Pub Date : 2023-02-07DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2203548
While the level of violence in the Syrian civil war has declined significantly since the 2013–17 peak and territorial lines of control are largely frozen, humanitarian suffering is at an all-time high. Meanwhile, the conflict’s regional and international political dynamics and alliances are shifting, with the Syrian government using the February 2023 earthquake affecting the north of the country, and related international-relief efforts, as an opportunity to attempt to reconnect diplomatically with other countries in the region.
{"title":"Syria’s frozen conflict and a wave of earthquake-related diplomacy","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2203548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2203548","url":null,"abstract":"While the level of violence in the Syrian civil war has declined significantly since the 2013–17 peak and territorial lines of control are largely frozen, humanitarian suffering is at an all-time high. Meanwhile, the conflict’s regional and international political dynamics and alliances are shifting, with the Syrian government using the February 2023 earthquake affecting the north of the country, and related international-relief efforts, as an opportunity to attempt to reconnect diplomatically with other countries in the region.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"29 1","pages":"vii - ix"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44653068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-07DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2190696
Vietnam’s president and two deputy prime ministers were removed from their offices in January 2023 as part of an anti-corruption probe related to the coronavirus pandemic. The move was also part of a years-long effort by the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Nguyen Phu Trong, to ensure that the country’s high officials prioritise party loyalty over government efficiency. The appointment of Vo Van Thuong as president on 1 March was yet another signal that Trong and his allies have increased their influence over the party and the state. In foreign-policy terms, this raises doubts about the prospect of Vietnam joining any coalition led by the United States that is effectively anti-China in orientation, given Trong’s view that China’s support is essential to the success of the CPV.
越南总统和两位副总理于2023年1月被免职，这是与冠状病毒大流行有关的反腐败调查的一部分。此举也是越共总书记阮富仲多年来努力的一部分，以确保该国高级官员将对党的忠诚置于政府效率之上。Vo Van Thuong于3月1日被任命为总统，这是Trong及其盟友增加了对党和国家影响力的又一个信号。在外交政策方面，鉴于仲认为中国的支持对越共的成功至关重要，这引发了人们对越南加入美国领导的任何在方向上实际上是反华的联盟的前景的怀疑。
{"title":"Vietnam: leadership turnover and foreign-policy implications","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2190696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2190696","url":null,"abstract":"Vietnam’s president and two deputy prime ministers were removed from their offices in January 2023 as part of an anti-corruption probe related to the coronavirus pandemic. The move was also part of a years-long effort by the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), Nguyen Phu Trong, to ensure that the country’s high officials prioritise party loyalty over government efficiency. The appointment of Vo Van Thuong as president on 1 March was yet another signal that Trong and his allies have increased their influence over the party and the state. In foreign-policy terms, this raises doubts about the prospect of Vietnam joining any coalition led by the United States that is effectively anti-China in orientation, given Trong’s view that China’s support is essential to the success of the CPV.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44208176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-07DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2208468
In January 2023, soon after forming a sixth Israeli government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began advancing a far-reaching package of judicial reforms that, if adopted, would fundamentally change the relationship between the judiciary and other branches of government. The reforms would benefit Netanyahu politically and legally, given that he is on trial for corruption and other criminal charges. Public debate over the proposed reforms has precipitated the worst domestic crisis in Israel’s history and has galvanised a broad cross-section of society into joining a new, activist, liberal-centrist camp, with potentially far-reaching political consequences.
{"title":"The severe political storm in Israel","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2208468","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2208468","url":null,"abstract":"In January 2023, soon after forming a sixth Israeli government, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began advancing a far-reaching package of judicial reforms that, if adopted, would fundamentally change the relationship between the judiciary and other branches of government. The reforms would benefit Netanyahu politically and legally, given that he is on trial for corruption and other criminal charges. Public debate over the proposed reforms has precipitated the worst domestic crisis in Israel’s history and has galvanised a broad cross-section of society into joining a new, activist, liberal-centrist camp, with potentially far-reaching political consequences.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"29 1","pages":"x - xii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45342252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-07DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2198430
The capabilities of large language models have improved significantly in recent years and have come to broader public attention with the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022. The sudden general interest in these models includes attention from potentially malicious actors, who may seek to misuse them, and attention from policymakers, who are now increasingly invested in national competition over language-model development and securing access to the massive amount of computing power needed to support innovation in this domain.
{"title":"Large language models: fast proliferation and budding international competition","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2198430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2198430","url":null,"abstract":"The capabilities of large language models have improved significantly in recent years and have come to broader public attention with the release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022. The sudden general interest in these models includes attention from potentially malicious actors, who may seek to misuse them, and attention from policymakers, who are now increasingly invested in national competition over language-model development and securing access to the massive amount of computing power needed to support innovation in this domain.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"iv - vi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48935239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2170770
Japan’s release in December 2022 of three transformational strategy documents signalled its intent to adopt a new approach in the coming years to national-security and defence issues. The National Security Strategy pledges to increase defence spending from roughly 1.0% of GDP to 2.0% by the fiscal year beginning in 2027. The documents also call for Japan’s armed forces to acquire counterstrike missile capabilities and launch new efforts to overcome the civil–military divide that has long undermined Japan’s defence sector by hindering the development and adoption of new capabilities.
