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Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century 展望21世纪的能源和气候
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.spal
S. Paltsev
The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. Energy and climate scenarios have an important role to play in assessing the energy system transition required to mitigate climate challenges. Energy and industrial companies, governments, civil society and other stakeholders need to align their strategies with the science-based targets while continuing economic growth and development including providing reliable and affordable energy. Numerous expert groups and individual researchers produce energy scenarios and analyze their implications for climate.
越来越多的证据表明,气候变化对人类生活和全球经济产生了严重影响,因此越来越需要对低碳途径进行评估。能源和气候情景在评估缓解气候挑战所需的能源系统转型方面可发挥重要作用。能源和工业公司、政府、民间社会和其他利益攸关方需要将其战略与基于科学的目标保持一致,同时继续经济增长和发展,包括提供可靠和负担得起的能源。许多专家小组和个人研究人员提出了能源情景,并分析了它们对气候的影响。
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引用次数: 7
Levelized Cost of Consumed Electricity 用电平准化成本
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.tdur
Tunç Durmaz, A. Pommeret
Current calculations to evaluate the profitability of the various energy generating units ignore intermittency as well as complementary technologies, such as battery storage and smart meters. Therefore, we propose a new assessment of the cost of solar energy that takes into account smart grids. In doing this, we use data from a low energy dwelling in South Wales UK as well as data from a high-rise apartment in Hong Kong, calibrate our model in this regard, and calculate a levelized cost of electricity consumption (LCOCE). Our proposed cost measure can be of use when determining the feasibility of smart systems, and accordingly, assist policymakers when deciding on the financial support for home renewable energy systems.
目前评估各种发电机组盈利能力的计算忽略了间歇性和互补技术,如电池存储和智能电表。因此,我们提出了一种考虑智能电网的太阳能成本新评估方法。在此过程中,我们使用了英国南威尔士一个低能耗住宅的数据以及香港一个高层公寓的数据,在这方面校准了我们的模型,并计算了平准化电力消耗成本(LCOCE)。我们提出的成本测量方法可以在确定智能系统的可行性时使用,并相应地帮助决策者决定对家庭可再生能源系统的财政支持。
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引用次数: 6
OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability 欧佩克追求市场稳定
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.2.apie
Axel Pierru, James L. Smith, H. Almutairi
Maintaining stability in the world oil market is a prominent component of OPEC’s self-stated mission. OPEC’s modus operandi is to tap spare production capacity to offset shocks to demand and supply. The attempt to stabilize the world oil market is not a small or easy task, disruptions to demand and supply are both large and frequent. Indeed, it is entirely possible that, despite best efforts, the attempt might fail. We therefore examine the extent to which OPEC has succeeded in this mission. We assess how effective has been OPEC’s management of its spare capacity to reduce the volatility of the price of oil. We also estimate the value of OPEC’s spare capacity buffer to the global economy and investigate how the benefits of OPEC’s effort to reduce price volatility have been distributed geographically.
维持世界石油市场的稳定是欧佩克自诩使命的重要组成部分。欧佩克的做法是利用闲置产能来抵消需求和供应的冲击。试图稳定世界石油市场不是一件小事或容易的任务,需求和供应的中断既大又频繁。事实上,尽管尽了最大努力,这种尝试完全有可能失败。因此,我们审视欧佩克在这一使命中取得成功的程度。我们评估了欧佩克在减少石油价格波动方面对其闲置产能的管理效果。我们还估计了欧佩克的闲置产能缓冲对全球经济的价值,并调查了欧佩克减少价格波动的努力所带来的好处是如何在地理上分布的。
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引用次数: 6
The Synergies Between EU Climate and Renewable Energy Policies-Evidence from Portugal Using Integrated Modelling 欧盟气候与可再生能源政策之间的协同效应——来自葡萄牙的综合模型证据
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.spro
Sara Proença, P. Fortes
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引用次数: 1
Resource Adequacy with Increasing Shares of Wind and Solar Power: A Comparison of European and U.S. Electricity Market Designs 增加风能和太阳能份额的资源充足性:欧洲和美国电力市场设计的比较
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.abot
A. Botterud, H. Auer
We raise the question if improvements to current energy-only markets are sufficient to maintain resource adequacy in electricity markets or whether the rapid increase in wind and solar power gives stronger arguments for additional capacity mechanisms. A comparative analysis between Europe and the United States reveals some fundamental differences, but also many similarities in electricity market design on the two continents. We provide a list of general and specific recommendations for improved electricity markets and argue that lessons can and should be learned in both directions. The key to achieve a market-compatible integration of renewable energy is to focus on correct price formation in the shortterm. Increased demand-side participation, improved pricing during scarcity conditions, and a transition from technology-specific subsidies of renewables towards adequate pricing of carbon emissions are important measures towards this end. In contrast, an increasing reliance on administrative capacity mechanisms would bring the industry back towards the centralized integrated resource planning that prevailed at the outset of electricity restructuring more than 25 years ago.
