Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献

英文中文

Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risks on energy Trade: Divergent vulnerabilities in emerging vs. advanced economies 地缘政治风险对能源贸易的不对称影响：新兴经济体与发达经济体的不同脆弱性

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-06-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00427

Chokri Zehri , Abdullah Alsadan , Latifa Saleh ben Ammar

This study investigates the system-wide consequences of rising geopolitical risks (GPR) on global energy trade, emphasizing asymmetric vulnerabilities between emerging market economies (EMEs) and advanced economies (AEs)—a critical gap in existing scholarship. Combining autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and impulse response analyses on 55 countries (1990–2023), we assess how geopolitical tensions disrupt energy trade dynamics, accounting for global volatility and domestic economic conditions. Our findings uncover marked asymmetries: while geopolitical risks persistently suppress energy trade, with long-term effects outweighing transient shocks, EMEs are disproportionately destabilized due to their heavy reliance on energy exports and weaker institutional capacity. AEs, conversely, demonstrate greater resilience through diversified economies, strategic reserves, and policy flexibility, though post-2008 geopolitical fragmentation and financial instability intensify disruptions across all economies. Impulse response simulations reveal that geopolitical shocks trigger sharper declines in energy trade flows for EMEs, with steeper and more prolonged contractions than AEs. Compounding these unequal burdens, escalating trade taxes strain EMEs’ fiscal stability and energy security, whereas AEs deploy fiscal buffers to cushion shocks. By exposing how geopolitical risks cascade through energy systems, the study underscores the urgency of multilateral cooperation to address structurally embedded asymmetries, particularly the fragility of EMEs in global energy frameworks.

本研究探讨了不断上升的地缘政治风险（GPR）对全球能源贸易的全系统后果，强调了新兴市场经济体（eme）和发达经济体（ae）之间的不对称脆弱性——这是现有学术研究中的一个重大缺口。结合自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型和对55个国家（1990-2023）的脉冲响应分析，我们评估了地缘政治紧张局势如何破坏能源贸易动态，考虑到全球波动和国内经济状况。我们的研究结果揭示了明显的不对称性：地缘政治风险持续抑制能源贸易，其长期影响超过短暂冲击，而新兴市场由于严重依赖能源出口和较弱的制度能力而不成比例地不稳定。相反，发达国家通过经济多元化、战略储备和政策灵活性表现出更强的抵御能力，尽管2008年后地缘政治碎片化和金融不稳定加剧了所有经济体的破坏。脉冲响应模拟显示，地缘政治冲击引发新兴市场国家能源贸易流量急剧下降，收缩幅度更大、持续时间更长。不断升级的贸易税加剧了这些不平等负担，给新兴市场国家的财政稳定和能源安全带来压力，而发达国家则利用财政缓冲来缓冲冲击。通过揭示地缘政治风险如何在能源系统中层叠蔓延，该研究强调了多边合作解决结构性不对称的紧迫性，特别是新兴市场在全球能源框架中的脆弱性。

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引用次数: 0

Energy price dynamics in the face of uncertainty shocks and the role of exchange rate regimes: A global cross-country analysis 面对不确定性冲击的能源价格动态和汇率制度的作用：全球跨国分析

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00425

António Afonso , José Alves , João Jalles , Sofia Monteiro

This paper investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) and global uncertainty (WUI) on energy prices across 185 economies from 1980 to 2023, while accounting for the role of exchange rate regimes. Using a panel fixed-effects model and a panel SVAR framework, we examine whether uncertainty shocks translate into energy price inflation and how exchange rate regimes influence these dynamics. The results indicate that geopolitical risk and global uncertainty have significant effects on energy prices, with stronger price reactions under flexible exchange rate regimes. We further decompose the effects by country classification, revealing that oil-exporting economies and emerging markets exhibit distinct responses. Our findings highlight the importance of exchange rate policies in mitigating uncertainty-driven energy price volatility. The paper contributes to the literature by providing a global empirical perspective on uncertainty-energy price interactions, with relevant implications for policymakers managing exchange rate regimes and energy market stability.

