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Supply, Demand and Asymmetric Adjustment of House Prices in Poland 波兰房价的供应、需求和非对称调整
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0013
Michał Głuszak, R. Trojanek
Abstract In recent years, a lot of empirical effort has been made to search for potential nonlinear responses of house prices to various demand and supply factors. This paper examines Poland's heterogeneous regional housing market reactions to key economic variables from 2000 to 2022. The study raises two research questions related to the asymmetric adjustment of housing markets to selected demand and supply shocks. Firstly, we ask whether the house price adjustments to negative shocks are relatively minor (for example, during an economic downturn) when compared to positive shocks (prevalent in booming markets), mainly due to the loss aversion behavior theory and nominal rigidity of house prices. In particular, we test the hypothesis that house prices react more to positive impulses from supply and demand than negative ones. Secondly, we investigate whether market reactions are similar for large and small metropolitan markets. The second hypothesis posits that metropolitan housing markets adjust asymmetrically to demand and supply shocks based on the city size (population and housing stock in a given city). The study uses a nonlinear ARDL model to test the research hypotheses empirically. This paper provides new insights into the nonlinear reactions of house prices to exogenous shocks and adds to the limited empirical evidence from less developed economies.
摘 要 近年来,人们在寻找房价对各种供求因素的潜在非线性反应方面做出了大量的实证努力。本文研究了 2000 年至 2022 年波兰地区住房市场对主要经济变量的异质性反应。该研究提出了两个与住房市场对特定供求冲击的非对称调整有关的研究问题。首先,我们要问的是,与正向冲击(普遍存在于繁荣市场)相比,房价对负向冲击的调整是否相对较小(例如,在经济衰退期间),这主要是由于损失规避行为理论和房价的名义刚性造成的。特别是,我们检验了这样一个假设,即房价对来自供求关系的正面冲击的反应要大于负面冲击。其次,我们研究了大城市市场和小城市市场的市场反应是否相似。第二个假设认为,大都市住房市场会根据城市规模(特定城市的人口和住房存量)对供求冲击做出非对称调整。本研究使用非线性 ARDL 模型对研究假设进行了实证检验。本文对房价对外部冲击的非线性反应提出了新的见解,并补充了欠发达经济体的有限经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Housing Deprivation Among Polish Households: Prevalence and Associated Factors 波兰家庭的住房匮乏问题:普遍程度和相关因素
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0015
Hanna Dudek, Agnieszka Wojewódzka-Wiewiórska
Abstract Housing deprivation is a multidimensional concept that can be measured using various indicators. This study focuses on severe housing deprivation and its components – overcrowding and housing conditions problems. Severe housing deprivation means the failure to meet basic housing needs. Eurostat defines it as the simultaneous occurrence of overcrowding and housing conditions problems. All analyzed indicators of housing deprivation are based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EUSILC) 2019 survey data. The study covers households in Poland – a country facing serious problems of housing deprivation. In fact, three dimensions of housing deprivation are examined: experiencing only housing conditions problems, experiencing only overcrowding, and being severely housing deprived. The study aims to investigate the prevalence of three-dimensional housing deprivation and reveal which socioeconomic features of the household are associated with the analyzed phenomenon. To achieve these purposes, the multinomial logit model was used to assess the average marginal effects for explanatory variables. It was found that the significant factors associated with housing deprivation are tenure status, dwelling type, household income, average age of household members, their level of educational achievement, presence of disabled and unemployed people, and household type.
