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Forecasting the Volatility of Real Residential Property Prices in Malaysia: A Comparison of Garch Models 马来西亚房地产价格波动预测:Garch模型的比较
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0018
Ahmad Abubakar Suleiman, M. Othman, Hanita Daud, Mohd Lazim Abdullah, E. A. Kadir, Ibrahim Lawal Kane, Abdullah Husin
Abstract The presence of volatility in residential property market prices helps investors generate substantial profit while also causing fear among investors since high volatility implies a high return with a high risk. In a financial time series, volatility refers to the degree to which the residential property market price increases or decreases during a particular period. The present study aims to forecast the volatility returns of real residential property prices (RRPP) in Malaysia using three different families of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The study compared the standard GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH models to determine which model offers a better volatility forecasting ability. The results revealed that the GJR-GARCH (1,1) model is the most suitable to forecast the volatility of the Malaysian RRPP index based on the goodness-of-fit metric. Finally, the volatility forecast using the rolling window shows that the volatility of the quarterly index decreased in the third quarter (Q3) of 2021 and stabilized at the beginning of the first quarter (Q1) of 2023. Therefore, the best time to start investing in the purchase of real residential property in Malaysia would be the first quarter of 2023. The findings of this study can help Malaysian policymakers, developers, and investors understand the high and low volatility periods in the prices of residential properties to make better investment decisions.
住宅房地产市场价格波动的存在,在帮助投资者获得丰厚利润的同时,也引起投资者的恐慌,因为高波动意味着高风险的高回报。在金融时间序列中,波动性是指住宅物业市场价格在特定时期内上涨或下跌的程度。本研究旨在利用三种不同的广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型来预测马来西亚实际住宅房地产价格(RRPP)的波动回报。本研究比较了标准GARCH、EGARCH和GJR-GARCH模型,以确定哪种模型具有更好的波动率预测能力。结果表明,基于拟合优度指标的GJR-GARCH(1,1)模型最适合预测马来西亚RRPP指数的波动率。最后,使用滚动窗口的波动性预测显示,季度指数的波动性在2021年第三季度(Q3)下降,并在2023年第一季度(Q1)初企稳。因此,开始投资购买马来西亚真正的住宅物业的最佳时机将是2023年第一季度。本研究的结果可以帮助马来西亚的政策制定者、开发商和投资者了解住宅物业价格的高波动期和低波动期,从而做出更好的投资决策。
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引用次数: 0
Real Estate Appraisalusing the Liquidation Costmethod – A Case Study 使用清算成本法的房地产评估-一个案例研究
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0023
M. Podwórna, Marek Sawicki
Abstract A real estate appraiser, using the liquidation cost method of the mixed approach in order to determine the value of real estate, analyzes, e.g. the value of post-demolition materials and the costs of liquidating components. The paper presents the problem of determining the costs of demolition works, which are correlated with the adopted demolition technology, the method of managing waste from post-demolition materials, and the costs incurred to maintain the occupational health and safety of employees and bystanders. Important elements of determining the demolition costs include the type of demolition waste and the relevant classification subgroup, the used demolition technology, and also the method of managing waste materials. The publication presents a calculation example that concerns the cost analysis of the demolition of a building structure. The demolition was performed using the mechanical method. The presented analyses cover different variants of carrying out works, whereas optimization refers to the different types of equipment used, available employee resources, and the various ways of recycling/managing post-demolition materials (storing, resale or processing). The conducted analyzes allow a multi-faceted approach to the subject matter to be obtained, and also an optimal solution to be selected by the participants of the investment process.
摘要房地产估价师采用混合法的清算成本法来确定房地产的价值,例如分析拆迁后材料的价值和清算组成部分的成本。本文提出了确定拆除工程成本的问题,这些成本与所采用的拆除技术、管理拆除后材料产生的废物的方法以及维护员工和旁观者的职业健康和安全所产生的成本有关。确定拆除成本的重要因素包括拆除废物的类型和相关分类分组、使用的拆除技术以及管理废料的方法。该出版物提供了一个涉及建筑结构拆除成本分析的计算示例。拆除是用机械方法进行的。所提供的分析涵盖了实施工程的不同变体,而优化是指使用的不同类型的设备、可用的员工资源以及回收/管理拆除后材料的各种方式(储存、转售或加工)。所进行的分析可以获得对主题的多方面方法,也可以由投资过程的参与者选择最佳解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Housing and the Pandemic: How Has Covid-19 Influenced Residents’ Needs and Aspirations? 住房与大流行病:新冠肺炎如何影响居民的需求和愿望?
