Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1997
François Legendre
[eng] The purpose of this paper is to trace the gradual emergence of microsimulation models dedicated to the analysis of tax and social security policies in France since the mid-1960s, as well as their subsequent consolidation since the mid-2000s. A brief outline of these models is given using the static/dynamic distinction. A connection is made between the construction of the Mir model (standing for Modele de l'impot sur le revenu, an income tax model) and the development of the Household income survey Revenus fiscaux. Then we distinguish two periods: An initial period that saw a proliferation of such models and a second period, of standardisation, during which the Ines model has acquired a central position. Besides ongoing evaluations (of minimum income and pension schemes, insurance for long-term care), the most recent expectations in this area relate to the ex ante evaluation of measures designed to accelerate the ecological transition and of universal income -type schemes. Finally, we underline that the recent replacement of all the periodic declarations made by employers to various administrations by a unique declaration (the Declaration sociale nominative, or DSN) significantly renews the range of administrative sources capable of feeding into these models.
本文的目的是追溯自20世纪60年代中期以来，致力于分析法国税收和社会保障政策的微观模拟模型的逐渐出现，以及自2000年代中期以来这些模型的后续巩固。使用静态/动态的区别给出了这些模型的简要概述。本文将Mir模型(即所得税模型model e del 'impot sur le revenu)的构建与家庭收入调查Revenus fiscal的发展联系起来。然后，我们区分了两个时期:最初的时期，看到了这些模型的扩散，第二个时期，标准化，在此期间，Ines模型获得了中心地位。除了正在进行的评价(最低收入和养恤金计划、长期护理保险)之外，这一领域的最新期望是预先评价旨在加速生态过渡的措施和普遍收入型计划。最后，我们要强调的是，最近雇主向各个管理部门提交的所有定期声明都被一份独特的声明(社会提名声明，或DSN)所取代，这大大更新了能够提供给这些模式的行政来源的范围。
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Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1999
Julie Djiriguian, François Sémécurbe
Natural language processing, is nowadays a toolbox routinely used to explore the content of various texts. On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the journal Économie et Statistique (then Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics), we propose in this short article an application to the abstracts of the 2,184 “academic” articles published in this journal since 1969 (see Box). Which words are most frequently used? What underlying topics do they suggest and have these topics changed over the years?
如今，自然语言处理是一种常规用于探索各种文本内容的工具箱。在《Économie et statisque》(当时的《Economie et statisque》/《经济与统计》)杂志创刊50周年之际，我们在这篇短文中提出一个应用程序，对该杂志自1969年以来发表的2184篇“学术”文章的摘要进行分析。哪些词最常用?它们暗示了什么潜在的主题，这些主题在这些年里发生了变化吗?
{"title":"Fifty Years of Abstracts in the Journal Economie et Statistique","authors":"Julie Djiriguian, François Sémécurbe","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1999","url":null,"abstract":"Natural language processing, is nowadays a toolbox routinely used to explore the content of various texts. On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the journal Économie et Statistique (then Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics), we propose in this short article an application to the abstracts of the 2,184 “academic” articles published in this journal since 1969 (see Box). Which words are most frequently used? What underlying topics do they suggest and have these topics changed over the years?","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74581529","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1995
A. Quinet
[eng] In the course of policy making to mitigate the effects of climate change, economists seek to attach a monetary value to actual or foregone carbon emissions. Charting a long term pathway for carbon prices involves measuring the most cost effective way to reduce emissions, assigning value to long term investment, and having a benchmark against which to set priorities. The carbon neutrality target, as set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, calls for higher carbon values in monetary terms than those historically obtained under Factor 4 targets derived from a cost benefit approach. This paper looks at developments in carbon values over time, with an emphasis on their underlying methodologies and the role of uncertainty in valuation. It then sets out how carbon values can be used in policy making to mitigate the effects of climate change.
{"title":"What Value Do We Attach to Climate Action?","authors":"A. Quinet","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1995","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1995","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] In the course of policy making to mitigate the effects of climate change, economists seek to attach a monetary value to actual or foregone carbon emissions. Charting a long term pathway for carbon prices involves measuring the most cost effective way to reduce emissions, assigning value to long term investment, and having a benchmark against which to set priorities. The carbon neutrality target, as set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, calls for higher carbon values in monetary terms than those historically obtained under Factor 4 targets derived from a cost benefit approach. This paper looks at developments in carbon values over time, with an emphasis on their underlying methodologies and the role of uncertainty in valuation. It then sets out how carbon values can be used in policy making to mitigate the effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79986429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1996
D. Fougère, N. Jacquemet
[eng] This paper describes, in a non technical way, the main impact evaluation methods, both experimental and quasi experimental, and the statistical model underlying them. In the first part, we provide a brief survey of the papers making use of those methods that have been published by the journal Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics over the past fifteen years. In the second part, some of the most important methodological advances to have recently been put forward in this field of research are presented. To finish, we focus not only on the need to pay particular attention to the accuracy of the estimated effects, but also on the requirement to replicate evaluations, carried out by experimentation or quasi experimentation, in order to distinguish false positives from proven effects.