本文研究了1980年至2023年间地缘政治风险（GPR）和全球不确定性（WUI）对185个经济体能源价格的影响，同时考虑了汇率制度的作用。使用面板固定效应模型和面板SVAR框架，我们研究了不确定性冲击是否转化为能源价格通胀，以及汇率制度如何影响这些动态。结果表明，地缘政治风险和全球不确定性对能源价格有显著影响，弹性汇率制度下的价格反应更强。我们进一步按国家分类分解影响，发现石油出口经济体和新兴市场表现出不同的反应。我们的研究结果强调了汇率政策在缓解不确定性驱动的能源价格波动方面的重要性。本文通过提供不确定性-能源价格相互作用的全球经验视角，为政策制定者管理汇率制度和能源市场稳定提供了相关启示，从而对文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Monetary alignment or divergence? - Exchange rates and economic dynamics in non-euro European countries 货币政策趋同还是分化？-非欧元欧洲国家的汇率和经济动态

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-05-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00421

Apostolos Kiohos , Nikolaos Stoupos

The far-reaching impacts of the euro's introduction in 1999 have reshaped Europe's monetary landscape, extending integration even to non-euro economies. The primary aim of this paper is to examine whether the non-euro European economies are monetarily linked to the Euro Area. Using economic indicators from nine European countries, alongside the Eurozone, and employing SVECM models, this research assesses the degree of monetary integration. The empirical findings strongly indicate that the economies of Poland, Romania, Sweden and Norway have been positively bound and highly integrated with the Eurozone since the euro's launch. Moreover, the economies of Czechia and Hungary have demonstrated a steady and increasing level of monetary integration with the Eurozone over time. In contrast, the economies of Iceland, Switzerland, and the UK exhibit monetary divergence from the Eurozone. Based on these findings, the research proposes that Poland and Romania may need to explore the possibility of joining the Euro Area, while Norway and Sweden may (re)consider their stance on potential EU or EMU membership, respectively. The results underscore that the creation of the Eurozone and the circulation of the euro have played a significant role in facilitating and advancing monetary integration across Europe.

1999年欧元的引入产生了深远的影响，重塑了欧洲的货币格局，甚至将一体化扩展到了非欧元经济体。本文的主要目的是考察非欧元区的欧洲经济体是否与欧元区有货币联系。本研究使用来自9个欧洲国家和欧元区的经济指标，并采用SVECM模型来评估货币一体化程度。实证研究结果强烈表明，自欧元启动以来，波兰、罗马尼亚、瑞典和挪威的经济与欧元区有着积极的联系和高度的融合。此外，随着时间的推移，捷克和匈牙利的经济与欧元区的货币一体化水平稳步上升。相比之下，冰岛、瑞士和英国的经济表现出与欧元区的货币差异。基于这些发现，研究建议波兰和罗马尼亚可能需要探索加入欧元区的可能性，而挪威和瑞典可能（重新）考虑他们对潜在的欧盟或欧洲货币联盟成员的立场。结果强调，欧元区的创建和欧元的流通在促进和推进整个欧洲的货币一体化方面发挥了重要作用。

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引用次数: 0

Is fiscal countercyclicality growth enhancing? Evidence from developing countries over the period 1990–2019 财政逆周期增长增强了吗？来自发展中国家1990-2019年的证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00416

Sami Kallal

The objective of this paper is to analyze the time-varying effect of improving fiscal countercyclicality on growth for a sample of 35 developing countries over the period 1990–2019. By estimating a time-varying coefficient for fiscal countercyclicality, incorporated as a variable in a panel model, we first examine how the public debt ratio and electoral motivations influence the ability to adopt countercyclical policies. Secondly, we show that greater countercyclicality positively affects economic growth and contributes to reducing the output gap, particularly during recessions, by channeling production towards its potential path. Finally, our findings are confirmed across two sub-samples, demonstrating a positive effect on growth before the 2008 crisis and a reduction in the output gap both before and after the crisis. The effect is stronger in the sub-sample characterized by high income, low debt, and strong control of corruption, suggesting that the effectiveness of countercyclical policies depends on macroeconomic and institutional factors.