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0010
E. Stachura, Magdalena Jagiełło-Kowalczyk
Abstract Satisfactory housing conditions define, in many aspects, people’s comfort and a high standard of living. The psychological and social characteristics of residents strongly determine housing needs and preferences. They also depend on economic, spatial, technical, and cultural factors. The Covid-19 pandemic, which humankind had been experiencing for two years, influenced all spheres of human life, especially inhabitation. The functional program of homes has changed, as well as public spaces, transportation and social ties. While the future is uncertain, the many changes provoked by the pandemic might become irreversible. This paper aims to present how the phenomena mentioned above have influenced the housing environment and residential preferences and trends that may follow. A survey conducted among Cracow residents in Autumn 2021 revealed a significant shift in lifestyles that corresponded with the change in residential needs, preferences and attitudes towards the housing environment. Working from home has induced redefining the use of particular rooms/spaces. For safety, families attempted to reorganize the entrance zone. Outdoor public spaces have become more appreciated following the trend of healthier everyday life. Over the long term, the pandemic experience may significantly influence the residential market.
令人满意的住房条件在许多方面定义了人们的舒适度和高生活水平。居民的心理和社会特征强烈决定了住房需求和偏好。它们还取决于经济、空间、技术和文化因素。人类已经经历了两年的新冠肺炎大流行,影响了人类生活的各个领域,尤其是居住。住宅的功能规划发生了变化,公共空间、交通和社会关系也发生了变化。尽管未来不确定,但疫情引发的许多变化可能会不可逆转。本文旨在介绍上述现象如何影响住房环境和居住偏好,以及可能出现的趋势。2021年秋季在克拉考居民中进行的一项调查显示,随着居住需求、偏好和对住房环境态度的变化,生活方式发生了重大转变。在家工作促使人们重新定义了特定房间/空间的使用。为了安全起见,各家各户试图重新组织入口区域。随着日常生活更加健康的趋势,户外公共空间变得越来越受欢迎。从长远来看,疫情可能会对住宅市场产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Marketing Tools Used by Real Estate Development Companies Using Secret Client Research – a Case Study From Krakow 利用秘密客户研究分析房地产开发公司使用的营销工具——以克拉科夫为例
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0011
Klaudia Tomasik, B. Marona
Abstract The aim of the paper is to find out what marketing tools are used by development companies operating in Poland to attract customers and whether the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on marketing can be observed. The secondary aim of the paper is to determine whether developers building investments in the area of the restricted use area (O.O.U.) use more marketing tools to convince potential customers to buy. For this purpose, a secret client survey was used and the research sample consists of four development companies and four of their investments in Kraków. The research conducted led to the disclosure of marketing tools used by developers. The survey shows that some elements of home branding, storytelling and banner ads, social media ads, ads on websites and portals and information brochures are being used. Through the use of virtual walks, housing visualization and the use of social media in advertising, the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on marketing in the industry can be seen. The analysis shows that companies creating developments in the restricted use area are not using more tricks to attract customers. All developers selected for the study use a similar number of marketing tools.
本文的目的是找出在波兰经营的开发公司使用什么营销工具来吸引客户,以及第四次工业革命对营销的影响是否可以观察到。本文的第二个目的是确定在限制使用区域(o.o.u)建设投资的开发商是否使用更多的营销工具来说服潜在客户购买。为此,使用了秘密客户调查,研究样本包括四家开发公司及其在Kraków的四笔投资。这项研究揭示了开发商使用的营销工具。调查显示,家庭品牌、讲故事和横幅广告、社交媒体广告、网站和门户网站广告以及信息小册子的一些元素正在被使用。通过在广告中使用虚拟步行,房屋可视化和社交媒体,可以看到第四次工业革命对行业营销的影响。分析表明,在限制使用区域开发项目的公司并没有使用更多的技巧来吸引客户。所有参与研究的开发商都使用了类似数量的营销工具。
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引用次数: 0
Real Estate Market Perceptions, Housing and Investment Plans of Students and Graduates 房地产市场认知、学生和毕业生的住房和投资计划
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0013
Patrycja Konieczna, Natalia Konar
Abstract The purpose of this study is to identify the knowledge of the real estate market by students and graduates and to find out their housing and investment plans. A literature study relating to the real estate market was conducted. The diagnostic survey method was used to determine the housing and investment plans of students and graduates, their expectations regarding changes in housing policy, and their level of knowledge of basic concepts and relationships related to the real estate market. The survey was conducted in March 2022 among students and graduates of Wroclaw University of Economics and Business. The great majority of the respondents consider the housing policy in Poland to need changes, mainly in the direction of greater support for young people, lowering the costs of mortgage loans and reducing the formalities associated with the construction of real estate. Moreover, research indicates that less than half of young people are able to fully support themselves during or shortly after graduation. Only one in four respondents had a disposable income of more than PLN 2,000. Many students and graduates plan to purchase real estate in the future, and nearly 60% of respondents intend to finance the purchase with a mortgage.