本文以一种非技术的方式描述了主要的影响评价方法，包括实验和准实验方法，以及它们背后的统计模型。在第一部分中，我们对过去15年来发表在《经济与统计》(Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics)杂志上的使用这些方法的论文进行了简要调查。在第二部分中，介绍了最近在这一研究领域提出的一些最重要的方法进展。最后，我们不仅关注需要特别注意估计效果的准确性，而且还关注通过实验或准实验进行的重复评估的要求，以区分假阳性和已证实的效果。
{"title":"Causal Inference and Impact Evaluation","authors":"D. Fougère, N. Jacquemet","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1996","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1996","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] This paper describes, in a non technical way, the main impact evaluation methods, both experimental and quasi experimental, and the statistical model underlying them. In the first part, we provide a brief survey of the papers making use of those methods that have been published by the journal Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics over the past fifteen years. In the second part, some of the most important methodological advances to have recently been put forward in this field of research are presented. To finish, we focus not only on the need to pay particular attention to the accuracy of the estimated effects, but also on the requirement to replicate evaluations, carried out by experimentation or quasi experimentation, in order to distinguish false positives from proven effects.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82117591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1993
G. Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon
[eng] We challenge the accepted wisdom of a global secular decline in the labor share. A simple theoretical model is proposed to highlight the main factors of change in the labor share. We document three issues in the existing literature: (i) starting periods for the empirical analysis; (ii) accounting for self employment; and (iii) accounting for residential real estate income. An empirical analysis is carried out since the post war period for France and the United States, and since the 1990s for ten developed countries and on a six country “euro area”. How the three questions above are addressed is crucial to the diagnosis. When the biases that may arise with the three issues mentioned above are eliminated, the labor share in the market sector does not show a general downward or upward trend. The choice of period has a huge impact, as does the treatment of real estate services, whose inclusion or not in the value added can result in significantly different trends.
{"title":"The Labor Share in the Long Term: A Decline?","authors":"G. Cette, Lorraine Koehl, Thomas Philippon","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1993","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1993","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] We challenge the accepted wisdom of a global secular decline in the labor share. A simple theoretical model is proposed to highlight the main factors of change in the labor share. We document three issues in the existing literature: (i) starting periods for the empirical analysis; (ii) accounting for self employment; and (iii) accounting for residential real estate income. An empirical analysis is carried out since the post war period for France and the United States, and since the 1990s for ten developed countries and on a six country “euro area”. How the three questions above are addressed is crucial to the diagnosis. When the biases that may arise with the three issues mentioned above are eliminated, the labor share in the market sector does not show a general downward or upward trend. The choice of period has a huge impact, as does the treatment of real estate services, whose inclusion or not in the value added can result in significantly different trends.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82468232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1986
Daniel Cohen
[eng] So much water has flowed under the bridge since the first issue of Economie et Statistique. Fifty years ago, France was just emerging from the political and social big chaos of May 1968. The country was driven by a powerful growth spurt, known as the Trente Glorieuses (or the Thirty Glorious Years), according to the famous term coined by Jean Fourastie…
{"title":"Preface – Times Have Changed","authors":"Daniel Cohen","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1986","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] So much water has flowed under the bridge since the first issue of Economie et Statistique. Fifty years ago, France was just emerging from the political and social big chaos of May 1968. The country was driven by a powerful growth spurt, known as the Trente Glorieuses (or the Thirty Glorious Years), according to the famous term coined by Jean Fourastie…","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82933652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1989
O. Marchand, C. Minni
[eng] This paper looks at the major changes in the French labour market since the 1960s. Over this period, the labour force has steadily increased, primarily owing to demo¬graphics (the post war baby boom). The labour force also saw increasing female employment, higher qualifications and a reduction in the length of working life at both ends. Three factors have driven changes in labour market trends in the last 50 years: economic globalisation, the emergence of ICT and development of automation, and the growth of the service economy, particularly financial services. For their part, employment policies have sought to “enrich” the employment content of growth. After the 1974 break in the growth trend, the interaction of labour supply and demand led to rising unemployment and increasing diversity in employ¬ment statuses. The growth of short term and very short term contracts, as well as arrange¬ments falling between salaried and non salaried employment, illustrate a significant increase in employment precariousness.