Countercyclical fiscal management should therefore be given greater consideration by fiscal policymakers in developing countries, both upstream and downstream.

本文的目的是分析1990年至2019年期间35个发展中国家改善财政逆周期性对经济增长的时变效应。通过估计财政逆周期的时变系数，并将其作为一个变量纳入面板模型，我们首先研究了公共债务比率和选举动机如何影响采取逆周期政策的能力。其次，我们表明，更大的反周期效应会对经济增长产生积极影响，并有助于减少产出缺口，特别是在经济衰退期间，通过将生产引导至潜在路径。最后，我们的研究结果在两个子样本中得到了证实，表明在2008年危机前对经济增长有积极影响，在危机前后都缩小了产出缺口。在高收入、低债务和严格控制腐败的子样本中，这种效应更强，这表明逆周期政策的有效性取决于宏观经济和制度因素。因此，发展中国家上下游的财政政策制定者都应更多地考虑反周期财政管理。

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引用次数: 0

Does economic convergence diverge along the income distribution? Evidence from a decile-based analysis 经济趋同是否沿着收入分配而分化？来自十分位数分析的证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-05-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00419

Marco Amendola

This paper contributes to the literature on economic convergence by exploring an overlooked aspect: the potential heterogeneity of convergence processes across different segments of the income distribution. While previous analyses have typically focused on per capita income or GDP, this study adopts a more granular perspective by examining convergence at per capita income deciles. Drawing on data from 25 countries spanning 1980 to 2019, the analysis reveals a distinct pattern of divergence in the convergence process: higher-income deciles exhibit stronger convergence than lower-income ones, with this divergence widening in recent decades. These findings highlight the uneven nature of economic convergence, demonstrating that reducing cross-country income disparities is especially challenging for low-income groups — those most in need of improved well-being and economic catch-up.

本文通过探索一个被忽视的方面来为经济趋同的文献做出贡献：在收入分配的不同部分之间，趋同过程的潜在异质性。虽然以前的分析通常集中在人均收入或GDP上，但这项研究通过考察人均收入十分位数的趋同，采用了更细致的视角。根据1980年至2019年25个国家的数据，该分析揭示了趋同过程中的一种明显的差异模式：高收入十分位数比低收入十分位数表现出更强的趋同，近几十年来这种差异不断扩大。这些发现突出了经济趋同的不平衡性质，表明减少跨国收入差距对低收入群体尤其具有挑战性，这些群体最需要改善福祉和经济赶超。

引用次数: 0

Collapsing bubbles in the prices of cryptocurrencies 加密货币价格泡沫破裂

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-04-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00420

Chiara Oldani , Giovanni S.F. Bruno , Marcello Signorelli

This paper investigates the existence of bubbles in the daily prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), and Ripple (XRP), employing the recursive methods of Phillips et al. (2015) and Phillips et al. (2011) for testing and date-stamping episodes of exuberant behaviour over a period spanning seven years (2018–2024), including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis (2020–2021). The critical values of the tests are computed through the composite wild bootstrap technique by Phillips and Shi (2020) to make them robust to time-varying unconditional heteroscedasticity and the multiplicity issue in recursive tests. Results indicate that the prices of the most popular cryptocurrencies traded on decentralized ledgers, BTC and ETH, exhibited multiple episodes of exuberant behaviour, unambiguously for BTC and depending on the tests for ETH. Bubbles detected in the prices of BTC were due to the halving of the crypto, to market exuberance and to the pandemic crisis; bubbles detected on ETH prices were due to the launch of NFTs on the Ethereum blockchain, and to the change in investors’ expectations (from exuberant to pessimistic); the change in the stance of monetary policy burst the bubbles of BTC and ETH prices in 2024. No test supports the exuberance of XRP that is traded on a centralized ledger; weekly data confirm the absence of multiple bubbles. By looking at the presence of bubbles in these different digital ecosystems, we also consider how the technological differences can impact, possibly asymmetrically, bubbles' formation.

