Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.JRIE
J. Riesz, J. Gilmore, I. MacGill
Efficient wholesale electricity markets should drive preference revealing bidding where generators offer the majority of their power at their short run marginal cost (SRMC). However, most renewables have very low SRMCs, which in a competitive market is likely to lead to an increasing proportion of low priced periods. Combined with concerns around the variable availability of some renewable generation types, this has led to suggestions that energy-only markets may need to be augmented with capacity remuneration mechanisms as their renewable penetration grows. This analysis explores the operation of energy-only markets with high renewables, with a case study of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Results suggest that existing energy-only market mechanisms have the potential to operate effectively in a 100% renewables scenario, but success will rely upon two critical factors. Firstly, an increase in the Market Price Cap is likely to be required. Preliminary analysis suggests this may need to increase from the present $13,500/ MWh in the NEM to the range $60,000 to $80,000 /MWh. Alternatively, comprehensive demand side participation could allow each customer to select their preferred level of reliability and associated cost, removing the need for an administratively determined Market Price Cap. Secondly, a liquid and well-functioning derivative contracts market will be required to allow generators and retailers to hedge increased market risks successfully.
{"title":"Assessing the viability of Energy-Only Markets with 100% Renewables","authors":"J. Riesz, J. Gilmore, I. MacGill","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.JRIE","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.JRIE","url":null,"abstract":"Efficient wholesale electricity markets should drive preference revealing bidding where generators offer the majority of their power at their short run marginal cost (SRMC). However, most renewables have very low SRMCs, which in a competitive market is likely to lead to an increasing proportion of low priced periods. Combined with concerns around the variable availability of some renewable generation types, this has led to suggestions that energy-only markets may need to be augmented with capacity remuneration mechanisms as their renewable penetration grows. This analysis explores the operation of energy-only markets with high renewables, with a case study of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Results suggest that existing energy-only market mechanisms have the potential to operate effectively in a 100% renewables scenario, but success will rely upon two critical factors. Firstly, an increase in the Market Price Cap is likely to be required. Preliminary analysis suggests this may need to increase from the present $13,500/ MWh in the NEM to the range $60,000 to $80,000 /MWh. Alternatively, comprehensive demand side participation could allow each customer to select their preferred level of reliability and associated cost, removing the need for an administratively determined Market Price Cap. Secondly, a liquid and well-functioning derivative contracts market will be required to allow generators and retailers to hedge increased market risks successfully.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"173 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126633652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.ITAK
T. Ida, Kayo Murakami, Makoto Tanaka
We report on a randomized controlled trial used to examine the effect of dynamic pricing when applied to households with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) power-generation systems. Using high-frequency data on household-level electricity use, PV generation, purchases, and sales, we find that critical peak pricing induced significant usage reductions of 3-4% among households with PV systems, a quarter of the effect size seen among average households without solar PV systems. In addition, we investigate the influence of the amount of PV power generated on treatment effects and the potential heterogeneity caused by participating households’ attributes. This is the first large-scale field experiment evaluating the demand response of households with PV generation capabilities.
{"title":"Electricity demand response in Japan:Experimental evidence from a residential photovoltaic power-generation system","authors":"T. Ida, Kayo Murakami, Makoto Tanaka","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.ITAK","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.ITAK","url":null,"abstract":"We report on a randomized controlled trial used to examine the effect of dynamic pricing when applied to households with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) power-generation systems. Using high-frequency data on household-level electricity use, PV generation, purchases, and sales, we find that critical peak pricing induced significant usage reductions of 3-4% among households with PV systems, a quarter of the effect size seen among average households without solar PV systems. In addition, we investigate the influence of the amount of PV power generated on treatment effects and the potential heterogeneity caused by participating households’ attributes. This is the first large-scale field experiment evaluating the demand response of households with PV generation capabilities.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"140 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116498524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.OKIM
O. Nishio
Japan has experienced a severe electricity shortfall since the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 and the subsequent shutdown of nuclear power plants. Disruption to the supply-demand balance was especially severe in Tokyo and Tohoku in summer 2011, forcing the government to introduce mandatory rationing for large customers. Following intensive efforts, a reduction in demand of more than 15% compared with the 2010 level was achieved in these two regions. Surprisingly, most of the savings achieved in 2011 have persisted for almost four years. This paper examines the Japanese experience of saving electricity, based primarily on a detailed review of surveys of households and commercial and industrial customers we conducted each fall from 2011 to 2014. The paper analyzes major electricity-saving measures, energy users' perceptions and motivations, and trends from 2011 to 2014. The results show that the implementation rates of various electricity-saving measures are declining from the 2011 or 2012 levels, while the actual reduction in demand has remained at almost the same level. This seemingly paradoxical finding can be explained by the cumulative effect of replacing old equipment with newer, more efficient models and adopting new technology such as LED lighting.