摘要本研究旨在了解学生和毕业生对房地产市场的了解,并了解他们的住房和投资计划。进行了一项与房地产市场有关的文献研究。诊断性调查方法用于确定学生和毕业生的住房和投资计划,他们对住房政策变化的期望,以及他们对房地产市场相关基本概念和关系的知识水平。该调查于2022年3月在弗罗茨瓦夫经贸大学的学生和毕业生中进行。绝大多数受访者认为波兰的住房政策需要改变,主要是朝着加大对年轻人的支持力度、降低抵押贷款成本和减少与房地产建设相关的手续的方向发展。此外,研究表明,只有不到一半的年轻人能够在毕业期间或毕业后不久完全养活自己。只有四分之一的受访者的可支配收入超过2000兹罗提。许多学生和毕业生计划在未来购买房地产,近60%的受访者打算通过抵押贷款为购买提供资金。
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引用次数: 0
Duration of the Rental Offer for Residential Property 住宅物业的租赁期限
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0015
Anna Gdakowicz, Ewa Putek-Szeląg, Marcin Bas
Abstract The rental market in Poland is underdeveloped, not subject to any statutory registers, and based primarily on small, private owners. The article estimates the duration of residential rental properties that have been reported to the listing exchange system using duration methods. Duration methods also allow the analysis to include those properties that were not rented at the time the analysis was completed, but their owners continued to report their willingness to rent. The article presents the results of the analysis of how long it takes to rent an apartment over the entire analysis period and in each year separately. The presented study is the first to examine the duration of residential real estate offerings for rent in the Polish market. Considering the entire analysis period, 25% of the reported apartments were rented in 7.3 weeks. The fastest 25% of rental offers were successful (rented) in 2019 – 4.86 weeks. The longest apartment owners waited for a tenant was in 2020 – more than 8 weeks, which was undoubtedly influenced by the lockdown of the entire country, and the change in the organization of work and study (remote work and studies, which did not require being in the city).
波兰的租赁市场不发达,不受任何法定登记的约束,主要基于小型私人业主。本文使用期限法估计已向上市交易系统报告的住宅租赁物业的期限。持续时间方法还允许分析包括那些在分析完成时未出租但其所有者继续报告其出租意愿的房产。本文分别介绍了在整个分析期间和每年租用公寓所需时间的分析结果。提出的研究是第一个检查住宅房地产产品的租期在波兰市场。考虑到整个分析期间,25%的报告公寓在7.3周内被租出去。最快的25%的租赁报价在2019年成功(租用)- 4.86周。公寓业主等待租客的最长时间是在2020年——超过8周,这无疑是受到全国封锁以及工作和学习组织变化(远程工作和学习,不需要在城市)的影响。
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引用次数: 1
Assessment of Damage Caused by the Reduction of Daylight Lighting Duration of Residential Constructions in the Conditions of the Republicof Moldova 摩尔多瓦共和国条件下住宅建筑日光照明时间缩短造成的损失评估
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0012
Svetlana Albu, Valeriu Ivanov, Ion Albu
Abstract This paper examines the material damage caused to the owner of the property as a result of the violation of the design rules. This phenomenon was observed by the authors participating in the period 2018-2021 in the assessment of over 500 construction projects of residential blocks on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. In about 50% was found a violation of lighting regulations. Through this study, we aimed to investigate the ways to assess the extent of the damage caused by the reduction of the level of daylight lighting in residential buildings in the specific conditions of the real estate market in the Republic of Moldova. This paper aims to: Identify the legislative and normative framework that regulates the process of ascertaining the damage caused to the owner of the residential real estate following the reduction of the level of sunshine and natural lighting; Determine the consequences of reducing the level of sunshine and natural lighting for residential buildings; Propose methods for estimating the material damage caused to the owner of the damaged real estate under the conditions of the Republic of Moldova.
摘要本文探讨了因违反设计规则而对财产所有人造成的物质损害。作者在2018-2021年期间对摩尔多瓦共和国境内500多个住宅区建设项目进行了评估,观察到了这一现象。大约50%的人被发现违反了照明规定。通过这项研究,我们旨在调查在摩尔多瓦共和国房地产市场的特定条件下,评估住宅楼日光照明水平降低所造成的损害程度的方法。本文旨在:确定立法和规范框架,以规范确定日照和自然光照水平降低后对住宅房地产所有者造成的损害的过程;确定降低住宅楼日照和自然采光水平的后果;根据摩尔多瓦共和国的情况,提出对受损房地产所有者造成的物质损失的估计方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Housing Prices and the Property Stock Index Volatility in South Africa 投资者情绪对南非房价和房地产股票指数波动的影响
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0009
P. Muzindutsi, R. Apau, Lorraine Muguto, Hilary Tinotenda Muguto
Abstract While prior studies have examined the predictive effect of macroeconomic and country risk components on property stock index dynamics, limited explanations exist in the literature regarding the time-varying effect of investor sentiment on housing prices. Accordingly, this study assesses the impact of investor sentiment on housing properties’ returns and the effect of investor sentiment on the conditional volatility of housing price indices under different market conditions, using GARCH, GJR-GARCH, E-GARCH and Markov-switching VAR models. We found investor sentiment to significantly impact the risk premium of the property returns, where property returns increased with positive changes in investor sentiment, and conditional volatility of property returns decreased with the same changes in investor sentiment. Investor sentiment exerts positive predictive influences on the prices of small and medium houses, in both bullish and bearish market conditions but does not affect the large housing market segment. This makes the implementation of risk-related diversification across small and medium real estate portfolios more effective than large real estate portfolios. Our findings show that investor sentiment is a plausible driver of mass investor redemption actions under conditions of uncertainty.