本文研究了最流行的加密货币比特币（BTC）、以太币（ETH）和瑞波币（XRP）每日价格中泡沫的存在，采用了Phillips等人（2015）和Phillips等人（2011）的递归方法，对七年（2018-2024）期间(包括2019冠状病毒病大流行危机（2020-2021）的繁荣行为进行了测试和日期戳。检验的临界值由Phillips和Shi（2020）通过复合野生自举技术计算，使其对时变无条件异方差和递归检验中的多重性问题具有鲁棒性。结果表明，在去中心化分类账（BTC和ETH）上交易的最受欢迎的加密货币的价格表现出多次旺盛的行为，这显然是针对BTC的，取决于对ETH的测试。在比特币价格中发现的泡沫是由于加密货币减半、市场繁荣和流行病危机；ETH价格的泡沫是由于在以太坊区块链上推出了nft，以及投资者预期的变化（从乐观到悲观）；2024年，货币政策立场的变化打破了比特币和以太坊价格的泡沫。没有测试支持在集中分类账上交易的瑞波币的繁荣；每周数据证实了多重泡沫的存在。通过观察这些不同数字生态系统中泡沫的存在，我们也考虑了技术差异如何影响泡沫的形成，可能是不对称的。

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引用次数: 0

Local financial distress and fiscal regimes: Evidence from Italy 地方财政困境与财政制度：来自意大利的证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00418

Cristiana Fiorelli , Nicola Pontarollo , Carolina Serpieri

This paper investigates how fiscal regulation may influence lower government finances by devolving greater responsibilities to local policymakers that limit free-riding behaviour and ensure fiscal sustainability. To this extent, the Italian case provides a suitable regulatory setting that has evolved over the years, as almost 600 Italian municipalities experienced financial distress from 1989 to 2018. The aim of this study is two-fold: i) to investigate the historical and geographical evolution of local government bankruptcy procedures and ii) to test whether the exogenous Italian legislation on local government defaults influenced the dynamics of the local financial distress phenomenon, identifying three different fiscal regulatory regimes. Our results show that the regulatory regimes until 2000, which prepared for the government bail-out of local defaults, encouraged municipalities to take advantage of the bankruptcy procedures and after 2001, when the legislative interventions had been updated, there is no longer such incentive. Asymmetric effects are observed when municipalities are analysed by population size, pointing to the need to go beyond a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal policy.

本文研究了财政监管如何通过向地方决策者下放更多责任来影响下级政府的财政，从而限制搭便车行为并确保财政可持续性。在这种情况下，意大利的案例提供了一个合适的监管环境，从 1989 年到 2018 年，近 600 个意大利市政当局经历了财政困难，多年来不断演变。本研究的目的有两个：i) 调查地方政府破产程序的历史和地理演变；ii) 检验意大利关于地方政府违约的外生立法是否影响了地方财政困境现象的动态发展，确定三种不同的财政监管制度。我们的研究结果表明，2000 年之前的监管制度为政府救助地方违约企业做好了准备，鼓励市政当局利用破产程序，而 2001 年之后，随着立法干预措施的更新，这种激励作用不再存在。如果按人口规模对各市进行分析，就会发现不对称效应，这说明在财政政策方面不能采取一刀切的做法。

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引用次数: 0

Aid and growth: Asymmetric effects? 援助和增长：不对称效应？

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00417

Leo M. Doerr

This study explores potential asymmetries in the relationship between development aid and economic growth. Our analysis reveals that while previous research identifies small positive growth effects of aid, these results stem from the adverse impact of aid reductions, with no corresponding positive effect from aid increases. This suggests that aid acts more as a substitute for domestic resources than as a catalyst for growth. Combining dynamic generalized method of moments techniques with asymmetric effect analysis, we provide a new methodological framework that addresses both unbalanced effects and endogeneity of aid, offering new insights into the aid-growth nexus.

