russia actively regulates this market, more and more tightening requirements, limiting rates and pennies on loans. This necessitates the formation of a new strategy for assessing the risk of non-repayment of a loan or loan, based on the prevention of delinquency on the part of customers. To do this, first, it is necessary to obtain more informative data about customers, without complicating the relationship with them. Secondly, it is necessary to have a good understanding of the possibilities of certain methods of classification in solving various problems of evaluating potential customers. The authors of this study analyze the importance for the clients classification quality of those indicators that are traditionally collected by MFIs, as well as the importance of some new indicators based on data from social networks. In this case, the importance of indicators is interpreted in the context of specific classification algorithms (methods).To model credit default (delay of more than 30 days), the authors use several algorithms for constructing classification trees – CART and C 4.5 algorithms, logistic regression and Random Forest algorithm. Modeling is carried out based on a sample of customer profiles of real MFI. Ambiguous results were obtained. Depending on the formulation of the problem of classification of customers have advantage different algorithms descriptive analysis (CART, C4.5, Logit). At the same time, as you might expect, the non-interpreted predictive algorithm “Random Forest” provides the best quality of forecasts. According to the results of the analysis, it was revealed that the credit history of the borrower, as well as his age, is of great importance for the classification of MFI clients. Gender had no impact on the classification results. In addition, data from social networks turned out to be unimportant.
小额信贷组织在危机年代变得普遍,几乎没有文件就以高利率发放小额贷款(最高10万卢布)。今天,俄罗斯中央银行积极监管这个市场,越来越严格的要求,限制利率和贷款利率。这就需要在防止客户违约的基础上,制定一项评估不偿还贷款或贷款风险的新战略。要做到这一点,首先,有必要在不使与客户的关系复杂化的情况下获得有关客户的更多信息数据。其次,有必要很好地了解某些分类方法在解决评估潜在客户的各种问题中的可能性。本研究的作者分析了传统上由小额信贷机构收集的指标对客户分类质量的重要性,以及基于社交网络数据的一些新指标的重要性。在这种情况下,指标的重要性是在具体的分类算法(方法)的背景下解释的。为了对信用违约(延迟超过30天)进行建模,作者使用了几种算法来构建分类树——CART和c4.5算法、逻辑回归和随机森林算法。以实际小额信贷机构的客户资料为样本进行建模。得到了模棱两可的结果。根据问题的制定对客户分类有不同优势的描述性分析算法(CART, C4.5, Logit)。与此同时,正如你所期望的那样,非解释预测算法“随机森林”提供了最好的预测质量。根据分析结果,借款人的信用记录以及年龄对于小额信贷机构客户的分类非常重要。性别对分类结果无影响。此外,来自社交网络的数据被证明是不重要的。
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引用次数: 0
On the Impact of News Tonality in International Media on the Russian Ruble Exchange Rate: Textual Analysis 国际媒体新闻调性对俄罗斯卢布汇率的影响:文本分析
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-2-264-289
D. Afanasyev, Jsc Greenatom, E. Fedorova, O. Rogov
Economic, technological, ecological changes significantly adjust structure of power. Based on a regression analysis on 215 projects, solar and wind energy is defined of density of the relationship between factors influencing the investment (construction time and power stations, the number of households, that received electricity, emission of carbon gas power plants location on land, offshore). As a result of the determined significance per kilowatt capacity input; reduction of gas emissions per kilowatt; decrease due to the investments of the emission of one ton of CO2. Based on a comparison of actual data refuted the prevailing stereotype and proved that the subsidies per ton of oil equivalent consumption of fossil energy sources exceed renew able energy grant. Leasing, being one of the most complex financial instruments, successfully established itself in many sectors of the economy. The article presents a new methodology for determining the socio-economic efficiency of leasing in renewable energy. Leasing renewable energy statistics is generated in Europe and the calculations saved lives, spending on health and the environment related to the replacement of fossil energy with renewable sources and emissions into the atmosphere harmful substances. Used in article database includes data on renewable energy projects; analytical and statistical reports BP Statistical Review of World Energy; Renewables Global Status Report (REN21); Bloomberg New Energy Finance – New Energy Outlook; World Leasing Yearbook; Leaseurope Annual Reports; International Energy Agency; the results of the authors' surveys of the leasing market in Russia.