摘要尽管先前的研究考察了宏观经济和国家风险成分对房地产股票指数动态的预测作用,但文献中对投资者情绪对房价的时变影响的解释有限。因此,本研究使用GARCH、GJR-GARCH、E-GARCH和马尔可夫切换VAR模型评估了不同市场条件下投资者情绪对房地产回报的影响以及投资者情绪对房价指数条件波动的影响。我们发现,投资者情绪显著影响房地产回报的风险溢价,其中房地产回报随着投资者情绪的积极变化而增加,而房地产收益的条件波动性随着投资者情绪相同的变化而降低。在牛市和熊市条件下,投资者情绪对中小型房屋的价格产生了积极的预测影响,但不影响大型房屋市场。这使得在中小型房地产投资组合中实施与风险相关的多元化比大型房地产投资更有效。我们的研究结果表明,在不确定性条件下,投资者情绪是大规模投资者赎回行动的合理驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Factors on Residential Land Prices: A Case Study in Tu Son City, Vietnam 住宅用地价格的影响因素:以越南土顺市为例
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0014
Pham Phuong Nam, N. T. Huế, P. T. T. Huyen
Abstract The study aims to determine the influencing factors and their impact levels on residential land prices. The research investigated 241 officials, real estate investors, appraisers, and real estate brokers on factors affecting residential land prices. Research results have shown 13 groups with 45 factors affecting the price of residential land. The impact rates of the factor groups range from 1.43% to 23.65%. The COVID-19 pandemic factor group has the strongest impact on land prices, followed by other factor groups, including upgrading administrative units; formulation and implementation of the planning; the real estate market; financial – economics; credit; real estate brokerage; infrastructure; location of the land parcel; particular factors; juridical factors; environment and social security. To harmonize the interests of the State, investors, and land users when valuing land, it is necessary to pay attention to the factors that strongly impact land prices first, and then the smaller ones.
摘要本研究旨在确定影响住宅地价的因素及其影响程度。这项研究调查了241名官员、房地产投资者、评估师和房地产经纪人,了解影响住宅地价的因素。研究结果显示,13组45个因素影响住宅用地价格。因子组的影响率在1.43%至23.65%之间。新冠肺炎大流行因子组对土地价格的影响最强,其次是其他因子组,包括行政单位升级;规划的制定和实施;房地产市场;金融经济学;信用房地产经纪;基础设施地块的位置;特定因素;法律因素;环境和社会保障。在评估土地时,为了协调国家、投资者和土地使用者的利益,有必要首先关注对土地价格有强烈影响的因素,然后关注较小的因素。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Energy Self-Sufficient Housing Estates on Sustainable Development in Poland 能源自给自足住宅小区对波兰可持续发展的影响
IF 0.8 Q4 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0016
Dariusz Trojanowski, Łukasz Kozak
Abstract For many years, the increase of energy derived from renewable sources in the total production of electricity, has been an important aim for both central and local authorities in many countries, including Poland. –Many investments undertaken in this area contribute to sustainable development. One of the branches of "green energy" may be prosument production induced by residential self-sufficient estates. The number of technologies and facilities-related developments have been growing in each EU country every year. The current article, aims to examine the potential influence of self-sufficient estates on "green energy" production and thus on sustainable development in Poland. In order to achieve the above, case studies were undertaken. They showed the profitability of examined photovoltaic installations and capability of the sector in energy production.
多年来,在电力生产总量中增加可再生能源一直是包括波兰在内的许多国家的中央和地方当局的重要目标。-在这一领域进行的许多投资有助于可持续发展。“绿色能源”的一个分支可能是由自给自足的住宅小区引起的生产性生产。在每个欧盟国家,与技术和设施相关的发展数量每年都在增长。本文旨在研究自给自足的庄园对“绿色能源”生产的潜在影响,从而对波兰的可持续发展产生影响。为了实现上述目标,进行了个案研究。它们显示了所检查的光电装置的盈利能力和该部门在能源生产方面的能力。
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引用次数: 0
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Real Estate Management and Valuation
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