Pub Date : 2021-11-11DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1998198
Brodie Hobbs, Jan Feld
In this paper, we study a scheme that would make increasing KiwiSaver contributions easier. This scheme would give people the option to automatically increase their contributions each year until a maximum contribution rate is reached. We study the effect of offering this scheme with a survey experiment in which respondents are asked to fill in KiwiSaver deduction forms with and without the possibility of joining the scheme. We find that 29% of respondents would choose to join the scheme if offered. Offering the scheme has no detectable impact on current contribution rates and can substantially increase future contribution rates.
{"title":"What would happen if people could choose automatically increasing KiwiSaver contributions?","authors":"Brodie Hobbs, Jan Feld","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1998198","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1998198","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we study a scheme that would make increasing KiwiSaver contributions easier. This scheme would give people the option to automatically increase their contributions each year until a maximum contribution rate is reached. We study the effect of offering this scheme with a survey experiment in which respondents are asked to fill in KiwiSaver deduction forms with and without the possibility of joining the scheme. We find that 29% of respondents would choose to join the scheme if offered. Offering the scheme has no detectable impact on current contribution rates and can substantially increase future contribution rates.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"57 1","pages":"61 - 75"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48323386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-15DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1963137
J. Creedy
ABSTRACT This lecture examines the nature of the changing focus of economics during the 19th century, which is often referred to as the ‘marginal revolution’. The change is characterised as a focus on the theory of exchange, and the beginnings of welfare economics. Attention is given to early contributions by J.S. Mill, Cournot, and Whewell, and the ‘neoclassical economists, Jevons, Marshall, Walras and Edgeworth.
{"title":"Distinguished fellow lecture: a journey with the catallactists","authors":"J. Creedy","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1963137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1963137","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This lecture examines the nature of the changing focus of economics during the 19th century, which is often referred to as the ‘marginal revolution’. The change is characterised as a focus on the theory of exchange, and the beginnings of welfare economics. Attention is given to early contributions by J.S. Mill, Cournot, and Whewell, and the ‘neoclassical economists, Jevons, Marshall, Walras and Edgeworth.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"319 - 331"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48932166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-06DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1960410
M. Gibbons, L. Oxley
The relationship between patenting and output series and real GDP is examined using both nineteenth century New Zealand patent applications, and applications weighted by fees and compulsory advertising expenditure. Weighting patents is desirable because of the rapid growth in applications after initial fees were reduced in the early 1880s. The expenditure data usually provides a better measure of intellectual property investment, with considerably more Granger causality relationships between output and patents expenditure identified than between output and unweighted applications. Nevertheless, there were still important, and sometimes complementary, relationships between patent applications and output. Output usually led patenting, particularly using expenditure data.
{"title":"The relationship of patenting applications and expenditure with output and real GDP in nineteenth century colonial New Zealand","authors":"M. Gibbons, L. Oxley","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1960410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1960410","url":null,"abstract":"The relationship between patenting and output series and real GDP is examined using both nineteenth century New Zealand patent applications, and applications weighted by fees and compulsory advertising expenditure. Weighting patents is desirable because of the rapid growth in applications after initial fees were reduced in the early 1880s. The expenditure data usually provides a better measure of intellectual property investment, with considerably more Granger causality relationships between output and patents expenditure identified than between output and unweighted applications. Nevertheless, there were still important, and sometimes complementary, relationships between patent applications and output. Output usually led patenting, particularly using expenditure data.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"126 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1960410","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42867293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-06DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1959164
Mark J. Holmes
{"title":"Citation for John Creedy to mark his Distinguished Fellow award by the New Zealand Association of Economists","authors":"Mark J. Holmes","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1959164","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1959164","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"332 - 333"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1959164","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42744473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-22DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1954072
A. King
ABSTRACT A claimed benefit of an inflation target is that it provides an anchor for long-term inflation expectations. We evaluate this by using survey-based inflation expectations data for New Zealand to assess whether forecasts for different horizons systematically converge to the RBNZ's target. We find evidence of this from the aggregated expectations data, and for most individual professional economists and financial sector forecasters in our sample. However, the evidence from forecasters in other sectors is mixed. In particular, those from the business community appear more focussed on the RBNZ's inflation track record. This could contribute to episodes of persistently low inflation.
