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Is the response of the Slovak labor market asymmetric to output changes? 斯洛伐克劳动力市场对产出变化的反应是否不对称?
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00403
Renáta Pitoňáková , Rudolf Kucharčík , Ladislav Kabát
The accession to the European Union, several external shocks, and the questionable state interventions in the country's business environment significantly impacted economic development of Slovakia. These phenomena were reflected in both the economic and social situation, namely the level of Gross domestic product (GDP) and rate of unemployment. The goal of our paper is to analyze the possible asymmetries in the unemployment-output relationship according to the Okun's law. We used quarterly data to apply static and dynamic models in their symmetric and asymmetric forms (2009 Q1 – 2023 Q3). The results suggest that the labor market reacts more noticeably to GDP contraction than to GDP expansion. The outcomes are of interest to governing bodies managing labor market policy, primarily in the economic downturn, and for banks in controlling interest rates and inflation.
加入欧盟、几次外部冲击以及国家对该国商业环境的可疑干预严重影响了斯洛伐克的经济发展。这些现象反映在经济和社会状况上,即国内生产总值水平和失业率。本文的目的是根据奥肯定律分析失业-产出关系中可能存在的不对称性。我们使用季度数据以对称和非对称形式应用静态和动态模型(2009年第一季度- 2023年第三季度)。结果表明,劳动力市场对GDP收缩的反应比对GDP扩张的反应更为明显。这些结果对管理劳动力市场政策的管理机构(主要是在经济低迷时期)和控制利率和通胀的银行都很有意义。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles 关于先前发表的文章中缺少竞争利益声明的勘误表
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00402
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引用次数: 0
Erratum regarding missing Declaration of Competing Interest statements in previously published articles 关于先前发表的文章中缺少竞争利益声明的勘误表
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00401
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引用次数: 0
The asymmetric impact of fiscal decentralization on ecological footprint-accounting for methodological refinements and globalization facets 财政分权对生态足迹的不对称影响——方法改进和全球化方面的核算
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00400
Atrayee Choudhury , Sohini Sahu
In the wake of global climate change, this study tries to reconcile the competing evidence on the fiscal decentralization–environmental sustainability nexus by examining the impact of the regional authority index, a comprehensive index of decentralization, on ecological footprint - a novel and composite indicator of environmental sustainability. Using novel econometric techniques to account for potential asymmetry and endogeneity issues, such as the dynamic panel threshold methodology, and quantile techniques, on a sample of 53 countries over two decades, we find robust evidence that the effect is non-linear and conditional on the degree of fiscal decentralization. Decentralization exerts a favourable impact on ecological footprint in lower regime countries owing to positive externalities, while the adverse impact of the same is observed in higher regime countries due to the “race to the bottom” phenomenon. Furthermore, the mediating channels of political and financial globalization weaken the positive externalities spillover, whereas social and cultural globalization mitigates the “race to the bottom” effect, addressing the on-going debate about the trade-off between globalization and environmental sustainability. The effective mitigation of climate change impacts under sub-national governance is thus conditioned by an optimal mix of decentralization policies at the ground level, backed by global exchange of socio-cultural policies promoting ecological awareness.
