Agricultural and Food Economics最新文献

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What future for organic farming? Foresight for a smallholder Mediterranean agricultural system 有机农业的未来如何?地中海小农农业系统的远见

2区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Agricultural and Food Economics

Pub Date : 2023-09-12 DOI: 10.1186/s40100-023-00275-6

Olga M. Moreno-Pérez, Amparo Blázquez-Soriano

Abstract This study aims to foresee the future of organic farming in the smallholder agricultural systems of the Valencian Region (Spain), as well as to identify how different drivers of change may affect such a future. To do so, two qualitative methodologies were combined: The Delphi method and the participatory scenario development. The results estimate an upward trend for organic farming area and sales, which would contribute to a greener and more sustainable economy in the region, a slight drop in organic versus conventional food prices, the entrance of large operators and a “dualisation” of the models of production and consumption of organic food. The key role that the public sector plays for the future of organic farming is underlined by the stakeholders, who suggest that the civil society may counterbalance the lack of public support by way of collective action and an increasing awareness about health and sustainability. This study concludes by highlighting the main findings obtained, both regarding the expected evolution of organic agriculture in the region and the key factors that would influence such evolution, emphasising the applicability of the results to other similar smallholder Mediterranean farming systems.

本研究旨在预测巴伦西亚地区(西班牙)小农农业系统中有机农业的未来，并确定不同的变化驱动因素如何影响这种未来。为此，我们结合了两种定性方法:德尔菲法和参与性情景开发。结果估计有机农业面积和销售将呈上升趋势，这将有助于该地区更环保、更可持续的经济，有机食品价格相对于传统食品价格略有下降，大型运营商的进入以及有机食品生产和消费模式的“二元化”。利益攸关方强调了公共部门对有机农业的未来发挥的关键作用，他们建议民间社会可以通过集体行动和提高对健康和可持续性的认识来抵消缺乏公众支持的问题。本研究最后强调了所获得的主要发现，包括该地区有机农业的预期演变和影响这种演变的关键因素，强调了结果对其他类似的地中海小农农业系统的适用性。

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