摘要 住房匮乏是一个多维概念,可以用各种指标来衡量。本研究的重点是严重住房匮乏及其组成部分--过度拥挤和住房条件问题。严重住房匮乏意味着无法满足基本的住房需求。欧盟统计局将其定义为同时出现过度拥挤和住房条件问题。所有分析的住房匮乏指标均基于欧盟收入和生活条件统计(EUSILC)2019 年的调查数据。研究涵盖了波兰的家庭--一个面临严重住房匮乏问题的国家。事实上,研究从三个维度考察了住房匮乏问题:仅有住房条件问题、仅有过度拥挤问题和严重住房匮乏问题。本研究旨在调查三维住房匮乏的普遍程度,并揭示家庭的哪些社会经济特征与所分析的现象相关。为实现这些目的,我们使用了多叉对数模型来评估解释变量的平均边际效应。结果发现,与住房匮乏相关的重要因素包括保有权状况、住宅类型、家庭收入、家庭成员的平均年龄、受教育程度、是否有残疾人和失业者以及家庭类型。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Revitalisation on the Value of Residential Premises in Historic Urban Layouts 活化对历史城区住宅价值的影响
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2024-0011
A. Bieda, Weronika Maniak
Abstract The aim of this research was to analyze the effects of revitalization activities performed in a selected historical urban layout using the mixed method in which statistical analysis was supported by Geographic Information System (GIS) tools on the price level of residential premises on the secondary market. The subject of the analyses is “Old” Nowa Huta (Krakow, Poland), which was designed as an ideal independent city in the mid-20th century. The analysis covered the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2020. The conducted analyses have demonstrated that the transaction prices (and hence the value) of residential premises located in “Old” Nowa Huta increased during the performed revitalization activities. However, based on the results obtained, it could not be confirmed that this was the direct result of the revitalization itself, because the price level within the research site increased in proportion to the rising prices in the entire city. It seems, however, that although the changes in the quality of space in the analyzed area are not spectacular, they serve to improve the quality of life of the local community and are one of the ways to protect this historic urban layout.
摘要 本研究的目的是采用混合方法,在地理信息系统(GIS)工具的支持下进行统计分析,分析在选定的历史城市布局中开展的振兴活动对二级市场住宅价格水平的影响。分析对象是 "老 "新胡塔(波兰克拉科夫),它在 20 世纪中期被设计为理想的独立城市。分析时间跨度为 2007 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日。分析表明,在开展振兴活动期间,位于 "老 "新胡塔的住宅交易价格(以及价值)有所上升。然而,根据所获得的结果,无法确认这是振兴活动本身的直接结果,因为研究地点的价格水平与整个城市的价格上涨成正比。不过,尽管分析区域内空间质量的变化并不显著,但似乎有助于提高当地社区的生活质量,也是保护这一历史性城市布局的方法之一。
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引用次数: 0
The Phenomenon of the Polish Warehouse Real Estate Market – Sources of Success and Prospects for Development 波兰仓储房地产市场现象--成功的源泉和发展的前景
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0031
W. W. Budner
Abstract The article presents the development of the modern warehouse real estate market in Poland (from 2004 to 2022). The reference area is the European market. Against its background, Poland has become a fast-growing bank next to Germany and the fifth largest in terms of modern warehouse space. This happened despite the unstable and unpredictable macroeconomic and political situation in recent years, as well as the dangerous epidemic effects, e.g. connecting supply chains. The article is an attempt to find the sources of success of this Polish phenomenon, the search for a specific spatial configuration of the market and short- and long-term perspectives for the development of the warehouse market in Poland.
摘要本文介绍了波兰现代仓库房地产市场的发展(从2004年到2022年)。参考区域是欧洲市场。在这种背景下,波兰已成为仅次于德国的快速增长的银行,在现代仓库空间方面排名第五。尽管近年来宏观经济和政治局势不稳定和不可预测,以及危险的流行病影响,例如连接供应链,但仍取得了这一成就。本文试图寻找波兰仓储市场成功的原因,为波兰仓储市场的发展寻找一个特定的空间配置和短期和长期的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Management of Municipal Housing Resources By Local Authorities in the Municipalities of Krakow (Poland) and Oradea (Romania) – A Comparative Study 波兰克拉科夫市和罗马尼亚奥拉迪亚市地方政府对市政住房资源的管理--比较研究
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0027
A. Trembecka, Gabriela Droj, A. Kwartnik-Pruc
Abstract Changes in administrative structures in post-communist countries after the change of the political system resulted in the division of tasks performed by public administration. Local self-governments were established and the tasks of meeting the needs of local communities, including the housing needs, became their responsibility. The aim of this research paper is to examine whether these tasks are actually being implemented and to analyze the measures taken by municipalities in this respect. Real estate management was analyzed in terms of selling residential premises by way of tender and without a tender procedure, as well as purchasing residential premises for the implementation of the municipal tasks. The research was carried out on the example of the Municipality of Krakow in the years 2015-2022. The results of the analyses were compared with the results of the research carried out in the Municipality of Oradea in Romania. The data collected in these two municipalities in two different countries revealed completely different approaches of the local authorities to the analyzed issue. In Krakow, the local authorities have developed a long-term programme for managing the municipal housing resources, which is consistently being implemented. The local authorities in Oradea do not take any action to increase the number of available residential premises, or even to renovate them. Instead, they expect action to be taken by the National Housing Agency or private companies.