{"title":"Does New Zealand's inflation target anchor long-term expectations?","authors":"A. King","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1954072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1954072","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A claimed benefit of an inflation target is that it provides an anchor for long-term inflation expectations. We evaluate this by using survey-based inflation expectations data for New Zealand to assess whether forecasts for different horizons systematically converge to the RBNZ's target. We find evidence of this from the aggregated expectations data, and for most individual professional economists and financial sector forecasters in our sample. However, the evidence from forecasters in other sectors is mixed. In particular, those from the business community appear more focussed on the RBNZ's inflation track record. This could contribute to episodes of persistently low inflation.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"235 - 257"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1954072","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46763039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-03DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1948909
R. Vaithianathan, T. Maloney, Moira Wilson, A. Staneva, Nan Jiang
Teen Parent Units (TPUs) provide education and support for high school students who are pregnant or parents in New Zealand. They provide childcare, links to health and other social services, guidance and mentoring. Because this programme is only available in some schools, evaluation is possible using teen mothers and schools in other geographic areas as controls. Using administrative data, this study evaluates the impact of TPUs on school attendance and completion outcomes amongst nearly all teen mothers born between 1991 and 1994 in New Zealand. We find that young women who had access to TPUs were less likely to dropout of school and more likely to complete school qualifications. Among all teen mothers, access to a TPU at or prior to conception significantly increased the probability of school enrolment after giving birth. Among teen mothers enrolled in school post-birth, TPU access substantially increased the probabilities of completing formal high school qualifications.
{"title":"The impact of school-based support on educational outcomes of teen-mothers: evidence from linked administrative data","authors":"R. Vaithianathan, T. Maloney, Moira Wilson, A. Staneva, Nan Jiang","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1948909","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1948909","url":null,"abstract":"Teen Parent Units (TPUs) provide education and support for high school students who are pregnant or parents in New Zealand. They provide childcare, links to health and other social services, guidance and mentoring. Because this programme is only available in some schools, evaluation is possible using teen mothers and schools in other geographic areas as controls. Using administrative data, this study evaluates the impact of TPUs on school attendance and completion outcomes amongst nearly all teen mothers born between 1991 and 1994 in New Zealand. We find that young women who had access to TPUs were less likely to dropout of school and more likely to complete school qualifications. Among all teen mothers, access to a TPU at or prior to conception significantly increased the probability of school enrolment after giving birth. Among teen mothers enrolled in school post-birth, TPU access substantially increased the probabilities of completing formal high school qualifications.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"245 - 262"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1948909","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44686055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-04DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1950200
Richard Watt
The 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics (officially known as The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel), was awarded to two professors from Stanford University, Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson, ‘for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats’. What is probably less well-known is the notable impact made by two New Zealand economists, both economics graduates from the University of Canterbury, in shaping the theory of auctions for which the prize was awarded. This paper looks at the ‘web of influence’ among the two New Zealand economists and the two new Nobel prize winners in as far as the development of auction theory is concerned.
2020年诺贝尔经济学奖(官方名称为纪念阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔的瑞典央行经济学奖)被授予斯坦福大学的两位教授保罗·米尔格罗姆和罗伯特·威尔逊，以“表彰他们对拍卖理论的改进和新拍卖形式的发明”。可能不太为人所知的是，两位毕业于坎特伯雷大学(University of Canterbury)经济学专业的新西兰经济学家在塑造拍卖理论方面所产生的显著影响。本文着眼于两位新西兰经济学家和两位新诺贝尔奖获得者之间的“影响网”，就拍卖理论的发展而言。
{"title":"The 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in economics: the Canterbury connection","authors":"Richard Watt","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1950200","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1950200","url":null,"abstract":"The 2020 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics (officially known as The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel), was awarded to two professors from Stanford University, Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson, ‘for improvements to auction theory and inventions of new auction formats’. What is probably less well-known is the notable impact made by two New Zealand economists, both economics graduates from the University of Canterbury, in shaping the theory of auctions for which the prize was awarded. This paper looks at the ‘web of influence’ among the two New Zealand economists and the two new Nobel prize winners in as far as the development of auction theory is concerned.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"166 - 172"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-05-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1950200","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48641005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-03-29DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1904439
Stephanié Rossouw, T. Greyling
In this paper, we construct a multidimensional composite well-being measure for South Africa at a micro-level. This allows us to compare the inequalities in well-being in 2008 and 2017. Additionally, we determine the factors, which are significantly related to the inequality in well-being at these two points in time, using recentered influence function (RIF) regressions. Lastly, we use the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition technique to determine if the change in well-being inequality, is mainly due to an endowment – or a coefficient effect. The RIF results show factors increasing well-being inequality are demographic but also extends to knowledge and skills in the technology sector, access to financial markets, transport and living outside of urban centres. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition results indicate the difference in well-being inequality is mainly due to the coefficient effect. Policies should not only endeavour to attain a more equal spread of endowments but should also consider the elasticities of these endowments.
