Heat-pump drying (HPD) is a promising low-temperature technology for stabilizing bioactive-rich leafy materials, yet temperature-dependent links between moisture transport and bioactive deterioration remain unclear. This study examined HPD of Moringa oleifera leaves at 20–50 °C using thin-layer modeling, kinetic analysis of total polyphenols (TPC) and antioxidant activity (DPPH assay), and Arrhenius-based thermokinetic interpretation. Seven thin-layer models were systematically screened to describe moisture ratio (MR), while zero-, first-, second-order and Weibull models were compared to characterize quality losses using nonlinear regression and statistical criteria (R2, χ2, RMSE, AIC, BIC). Moisture transport showed a clear temperature-driven transition in optimal models: Page best described MR at 20–30 °C, Aghbashlo captured the mixed regime at 40 °C, and the Ademiluyi-modified model performed best at 50 °C, where diffusion dominates in a collapsed matrix. For bioactives, TPC degradation followed Weibull kinetics at 20–40 °C but shifted to second-order behavior at 50 °C, indicating interaction-driven pathways. In contrast, DPPH radical scavenging loss remained consistently first-order across 20–50 °C. Arrhenius analysis further differentiated thermal sensitivities of diffusion and degradation processes, supporting mechanistic interpretation and process design. Overall, the results provide a predictive and mechanism-informed basis for selecting HPD conditions that balance drying efficiency with functional-quality retention in M. oleifera leaves.
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