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Evaluation of Environmental Taxation on Multiple Air Pollutants in the Electricity Generation Sector - Evidence from New South Wales, Australia 对发电行业多种空气污染物的环境税评估——来自澳大利亚新南威尔士州的证据
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.2.ZCON
Z. Contreras, T. Ancev, R. Betz
This paper investigates the effects of environmental taxes on the emissions intensity (measured as mass per TWh) of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Sulfur Oxides (SOx), Coarse Particulate Matter (CPM) and Fine Particulate Matter (FPM) from electricity generators in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Electricity generators in NSW are subject to environmental taxation on air pollution through the Load Based Licensing (LBL) scheme. This paper evaluates whether this environmental policy, after ten years of operation, has led to a reduction in the emissions intensity of these air pollutants. The econometric estimation, based on a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) model with fixed effects, shows that except for SOx, there is no evidence of emissions reduction that can be attributed to the LBL in NSW. In terms of enabling low-cost abatement through specific monitoring methods, there is no evidence of reduction in NOx or SOx emission intensities due to generators implementing continuous monitoring. By contrast, generators using periodic monitoring methods have lower emission intensities of CPM and FPM. The findings suggest that environmental taxes in NSW have been too low compared with marginal abatement cost estimates and so, they have not created sufficient incentives for generators to reduce their emission intensities across air pollutants.
本文研究了环境税对澳大利亚新南威尔士州(NSW)发电机的氮氧化物(NOx)、硫氧化物(SOx)、粗颗粒物质(CPM)和细颗粒物质(FPM)排放强度(以每太瓦时质量衡量)的影响。新南威尔士州的发电机通过负荷许可(LBL)计划对空气污染征收环境税。本文评估了这一环境政策在实施十年后,是否导致了这些大气污染物排放强度的降低。基于具有固定效应的看似无关回归(SUR)模型的计量经济学估计表明,除了SOx,没有证据表明NSW的LBL可以减少排放量。在通过特定监测方法实现低成本减排方面,没有证据表明发电机实施连续监测会降低NOx或SOx排放强度。相比之下,采用周期性监测方法的发电机的CPM和FPM排放强度较低。研究结果表明,与边际减排成本估算相比,新南威尔士州的环境税太低了,因此,他们没有为发电机创造足够的激励措施来减少空气污染物的排放强度。
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引用次数: 4
Germany's Nuclear Phase-out: Sensitivities and Impacts on Electricity Prices and CO2 Emissions 德国逐步淘汰核能:对电价和二氧化碳排放的敏感性和影响
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.BKNO
B. Knopf, M. Pahle, H. Kondziella, F. Joas, O. Edenhofer, T. Bruckner
Following the nuclear meltdown in Fukushima Daiichi, in summer 2011 the German parliament decided to phase-out nuclear power by 2022. When this decision was taken, a number of model-based analyses investigated the influence this decision would have on electricity prices and CO2 emissions. They concluded that CO2 emissions would be kept at levels that are in line with national reduction targets but that the phase-out would result in an increase in wholesale electricity prices. We show by means of a sensitivity analysis that results crucially hinge on some fundamental model assumptions. These particularly include the development of fossil fuel and CO2 prices, which have a much larger influence on the electricity price than the nuclear phase-out itself. Since the decision of the nuclear phase-out, CO2 prices have decreased and deployment of renewables increased ever since. This partly counteracts the negative effect of the nuclear phase-out on electricity prices, but on the other hand challenges the mitigation of CO2 emissions and security of supply. This underlines the importance of sensitivity analyses and suggests that policy-makers need to consider scenarios that analyze the whole range of possible future developments.