{"title":"Japan’s new national-security and defence strategies","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2170770","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2170770","url":null,"abstract":"Japan’s release in December 2022 of three transformational strategy documents signalled its intent to adopt a new approach in the coming years to national-security and defence issues. The National Security Strategy pledges to increase defence spending from roughly 1.0% of GDP to 2.0% by the fiscal year beginning in 2027. The documents also call for Japan’s armed forces to acquire counterstrike missile capabilities and launch new efforts to overcome the civil–military divide that has long undermined Japan’s defence sector by hindering the development and adoption of new capabilities.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46394834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2185374
Russia signed a 30-year agreement to supply natural gas to China just before launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was the second such agreement between the countries, with the first occurring after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. China, however, appears reluctant to become dependent on Russian supplies and has been careful to structure the partnership to maintain the upper hand. This means that Russia’s efforts to divert gas exports eastward following its energy divorce with the European Union will achieve limited gains, leaving potentially 150 billion cubic metres of production capacity stranded for the foreseeable future.
{"title":"The state of China–Russia cooperation over natural gas","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2185374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2185374","url":null,"abstract":"Russia signed a 30-year agreement to supply natural gas to China just before launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was the second such agreement between the countries, with the first occurring after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. China, however, appears reluctant to become dependent on Russian supplies and has been careful to structure the partnership to maintain the upper hand. This means that Russia’s efforts to divert gas exports eastward following its energy divorce with the European Union will achieve limited gains, leaving potentially 150 billion cubic metres of production capacity stranded for the foreseeable future.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"29 1","pages":"viii - xi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42995358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2176982
On 19 December 2022, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected for a second five-year term as leader of the ruling African National Congress. This enhanced his political standing at the end of a tumultuous year in which he faced serious charges of corruption and presided over governance failures and the worsening of economic conditions. His increased level of influence over party affairs will serve as a double-edged sword ahead of the 2024 general election because it removes one of his main excuses for underachievement, namely that his position had been so fragile that he was compelled to delay the implementation of difficult reforms.
2022年12月19日，南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨(Cyril Ramaphosa)再次当选执政的非洲人国民大会(African National Congress)领导人，开始第二个五年任期。在动荡的一年结束之际，这提高了他的政治地位。在这一年里，他面临严重的腐败指控，并在执政失败和经济状况恶化的情况下担任总统。他对党内事务的影响力的增强，将在2024年大选前成为一把双刃剑，因为这消除了他的政绩不佳的主要借口之一，即他的地位非常脆弱，以至于不得不推迟实施艰难的改革。
{"title":"Governance problems in South Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2176982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2176982","url":null,"abstract":"On 19 December 2022, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa was re-elected for a second five-year term as leader of the ruling African National Congress. This enhanced his political standing at the end of a tumultuous year in which he faced serious charges of corruption and presided over governance failures and the worsening of economic conditions. His increased level of influence over party affairs will serve as a double-edged sword ahead of the 2024 general election because it removes one of his main excuses for underachievement, namely that his position had been so fragile that he was compelled to delay the implementation of difficult reforms.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"29 1","pages":"iv - v"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42949765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-02DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2023.2180868
The United States’ rejection of four panel reports issued by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2022 in relation to US steel tariffs targeting China has attracted little attention outside trade-policy circles, but it has dealt a serious blow to the credibility of the organisation. The weakening of the WTO and, more broadly, the rules-based trade system that has endured for nearly three decades, will enable countries with economic power to do as they please, particularly regarding trade in strategic resources, manufactured goods and technologies.
{"title":"The precarious position of the WTO","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2023.2180868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2023.2180868","url":null,"abstract":"The United States’ rejection of four panel reports issued by the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2022 in relation to US steel tariffs targeting China has attracted little attention outside trade-policy circles, but it has dealt a serious blow to the credibility of the organisation. The weakening of the WTO and, more broadly, the rules-based trade system that has endured for nearly three decades, will enable countries with economic power to do as they please, particularly regarding trade in strategic resources, manufactured goods and technologies.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":"29 1","pages":"vi - vii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46778585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-26DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2161174
A new right-wing coalition took power in Italy following a general election on 25 September 2022. The coalition is headed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Despite her background in far-right politics, Meloni’s government is continuing many of the policies implemented by the unity government it replaced, which was led by technocrat Mario Draghi, in part because it faces the same economic constraints that have been imposed by the European Union, the bond markets and inflation.
{"title":"Italy’s new right-wing government","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2161174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2161174","url":null,"abstract":"A new right-wing coalition took power in Italy following a general election on 25 September 2022. The coalition is headed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Despite her background in far-right politics, Meloni’s government is continuing many of the policies implemented by the unity government it replaced, which was led by technocrat Mario Draghi, in part because it faces the same economic constraints that have been imposed by the European Union, the bond markets and inflation.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"iv - vi"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46420779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-11-26DOI: 10.1080/13567888.2022.2161170
Chile experienced an unusual level of political turmoil from 2019–22. A major effort to rewrite the country’s constitution failed in September 2022, dealing a political blow to President Gabriel Boric, who had taken office months earlier. It also caused political fragmentation in the National Congress of Chile, which will make passing major legislation difficult in 2023 amid an expected economic downturn.
{"title":"Chile’s fragmented political scene","authors":"","doi":"10.1080/13567888.2022.2161170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/13567888.2022.2161170","url":null,"abstract":"Chile experienced an unusual level of political turmoil from 2019–22. A major effort to rewrite the country’s constitution failed in September 2022, dealing a political blow to President Gabriel Boric, who had taken office months earlier. It also caused political fragmentation in the National Congress of Chile, which will make passing major legislation difficult in 2023 amid an expected economic downturn.","PeriodicalId":38903,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Comments","volume":" ","pages":"i - iii"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41661344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：