Pub Date : 2025-04-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415
A.G. Malliaris , Mary Malliaris , Mark S. Rzepczynski
Economists often use narratives that focus on a limited number of variables to describe stock market behavior. We use a neural network methodology to evaluate the appropriateness of five common narratives. Four narratives address the themes of monetary policy and financial conditions, the real macroeconomy, the global economy, and the stock market fundamentals. The fifth is a unified theme combining the best features from the previous four-macro narratives. Theme based neural network models highlight the successes and periodic failures of macro factor narratives. This paper confirms the usefulness of the narrative themes proposed to explain the asymmetric behavior of the S&P 500 Index. The monetary and unified themes perform the best.
{"title":"Explaining the asymmetric S&P 500 equity index in five themes: The success and failure of macro narratives","authors":"A.G. Malliaris , Mary Malliaris , Mark S. Rzepczynski","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Economists often use narratives that focus on a limited number of variables to describe stock market behavior. We use a neural network methodology to evaluate the appropriateness of five common narratives. Four narratives address the themes of monetary policy and financial conditions, the real macroeconomy, the global economy, and the stock market fundamentals. The fifth is a unified theme combining the best features from the previous four-macro narratives. Theme based neural network models highlight the successes and periodic failures of macro factor narratives. This paper confirms the usefulness of the narrative themes proposed to explain the asymmetric behavior of the S&P 500 Index. The monetary and unified themes perform the best.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00415"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407
Marija Tatomir, Norio Hibiki
This research addresses the asymmetric acknowledgment given to local versus global crises, particularly within the BRICS nations. Local crises often surpass global events in their impact but remain underexplored. Using a comprehensive approach combining Financial and Economic, Public Sentiment, and Governance data, the research applies a novel Axiom and Inference model to identify overlooked crises. Results indicate that local crises in BRICS countries have measurable impacts exceeding global benchmarks, with distinctive patterns of herding behaviour: China primarily responds to global crises, India reacts equally to both, and Brazil, Russia, and South Africa exhibit stronger herding during local crises. The findings challenge traditional crisis frameworks, emphasizing the need to recognize and address local and non-financial crises to mitigate their potential escalation into global phenomena.
{"title":"Herding effect of both global and local crises in BRICS countries","authors":"Marija Tatomir, Norio Hibiki","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This research addresses the asymmetric acknowledgment given to local versus global crises, particularly within the BRICS nations. Local crises often surpass global events in their impact but remain underexplored. Using a comprehensive approach combining Financial and Economic, Public Sentiment, and Governance data, the research applies a novel Axiom and Inference model to identify overlooked crises. Results indicate that local crises in BRICS countries have measurable impacts exceeding global benchmarks, with distinctive patterns of herding behaviour: China primarily responds to global crises, India reacts equally to both, and Brazil, Russia, and South Africa exhibit stronger herding during local crises. The findings challenge traditional crisis frameworks, emphasizing the need to recognize and address local and non-financial crises to mitigate their potential escalation into global phenomena.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00407"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143679849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a panel smooth threshold regression to analyze data from 17 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, this study investigates how asymmetries in energy price (EP) fluctuations impact renewable energy (RE) development, considering varying economic growth rates. The findings reveal that EP fluctuations influence RE development differently across income levels. In high-income countries, higher EPs stimulate RE expansion, while in low-income nations, they hinder it. These results support the substitution hypothesis, indicating that higher EPs encourage a shift toward alternative RE sources, though only within the high-GDP per capita regime in the MENA region. This evidence challenges the notion of a one-size-fits-all energy policy for MENA, highlighting the need for tailored strategies based on individual countries' economic contexts. High-income nations should prioritize subsidy removal to incentivize RE investments, whereas low-income countries require phased approaches to maintain economic stability. The study's broader implications extend to global energy policy, advocating for differentiated strategies that balance sustainable energy transitions with economic growth.