在福岛第一核电站(Fukushima Daiichi)发生核泄漏后,2011年夏天,德国议会决定在2022年之前逐步淘汰核电。当做出这一决定时,一些基于模型的分析调查了这一决定对电价和二氧化碳排放的影响。他们得出的结论是,二氧化碳排放量将保持在与国家减排目标一致的水平,但逐步淘汰将导致批发电价上涨。我们通过敏感性分析表明,结果关键取决于一些基本的模型假设。其中特别包括化石燃料和二氧化碳价格的发展,它们对电价的影响要比逐步淘汰核能本身大得多。自从决定逐步淘汰核能以来,二氧化碳的价格已经下降,可再生能源的部署也随之增加。这在一定程度上抵消了逐步淘汰核能对电价的负面影响,但另一方面对减少二氧化碳排放和供应安全提出了挑战。这强调了敏感性分析的重要性,并建议决策者需要考虑分析所有可能的未来发展的情景。
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引用次数: 37
New Alignments? The Geopolitics of Gas and Oil Cartels and the Changing Middle East 新联盟吗?天然气和石油卡特尔的地缘政治与变化中的中东
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.SFAN
Songying Fang, A. Jaffe, Ted Loch-Temzelides
The ongoing democratic movements and civil wars in the Middle East have challenged the stability of regimes across the region. On the other hand, the commercial exploitation of large reserves of unconventional oil and gas in the United States is poised to significantly change the current equilibrium in energy markets. What are the implications of these developments on Saudi Arabia's energy policy? Will the long-standing U.S.-Saudi alliance remain the cornerstone of the kingdom's relationship with the outside world? We study these questions using a game-theoretic approach. Specifically, we investigate whether the new political and economic trends may warm the Saudi regime to a workable energy cartel with Russia. We analyze the outcomes from different coalitions that could form among major energy suppliers and show that this is indeed a possibility. We discuss the implications of our results for U.S. policy toward Saudi Arabia.
中东正在进行的民主运动和内战对整个地区政权的稳定构成了挑战。另一方面,美国大量非常规石油和天然气储量的商业开发将显著改变当前能源市场的平衡。这些发展对沙特阿拉伯的能源政策有什么影响?长期以来的美沙同盟关系仍将是沙特与外界关系的基石吗?我们用博弈论的方法来研究这些问题。具体来说,我们调查了新的政治和经济趋势是否会使沙特政权与俄罗斯建立一个可行的能源卡特尔。我们分析了主要能源供应商之间可能形成的不同联盟的结果,并表明这确实是一种可能性。我们讨论了我们的结果对美国对沙特阿拉伯政策的影响。
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引用次数: 9
Demand Side Response: Patterns in Europe and Future Policy Perspectives under Capacity Mechanisms 需求侧响应:欧洲模式和产能机制下的未来政策展望
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.JTOR
J. Torriti, P. Grünewald
Demand Side Response (DSR) has been slow to emerge in European electricity markets. This paper aims to both examine the reasons for low levels of DSR in Europe and reflect on factors that might affect the participation of DSR in capacity mechanisms. It relies on available evidence from the literature, secondary data on existing DSR programmes and energy aggregator's data from industries participating in DSR. Findings show that changes to the duration of contracted loads under existing or new programmes might increase the penetration of DSR. The introduction of capacity mechanisms may increase DSR from demand turn down if longer response times were available.
需求侧响应(DSR)在欧洲电力市场中出现缓慢。本文旨在研究欧洲DSR水平低的原因,并反思可能影响DSR参与能力机制的因素。它依赖于文献中的现有证据、现有DSR计划的二手数据以及参与DSR的行业的能源聚合者的数据。研究结果表明,在现有或新的方案下,改变收缩荷载的持续时间可能会增加DSR的渗透。如果有更长的响应时间,容量机制的引入可能会增加需求下降时的DSR。
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引用次数: 18
Energy subsidies: How large are they and how can they be reformed? 能源补贴:补贴规模有多大?如何改革?
Pub Date : 2014-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.3.1.BCLE
Benedict Clements, D. Coady, S. Fabrizio, S. Gupta, Baoping Shang
Energy subsidies are pervasive. Pretax subsidies, which arise when energy consumers pay less than the supply cost of energy, are high in many developing and emerging economies. Although pretax subsidies are not prevalent in advanced economies, they have large tax subsidies. These arise when energy is taxed below the rate of other consumption goods and are not high enough to capture the negative externalities from energy consumption, including the effects on climate change, local pollution, and traffic congestion. Posttax subsidies (the sum of pretax and tax subsidies) are estimated at about US$2 trillion (2.9 percent of global GDP) in 2011, with advanced economies accounting for a substantial share of the total. Energy subsidies aggravate fiscal imbalances, depress growth, damage the environment, and reinforce inequality. Country experience suggests that well-designed energy subsidy reform strategies can win public support. A far-reaching communications strategy, appropriately phased energy price increases, and targeted mitigating measures to protect the poor are among the most important elements of these strategies.