后共产主义国家在政治体制变革后行政结构的变化导致了公共行政职能的分工。建立了地方自治政府,满足地方社区需要的任务,包括住房需要,成为它们的责任。本研究报告的目的是审查这些任务是否正在实际执行,并分析市政当局在这方面采取的措施。房地产管理分析了通过招标和不招标的方式出售住宅物业,以及为执行市政任务而购买住宅物业。该研究以2015-2022年克拉科夫市为例进行。分析结果与在罗马尼亚奥拉迪亚市进行的研究结果进行了比较。在两个不同国家的这两个城市收集的数据揭示了地方当局对所分析问题的完全不同的方法。在克拉科夫,地方当局制定了一项管理市政住房资源的长期方案,该方案正在不断得到执行。奥拉迪亚的地方当局没有采取任何行动来增加可用住宅的数量,甚至没有对它们进行翻新。相反,他们预计国家住房管理局(National Housing Agency)或私营企业将采取行动。
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引用次数: 0
The Dynamics of the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Pan-Asia’s Real Estate Investment Trusts Covid-19 大流行对泛亚房地产投资信托的动态影响
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0026
Elsa Sapphira Victor, Muhammad Najib Razali, H. Ali
Abstract This study evaluated the dynamics of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Pan-Asian countries impacted by COVID-19. The countries comprised Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, China, the Philippines, and Hong Kong. The study aimed to understand how the global crisis affected the real estate industry, specifically publicly traded companies. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted many industries worldwide, including real estate. It caused changes in supply and demand dynamics, disrupted business operations and affected economic activity. The pandemic has also caused a general economic slowdown, with businesses struggling and unemployment rates increasing in some countries in Asia. This in turn has led to reduced consumer spending and lower demand for all types of properties, impacting the overall performance of the Asian REITs market. This study employed techniques such as Sharpe ratio, variance ratio, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to highlight the dynamics of Asian REITs towards the impact of COVID-19. The findings revealed that all Asian countries were severely impacted by COVID-19, with Japan REITs experiencing the highest drop and Taiwan REITs experiencing the lowest decline.
摘要本研究评估了受COVID-19影响的泛亚国家房地产投资信托基金(REITs)的动态。这些国家包括马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚、新加坡、越南、韩国、日本、中国、菲律宾和香港。这项研究旨在了解全球危机如何影响房地产行业,特别是上市公司。2019冠状病毒病大流行严重影响了全球许多行业,包括房地产。它引起了供需动态的变化,扰乱了商业运作,影响了经济活动。新冠肺炎疫情还造成了整体经济放缓,亚洲一些国家的企业陷入困境,失业率上升。这反过来又导致消费者支出减少,对各类物业的需求下降,影响了亚洲房地产投资信托基金市场的整体表现。本研究采用夏普比率、方差比和方差分析(ANOVA)等技术来突出亚洲REITs对COVID-19影响的动态。调查结果显示,所有亚洲国家都受到COVID-19的严重影响,其中日本REITs跌幅最大,台湾REITs跌幅最小。
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引用次数: 0
Why Did Housing Prices Rise to a Record Level in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis 土耳其房价为何屡创新高?经验分析
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0025
Reha Z. Yaşar, Erdem Bulut
Abstract Turkey is one of those countries where housing market has been most severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. Today the effects of the outbreak have been eliminated significantly. This study retrospectively looks at the days when the world faced a widespread outbreak of a pandemic and investigates the effect of the pandemic and the changes in consumer confidence on housing prices and the volatility of housing prices. Considering the structural breaks in the analysis period (2010:q1-2022:q4 quarterly), we used the Lee and Strazicich structural break unit root test as a research method. The results show that an increase in costs due to a break in the supply chain and containment measures forcing the workforce to stay at home affected the housing supply adversely. It is observable that expansionary economic policies and social assistance programs have a positive effect on housing demand. In this regard, negative supply shock and positive demand pressure are seen to be the determinants of the recent housing price increases in Turkey. However, while there is a positive relationship between consumer confidence and house prices, the effect of house prices on the volatility is statistically insignificant.