在全球气候变化的背景下,本研究试图通过考察区域权力指数(分权的综合指数)对生态足迹(一种新的环境可持续性综合指标)的影响,来调和财政分权与环境可持续性关系的竞争性证据。使用新的计量经济学技术来解释潜在的不对称性和内质性问题,如动态面板阈值方法和分位数技术,在53个国家的20年样本中,我们发现了强有力的证据,表明这种影响是非线性的,并且取决于财政分权的程度。由于正外部性,权力下放对较低制度国家的生态足迹产生了有利影响,而在较高制度国家,由于“逐底竞争”现象,权力下放对生态足迹产生了不利影响。此外,政治和金融全球化的中介渠道削弱了正外部性溢出效应,而社会和文化全球化则缓解了“竞底”效应,解决了关于全球化与环境可持续性之间权衡的持续争论。因此,在次国家治理下有效缓解气候变化影响的条件是,在基层实行权力下放政策的最佳组合,并辅之以促进生态意识的社会文化政策的全球交流。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic asymmetries and their influence on fintech ecosystem growth: A global and regional perspective 宏观经济不对称及其对金融科技生态系统增长的影响:全球和区域视角
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00399
Hassnian Ali , Ahmet Faruk Aysan
This study examines the asymmetric macroeconomic factors influencing the formation and growth of fintech ecosystems across 103 countries from 2005 to 2022, offering both global and regional perspectives. Using a fixed-effects negative binomial regression model as the primary methodology, the research identifies key macroeconomic drivers—such as GDP per capita, inflation, financial development, and real interest rates—whose impacts on fintech formation vary significantly across regions. Additionally, an adapted Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) for count panel data is employed as a supplementary analysis to capture the differential effects of positive and negative changes in macroeconomic variables. The findings reveal how global crises, including the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic, have unevenly disrupted fintech growth, exposing regional vulnerabilities and opportunities. Europe's fintech expansion is primarily driven by investments in education and human capital, while Asia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are more responsive to macroeconomic stability. In contrast, African fintech ecosystems rely heavily on financial development to foster growth. Robustness checks with lagged variables further validate the temporal effects of these drivers, emphasizing their long-term implications. By exploring the role of macroeconomic asymmetries in shaping fintech ecosystems, this study provides critical insights for policymakers and investors aiming to enhance resilience and foster sustainable growth tailored to the distinct economic environments of each region.
本研究考察了2005年至2022年间影响103个国家金融科技生态系统形成和发展的不对称宏观经济因素,提供了全球和区域视角。该研究使用固定效应负二项回归模型作为主要方法,确定了关键的宏观经济驱动因素,如人均GDP、通货膨胀、金融发展和实际利率,这些因素对金融科技形成的影响在不同地区差异很大。此外,采用一种适用于计数面板数据的非对称误差修正模型(AECM)作为补充分析,以捕捉宏观经济变量的积极和消极变化的差异效应。调查结果揭示了包括全球金融危机和2019冠状病毒病大流行在内的全球危机如何不均匀地扰乱了金融科技增长,暴露了区域脆弱性和机遇。欧洲的金融科技扩张主要是由教育和人力资本投资推动的,而亚洲和海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家对宏观经济稳定的响应更大。相比之下,非洲金融科技生态系统严重依赖金融发展来促进增长。对滞后变量的稳健性检查进一步验证了这些驱动因素的时间效应,强调了它们的长期影响。通过探索宏观经济不对称在塑造金融科技生态系统中的作用,本研究为决策者和投资者提供了重要见解,旨在增强弹性,促进适应每个地区独特经济环境的可持续增长。
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引用次数: 0
Alternative monetary policy rules in an imperfectly competitive DSGE model with asymmetric price adjustment 具有非对称价格调整的不完全竞争DSGE模型中的可选货币政策规则
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00397
George Alogoskoufis, Stelios Giannoulakis
In this paper we study optimal central bank interest rate policy, and compare it to interest rate rules, such as the Wicksell (1898), Fisher (1919) and Taylor (1993) rules, in an imperfectly competitive DSGE model of aggregate fluctuations. We demonstrate that in versions of the model with full price and wage adjustment, or staggered price-setting, the optimal policy rule is the Fisher rule of absolute inflation stabilization. We also analyze a version of the model with exogenous inflation shocks and asymmetric price adjustment, in which the “divine coincidence” does not apply. In this case, the optimal monetary policy rule takes the form of a Taylor rule, the parameters of which depend on the structural and policy parameters of the model.