能源补贴无处不在。在许多发展中国家和新兴经济体,当能源消费者支付的费用低于能源供应成本时,就会出现税前补贴。虽然税前补贴在发达经济体并不普遍,但它们有大量的税收补贴。当能源的税率低于其他消费品的税率,且不足以抵消能源消费的负面外部性,包括对气候变化、当地污染和交通拥堵的影响时,就会出现这种情况。据估计,2011年税后补贴(税前和税后补贴的总和)约为2万亿美元(占全球GDP的2.9%),其中发达经济体占很大份额。能源补贴加剧了财政失衡,抑制了增长,破坏了环境,加剧了不平等。国家经验表明,精心设计的能源补贴改革战略可以赢得公众的支持。这些战略中最重要的内容包括深远的宣传战略、适当分阶段提高能源价格以及有针对性的缓解措施以保护穷人。
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引用次数: 25
EU ETS Phase 3 Benchmarks - Implications and Potential Flaws 欧盟排放交易体系第三阶段基准-影响和潜在缺陷
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.2.2.7
S. Lecourt
In its third Phase (2013-20), the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme allocation methodology is shifting from grandfathering to a combination of auctioning and benchmarking. Free allocation is now be devoted to non-electricity generators only (save exemption), and is linearly decreasing throughout the Phase with a view of no free allocation in 2027. Benchmark-based free allocation is meant to reward lowest CO2-intensive installations as opposed to grandfathering, which allocated allowances based on historical emissions levels. This policy note describes the concrete implications involved by this shift in allocation methodology, and addresses the potential flaws of benchmarking-based allocation, using data from French nstallations’ Phase 3 provisional free allocation.
在第三阶段(2013- 2020年),欧盟排放交易计划的分配方法正在从祖父法转向拍卖和基准法的结合。免费分配现在只用于非发电机组(节省豁免),并在整个阶段线性减少,预计到2027年将没有免费分配。基于基准的免费配额旨在奖励二氧化碳浓度最低的设施,而不是根据历史排放水平分配配额的祖父法。本政策说明描述了分配方法转变所涉及的具体影响,并利用法国装置第三阶段临时免费分配的数据,解决了基于基准分配的潜在缺陷。
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引用次数: 6
Capacity Market Fundamentals 运力市场基本面
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.2.2.2
P. Cramton, Axel Ockenfels, S. Stoft
Electricity capacity markets work in tandem with electricity energy markets to ensure that investors build adequate capacity in line with consumer preferences for reliability. The need for a capacity market stems from several market failures. One particularly notorious problem of electricity markets is low demand flexibility. Most customers are unaware of the real time prices of electricity, have no reason to respond to them, or cannot respond quickly to them, leading to highly price-inelastic demand. This contributes to blackouts in times of scarcity and to the inability of the market to determine the market-clearing prices needed to attract an efficient level and mix of generation capacity. Moreover, the problems caused by this market failure can result in considerable price volatility and market power that would be insignificant if the demand-side of the market were fully functional. Capacity markets are a means to ensure resource adequacy while mitigating other problems caused by the demand side flaws. Our paper describes the basic economics behind the adequacy problem and addresses important challenges and misunderstandings in the process of actually designing capacity markets.
电力容量市场与电力能源市场协同工作,以确保投资者根据消费者对可靠性的偏好建立足够的容量。对容量市场的需求源于几个市场失灵。电力市场的一个特别臭名昭著的问题是低需求灵活性。大多数客户不知道电力的实时价格,没有理由对它们作出反应,或者不能迅速对它们作出反应,导致高度价格无弹性的需求。这导致在电力短缺时期出现停电,并导致市场无法确定吸引有效水平和组合发电能力所需的市场出清价格。此外,这种市场失灵造成的问题可能导致相当大的价格波动和市场力量,如果市场的需求方充分发挥作用,这些问题将是微不足道的。产能市场是一种确保资源充足,同时缓解需求侧缺陷造成的其他问题的手段。本文描述了充足性问题背后的基本经济学,并指出了在实际设计容量市场过程中的重要挑战和误解。
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引用次数: 314
Electricity Scarcity Pricing Through Operating Reserves 利用经营储备进行电力稀缺定价
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.2.2.4
W. Hogan
Suppressed prices in real-time markets provide inadequate incentives for both generation investment and active participation by demand bidding. An operating reserve demand curve developed from first principles would improve reliability, support adequate scarcity pricing, and be straightforward to implement within the framework of economic dispatch. This approach would be fully compatible with other market-oriented policies. Better scarcity pricing would also contribute to long-term resource adequacy.
