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An assessment of the effects of unconventional monetary policies on the cost of credit to non-financial companies in the eurozone 评估非常规货币政策对欧元区非金融企业信贷成本的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-10-11 DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2017.494t.1920
Désiré Kanga, Grégory Levieuge
[eng] The aim of this paper is to assess the effects of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) on the cost of credit to non-financial companies in the eurozone. We analyse the direct effects of these UMPs using a multiple linear regression, then we seek to highlight the existence of a complementarity between these policies and the interest rate policy - an indirect effect of UMPs - using an interaction term. We show that the direct effects of UMPs are limited, indeed nil depending on the country, and are always weaker than their indirect effects. After having highlighted the heterogeneity of the indirect effects of UMPs in the eurozone, we offer diverse interpretations – macroeconomic, financial or banking differences, depending on the country – using a Panel Conditionally Homogenous VAR model (PCHVAR). The indirect effects of UMPs, depending on the economies considered, were countered by large public debt, a banking sector in poor health and/or a high level of systemic risk or risk of default.
本文旨在评估非常规货币政策(UMPs)对欧元区非金融企业信贷成本的影响。我们使用多元线性回归分析这些ump的直接影响,然后我们试图使用交互项强调这些政策和利率政策之间存在互补性- ump的间接影响。我们表明,UMPs的直接影响是有限的,根据国家的不同,实际上是零,并且总是弱于它们的间接影响。在强调了欧元区非常规货币政策间接影响的异质性之后,我们使用面板条件同质VAR模型(PCHVAR)提供了不同的解释——宏观经济、金融或银行业的差异,具体取决于国家。非常规货币政策的间接影响(视所考虑的经济体而定)被巨额公共债务、健康状况不佳的银行业和(或)高水平的系统性风险或违约风险所抵消。
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引用次数: 2
The effect of R D subsidies and tax incentives on employment : an evaluation for small firms in France 研发补贴和税收优惠对就业的影响:对法国小企业的评价
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1909
V. Dortet-Bernadet, M. Sicsic
[eng] Between 2003 and 2010, the amount of tax incentives and subsidies granted by French public authorities to finance the R&D activities of SMEs increased fourfold. This very sharp increase is due to the research tax credit (RTC) reforms, particularly in 2008, the creation in 2004 of a young innovative business status and an increase in subsidies over the period. Based on exhaustive employment data for France, this paper presents the first ever evaluation of the effect of the increase in these aids on small firms. Using a method that combines matching and a labour demand model, we show that the effect of public support on R&D employment is positive and increased during the period 2004-2010. Nonetheless, the increase in aid, particularly subsequent to the wide ranging reform of the RTC in 2008, was accompanied by a significant crowding-out effect: according to our estimates, only between 18 and 34% of the supplementary aid obtained by businesses between 2008 and 2010 was used to finance new jobs for highly qualified workers.
2003年至2010年间,法国政府为中小企业的研发活动提供的税收优惠和补贴增加了四倍。这一急剧增长是由于研究税收抵免(RTC)改革,特别是在2008年,2004年创建了一个年轻的创新企业地位,并在此期间增加了补贴。基于法国详尽的就业数据,本文首次对这些援助对小企业的影响进行了评估。采用匹配与劳动力需求模型相结合的方法,我们发现公共支持对R&D就业的影响是正向的,并且在2004-2010年期间呈上升趋势。尽管如此,援助的增加,特别是在2008年RTC大范围改革之后,伴随着显著的挤出效应:根据我们的估计,2008年至2010年期间,企业获得的补充援助中只有18%至34%用于为高素质工人提供新的就业机会。
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引用次数: 14
How long do situations of single parenthood last? An estimation based on French data 单亲家庭的状况会持续多久?基于法国数据的估计
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1914
V. Costemalle
[eng] Single-parent families currently account for over 20% of families with minor children in France, in line with the European average. Single parenthood is often associated with greater risks of insecurity and exclusion, to which social policies must respond. It is thus important to know how long such situations last. In this paper, we present an original method for estimating the duration of such periods based on a sample of single parents for whom only the length of time spent in the situation at the time of the survey is observed (stock sampling). It combines a calculation of the likelihood function of the observations using the methodology proposed by Nickell and the introduction of proportional instantaneous probability of exiting the situation based on the Cox model. Several simulations replicating a variety of observed scenarios confirm the reliability of this method. Applying this method to the data from the 2011 Family and Housing Survey allows us to estimate that single parenthood ends after 3 years for half of the single parents.