{"title":"Responding to electricity shortfalls: Electricity-saving activities of households and firms in Japan after Fukushima","authors":"O. Nishio","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.OKIM","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.OKIM","url":null,"abstract":"Japan has experienced a severe electricity shortfall since the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011 and the subsequent shutdown of nuclear power plants. Disruption to the supply-demand balance was especially severe in Tokyo and Tohoku in summer 2011, forcing the government to introduce mandatory rationing for large customers. Following intensive efforts, a reduction in demand of more than 15% compared with the 2010 level was achieved in these two regions. Surprisingly, most of the savings achieved in 2011 have persisted for almost four years. This paper examines the Japanese experience of saving electricity, based primarily on a detailed review of surveys of households and commercial and industrial customers we conducted each fall from 2011 to 2014. The paper analyzes major electricity-saving measures, energy users' perceptions and motivations, and trends from 2011 to 2014. The results show that the implementation rates of various electricity-saving measures are declining from the 2011 or 2012 levels, while the actual reduction in demand has remained at almost the same level. This seemingly paradoxical finding can be explained by the cumulative effect of replacing old equipment with newer, more efficient models and adopting new technology such as LED lighting.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122655891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.MPAH
M. Pahle, H. Schweizerhof
After more than a decade of supporting renewable energies (RE) through feed-in tariffs, Germany has set out to integrate RE into the power market. This requires RE investors to carry market risks, in particular the power price risk. But under the current financial structure higher risks would negatively impact the bankability of new projects, which could endanger the achievement of Germany's RE targets. The need to maintain a non-disruptive investment environment suggests a gradual risk transfer towards market integration in the spirit of what Ball (2012) calls "giving RE tough love". In this paper we will spell out how this could be done: in the first step we discuss the general case for market risks and find that past policy reforms have only marginally imposed risks on RE. Hence more ambitious steps are needed, for which we outline two elements in the second step: (a) a support framework that creates incentives for RE projects to increasingly take risks based on a "cascading risk auction", and (b) design options for power purchase agreements (PPAs) aimed to incentivize new products for risk management. This approach can inform the upcoming 2017 reform in Germany - and also other countries pursuing similar reforms.
{"title":"Time for Tough Love: Towards Gradual Risk Transfer to Renewables in Germany","authors":"M. Pahle, H. Schweizerhof","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.MPAH","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.MPAH","url":null,"abstract":"After more than a decade of supporting renewable energies (RE) through feed-in tariffs, Germany has set out to integrate RE into the power market. This requires RE investors to carry market risks, in particular the power price risk. But under the current financial structure higher risks would negatively impact the bankability of new projects, which could endanger the achievement of Germany's RE targets. The need to maintain a non-disruptive investment environment suggests a gradual risk transfer towards market integration in the spirit of what Ball (2012) calls \"giving RE tough love\". In this paper we will spell out how this could be done: in the first step we discuss the general case for market risks and find that past policy reforms have only marginally imposed risks on RE. Hence more ambitious steps are needed, for which we outline two elements in the second step: (a) a support framework that creates incentives for RE projects to increasingly take risks based on a \"cascading risk auction\", and (b) design options for power purchase agreements (PPAs) aimed to incentivize new products for risk management. This approach can inform the upcoming 2017 reform in Germany - and also other countries pursuing similar reforms.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"79 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130811974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.NPAY
Naveed Paydara, O. Schenk, Ashley Bowers, Sanya Carley, J. Rupp, J. Graham
A survey with an embedded experimental design is employed to determine whether local public support for an unconventional gas development (UGD) project is influenced by a policy that commits a portion of private revenues from UGD to the state or local government. The public opinion survey (N = 2,700) oversamples residents living in counties of six states where UGD is technically feasible or underway: New York, Illinois, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas. We found that proposing a hypothetical UGD site about two miles from where the resident lives decreases support for local UGD, but this effect is attenuated when residents are informed that their community or state will receive benefits from "reinvestment" of a portion of the revenues generated by a developer. Further, the level of government receiving the reinvestment funds influences the level of local public support for UGD, such that reinvestment in local government is a much stronger predictor of public support than reinvestment in state government. Our findings have implications for understanding the social feasibility of UGD and can have implications for how reinvestment policies should be designed to influence local community attitudes.