经济、技术和生态的变化显著地调整了权力结构。基于对215个项目的回归分析,定义了太阳能和风能投资影响因素(建设时间与电站、接收电力的家庭数量、碳气体排放、电厂在陆地、海上的位置)之间关系的密度。由于确定了每千瓦容量输入的重要性;减少每千瓦的气体排放量;减少了由于投资排放一吨二氧化碳。通过对实际数据的比较,驳斥了普遍存在的刻板印象,证明化石能源每吨油当量消费的补贴超过了可再生能源补贴。租赁作为最复杂的金融工具之一,成功地在许多经济部门建立了自己的地位。本文提出了一种确定可再生能源租赁的社会经济效率的新方法。租赁可再生能源的统计数据是在欧洲产生的,这些计算挽救了生命、与用可再生能源替代化石能源和向大气排放有害物质有关的健康和环境支出。用于文章数据库的数据包括可再生能源项目;《BP世界能源统计评论》分析和统计报告;可再生能源全球现状报告(REN21);彭博新能源财经-新能源展望;世界租赁年鉴;Leaseurope年度报告;国际能源署;这是作者对俄罗斯租赁市场调查的结果。
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引用次数: 3
Barriers of the EAEU Common Market for Foreign Activity of Enterprises 欧亚经济联盟对外企业活动共同市场的壁垒
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-1-61-89
R. Volkov, Short-Term Forecasting, E. Sabelnikova, V. Salnikov, Marat Idrisov, S. Zhumabekova, Peter Piakucka
The article deals with the results of EAEU key manufacturing enterprises survey aimed at identifying barriers for trade and economic cooperation within EAEU common market elimination of which is one of the key tasks for further integration in EAEU. The study focuses on issues of general availability of EAEU markets and specific barriers and obstacles on the EAEU common market.The approach of the study differs from previous ones in the following ways. Firstly we considered both exporting and not exporting enterprises. Secondly the UNCTAD non-tariff barriers classification being employed for survey external barriers list was strongly modified to simplify the interpretation of barriers by enterprises. Besides two quasi-barriers of high competition and lack of information were added.The survey results showed high availability and the absence of any crucial barriers within the EAEU common market: from 70 to 90% of them considered EAEU common market to be generally available despite two thirds out of them have indicated some or another barriers on the common market.The key barriers of the common market are quasi-barriers of hard competition and lack of information along with such non-tariff barriers as restrictions of competition, technical barriers and barriers and obstacles related to finance regulation.Given the survey results some recommendations are proposed to reduce the identified obstacles for EAEU industrial enterprises on the EAEU common market.The results of the study will be helpful in developing measures for boosting foreign trade activities and cooperation of both industrial enterprises and the EAEU member states on the whole.
本文对欧亚经济联盟重点制造企业的调查结果进行了分析,旨在找出欧亚经济联盟共同市场内贸易和经济合作的障碍,消除这些障碍是欧亚经济联盟进一步一体化的关键任务之一。这项研究的重点是欧亚经济联盟市场的普遍可用性问题以及欧亚经济联盟共同市场的具体壁垒和障碍。本研究的方法与以往的研究有以下几个方面的不同。首先我们考虑了出口企业和非出口企业。第二,大力修改了用于调查的贸发会议非关税壁垒分类外部壁垒清单,以简化企业对壁垒的解释。此外,还增加了高竞争和信息缺乏两种准壁垒。调查结果显示,欧亚经济联盟共同市场的可用性很高,而且没有任何关键障碍:70%至90%的受访者认为欧亚经济联盟共同市场是普遍可用的,尽管其中三分之二的受访者表示共同市场存在一些或另一些障碍。共同市场的主要壁垒是激烈竞争和缺乏信息的准壁垒,以及诸如限制竞争、技术壁垒和与金融监管有关的壁垒和障碍等非关税壁垒。根据调查结果,提出了一些建议,以减少欧亚经济联盟工业企业进入欧亚经济联盟共同市场的障碍。研究结果将有助于制定促进工业企业和欧亚经济联盟成员国整体对外贸易活动和合作的措施。
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引用次数: 2
Russian Food Market Transformation: Income and Substitution Effects 俄罗斯食品市场转型:收入与替代效应
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.17323/1813-8691-2019-23-4-605-623
E. Berendeeva
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引用次数: 4
期刊
HSE Economic Journal
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