目前,单亲家庭占法国未成年子女家庭的20%以上,与欧洲平均水平一致。单亲家庭往往伴随着更大的不安全和排斥风险,社会政策必须对此作出回应。因此,了解这种情况持续多久是很重要的。在本文中,我们提出了一种原始的方法来估计这些时期的持续时间,该方法基于单亲父母的样本,他们在调查时只观察到在这种情况下花费的时间长度(库存抽样)。它结合了使用Nickell提出的方法对观测值的似然函数的计算和基于Cox模型的退出情况的比例瞬时概率的引入。几个模拟复制了各种观测情景,证实了该方法的可靠性。将这种方法应用到2011年家庭和住房调查的数据中,我们可以估计出一半的单亲父母在3年后结束了单亲生活。
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引用次数: 0
Does women’s employment growth increase wage inequalities between couples? The case of France between 1982 and 2014 女性就业的增长是否加剧了夫妻之间的工资不平等?1982年至2014年的法国案例
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1913
Milan Bouchet-Valat
It has often been argued that women’s employment growth is a factor that contributes to the increase in inequalities between households due, in particular, to an alleged reinforcement of social homogamy. In contrast to this idea, an accounting approach to inequality decomposition, based on Insee’s Labour Force surveys (enquetes Emploi) shows that wage inequalities between couples aged 30 to 59 remained stable between 1982 and 2014 in France, whereas they would have increased had women’s employment rate not risen. This overall stability results from two converse developments, which are themselves linked to the strong growth in women’s employment over this period: a fall in wage inequality between women and an increase in the correlation of partners’ wages within couples. However, the almost uniform increase in women’s employment rate, regardless of their partner’s wage level, has limited the increase in the correlation of partners’ wages and prevented an increase in wage inequalities between couples.
人们经常争辩说,妇女就业的增加是造成家庭间不平等现象增加的一个因素,特别是由于所谓的社会同性婚姻的加强。与这种观点相反,一种基于法国国家统计局劳动力调查(enquetes employi)的不平等分解会计方法显示,在1982年至2014年期间,法国30岁至59岁夫妇之间的工资不平等保持稳定,而如果女性就业率没有上升,这种不平等会加剧。这种总体稳定源于两种相反的发展,这两种发展本身与这一时期妇女就业的强劲增长有关:妇女之间工资不平等的下降和夫妻之间伴侣工资的相关性增加。然而,无论其伴侣的工资水平如何,妇女就业率几乎一致地增加,限制了伴侣工资相关性的增加,并防止了夫妻之间工资不平等的增加。
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引用次数: 4
High turnover among nursing staff in private nursing homes for dependent elderly people in France: impact of the local environment and the wage 法国私人养老院护理人员的高流动率:当地环境和工资的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1912
C. Martin, Mélina Ramos-Gorand
[eng] The high turnover among nursing staff working in nursing homes for dependent elderly people (EHPADs) in France has negative consequences in terms both of cost and of quality of care for the residents. We study the causes of this staff turnover using the estimate from a probit model estimated on two samples, one of 5,478 nurses and the other of 13,444 nursing auxiliaries working in private EHPADs under open-ended contracts. The probability of the nurses and nursing auxiliaries leaving is significantly influenced by factors t related to the environment around the employee’s place of residence, computed at a highly disaggregated geographical level, including closeness to a hospital, competition between residential care facilities for elderly people, shortage of nursing staff, and attractiveness of the self-employed professional sector for nurses. The wage level, corrected for endogeneity, has a positive effect on the retention of nursing auxiliaries working in EHPADs, but it does not seem to have an influence in the case of nurses.