{"title":"Inequality in South Africa: what does a composite index of well-being reveal?","authors":"Stephanié Rossouw, T. Greyling","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1904439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1904439","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we construct a multidimensional composite well-being measure for South Africa at a micro-level. This allows us to compare the inequalities in well-being in 2008 and 2017. Additionally, we determine the factors, which are significantly related to the inequality in well-being at these two points in time, using recentered influence function (RIF) regressions. Lastly, we use the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition technique to determine if the change in well-being inequality, is mainly due to an endowment – or a coefficient effect. The RIF results show factors increasing well-being inequality are demographic but also extends to knowledge and skills in the technology sector, access to financial markets, transport and living outside of urban centres. Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition results indicate the difference in well-being inequality is mainly due to the coefficient effect. Policies should not only endeavour to attain a more equal spread of endowments but should also consider the elasticities of these endowments.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"221 - 243"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1904439","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45304426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-07DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185
R. Meade
The Covid-19 pandemic risks causing a major collapse in ‘economic confidence’ – i.e. the beliefs of firms and households that all other firms and households will maintain their economic activity – and hence in aggregate demand. Economic responses like wage subsidies may prove inadequate for sustaining confidence due to their limited scope, and because their high cost makes them unsustainable. An alternative is ex post revenue insurance, enabling firms and households to borrow against their own future incomes to top up current pandemic-related income shortfalls. Making such loans repayable through future tax surcharges (along the lines of existing student loans schemes) is administratively feasible, and likely to be both more effective and affordable – and inter-generationally equitable – than existing support measures. Government pre-committing to making such loans available for as long as they are necessary should maintain economic confidence and aggregate demand, minimising the pandemic's economic harms.
{"title":"Vaccinating the economy against Covid-19: ex post revenue insurance for firms and households to sustain economic confidence and aggregate demand","authors":"R. Meade","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic risks causing a major collapse in ‘economic confidence’ – i.e. the beliefs of firms and households that all other firms and households will maintain their economic activity – and hence in aggregate demand. Economic responses like wage subsidies may prove inadequate for sustaining confidence due to their limited scope, and because their high cost makes them unsustainable. An alternative is ex post revenue insurance, enabling firms and households to borrow against their own future incomes to top up current pandemic-related income shortfalls. Making such loans repayable through future tax surcharges (along the lines of existing student loans schemes) is administratively feasible, and likely to be both more effective and affordable – and inter-generationally equitable – than existing support measures. Government pre-committing to making such loans available for as long as they are necessary should maintain economic confidence and aggregate demand, minimising the pandemic's economic harms.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"90 - 97"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48870815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-19DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1871063
Andrew Besuyen, T. Coupé, K. Das
ABSTRACT This paper examines the effectiveness of explicit and implicit foreign exchange (FX) interventions in New Zealand: one secret spot market intervention and two implicit interventions – a regular Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and an unexpected oral intervention by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor addressing the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). By applying a synthetic control methodology to a unique dataset of RBNZ interventions, we construct a counterfactual to estimate their effect. The results indicate that the actual intervention and the MPS release were ineffective in moving the NZD. However, the speech depreciated the NZD by 1.12%, although the effect was small and short lived. Our findings suggest that FX interventions, explicit or implicit, are a weak policy tool to affect the exchange rate in New Zealand.
{"title":"Effectiveness of foreign exchange interventions: evidence from New Zealand","authors":"Andrew Besuyen, T. Coupé, K. Das","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1871063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871063","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines the effectiveness of explicit and implicit foreign exchange (FX) interventions in New Zealand: one secret spot market intervention and two implicit interventions – a regular Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) and an unexpected oral intervention by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor addressing the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). By applying a synthetic control methodology to a unique dataset of RBNZ interventions, we construct a counterfactual to estimate their effect. The results indicate that the actual intervention and the MPS release were ineffective in moving the NZD. However, the speech depreciated the NZD by 1.12%, although the effect was small and short lived. Our findings suggest that FX interventions, explicit or implicit, are a weak policy tool to affect the exchange rate in New Zealand.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"289 - 309"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871063","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46026188","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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