在本文中,我们研究了最优中央银行利率政策,并将其与Wicksell(1898)、Fisher(1919)和Taylor(1993)规则等利率规则在不完全竞争DSGE总波动模型中进行了比较。我们证明了在具有完全价格和工资调整或交错价格设定的模型版本中,最优政策规则是绝对通货膨胀稳定的费雪规则。我们还分析了外生通胀冲击和不对称价格调整的模型版本,其中“神圣巧合”不适用。在这种情况下,最优货币政策规则采用泰勒规则的形式,其参数取决于模型的结构参数和政策参数。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on gender labor market asymmetries in Germany 新冠肺炎疫情对德国性别劳动力市场不对称的影响
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00396
Timo Baas
The Corona pandemic affected life and working conditions around the world. Some could work from home, some had to risk their lives at the workplace, and some got laid off. The selection of employees to one of these groups, however, was asymmetric about gender. More than 63 percent of employees providing services in Germany are female; females in health professions account for more than 75 percent, and in social professions, including daycare, the share of female employees is at 84 percent. These occupations were in high demand during the pandemic and cannot be practiced at home. Since women do more than 62 percent of housework and childcare, the high demand for female work creates a dilemma. While family obligations increased as childcare facilities and schools closed, women had to decide whether to remain or drop out of the labor market. In this paper’s estimated DSGE model, these choices are addressed by allowing for asymmetries in participation decisions and disutility of effort for male and female workers. While at the beginning of the pandemic, female employment increased relative to male, an increase in disutility drove females out of the labor market during the second lockdown. Instead, predominantly males entered, and females reacted to this increase by staying absent. This pattern resembles previous findings on historical pandemics and, in the literature, is called “the added worker effect.”
冠状病毒大流行影响了世界各地的生活和工作条件。有些人可以在家工作,有些人不得不在工作场所冒着生命危险,还有一些人被解雇了。然而,其中一个群体的员工选择在性别上是不对称的。在德国,提供服务的员工中有63%以上是女性;从事保健工作的女性占75%以上,而在包括日托在内的社会职业中,女性雇员的比例为84%。这些职业在大流行期间需求量很大,无法在家从事。由于女性承担了超过62%的家务和育儿工作,对女性工作的高需求造成了一种两难局面。随着托儿设施和学校的关闭,家庭义务增加,女性不得不决定是继续留在劳动力市场还是退出。在本文估计的DSGE模型中,这些选择是通过允许男性和女性工人参与决策的不对称和努力的负效用来解决的。虽然在大流行开始时,女性就业人数相对于男性有所增加,但在第二次封锁期间,负效用的增加迫使女性退出了劳动力市场。取而代之的是,主要是男性进入,而女性对这种增加的反应是缺席。这种模式类似于以前对历史流行病的发现,在文献中被称为“额外的工人效应”。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring global financial interdependencies among ASEAN-5, major developed and developing markets 探索东盟五国、主要发达市场和发展中市场之间的全球金融相互依存关系
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00398
Barkha Dhingra , Mohit Saini , Mahender Yadav , Gaurav Kumar , Pankaj Kumar
The outbreak of the virus in early 2020 led to widespread market volatility and significant declines in stock prices. The importance of the ASEAN-5 markets has emerged as a result of the pandemic. Post-covid-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, these markets have gained attention from investors and researchers. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the extent to which the ASEAN-5 markets are connected to other major markets in order to fully grasp the impact of the pandemic on global stock markets. Hence, this study aims to examine the connectedness among ASEAN-5, the US, the UK, India, and China's stock markets. The data for the period January 2017 to December 2022 were retrieved. DCC-GARCH is employed to fetch the connectedness for sub-periods: pre, during, and post-covid-19. The results in the pre-covid-19 period highlight that Indian markets are least connected with the others; the Philippines is the worst net volatility receiver. During covid-19, China is the net volatility receiver, in the post-covid-19 period; Singapore is the net volatility receiver. The results are robust to the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) analysis. During the crisis, investors should rebalance or reallocate their portfolios due to increased connection and declining benefits of diversification. To prevent the local markets from being affected by other markets, policymakers should take action.
