Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献

In the New-Keynesian model augmented with non-Ricardian households (breakdown of the Ricardian equivalence), the elasticity of aggregate demand to changes in real interest rate is linked non-linearly to the share of non-Ricardian households. Importantly, this dependence may result in an upward-sloping dynamic New-Keynesian IS curve. Using an extended fractionally cointegrated VAR model in a recursive framework, we empirically test this for the US from 1959 to 2024, finding a positive long-run relationship between consumption and interest rates from 1980 to 1992, and a negative one from 1993 onwards, with a stronger negative correlation after 2000. These results suggest shifts in asset market participation, altering equilibrium dynamics in the goods market. We analytically show that when non-Ricardian households surpass a certain threshold, output adjusts to excess supply rather than demand, imposing novel restrictions on the New-Keynesian Phillips curve to maintain equilibrium determinacy. These bounds on the New-Keynesian Phillips curve slope under varying inflation targeting rules offer a new perspective on monetary policy design.

Using Panel data, GMM and GLS econometric models, and a sample of six Mediterranean (MED) countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia) over the period 2002–2023, this paper assesses empirically the impact of financial inclusion on income inequality, poverty, and financial stability asymmetries in the MED region. While the empirical literature covering the region is relatively scarce, this paper adds to that literature by bridging a significant existing gap, especially in the aftermath of the recent financial and debt crises and the recent political and social turmoil that have been unfolding in several MED countries. Our empirical results show that financial inclusion decreases inequality but has no significant effect on poverty. Other empirical results show that while the empirical evidence indicates that enhanced financial integration is a contributing factor to financial instability in the MED region, an increase in financial inclusion and in population contributes positively to financial stability.

In this article, we apply three different specifications of a monetary policy rule to reveal the interest rate preferences of the national central bank governors of the euro area. These preferences are combined with information from the ECB rotation model to determine whether a central bank governor was allowed to vote at a certain meeting. Finally, we empirically test whether non-voting governors or specific countries are worse off when not allowed to vote compared to a situation where they have a voting right. Our results indicate that there are only very few occasions where this is indeed the case. Thus, we conclude that the current form of the rotation model in the euro area does not discriminate any national governor or country.

There is consensus among scholars and policymakers alike that economic stability significantly affects the financial sector of an economy. In this context, the present paper explores the possible asymmetric impact of macroeconomic stability on the Indian financial sector for the period 1975–2021. To capture the asymmetry, this study adopts the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model. Furthermore, this study examines the asymmetric causal flow between macroeconomic stability and financial development using the new asymmetric causality test proposed by Hatemi-j (2012). The results demonstrate that macroeconomic instability hurts financial development and that this effect is asymmetrical in nature. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that per capita real income has a positive impact on financial development, supporting the demand-led hypothesis in the finance growth nexus. The results further demonstrate that the causal relationship is asymmetric. There is a unidirectional, asymmetrical causal flow from positive shock in financial development to positive shock in inflation. Overall, we conclude that the benefits of financial sector reforms are contingent upon economic stability. This implies that Indian policymakers must prioritize economic stability over financial reforms, emphasizing that future policy formulation should be contingent on cyclical periods.

Cohesion policy and the EU funds have been key elements for territorial integration in Europe. Evidence shows that EU funds support the growth performance of regions. However, less has been discussed about the potential impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the effectiveness of EU funds. Our analyses confirm that EU funds are important in understanding regional economic growth differences. However, the extent of macroeconomic uncertainty decreases the effectiveness of the EU funds. Our results are robust in including local controls, non-linearity of the EU funds’ effect, different EU fund categories, and regional heterogeneity in the EU.

This paper examines the asymmetric impacts of climate policy uncertainty (CPU), and geopolitical risk (GPR) on US green bond (GB) returns. By using the non-linear ARDL model and monthly data for GB, CPU and GPR from January 2016 to August 2022, our empirical findings show that in the short run, GB returns are negatively affected by both positive and negative shocks to GPR. In the long term, GB returns are positively impacted by negative shocks in GPR and negatively affected by positive shocks in GPR. CPU on the other hand shows an insignificant symmetric effect. These results have vital implications for policymakers and fund managers. Policymakers should consider implementing policies that reduce uncertainties and ensure stability in the green bond market. For fund managers, there is the need to adopt dynamic approaches to portfolio management, considering the evolving nature of geopolitical risks and their impact on green bond performance.

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of interest rate innovations on financial stress during times of conventional and unconventional monetary policy. We employ the methodology of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to examine the possible asymmetries between different monetary policy stances of the Fed and the ECB. The period under examination spans from 1999 to 2023, when the two central banks were active in conducting quantitative easing (QE) operations. The evidence reveals that the effects of implementing a contractionary or an expansionary monetary policy on financial stress are sign- and size-specific.

The local public transportation (LPT) system is crucial for the growth and competitiveness of regions. The efficiency of service providers and the chosen procurement system significantly influence the LPT system’s operational dynamics. This study combines an analysis of service contract determinants with a comprehensive examination of company ownership impacts and LPT service procurement dynamics in major Italian cities. Using a GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Shape, and Scale) approach, the study identifies key factors influencing contract outcomes. This study reveals the complex interplay of cost factors, ownership models, and geographical disparities, offering valuable insights for policymakers and public transportation professionals.

We build a model of firms' choice between regular and irregular labor factors which links the cost efficiency of banks to the size of the underground economy. We consider two kinds of credit institutions supplying loans to the firms, cooperative and non-cooperative banks. The theoretical results show that cost-efficiency encourages firms to hire more regular workers. We then test our theoretical predictions using regional data for Italy over the 2004–2017 and assess how the efficiency of cooperative and non-cooperative banks, shapes the underground economy. In line with our theoretical prediction, increased cost efficiency reduces the size of the underground economy, especially in building and agriculture, and the estimated coefficients for the different types of banks are quite similar in size. Our evidence is robust to banks’ size, once we control for the likely simultaneity between cost efficiency and the underground economy and once we include the quality of institutions.

This paper studies the characteristics of Spanish and Portuguese business cycles over around 150 years. We estimate a time-varying multi-country Bayesian Vector Autoregression, jointly modeling real and financial variables for Portugal and Spain to investigate convergence and synchronization. The primary evidence indicates a consistent common component linking the business cycles of the two nations. Fiscal policy harmonization and financial market integration have been successful, as seen in the converging trends of stock prices and budget deficits. However, this does not extend to credit and country spreads, where idiosyncratic dynamics continue to be significant and are unlikely to diminish in the near future, which can pose challenges in implementing further policies like the Euro.