{"title":"The Effect of Community Reinvestment Funds on Local Acceptance of Unconventional Gas Development","authors":"Naveed Paydara, O. Schenk, Ashley Bowers, Sanya Carley, J. Rupp, J. Graham","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.NPAY","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.NPAY","url":null,"abstract":"A survey with an embedded experimental design is employed to determine whether local public support for an unconventional gas development (UGD) project is influenced by a policy that commits a portion of private revenues from UGD to the state or local government. The public opinion survey (N = 2,700) oversamples residents living in counties of six states where UGD is technically feasible or underway: New York, Illinois, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas. We found that proposing a hypothetical UGD site about two miles from where the resident lives decreases support for local UGD, but this effect is attenuated when residents are informed that their community or state will receive benefits from \"reinvestment\" of a portion of the revenues generated by a developer. Further, the level of government receiving the reinvestment funds influences the level of local public support for UGD, such that reinvestment in local government is a much stronger predictor of public support than reinvestment in state government. Our findings have implications for understanding the social feasibility of UGD and can have implications for how reinvestment policies should be designed to influence local community attitudes.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"208 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"113991119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.SHOU
S�bastien Houde, C. Spurlock
We revisit Hausman and Joskow (1982)'s economic rationales for appliance minimum energy efficiency standards. In addition to the four market failures they argued could justify appliance standards - energy prices below marginal social cost, consumers underestimating energy prices, consumer discount rates above social discount rates, and principal-agent problems - we discuss two additional market failures that are relevant and potentially economically important in this context: market power and innovation market failures. We highlight puzzles uncovered by recent empirical results, and suggest directions future research should take to better understand the normative implications of appliance standards.
{"title":"Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards for Appliances: Old and New Economic Rationales","authors":"S�bastien Houde, C. Spurlock","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.SHOU","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.SHOU","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit Hausman and Joskow (1982)'s economic rationales for appliance minimum energy efficiency standards. In addition to the four market failures they argued could justify appliance standards - energy prices below marginal social cost, consumers underestimating energy prices, consumer discount rates above social discount rates, and principal-agent problems - we discuss two additional market failures that are relevant and potentially economically important in this context: market power and innovation market failures. We highlight puzzles uncovered by recent empirical results, and suggest directions future research should take to better understand the normative implications of appliance standards.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124757719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.JROS
Jan Rosenow, C. Leguijt, Z. Pató, N. Eyre, Tina Fawcet
The European Union's Energy Efficiency Directive calls for EU Member States to put in place ambitious energy efficiency policies and requires them to establish energy saving targets. One of the most important Articles of the Directive is Article 7, which required Member States to implement Energy Efficiency Obligations and/or alternative policy instruments in order to reach a reduction in final energy use of 1.5% per year. This paper assesses how Article 7 has been applied by Member States and what the implications are. Analysing the plans of all 28 Member States we evaluate how Article 7 is implemented across the EU. This includes an analysis of the types of policies used, the distribution of the anticipated savings across the different policy instruments, and whether or not the way Article 7 is applied in reality meets the requirements set by the Directive. Our analysis shows that Member States take very different approaches with some using up to 112 policy measures and others just one. We also identify areas of concern particularly related to the delivery of the energy savings with respect to the Article 7 requirements, the calculation methods, and the monitoring and verification regimes adopted by Member States. We model to what extent the projected savings are likely to materialise and whether or not they will be sufficient to meet the target put forward by Article 7. In our paper we also make suggestions for modifying the Energy Efficiency Directive in order to address some of the problems we encountered.