{"title":"Asymmetric threshold effects of economic growth on renewable energy in response to energy price fluctuations","authors":"Zakaria Boulanouar , Lobna Essid , Saqib Farid , Lassaad Ben Mahjoub","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a panel smooth threshold regression to analyze data from 17 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, this study investigates how asymmetries in energy price (EP) fluctuations impact renewable energy (RE) development, considering varying economic growth rates. The findings reveal that EP fluctuations influence RE development differently across income levels. In high-income countries, higher EPs stimulate RE expansion, while in low-income nations, they hinder it. These results support the substitution hypothesis, indicating that higher EPs encourage a shift toward alternative RE sources, though only within the high-GDP per capita regime in the MENA region. This evidence challenges the notion of a one-size-fits-all energy policy for MENA, highlighting the need for tailored strategies based on individual countries' economic contexts. High-income nations should prioritize subsidy removal to incentivize RE investments, whereas low-income countries require phased approaches to maintain economic stability. The study's broader implications extend to global energy policy, advocating for differentiated strategies that balance sustainable energy transitions with economic growth.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00414"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00413
Siddhartha Barman, Jitendra Mahakud
This study investigates the influence of ESG performance on the relationship between firm performance and global energy uncertainty (EUI). Our primary objective is to examine the manner in which the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors influences the relationship between firm performance and EUI. This objective was accomplished by employing a comprehensive dataset that encompassed 50 nations, and spanned eight years (2014–2021). The results reveal that EUI has a detrimental effect on the performance of firms, as the uncertainties induced by EUI foster a culture of risk aversion, which in turn causes firms to postpone their investment in long-term projects. In contrast, the analysis emphasises a positive correlation between ESG and EUI-firm performance relationship, suggesting that firms with robust ESG performance are more likely to invest due to improved reputation, cost reduction, and sustainable market access even in times of energy related uncertainty such as oil price volatility and other energy price surges. The novelty of this research lies in its holistic approach to examining the interconnected dynamics between EUI and firm performance, and the moderating influence of ESG. The findings offer practical guidance for investors and corporate managers.
{"title":"Energy uncertainty and Firm Performance: Does ESG matter?","authors":"Siddhartha Barman, Jitendra Mahakud","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00413","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00413","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the influence of ESG performance on the relationship between firm performance and global energy uncertainty (EUI). Our primary objective is to examine the manner in which the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors influences the relationship between firm performance and EUI. This objective was accomplished by employing a comprehensive dataset that encompassed 50 nations, and spanned eight years (2014–2021). The results reveal that EUI has a detrimental effect on the performance of firms, as the uncertainties induced by EUI foster a culture of risk aversion, which in turn causes firms to postpone their investment in long-term projects. In contrast, the analysis emphasises a positive correlation between ESG and EUI-firm performance relationship, suggesting that firms with robust ESG performance are more likely to invest due to improved reputation, cost reduction, and sustainable market access even in times of energy related uncertainty such as oil price volatility and other energy price surges. The novelty of this research lies in its holistic approach to examining the interconnected dynamics between EUI and firm performance, and the moderating influence of ESG. The findings offer practical guidance for investors and corporate managers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00413"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143642829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The article aims to examine the determinants of the asymmetries in the housing prices index (HPI) in 13 Saudi Arabian administrative regions. The authors employ a panel Vector Auto-regressions during the period 2014Q1-2023Q4 to measure the role of speculative and fundamental determinants in HPI growth across 13 regions. Furthermore, we use Least Square Dummy Variable method for the period 2015–2021 to analyze the asymmetry impact of region-specific determinants (economic, demographic, urbanization, geographic, and cultural variables) on HPI growth in 13 admirative regions. The results from the panel VAR model show that the reginal house prices growth is determined by the backward-speculative component (HPI's past values), the forward-looking speculation (Consumer Confidence Index), and the fundamentals variables (oil prices, employment, real estate loans, regional inflation, money supply, and building cost index). Furthermore, cross-section analysis using LSDV method reveals that the asymmetries in the HPI growth across 13 administrative regions is determined by the region-specific variables. These include backward-looking behavior, inflation, labor participation, population, health services quality, household size, inverse land supply, seaside density, temperature, and culture density. This study offers three key contributions to the literature. First, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes the asymmetries across Saudi Arabian regional housing markets. Second, while most studies focus on backward-looking speculation, overlooking forward-looking speculative factor, this analysis includes both. Third, the climate, geographical, and cultural determinants are largely ignored by the literature but this study incorporates these variables in the cross-section analysis.