土耳其是房地产市场受COVID-19大流行影响最严重的国家之一。今天,疫情的影响已大大消除。本研究回顾了世界面临大流行爆发的日子,并调查了大流行的影响以及消费者信心的变化对房价和房价波动的影响。考虑到分析期内的结构性断裂(2010:q1-2022:q4季度),我们采用了Lee and Strazicich结构断裂单位根检验作为研究方法。结果表明,供应链中断导致的成本增加以及迫使劳动力留在家中的遏制措施对住房供应产生了不利影响。可以观察到,扩张性经济政策和社会救助计划对住房需求有积极影响。在这方面,负面的供应冲击和积极的需求压力被认为是土耳其最近房价上涨的决定因素。然而,虽然消费者信心与房价之间存在正相关关系,但房价对波动性的影响在统计上不显著。
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引用次数: 0
Local Amenities – Spatial Modelling of Market Potential Based on Open Data 地方便利设施--基于开放数据的市场潜力空间建模
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0030
R. Cellmer
Abstract This paper presents the concept and methodology for assessing the market potential of local convenience shops in spatial terms. The methods concerned are based on spatial analyses using information derived from open data concerning local population density and competing establishments. The study focused on four main stages, including the estimation of shop density, population density, the compilation of a market potential map, and data reclassification to identify the potential for the location of new shops. The area under study comprised three cities: Łódź, Poznań, and Wrocław. The results of the study suggest that a high market potential does not concern the most populated areas but less populated ones, which is mainly due to much less competition. It was also indicated that the study may serve an important role in terms of sustainable urban development and an improvement in the inhabitants’ quality of life.
摘要本文提出了从空间角度评估当地便利店市场潜力的概念和方法。所涉及的方法基于空间分析,使用的信息来自有关当地人口密度和竞争场所的公开数据。研究集中在四个主要阶段,包括估计商店密度、人口密度、编制市场潜力地图和数据重新分类,以确定新店的选址潜力。研究区域包括三个城市:Łódź、波兹纳斯和Wrocław。研究结果表明,高市场潜力并不涉及人口最多的地区,而是人口较少的地区,这主要是由于竞争少得多。报告还指出,这项研究可能在可持续城市发展和改善居民生活质量方面发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Housing Price Trends in Poland: Online Social Engagement - Google Trends 预测波兰住房价格趋势:在线社交参与 - 谷歌趋势
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0032
M. Bełej
Abstract Various research methods can be used to collect housing market data and predict housing prices. The online search activity of Internet users is a novel and highly interesting measure of social behavior. In the present study, dwelling prices in Poland were analyzed based on aggregate data from seven Polish cities relative to the number of online searches for the keyword dwelling tracked by Google Trends, as well as several classical macroeconomic indicators. The analysis involved a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and the Granger causality test. The results of the study suggest that the volume of online searches returned by Google Trends is an effective predictor of housing price dynamics, and that unemployment and economic growth are important additional variables.
摘要:收集住房市场数据,预测房价,可以采用多种研究方法。互联网用户的在线搜索活动是一种新颖而有趣的社会行为测量方法。在本研究中,波兰的住宅价格是基于七个波兰城市的总体数据,相对于谷歌趋势跟踪的关键词住宅的在线搜索数量,以及几个经典的宏观经济指标进行分析的。分析涉及向量自回归(VAR)模型和格兰杰因果检验。研究结果表明,谷歌趋势返回的在线搜索量是房价动态的有效预测指标,失业率和经济增长是重要的附加变量。
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引用次数: 0
Apartment Rental Market in Rzeszów and Lublin at the Turn of 2021-2022 2021-2022 年初热舒夫和卢布林的公寓租赁市场
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0029
M. Hełdak, Ewelina Pieszko, L. Kucher
Abstract The paper presents the impact of market characteristics on the rental rate of apartments and compares the levels of the offered rental rate in two selected cities: Rzeszów and Lublin. The analyses were conducted before and during Russia's aggression against Ukraine, based on residential rental offers. Data on the offer of residential premises for rent, posted on online portals in the period from November 2021, to April 2022, was used. The analyses showed an increase in rental prices in March 2022, mainly in Rzeszów, and similar correlations of the impact of characteristics on the market rental rate in both cities in relation to the area of the unit, the number of rooms, the location on the floor, the condition of the flat and the age of the building.
摘要:本文介绍了市场特征对公寓出租率的影响,并比较了两个选定城市Rzeszów和卢布林的提供出租率水平。这些分析是在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前和期间根据住宅租赁报价进行的。该研究使用了2021年11月至2022年4月期间在线门户网站上发布的住宅出租数据。分析显示,2022年3月的租金价格上涨,主要是在Rzeszów,两个城市的特征对市场租金的影响与单位面积、房间数量、楼层位置、公寓状况和建筑年龄有关。
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引用次数: 0
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Real Estate Management and Valuation
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