本研究探讨了发展援助与经济增长之间潜在的不对称关系。我们的分析表明，虽然之前的研究发现援助对经济增长有很小的积极影响，但这些结果源于援助减少的不利影响，而援助增加没有相应的积极影响。这表明，援助更多的是国内资源的替代品，而不是增长的催化剂。将动态广义矩量法技术与非对称效应分析相结合，我们提供了一个新的方法框架，既解决了援助的不平衡效应，也解决了援助的内生性，为援助与增长之间的关系提供了新的见解。

引用次数: 0

Explaining the asymmetric S&P 500 equity index in five themes: The success and failure of macro narratives 用五个主题解释标准普尔500指数的不对称：宏观叙事的成功与失败

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00415

A.G. Malliaris , Mary Malliaris , Mark S. Rzepczynski

Economists often use narratives that focus on a limited number of variables to describe stock market behavior. We use a neural network methodology to evaluate the appropriateness of five common narratives. Four narratives address the themes of monetary policy and financial conditions, the real macroeconomy, the global economy, and the stock market fundamentals. The fifth is a unified theme combining the best features from the previous four-macro narratives. Theme based neural network models highlight the successes and periodic failures of macro factor narratives. This paper confirms the usefulness of the narrative themes proposed to explain the asymmetric behavior of the S&P 500 Index. The monetary and unified themes perform the best.

经济学家经常使用关注有限数量变量的叙述来描述股市行为。我们使用神经网络方法来评估五种常见叙事的适当性。四种叙述涉及货币政策和金融状况、实体宏观经济、全球经济和股市基本面等主题。第五个是一个统一的主题，结合了前四个宏观叙事的最佳特征。基于主题的神经网络模型强调宏观因素叙事的成功和周期性失败。本文证实了在解释标普500指数不对称行为时提出的叙事主题的有效性。货币和统一主题表现最好。

引用次数: 0

Herding effect of both global and local crises in BRICS countries 金砖国家全球性和地方性危机的羊群效应

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Economic Asymmetries

Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00407

Marija Tatomir, Norio Hibiki

This research addresses the asymmetric acknowledgment given to local versus global crises, particularly within the BRICS nations. Local crises often surpass global events in their impact but remain underexplored. Using a comprehensive approach combining Financial and Economic, Public Sentiment, and Governance data, the research applies a novel Axiom and Inference model to identify overlooked crises. Results indicate that local crises in BRICS countries have measurable impacts exceeding global benchmarks, with distinctive patterns of herding behaviour: China primarily responds to global crises, India reacts equally to both, and Brazil, Russia, and South Africa exhibit stronger herding during local crises. The findings challenge traditional crisis frameworks, emphasizing the need to recognize and address local and non-financial crises to mitigate their potential escalation into global phenomena.

本研究解决了对地方危机与全球危机的不对称认识，特别是在金砖国家内部。地方危机的影响往往超过全球事件，但仍未得到充分探讨。该研究采用综合的方法，结合了金融和经济、公众情绪和治理数据，应用了一种新的公理和推理模型来识别被忽视的危机。结果表明，金砖国家的地方危机具有超过全球基准的可衡量影响，具有独特的羊群行为模式：中国主要对全球危机做出反应，印度对两者的反应相同，巴西、俄罗斯和南非在地方危机期间表现出更强的羊群行为。研究结果挑战了传统的危机框架，强调有必要认识和解决地方和非金融危机，以减轻其升级为全球现象的可能性。

引用次数: 0

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