{"title":"Factors influencing asymmetries in Saudi Arabia's housing market","authors":"Amirouche Chelghoum , Fayçal Boumimez , Mouyad Alsamara","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The article aims to examine the determinants of the asymmetries in the housing prices index (HPI) in 13 Saudi Arabian administrative regions. The authors employ a panel Vector Auto-regressions during the period 2014Q1-2023Q4 to measure the role of speculative and fundamental determinants in <em>HPI</em> growth across 13 regions. Furthermore, we use Least Square Dummy Variable method for the period 2015–2021 to analyze the asymmetry impact of region-specific determinants (economic, demographic, urbanization, geographic, and cultural variables) on <em>HPI</em> growth in 13 admirative regions. The results from the panel VAR model show that the reginal house prices growth is determined by the backward-speculative component (HPI's past values), the forward-looking speculation (Consumer Confidence Index), and the fundamentals variables (oil prices, employment, real estate loans, regional inflation, money supply, and building cost index). Furthermore, cross-section analysis using <em>LSDV</em> method reveals that the asymmetries in the <em>HPI</em> growth across 13 administrative regions is determined by the region-specific variables. These include backward-looking behavior, inflation, labor participation, population, health services quality, household size, inverse land supply, seaside density, temperature, and culture density. This study offers three key contributions to the literature. First, to the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that analyzes the asymmetries across Saudi Arabian regional housing markets. Second, while most studies focus on backward-looking speculation, overlooking forward-looking speculative factor, this analysis includes both. Third, the climate, geographical, and cultural determinants are largely ignored by the literature but this study incorporates these variables in the cross-section analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00412"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143577504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00411
Samar S. Alharbi , Mosab I. Tabash , Umar Farooq , Suzan Sameer Issa
The lack of information on climate policies designed by the government may lead to disruptive policies (specifically policies related to environmental sustainability) by the other sectors. The primary objective of the current study is to examine how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the adoption of sustainable green innovations. The effects of CPU on environmental technology development (EDT) and environmental patent registration (EPR) in the BRICS economies between 2000 and 2022 are the focus of this study. This study investigates the relationship between CPU and green innovation using a rigorous methodological approach utilizing the FMOLS and CS-ARDL models. To account for the various factors influencing green innovation, the analysis includes a range of financial and economic indicators, including real interest rates (RIR), GDP FDI inflow, and financial development (FD). The results show that CPU has a significant negative impact on both EDT and EPR, indicating that the development and registration of environmental technologies are hampered by higher policy uncertainty. In contrast, positive effects on GDP FD and FDI encourage the development and adoption of green innovations. A further finding of the study is that investments in green technology are negatively impacted by RIRs' higher borrowing costs. The ramifications of these findings underscore the need for legislators to guarantee predictability and stability in regulations to promote green innovation. By creating a more uniform set of regulations, governments can encourage investment in and progress in environmental technologies. The research's novelty is found as it expands the existing literature exploring the impact of other types of uncertainties on green innovation, while the current analysis focuses on CPU-green innovation adoption nexus.