在法国,为受赡养老人服务的养老院(ehpad)工作的护理人员的高流动率对居民的护理成本和质量都产生了负面影响。我们使用probit模型对两个样本进行估计,一个是5,478名护士,另一个是13,444名在开放式合同下在私营ehpad工作的护理辅助人员。护士和护理辅助人员离职的概率受到与雇员居住地周围环境相关的因素的显著影响,这些因素在高度分解的地理层面上进行计算,包括离医院近、养老院之间的竞争、护理人员短缺以及自雇专业部门对护士的吸引力。工资水平,纠正内生性,有一个积极的影响护理辅助人员的保留在EHPADs工作,但它似乎没有对护士的情况下的影响。
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引用次数: 9
Do public subsidies have an impact on start-ups survival rates? An assessment for four cohorts of firms set up by previously unemployed entrepreneurs in France 公共补贴对初创企业的存活率有影响吗?一份对法国前失业企业家建立的四组公司的评估
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-07 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1910
D. Redor
[eng] Business start-up assistance has been adopted as a tool for implementing proactive employment policies across most OECD nations. In France, the ACCRE start-up support programme for unemployed people creating or taking over firms has expanded strongly since its introduction in 1979. The number of people joining the ACCRE programme exceeded 80,000 in 2006 and peaked at 220,000 in 2010. We have studied the effect of the ACCRE system on the survival (measured after five years) of four cohorts of firms started by unemployed entrepreneurs in 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006, based on survey data in INSEE's “new firms information system”, SINE. According to descriptive statistics, the survival outlook for firms created by ACCRE beneficiaries is better than that of firms created by non-recipients. However, using simultaneous equations to model ACCRE approval and firm survival revealed evidence of ACCRE recipient selection based on the administrative approval process, as well as self-selection by entrepreneurs. Adjusted accordingly, ACCRE appears to have no effect on the survival of supported firms for most categories of unemployed people.
在大多数经合组织国家,创业援助已被采纳为实施积极就业政策的工具。在法国,为失业人员创建或接管公司设立的ACCRE开办支助方案自1979年推出以来已得到大力扩展。2006年,参加ACCRE项目的人数超过8万人,2010年达到22万人的峰值。我们根据INSEE的“新公司信息系统”sin的调查数据,研究了ACCRE系统对1994年、1998年、2002年和2006年由失业企业家创办的四组公司的生存(五年后测量)的影响。根据描述性统计,ACCRE受益人创建的企业的生存前景优于非受益人创建的企业。然而,使用联立方程对ACCRE批准和企业生存进行建模,揭示了ACCRE接受者选择基于行政审批过程以及企业家自我选择的证据。相应地调整后,ACCRE似乎对大多数类别的失业人员支持的公司的生存没有影响。
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引用次数: 1
Comment: Effectiveness of public support for R&D and entrepreneurship 评论:公众支持研发和创业的有效性
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-07-05 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.493S.1911
P. Mohnen
[eng] The papers by Dortet-Bernadet and Sicsic and by Redor in this issue examine respectively the success of R&D financial support programs in stimulating private R&D and the success of subsidized start-ups for the unemployed in creating long-lasting firms. Both papers focus on small French firms. Both programs are found to suffer from a deadweight loss. This comment discusses the results obtained and the policy conclusions that can be drawn from them. It is argued that the deadweight loss is in part unavoidable but that there are ways to limit it, for instance by using a policy mix of R&D tax incentives and subsidies, favoring tax incentives for small firms and subsidies for large firms. It is also recalled that a policy ought to be evaluated from various perspectives. Besides R&D additionality and firm survival a full cost benefit analysis would also consider R&D externalities, firm retention and decrease in unemployment.
