Journal of Economic Asymmetries最新文献

In the New-Keynesian model augmented with non-Ricardian households (breakdown of the Ricardian equivalence), the elasticity of aggregate demand to changes in real interest rate is linked non-linearly to the share of non-Ricardian households. Importantly, this dependence may result in an upward-sloping dynamic New-Keynesian IS curve. Using an extended fractionally cointegrated VAR model in a recursive framework, we empirically test this for the US from 1959 to 2024, finding a positive long-run relationship between consumption and interest rates from 1980 to 1992, and a negative one from 1993 onwards, with a stronger negative correlation after 2000. These results suggest shifts in asset market participation, altering equilibrium dynamics in the goods market. We analytically show that when non-Ricardian households surpass a certain threshold, output adjusts to excess supply rather than demand, imposing novel restrictions on the New-Keynesian Phillips curve to maintain equilibrium determinacy. These bounds on the New-Keynesian Phillips curve slope under varying inflation targeting rules offer a new perspective on monetary policy design.

In this article, we apply three different specifications of a monetary policy rule to reveal the interest rate preferences of the national central bank governors of the euro area. These preferences are combined with information from the ECB rotation model to determine whether a central bank governor was allowed to vote at a certain meeting. Finally, we empirically test whether non-voting governors or specific countries are worse off when not allowed to vote compared to a situation where they have a voting right. Our results indicate that there are only very few occasions where this is indeed the case. Thus, we conclude that the current form of the rotation model in the euro area does not discriminate any national governor or country.

The local public transportation (LPT) system is crucial for the growth and competitiveness of regions. The efficiency of service providers and the chosen procurement system significantly influence the LPT system’s operational dynamics. This study combines an analysis of service contract determinants with a comprehensive examination of company ownership impacts and LPT service procurement dynamics in major Italian cities. Using a GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Shape, and Scale) approach, the study identifies key factors influencing contract outcomes. This study reveals the complex interplay of cost factors, ownership models, and geographical disparities, offering valuable insights for policymakers and public transportation professionals.

Given the pivotal role of inflation expectations in contemporary monetary policy, we posit that if monetary policy has effectively influenced inflation expectations, thereby altering the trajectory of total inflation, a structural break in the path of total inflation should be observable. Conversely, if inflation expectations have remained stable and monetary policy has had limited impact, a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model should adequately describe the path of total inflation. To address these hypotheses, a non-linear specification of a threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed, offering a comprehensive analytical framework for the examination of these dynamics.

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of interest rate innovations on financial stress during times of conventional and unconventional monetary policy. We employ the methodology of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011) to examine the possible asymmetries between different monetary policy stances of the Fed and the ECB. The period under examination spans from 1999 to 2023, when the two central banks were active in conducting quantitative easing (QE) operations. The evidence reveals that the effects of implementing a contractionary or an expansionary monetary policy on financial stress are sign- and size-specific.

Access to higher education in several countries still has many barriers, mainly represented by the high cost of tuition fees. Given the importance of higher education for innovation and economic growth, this paper analyzes the best financing scheme for needy students. Using an asymmetric information model, the paper shows that student loans involve a moral hazard problem with sub-optimal levels of effort and quality of education, and are socially inefficient and inequitable. On the other hand, merit-based scholarships and need-based grants pose no moral hazard, are socially efficient, and are no more expensive than alternative financing schemes. In particular, while scholarships may be more cost-effective than grants, the latter allow to achieve directly the first best. The paper also examines loan forgiveness policies and talent funding. The results of the model are supported by a large strand of empirical literature.