我们提出的问题是,当前能源市场的改善是否足以维持电力市场的资源充足性,或者风能和太阳能的快速增长是否为额外的产能机制提供了更有力的论据。通过对欧洲和美国电力市场设计的比较分析,可以发现两大洲在电力市场设计上既有一些根本性的差异,也有许多相似之处。我们为改善电力市场提供了一系列一般和具体的建议,并认为可以而且应该在两个方向上吸取经验教训。实现与市场兼容的可再生能源整合的关键是关注短期内正确的价格形成。增加需求方参与,改善稀缺条件下的定价,以及从对可再生能源的技术补贴转向对碳排放进行适当定价,都是实现这一目标的重要措施。相比之下,日益依赖行政能力机制将使该行业重新回到25年前电力结构调整开始时普遍采用的集中综合资源规划。
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引用次数: 17
The gravity of status quo: A review of IEA’s World Energy Outlook 现状的严重性:国际能源署《世界能源展望》回顾
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.8.2.kmoh
K. Mohn
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引用次数: 30
Geopolitics and the Oil Price Cycle - An Introduction 地缘政治与油价周期——导论
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.2.ajaf
A. Jaffe
Oil prices experienced record volatility in the spring of 2020 amid two separate, but simultaneous shocks—the largest singular, sudden drop in oil demand in history amid lockdowns across the world to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and a brief oil price war among the world’s largest oil producers The gyration was the latest in a series of oil price shocks, both upwards and downwards, experienced in recent years This EEEP symposium on Geopolitics and the Oil Price Cycle brings together leading scholars from three respected academic energy centers, including researchers from Texas and the Middle East, to address different aspects of the question in light of key strategic geopolitical changes since 2000 The symposium considers three papers on important aspects to geopolitics and oil prices: the end to the U S ban on crude oil exports;the Arab Spring and geopolitical risk, and OPEC’s policies regarding its spare production capacity Copyright © 2020 by the IAEE All rights reserved
2020年春季,在两次独立但同时发生的冲击中,油价经历了创纪录的波动——一次是全球为减缓COVID-19大流行而采取的封锁措施,另一次是世界上最大的石油生产国之间的短暂油价战,这是一系列油价上行和下行冲击中的最新一次。这次关于地缘政治和油价周期的EEEP研讨会汇集了来自三个受人尊敬的学术能源中心的主要学者,包括来自德克萨斯州和中东的研究人员,以解决自2000年以来关键战略地缘政治变化的不同方面的问题。研讨会考虑了地缘政治和油价重要方面的三篇论文:美国原油出口禁令的结束,阿拉伯之春和地缘政治风险,以及欧佩克关于其闲置产能的政策版权所有©2020由IAEE保留
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引用次数: 3
Polar Vortexes in New England: Missing Money, Missing Markets, or Missing Regulation? 新英格兰的极地漩涡:货币缺失,市场缺失,还是监管缺失?
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.8.2.jmak
J. Makholm, Laura T. W. Olive
The United States has more than 20 years of experience in dealing with a continent-wide, highly competitive gas market and several competitive power markets in various states. Despite such a reasonably lengthy history of energy market competition, these two competitive energy markets sometimes visibly fail to intersect successfully with one another. The periodic experience in New England with its “polar vortex” weather events (when high-pressure in the Pacific displaces a pocket of very cold air that typically circulates around the North Pole, bringing Arctic temperatures to North America) is a case in point. During the last two polar vortex events (in 2014 and 2018), power prices exhibited sustained price spikes seemingly indicative of a lack of useful and efficient infrastructure.