实时市场中被抑制的价格对发电投资和需求竞价的积极参与都没有提供足够的激励。从第一原则发展的运行储备需求曲线将提高可靠性,支持足够的稀缺定价,并且在经济调度框架内易于实施。这种办法将与其他面向市场的政策完全相容。更好的稀缺性定价也将有助于长期资源充足。
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引用次数: 190
Distributional Effects of Energy Transition: Impacts of Renewable Electricity Support in Germany 能源转型的分配效应:德国可再生电力支持的影响
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.2.1.3
K. Neuhoff, Stefan Bach, Jochen Diekmann, Martin Beznoska, Tarik El-Laboudy
The discussion of the support for renewable energy must consider the distributional impact of cost allocation. The public is sensitive to social imbalances caused by rising power prices that might jeopardize the acceptance of energy transformation. By the end of 2012 about 19 percent of German power is produced with renewables other than hydropower. As a result, German consumers will pay for global learning investment through their electricity bill. We explore the distributional implications for households using household micro data. In 2013 households will allocate 2.5% of consumption expenditure to electricity. The increase to previous years was much debated in fall of 2012, but is not without precedent. In the mid-1980s the share was 2.3%. The effect is more significant for poor households, which allocate 4.5% of expenditure for power. We propose three options how to address this distributional impact: adjusted transfers, reduced electricity taxes, and, most effectively, support to improve energy efficiency.
对可再生能源支持的讨论必须考虑成本分配的分配影响。公众对电价上涨导致的社会失衡非常敏感,这可能会危及人们对能源转型的接受度。到2012年底,德国约19%的电力来自可再生能源,而不是水力发电。因此,德国消费者将通过电费支付全球学习投资。我们使用家庭微观数据来探讨家庭的分布含义。2013年,家庭用电支出将占消费支出的2.5%。在2012年秋季,对前几年的增幅进行了激烈辩论,但并非没有先例。在20世纪80年代中期,这一比例为2.3%。这种影响对贫困家庭更为显著,他们的电费支出占总支出的4.5%。我们提出了三种解决这种分配影响的方案:调整转移支付、降低电力税,以及最有效的支持提高能源效率。
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引用次数: 94
The Impact of Efficient Carbon and Gas Pricing on the Russian Electricity Market 有效的碳和天然气定价对俄罗斯电力市场的影响
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.2.1.5
N. Chernenko
The paper examines the possible interactions of various policy proposals to introduce carbon taxation, adjust the domestic price of gas to export parity and build a major electricity interconnector, and their impact on carbon emissions and the fuel mix of the Russian electricity supply industry. Without raising gas prices, a carbon tax of €25/tonne CO2 reduces emissions by 13% and the output of coal-fired plant by nearly 50%, with the major impact at €6.3-12.5/tonne. Moving gas prices to export parity substantially offsets this effect, and requires higher carbon taxes to reduce emissions by the same amount, as does building the prospective interconnector "Ural-Siberia".
本文研究了引入碳税、调整国内天然气价格以达到出口平价和建立主要电力互联的各种政策建议之间可能的相互作用,以及它们对俄罗斯电力供应行业的碳排放和燃料结构的影响。在不提高天然气价格的情况下,25欧元/吨的碳税可以减少13%的二氧化碳排放量,减少近50%的燃煤电厂的产量,主要影响是6.3-12.5欧元/吨。将天然气价格调整到出口平价,将大大抵消这种影响,并且需要更高的碳税来减少同样数量的排放,就像建设未来的“乌拉尔-西伯利亚”互联互通一样。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy
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