2020年初,新冠肺炎疫情爆发,导致市场普遍波动,股价大幅下跌。由于这次大流行病,东盟五国市场的重要性已经显现出来。在2019冠状病毒病和俄乌战争之后,这些市场受到了投资者和研究人员的关注。因此,必须了解东盟五国市场与其他主要市场的联系程度,以便充分掌握这一大流行病对全球股票市场的影响。因此,本研究旨在检视东盟五国、美国、英国、印度和中国股市之间的连通性。检索了2017年1月至2022年12月期间的数据。DCC-GARCH用于获取子时间段的连通性:covid-19之前、期间和之后。2019冠状病毒病前时期的结果突出表明,印度市场与其他市场的联系最少;菲律宾是净波动率最差的国家。在2019冠状病毒病期间,中国是后疫情时期的净波动接受者;新加坡是净波动接受者。结果对最小生成树(MST)分析具有鲁棒性。在危机期间,投资者应该重新平衡或重新配置他们的投资组合,因为联系增加和多样化收益下降。为了防止本地市场受到其他市场的影响,政策制定者应该采取行动。
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引用次数: 0
Are the effects of monetary policy larger in recessions? A reconciliation of the evidence 在经济衰退中,货币政策的影响是否更大?证据的调和
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00394
Jeremy Piger , Thomas Stockwell
This paper investigates whether there are significant differences in the response of U.S. output to monetary policy shocks in expansions vs. recessions. Much of the existing literature has found that monetary policy shocks have larger effects during recessions. However, recent influential work by Tenreyro and Thwaites (2016) finds the opposite result, and leaves the literature on this important question with a lack of consensus. Using the empirical framework of Tenreryo and Thwaites (2016) as a baseline, we provide a systematic exploration for the key drivers of differing results regarding the effects of monetary policy shocks over the business cycle. We find two key elements drive the results, the first being whether the local projection impulse response function estimator is conducted in levels vs. long differences of the data, and the second being the treatment of outliers observed in measures of monetary policy shocks during the Volcker disinflation. We conclude that the evidence is more supportive of monetary policy shocks having larger effects during recessions.
本文研究了在经济扩张和经济衰退时期,美国产出对货币政策冲击的反应是否存在显著差异。许多现有文献发现,货币政策冲击在经济衰退期间的影响更大。然而,Tenreyro和Thwaites(2016)最近有影响力的工作发现了相反的结果,并使关于这个重要问题的文献缺乏共识。使用Tenreryo和Thwaites(2016)的经验框架作为基线,我们对货币政策冲击对商业周期影响的不同结果的关键驱动因素进行了系统的探索。我们发现驱动结果的两个关键因素,第一个是局部投影脉冲响应函数估计是否是在数据的水平与长差异中进行的,第二个是在沃尔克反通胀期间货币政策冲击测量中观察到的异常值的处理。我们的结论是,证据更支持货币政策冲击在衰退期间产生更大的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the symmetry of trade policy: Evidence from liberalization reversals 评估贸易政策的对称性:来自自由化逆转的证据
Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2024.e00395
Youssef Ait Benasser
Is trade policy symmetric? Using a dataset of trade agreements from 1986 to 2016, we identify 596 instances of trade liberalization reversals where standing agreements are revoked and barriers to trade are reinstated. We study the impact of these reversals on import volumes to understand whether the size of trade flows responses to liberalization and protectionist policies are symmetric. The baseline results do not reject the null hypothesis of perfect policy symmetry: after a liberalization policy is reversed trade flows are on average indistinguishable from flows that did not experience earlier liberalization. Heterogeneity analysis reveals, however, that attributes of reversed policies, such as length and depth, impact their symmetry properties. In a context of increased policy volatility and evolving trade policymaking framework, this study pioneers research about the relative impacts and the persistence of liberalization and protectionism. The findings equip policymakers with critical insights into the durable benefits of liberalization, amidst protectionist pressures, and open new avenues for future research to explore the intricate dynamics of trade policy symmetry.
贸易政策是否对称?使用1986年至2016年的贸易协定数据集,我们确定了596个贸易自由化逆转的实例,其中现有协议被撤销,贸易壁垒被恢复。我们研究了这些逆转对进口量的影响,以了解贸易流量的规模对自由化和保护主义政策的反应是否对称。基线结果并没有拒绝完美政策对称的零假设:在自由化政策逆转后,贸易流量与没有经历早期自由化的流量平均无法区分。然而,异质性分析表明,反向政策的属性,如长度和深度,会影响它们的对称性。在政策波动加剧和贸易政策制定框架不断演变的背景下,本研究率先研究了自由化和保护主义的相对影响和持久性。这些发现为政策制定者提供了在保护主义压力下自由化的持久利益的关键见解,并为未来研究探索贸易政策对称的复杂动态开辟了新的途径。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Asymmetries
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