{"title":"An ex-ante evaluation of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive - Article 7","authors":"Jan Rosenow, C. Leguijt, Z. Pató, N. Eyre, Tina Fawcet","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.JROS","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.JROS","url":null,"abstract":"The European Union's Energy Efficiency Directive calls for EU Member States to put in place ambitious energy efficiency policies and requires them to establish energy saving targets. One of the most important Articles of the Directive is Article 7, which required Member States to implement Energy Efficiency Obligations and/or alternative policy instruments in order to reach a reduction in final energy use of 1.5% per year. This paper assesses how Article 7 has been applied by Member States and what the implications are. Analysing the plans of all 28 Member States we evaluate how Article 7 is implemented across the EU. This includes an analysis of the types of policies used, the distribution of the anticipated savings across the different policy instruments, and whether or not the way Article 7 is applied in reality meets the requirements set by the Directive. Our analysis shows that Member States take very different approaches with some using up to 112 policy measures and others just one. We also identify areas of concern particularly related to the delivery of the energy savings with respect to the Article 7 requirements, the calculation methods, and the monitoring and verification regimes adopted by Member States. We model to what extent the projected savings are likely to materialise and whether or not they will be sufficient to meet the target put forward by Article 7. In our paper we also make suggestions for modifying the Energy Efficiency Directive in order to address some of the problems we encountered.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"120 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133974497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.RHAH
R. Metcalfe
One of the most exciting areas of research today is the use of experiments informed by behavioral science to understand how to change energy consumption decisions of consumers. This article provides a survey and synthesis of experiments and focuses on general principles that can be gleaned from these experiments to date. We identify four general insights from the literature. First, the "law of demand" is typically satisfied in experimental settings, but responsiveness to energy price changes can vary dramatically in different contexts. Second, information provision can help promote reductions in energy use, but it does not always work. Third, the use of social norms can change energy use. Finally, the economic welfare impacts of behavioral interventions aimed at promoting either energy conservation or energy efficiency are not well understood, but initial research suggests that some people want nudges and some do not. The essay also identifies a number of areas for future research.
{"title":"The Impact of Behavioral Science Experiments on Energy Policy","authors":"R. Metcalfe","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.RHAH","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.2.RHAH","url":null,"abstract":"One of the most exciting areas of research today is the use of experiments informed by behavioral science to understand how to change energy consumption decisions of consumers. This article provides a survey and synthesis of experiments and focuses on general principles that can be gleaned from these experiments to date. We identify four general insights from the literature. First, the \"law of demand\" is typically satisfied in experimental settings, but responsiveness to energy price changes can vary dramatically in different contexts. Second, information provision can help promote reductions in energy use, but it does not always work. Third, the use of social norms can change energy use. Finally, the economic welfare impacts of behavioral interventions aimed at promoting either energy conservation or energy efficiency are not well understood, but initial research suggests that some people want nudges and some do not. The essay also identifies a number of areas for future research.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"2017 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132929299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.MGOT
M. Sueyoshi
This study reviews the status, progress, and policy issues related to the reform of the Japanese electricity market undertaken in response to the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March of 2011. The reform has three stages: (1) establishment of a neutral organization of network operation, (2) extension of retail competition to household consumers, and (3) legal unbundling of the transmission-distribution network sector. Currently, the first stage is underway and the Japanese government is preparing to implement the second stage for a fully liberalized retail market. This study employs government and company data to demonstrate the current and projected influences of the stages on numerous aspects of the reform. The results prove that resistance to nuclear power and promotion of renewable energy generation is expected to have a significant impact on consumer benefits, whereas new business alliances are expected to create new competitive energy markets. Periodic assessments of the status and progress of the stages of the reform are vital to achieving an efficient electricity market that benefits providers and consumers.