美国在应对横跨整个大陆、竞争激烈的天然气市场和各州竞争激烈的电力市场方面有20多年的经验。尽管能源市场竞争的历史相当悠久,但这两个相互竞争的能源市场有时明显无法成功地相互交叉。新英格兰周期性经历的“极地涡旋”天气事件(太平洋的高压取代了通常在北极周围循环的非常冷的空气,将北极温度带到北美)就是一个很好的例子。在最近两次极地涡旋事件(2014年和2018年)期间,电价持续飙升,似乎表明缺乏有用和高效的基础设施。
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引用次数: 3
How Incumbent Cultural and Cognitive Path Dependencies Constrain the ‘Scenario Cone’: Reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal due to Techno-bias 现有的文化和认知路径依赖如何约束“情景锥”:由于技术偏见而依赖二氧化碳去除
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.ibra
Isabell Braunger, Christian Hauenstein
The necessity to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to zero within the next decades to mitigate anthropogenic climate change is generally acknowledged. Yet, how to achieve this reduction remains an open debate. In this context, the use of scenarios has become common practice in order to study long-term developments necessary to reach climate targets. The scenario results enable an informed debate about climate change policy (e.g., costs, impacts, prerequisites). However, there are legitimate methodological and substantive criticisms and uncertainties with regard to scenarios.
人们普遍认为,有必要在未来几十年内将温室气体(GHG)排放减少到零,以缓解人为造成的气候变化。然而,如何实现这一减排目标仍是一个悬而未决的问题。在这种情况下,为了研究实现气候目标所必需的长期发展,使用情景已成为一种普遍做法。情景结果使人们能够就气候变化政策(如成本、影响、先决条件)进行知情辩论。然而,在各种设想方面存在着合理的方法和实质性批评和不确定因素。
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引用次数: 4
Measuring Energy Efficiency: Accounting for the Hidden Costs of Product Failure 测量能源效率:计算产品失效的隐性成本
Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.5547/2160-5890.9.2.afra
A. Fraas, S. E. Miller
DOE sets energy efficiency standards for a wide variety of consumer appliances to achieve a “significant conservation of energy.” Advocates for these standards claim that households have realized substantial cost savings with the existing standards. There is a substantial literature—although no consensus—on the effects of energy efficiency regulation, however. While an increasing emphasis has been placed on the potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, the relative benefits of these emissions reductions are generally small. Instead, the basis for energy efficiency regulation rests on the claim of an “energy paradox”—that the private benefits of energy efficiency measures substantially exceed the marginal costs, and that households and firms fail to adopt them because of market or behavioral imperfections. As further support for an energy paradox effect, ex ante engineering analyses by regulatory agencies typically estimate substantial net private benefits for energy efficiency rules. In the case of the 2001 energy efficiency standards for clothes washers and the 1997 standards for refrigerators, DOE estimated between $16.97 billion and $26.5 billion in cumulative net benefits through 2030. However, both rules resulted in unanticipated burdens for consumers in the form of diminished product reliability, increased repair costs, and decreased product lifetime. To date, existing retrospective analyses have considered consumers’ energy savings without considering these substantial added burdens, which captures only half of the picture.
美国能源部为各种各样的消费电器制定能源效率标准,以实现“显著的能源节约”。这些标准的倡导者声称,家庭已经实现了大量的成本节约与现有的标准。然而,关于能源效率监管的影响,有大量的文献——尽管没有达成共识。虽然人们越来越强调减少温室气体排放的潜力,但这些减排的相对效益通常很小。相反,能源效率监管的基础是建立在“能源悖论”的主张之上的,即能源效率措施的个人收益大大超过了边际成本,而家庭和企业由于市场或行为的不完善而未能采用这些措施。作为对能源悖论效应的进一步支持,监管机构的事前工程分析通常会估计能源效率规则的大量净私人利益。以2001年的洗衣机能效标准和1997年的冰箱能效标准为例,美国能源部估计,到2030年,累计净效益将在169.7亿美元至265亿美元之间。然而,这两项规定都给消费者带来了意想不到的负担,其形式是产品可靠性降低、维修成本增加和产品寿命缩短。到目前为止,现有的回顾性分析只考虑了消费者的能源节约,而没有考虑到这些大量增加的负担,这只反映了一半的情况。
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Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy
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