{"title":"How does climate policy uncertainty determine green innovation adoption? New perspectives from the BRICS","authors":"Samar S. Alharbi , Mosab I. Tabash , Umar Farooq , Suzan Sameer Issa","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The lack of information on climate policies designed by the government may lead to disruptive policies (specifically policies related to environmental sustainability) by the other sectors. The primary objective of the current study is to examine how climate policy uncertainty (CPU) affects the adoption of sustainable green innovations. The effects of CPU on environmental technology development (EDT) and environmental patent registration (EPR) in the BRICS economies between 2000 and 2022 are the focus of this study. This study investigates the relationship between CPU and green innovation using a rigorous methodological approach utilizing the FMOLS and CS-ARDL models. To account for the various factors influencing green innovation, the analysis includes a range of financial and economic indicators, including real interest rates (RIR), GDP FDI inflow, and financial development (FD). The results show that CPU has a significant negative impact on both EDT and EPR, indicating that the development and registration of environmental technologies are hampered by higher policy uncertainty. In contrast, positive effects on GDP FD and FDI encourage the development and adoption of green innovations. A further finding of the study is that investments in green technology are negatively impacted by RIRs' higher borrowing costs. The ramifications of these findings underscore the need for legislators to guarantee predictability and stability in regulations to promote green innovation. By creating a more uniform set of regulations, governments can encourage investment in and progress in environmental technologies. The research's novelty is found as it expands the existing literature exploring the impact of other types of uncertainties on green innovation, while the current analysis focuses on CPU-green innovation adoption nexus.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00411"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410
Henrik Müller , Boris Blagov , Torsten Schmidt , Jonas Rieger , Carsten Jentsch
Political shocks impact the economy in different ways, depending of their nature. To capture these effects effectively, we present the Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) based on German newspaper content. This approach combines the time-inherent stability of simple counts of articles with the thematic openness and flexibility of topic models. Using the dynamic RollingLDA technique facilitates the close-to-real-time identification of both the magnitude of an uncertainty shock and its specific characteristics. Hence, the UPI could prove highly useful for economic forecasters and policymakers, since it renders possible more timely and targeted policy reactions.
Employing a Bayesian VAR approach, we analyze the effects of various UPI shocks on fixed investment and other macroeconomic variables. Our results document the asymmetric nature of uncertainty shocks, as their consequences are dependent on the respective sources of uncertainty. We find that international shocks only have weak effects on the German macroeconomy, while domestic policy shocks prove to be highly significant. These results markedly differ from earlier studies that, in the case of Germany, tend to maintain the opposite.
{"title":"The macroeconomic impact of asymmetric uncertainty shocks","authors":"Henrik Müller , Boris Blagov , Torsten Schmidt , Jonas Rieger , Carsten Jentsch","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00410","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political shocks impact the economy in different ways, depending of their nature. To capture these effects effectively, we present the Uncertainty Perception Indicator (UPI) based on German newspaper content. This approach combines the time-inherent stability of simple counts of articles with the thematic openness and flexibility of topic models. Using the dynamic RollingLDA technique facilitates the close-to-real-time identification of both the magnitude of an uncertainty shock and its specific characteristics. Hence, the UPI could prove highly useful for economic forecasters and policymakers, since it renders possible more timely and targeted policy reactions.</div><div>Employing a Bayesian VAR approach, we analyze the effects of various UPI shocks on fixed investment and other macroeconomic variables. Our results document the asymmetric nature of uncertainty shocks, as their consequences are dependent on the respective sources of uncertainty. We find that international shocks only have weak effects on the German macroeconomy, while domestic policy shocks prove to be highly significant. These results markedly differ from earlier studies that, in the case of Germany, tend to maintain the opposite.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00410"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409
Shoaib Ali , Ghulame Rubbaniy , Costas Syriopoulos , Kienpin Tee
This study examines how bank diversification affects liquidity creation by using the bank level data of GCC countries. We use data from 205 banks in GCC over the period of 2005–2019. To test the hypothesized relationship, we employ the GMM methodological framework. The findings of the study reveal that both income and asset diversification adversely affect the narrow and broad measure of banks' liquidity creation. However, funding diversification positively(negatively) influences the broad(narrow) measure of liquidity creation. The results highlight that bank diversification is a double-edged sword; although it can help in reducing risk, but it also vanishes the banks' ability to create liquidity. However, the in-depth and detailed analyses reveal that the impact is asymmetrical across large, small, well-capitalized, and undercapitalized banks. Furthermore, comparing the normal and crisis periods highlights that banks behave differently in different economic conditions. The results have several implications for the bank managers and decision makers; they must consider the trade-off between liquidity creation and level of diversification. Additionally, the asymmetry in results implies that managers must consider the level/bank's specific characteristics while making such strategic decisions.