{"title":"Electricity market reform in Japan after Fukushima","authors":"M. Sueyoshi","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.MGOT","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.MGOT","url":null,"abstract":"This study reviews the status, progress, and policy issues related to the reform of the Japanese electricity market undertaken in response to the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in March of 2011. The reform has three stages: (1) establishment of a neutral organization of network operation, (2) extension of retail competition to household consumers, and (3) legal unbundling of the transmission-distribution network sector. Currently, the first stage is underway and the Japanese government is preparing to implement the second stage for a fully liberalized retail market. This study employs government and company data to demonstrate the current and projected influences of the stages on numerous aspects of the reform. The results prove that resistance to nuclear power and promotion of renewable energy generation is expected to have a significant impact on consumer benefits, whereas new business alliances are expected to create new competitive energy markets. Periodic assessments of the status and progress of the stages of the reform are vital to achieving an efficient electricity market that benefits providers and consumers.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134086930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.TSUZ
Tatsujiro Suzuki, Tatsuo C. Kobayashi, Hikaru Kobayashi, Kazumasa Iwata
Since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, Japan has been struggling with its energy and environmental policy, without a clear picture of the future for nuclear power. The Government of Japan released its latest Strategic Energy Plan in April 2014, and announced its CO2 emissions target (24% reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 levels) and "energy mix" (the desirable composition of power sources) in June 2015. The objective of this paper is to assess Japan's energy mix and potential for CO2 reduction in the years to 2050, independently from such government policies, by analyzing changes in the energy demand and supply structure since the Fukushima accident. We find that Japan's energy structure could change dramatically in the next thirty to fifty years. On the demand side, with the combination of population decline and economic structural change, and assuming a constant fossil energy price increase through steady global demand, we estimate a 40% reduction in energy demand by 2050 relative to 2005. On the supply side, we believe zero-emission electricity is achievable from 2040 onward, assuming a significant increase in renewable energy share, the continued use of nuclear power and the introduction of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) from 2025. However, the total costs of carbon reduction do not differ substantially with or without nuclear power, and the contribution from CCS can be more significant than that from nuclear power. We found that a 30% CO2 reduction by 2030, and a 60% reduction by 2050 is achievable. To attain further reductions by 2050, assessment of emissions regulations and carbon pricing cannot be avoided. Our projections are based not only on the economic model, but also on interviews with leading experts from public/ private/academic institutions, and thus should not be considered as "unrealistic" but rather as the "best case scenario," applying the most advanced technologies and practices.
{"title":"Aiming at a Low Carbon Society in Japan by 2050: Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident and CO2 Reduction Target","authors":"Tatsujiro Suzuki, Tatsuo C. Kobayashi, Hikaru Kobayashi, Kazumasa Iwata","doi":"10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.TSUZ","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.5.1.TSUZ","url":null,"abstract":"Since the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, Japan has been struggling with its energy and environmental policy, without a clear picture of the future for nuclear power. The Government of Japan released its latest Strategic Energy Plan in April 2014, and announced its CO2 emissions target (24% reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 levels) and \"energy mix\" (the desirable composition of power sources) in June 2015. The objective of this paper is to assess Japan's energy mix and potential for CO2 reduction in the years to 2050, independently from such government policies, by analyzing changes in the energy demand and supply structure since the Fukushima accident. We find that Japan's energy structure could change dramatically in the next thirty to fifty years. On the demand side, with the combination of population decline and economic structural change, and assuming a constant fossil energy price increase through steady global demand, we estimate a 40% reduction in energy demand by 2050 relative to 2005. On the supply side, we believe zero-emission electricity is achievable from 2040 onward, assuming a significant increase in renewable energy share, the continued use of nuclear power and the introduction of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) from 2025. However, the total costs of carbon reduction do not differ substantially with or without nuclear power, and the contribution from CCS can be more significant than that from nuclear power. We found that a 30% CO2 reduction by 2030, and a 60% reduction by 2050 is achievable. To attain further reductions by 2050, assessment of emissions regulations and carbon pricing cannot be avoided. Our projections are based not only on the economic model, but also on interviews with leading experts from public/ private/academic institutions, and thus should not be considered as \"unrealistic\" but rather as the \"best case scenario,\" applying the most advanced technologies and practices.","PeriodicalId":385400,"journal":{"name":"Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124069502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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