{"title":"The Major Transformations of the French Labour Market Since the Early 1960s","authors":"O. Marchand, C. Minni","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1989","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1989","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] This paper looks at the major changes in the French labour market since the 1960s. Over this period, the labour force has steadily increased, primarily owing to demo¬graphics (the post war baby boom). The labour force also saw increasing female employment, higher qualifications and a reduction in the length of working life at both ends. Three factors have driven changes in labour market trends in the last 50 years: economic globalisation, the emergence of ICT and development of automation, and the growth of the service economy, particularly financial services. For their part, employment policies have sought to “enrich” the employment content of growth. After the 1974 break in the growth trend, the interaction of labour supply and demand led to rising unemployment and increasing diversity in employ¬ment statuses. The growth of short term and very short term contracts, as well as arrange¬ments falling between salaried and non salaried employment, illustrate a significant increase in employment precariousness.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87647660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-06DOI: 10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1988
Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille-Lebret
[eng] This article sheds light on the long term development of income and wealth inequality and the link between them in France. Following a sharp decline in inequality that began at the beginning of the First World War, a trend towards inequality has emerged (and continues) since the mid 1980s. The historical perspective makes it possible to illustrate how small changes in inequality in savings, returns or earnings can have strong long term effects on wealth concen-tration. Two other major trends have been observed since the 1970s. One is the narrowing of the gap in labour income between men and women – although it remains high. The other is the increased difficulty, for those who only have access to labour income, to access the high¬est wealth brackets. Finally, our comparisons between France and the United States show that wealth and income inequalities were comparable or even lower in the United States before the 1970s. That country has since become much more unequal.
{"title":"Income and Wealth Inequality in France: Developments and Links over the Long Term","authors":"Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille-Lebret","doi":"10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.510t.1988","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] This article sheds light on the long term development of income and wealth inequality and the link between them in France. Following a sharp decline in inequality that began at the beginning of the First World War, a trend towards inequality has emerged (and continues) since the mid 1980s. The historical perspective makes it possible to illustrate how small changes in inequality in savings, returns or earnings can have strong long term effects on wealth concen-tration. Two other major trends have been observed since the 1970s. One is the narrowing of the gap in labour income between men and women – although it remains high. The other is the increased difficulty, for those who only have access to labour income, to access the high¬est wealth brackets. Finally, our comparisons between France and the United States show that wealth and income inequalities were comparable or even lower in the United States before the 1970s. That country has since become much more unequal.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79449519","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-21DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2018.503D.1958
Flora Bellone
This special thematic feature on “New impacts of globalization” was developed, in partnership with the French Economic Association (Association francaise de science economique, AFSE), from the contributions presented at its 66th annual congress which took place in Nice in June 2017. The four articles published here illustrate the different channels by which a country's international opennessth impacts its wealth, employment and subnational inequalities. This introduction builds on these works to present some recent avenues of research for modelling and quantifying the impacts of globalization.
{"title":"Introduction – New Impacts of Globalization","authors":"Flora Bellone","doi":"10.24187/ECOSTAT.2018.503D.1958","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ECOSTAT.2018.503D.1958","url":null,"abstract":"This special thematic feature on “New impacts of globalization” was developed, in partnership with the French Economic Association (Association francaise de science economique, AFSE), from the contributions presented at its 66th annual congress which took place in Nice in June 2017. The four articles published here illustrate the different channels by which a country's international opennessth impacts its wealth, employment and subnational inequalities. This introduction builds on these works to present some recent avenues of research for modelling and quantifying the impacts of globalization.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78067227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-02-07DOI: 10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.497D.1928
Kim Antunez, B. Baccaïni, M. Guérois, Ronan Ysebaert
[eng] Since 1 January 2016, the 22 French metropolitan regions have merged to form 13 new regions. The deployment of public policies in these regions with enhanced areas of jurisdiction leads us to wonder about the way in which the merger leads to the reduction of territorial disparities or not. We analyse these disparities using five sociodemographic indicators. Several geographical levels are mobilised : the European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) and the French employment zones. The main characteristics of the new regions in a national and European context are highlighted using statistical and spatial data analysis methods. Inter-regional contrasts are relatively low in France, in comparison with those prevailing in other European States. The main discontinuities are found between countries rather than between regions within a country. At the national level, some merged regions appear relatively homogeneous (Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Bourgogne-Franche-Comte and Normandie) compared to others more contrasted (Hauts-de-France, Occitanie, Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes and Grand Est). The main territorial discontinuities are observed within the same regions and not between them.
{"title":"Disparities and territorial discontinuities in France with its new regions: A multiscalar and multidimensional interpretation","authors":"Kim Antunez, B. Baccaïni, M. Guérois, Ronan Ysebaert","doi":"10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.497D.1928","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24187/ECOSTAT.2017.497D.1928","url":null,"abstract":"[eng] Since 1 January 2016, the 22 French metropolitan regions have merged to form 13 new regions. The deployment of public policies in these regions with enhanced areas of jurisdiction leads us to wonder about the way in which the merger leads to the reduction of territorial disparities or not. We analyse these disparities using five sociodemographic indicators. Several geographical levels are mobilised : the European Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) and the French employment zones. The main characteristics of the new regions in a national and European context are highlighted using statistical and spatial data analysis methods. Inter-regional contrasts are relatively low in France, in comparison with those prevailing in other European States. The main discontinuities are found between countries rather than between regions within a country. At the national level, some merged regions appear relatively homogeneous (Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Bourgogne-Franche-Comte and Normandie) compared to others more contrasted (Hauts-de-France, Occitanie, Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes and Grand Est). The main territorial discontinuities are observed within the same regions and not between them.","PeriodicalId":38830,"journal":{"name":"Economie et Statistique","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86662262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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