{"title":"Asymmetric relationship between diversification and liquidity creation: Empirical evidence from GCC","authors":"Shoaib Ali , Ghulame Rubbaniy , Costas Syriopoulos , Kienpin Tee","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how bank diversification affects liquidity creation by using the bank level data of GCC countries. We use data from 205 banks in GCC over the period of 2005–2019. To test the hypothesized relationship, we employ the GMM methodological framework. The findings of the study reveal that both income and asset diversification adversely affect the narrow and broad measure of banks' liquidity creation. However, funding diversification positively(negatively) influences the broad(narrow) measure of liquidity creation. The results highlight that bank diversification is a double-edged sword; although it can help in reducing risk, but it also vanishes the banks' ability to create liquidity. However, the in-depth and detailed analyses reveal that the impact is asymmetrical across large, small, well-capitalized, and undercapitalized banks. Furthermore, comparing the normal and crisis periods highlights that banks behave differently in different economic conditions. The results have several implications for the bank managers and decision makers; they must consider the trade-off between liquidity creation and level of diversification. Additionally, the asymmetry in results implies that managers must consider the level/bank's specific characteristics while making such strategic decisions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00409"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143550343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408
Keerthana Sunny George , M. Ramachandran
This paper investigates whether the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in the foreign exchange market has preference asymmetry and also attempts to find out whether reserve accumulation is significantly an outcome of such an asymmetric intervention. In this regard, we construct quarterly models of reserve demand wherein shocks to rupee appreciation and depreciation with their pace are included to capture the asymmetry in intervention, apart from incorporating certain key control variables as determinants. The econometric estimates obtained from the autoregressive distributed lag model confirm that intervention reflects asymmetric preference; the authority seems to tame rupee appreciation more aggressively than rupee depreciation of the same magnitude. Moreover, the reaction to pace of rupee appreciation is found to be much stronger than to pace of rupee depreciation; thus, providing additional support for the asymmetry in intervention. Further, the empirical results are subjected to robustness check and the evidence remains robust to an alternative definition of reserves. The overall evidence, thus, suggests that there is a fear of currency appreciation, which appears to be one of the important factors behind the large stockpile of reserves in India.
{"title":"Can fear of currency appreciation gear up reserve accretion?","authors":"Keerthana Sunny George , M. Ramachandran","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00408","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether the Reserve Bank of India's intervention in the foreign exchange market has preference asymmetry and also attempts to find out whether reserve accumulation is significantly an outcome of such an asymmetric intervention. In this regard, we construct quarterly models of reserve demand wherein shocks to rupee appreciation and depreciation with their pace are included to capture the asymmetry in intervention, apart from incorporating certain key control variables as determinants. The econometric estimates obtained from the autoregressive distributed lag model confirm that intervention reflects asymmetric preference; the authority seems to tame rupee appreciation more aggressively than rupee depreciation of the same magnitude. Moreover, the reaction to pace of rupee appreciation is found to be much stronger than to pace of rupee depreciation; thus, providing additional support for the asymmetry in intervention. Further, the empirical results are subjected to robustness check and the evidence remains robust to an alternative definition of reserves. The overall evidence, thus, suggests that there is a fear of currency appreciation, which appears to be one of the important factors behind the large stockpile of reserves in India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00408"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00406
Alex Maynard , Alessandra Pelloni
{"title":"Editorial: Asymmetries in applied macro and financial modeling and econometrics","authors":"Alex Maynard , Alessandra Pelloni","doi":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00406","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00406","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38259,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Asymmetries","volume":"31 ","pages":"Article e00406"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143904573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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