doret - bernadet、Sicsic和Redor在本期的论文分别考察了研发财政支持计划在刺激私人研发方面的成功,以及为失业者提供补贴的初创企业在创建持久性企业方面的成功。两家报纸都关注法国的小公司。我们发现这两个程序都存在无谓损失。这篇评论讨论了所获得的结果以及可以从中得出的政策结论。有人认为,无谓损失在某种程度上是不可避免的,但有办法限制它,例如,通过使用研发税收激励和补贴的政策组合,有利于小企业的税收激励和对大公司的补贴。还回顾,一项政策应当从不同的角度加以评价。除了研发附加性和企业生存外,全成本效益分析还应考虑研发外部性、企业保留和失业率下降。
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引用次数: 3
Age and generations: a general introduction 年龄和世代:一般介绍
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.491D.1902
D. Blanchet
[eng] This issue of the journal brings together five contributions devoted to comparing standards of living depending on age and generation : methodological contributions relating to equivalence scales and to the econometrics of pseudopanels ; the initial results for France of National Transfer Accounts (NTA) that break down National Accounts aggregates on the basis of age ; and comparisons of pension entitlements between public and private sector employees. We return to four of the questions they raise. The first is the issue of separating age, period, and cohort effects : how it is conducted should depend on the question asked. We then advocate a plural approach to intergenerational inequalities, consisting in looking at them from several complementary angles : for example, by referring not only to monetary income, but also to health, and access to education and employment, or housing. We continue by examining the concept of “ lifecycle deficit”, which is calculated by the NTA, and is the gap between what a generation consumes and what it produces through its labour throughout its existence. We discuss how it ties in with the broader issue of sustainability, which is the prospective part of the issue of intergenerational fairness. A minimalistic criterion of intergenerational fairness could be that each generation should be watchful to ensure that the next ones enjoy living conditions at least as good as it did. Finally, we comment on the various possible avenues for comparing pension entitlements in the public and private sectors : the difficulty of measuring contribution effort is an argument in favour of an overall approach combining direct salary and all of the pension entitlements.
本期杂志汇集了五篇关于根据年龄和代际比较生活水平的文章:与等效尺度和伪面板的计量经济学有关的方法上的文章;法国国民转移账户(NTA)的初步结果,该账户按年龄划分国民账户总量;以及公共部门和私营部门雇员养老金待遇的比较。我们回到他们提出的四个问题上来。首先是将年龄、时期和群体效应分开的问题:如何进行应该取决于所提出的问题。然后,我们主张对代际不平等采取多元方法,包括从几个互补的角度来看待这些不平等:例如,不仅要提到货币收入,还要提到健康、获得教育和就业或住房的机会。我们继续研究“生命周期赤字”的概念,这是由NTA计算出来的,是一代人在其一生中通过劳动生产的消费和生产之间的差距。我们讨论了它如何与更广泛的可持续性问题联系起来,这是代际公平问题的未来部分。代际公平的一个极简标准可能是,每一代人都应该保持警惕,以确保下一代至少能享受到和他们一样好的生活条件。最后,我们评论了比较公共和私营部门养恤金权利的各种可能途径:衡量缴款努力的困难是赞成将直接工资和所有养恤金权利结合起来的全面方法的一个论据。
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引用次数: 0
Calculating the standard of living of a household: one or several equivalence scales? 计算一个家庭的生活水平:一个或几个等效尺度?
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.491D.1907
H. Martin
[eng] Equivalence scales, used to compare the standard of living of households of different size and composition, take into account the economies of scale resulting from pooling income and expenditure within households. Two approaches can be used to estimate these scales: an “objective” approach based on modelling household consumption expenditure, or a "subjective” approach based on how households perceive their standard of living. This article focuses on the latter. Using data from the 1995 to 2011 editions of the French Household Expenditure survey (Budget de famille) by Insee, estimations of equivalence scales highlight the sensitivity of results to the model specification, estimation coverage, the choice of subjective living standard indicators and the conventions used to calculate the cost of dependent children. . The subjective approach does not give a robust identification of a single equivalence scale. It does, however, provide a set of possible equivalence scales; for instance, the adult equivalent for a child under 14 ranges from 0.15 to 0.8, while standard equivalence scales are based on a convention, such as 0.3 for the OECD-modified equivalence scale. Thus, for studies using these instruments, or for public policy, it may be preferable to consider a set of equivalence scales rather than just a single scale.
相等比额表是用来比较不同规模和组成的家庭的生活水平的,它考虑到在家庭内汇集收入和支出所产生的规模经济。可以使用两种方法来估计这些尺度:一种基于家庭消费支出模型的“客观”方法,或一种基于家庭如何看待其生活水平的“主观”方法。本文主要关注后者。使用法国国家统计局1995年至2011年版的法国家庭支出调查(Budget de famille)的数据,对等效尺度的估计突出了结果对模型规范、估计范围、主观生活水平指标的选择以及用于计算受抚养子女成本的惯例的敏感性。主观的方法不能给出一个单一的等效尺度的可靠的识别。然而,它确实提供了一套可能的等效尺度;例如,14岁以下儿童的成人当量在0.15至0.8之间,而标准等效量表是基于惯例的,例如经合组织修订的等效量表为0.3。因此,对于使用这些工具的研究或公共政策,最好考虑一套等效比额表,而不只是单一比额表。
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引用次数: 14
Lifecycle deficit in France: an assessment for the period 1979-2011 法国生命周期赤字:1979-2011年评估
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.491D.1905
Hippolyte d’Albis, Carole Bonnet, Julien Navaux, Jacques Pelletan, F. Wolff
[eng] National Transfer Accounts (NTA) measure the way in which individuals produce, consume, save, and share resources at each age. They make it possible to identify the periods for which private and public consumption (education, healthcare, etc.) is not funded by labour income, before identifying the transfers between the ages that enable such consumption to be funded. This article presents individual age profiles of consumption and labour income in France, as established using that method, and how they changed from 1979 to 2011. The profiles are also calculated at aggregate age level, highlighting the importance of changes in the demographic structures over time. We also reconstruct partial cohort trajectories, thereby providing a generational reading of the changes. In 2011, consumption by old people was higher than consumption by young people, which was not the case in 1979. The rise in consumption at each age, observed generation on generation, slowed down as from the cohort born in 1950. The range of ages at which labour incomes are received has narrowed, while the age at which labour income reaches its highest level has shifted from 36 to 46 over the years. The increase in labour incomes, observed at each age in the generations from 1930 to 1950, seems to have been interrupted momentarily between the 1950 and 1960 generations, at least at the beginning of working life. It resumed in the generations from 1970 onwards, but to a less pronounced extent. In 2011, the ages at which consumption exceeded labour income, corresponding to a deficit, ran from 0 to 24 and from 59 to 82. With the rise in life expectancy in France, the number of years in a deficit situation at high ages has increased considerably, going from 14 to 24 years between 1979 and 2011. Finally, the labour income and consumption profiles for France are very similar to those of the other European countries.
国民转移账户(NTA)衡量每个年龄段的个人生产、消费、储蓄和分享资源的方式。在确定能够为私人和公共消费(教育、医疗保健等)提供资金的年龄之间的转移之前,它们可以确定哪些时期不是由劳动收入提供资金的。本文展示了使用该方法建立的法国消费和劳动收入的个人年龄概况,以及它们从1979年到2011年的变化情况。这些概况也按总年龄水平计算,突出了人口结构随时间变化的重要性。我们还重建了部分队列轨迹,从而提供了对变化的代际解读。2011年,老年人的消费高于年轻人的消费,而1979年的情况并非如此。从1950年出生的人群开始,每个年龄段的消费增长都有所放缓。劳动收入的年龄范围缩小了,劳动收入达到最高水平的年龄从36岁转移到46岁。从1930年到1950年,在每个年龄段都观察到劳动收入的增长,但在1950年到1960年的几代人之间,似乎暂时中断了,至少在工作生涯的开始是这样。从1970年开始,它在几代人中恢复了,但程度不那么明显。2011年,消费超过劳动收入(对应赤字)的年龄从0岁变为24岁,从59岁变为82岁。随着法国人预期寿命的延长,高龄者处于赤字状态的年数大幅增加,从1979年的14年增加到2011年的24年。最后,法国的劳动收入和消费状况与其他欧洲国家非常相似。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Economie et Statistique
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