首页 > 最新文献

New Zealand Economic Papers最新文献

英文 中文
Immediate employment and income impacts of Covid-19 in New Zealand: evidence from a survey conducted during the Alert Level 4 lockdown Covid-19对新西兰就业和收入的直接影响:来自警戒4级封锁期间进行的一项调查的证据
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-17 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537
Michael Fletcher, Kate C Prickett, S. Chapple
The Covid-19 Level 4 lockdown represented an unprecedented and sudden shock to the New Zealand labour market. Using unique data collected during lockdown (n = 2002), this study examined the work circumstances of individuals and the economic shock in terms of income and job loss to both individuals and households. We found that the unemployment effectively doubled rising from 5.2% just prior to lockdown to 10.5% by week 3 of lockdown. Close to 44% of individuals lived in a household where members experienced job and/or income loss. While economic loss was widespread, some groups were harder hit, particularly those with lower incomes.
新冠肺炎4级封锁对新西兰劳动力市场造成了前所未有的突然冲击。利用在封锁期间收集的独特数据(2002年),本研究从个人和家庭的收入和失业方面考察了个人的工作环境和经济冲击。我们发现,失业率实际上翻了一番,从封锁前的5.2%上升到封锁第三周的10.5%。近44%的个人生活在一个成员失去工作和/或收入的家庭。虽然经济损失普遍存在,但一些群体受到的打击更大,尤其是那些收入较低的群体。
{"title":"Immediate employment and income impacts of Covid-19 in New Zealand: evidence from a survey conducted during the Alert Level 4 lockdown","authors":"Michael Fletcher, Kate C Prickett, S. Chapple","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 Level 4 lockdown represented an unprecedented and sudden shock to the New Zealand labour market. Using unique data collected during lockdown (n = 2002), this study examined the work circumstances of individuals and the economic shock in terms of income and job loss to both individuals and households. We found that the unemployment effectively doubled rising from 5.2% just prior to lockdown to 10.5% by week 3 of lockdown. Close to 44% of individuals lived in a household where members experienced job and/or income loss. While economic loss was widespread, some groups were harder hit, particularly those with lower incomes.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"73 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870537","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44838537","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Work circumstances, job loss, and wellbeing during New Zealand’s Covid-19 Alert Level 4 lockdown 新西兰新冠肺炎警戒4级封锁期间的工作环境、失业和健康状况
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-12 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064
H. Habibi, Kate C Prickett, Michael Fletcher, S. Chapple
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way work is conducted resulted in widespread unemployment – both of which may have consequences for workers’ wellbeing. Using unique data collected during New Zealand’s Alert Level 4 lockdown, this paper examines differences in affective wellbeing among surveyed workers (n = 1,238) who lost jobs due to the lockdown and those who remained employed. We found that those who lost jobs, compared to those who remained employed, experienced poorer wellbeing. Essential workers also experienced more stress and worry than other workers. The findings can inform policy aimed at buffering workers from the negative consequence of pandemic-related restrictions.
新冠肺炎大流行改变了工作方式,导致普遍失业,这两种情况都可能对工人的福祉产生影响。本文使用在新西兰警戒4级封锁期间收集的独特数据,研究了因封锁而失业的被调查工人(n = 1238)和仍有工作的被调查工人(n = 1238)在情感幸福感方面的差异。我们发现,那些失业的人,与那些有工作的人相比,幸福感更差。核心员工也比其他员工承受更多的压力和担忧。研究结果可以为旨在缓解工人受到与大流行相关的限制的负面影响的政策提供信息。
{"title":"Work circumstances, job loss, and wellbeing during New Zealand’s Covid-19 Alert Level 4 lockdown","authors":"H. Habibi, Kate C Prickett, Michael Fletcher, S. Chapple","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","url":null,"abstract":"The Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way work is conducted resulted in widespread unemployment – both of which may have consequences for workers’ wellbeing. Using unique data collected during New Zealand’s Alert Level 4 lockdown, this paper examines differences in affective wellbeing among surveyed workers (n = 1,238) who lost jobs due to the lockdown and those who remained employed. We found that those who lost jobs, compared to those who remained employed, experienced poorer wellbeing. Essential workers also experienced more stress and worry than other workers. The findings can inform policy aimed at buffering workers from the negative consequence of pandemic-related restrictions.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"310 - 318"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1871064","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41982457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A social cost–benefit framework for COVID-19 policy decisions 新冠肺炎政策决策的社会成本效益框架
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-12 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538
D. Heatley
Important public sector decisions should be informed by cost–benefit analysis (CBA), according to the New Zealand Treasury. This paper explores whether policy decisions about COVID-19 responses are tractable and amenable to ex ante CBA. It does so with a worked example: a CBA of the decision to extend alert level 4 restrictions by a further 5 days on 20 April 2020, using the information that was known at the time. The paper concludes that such analysis is both tractable and a worthwhile input into COVID-19 decision making.
新西兰财政部表示,重要的公共部门决策应以成本效益分析(CBA)为依据。本文探讨了应对COVID-19的政策决策是否易于处理,是否符合CBA。它通过一个可行的例子来说明这一点:CBA使用当时已知的信息,决定在2020年4月20日将警戒级别4的限制再延长5天。本文的结论是,这种分析既易于处理,又为COVID-19决策提供了有价值的投入。
{"title":"A social cost–benefit framework for COVID-19 policy decisions","authors":"D. Heatley","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","url":null,"abstract":"Important public sector decisions should be informed by cost–benefit analysis (CBA), according to the New Zealand Treasury. This paper explores whether policy decisions about COVID-19 responses are tractable and amenable to ex ante CBA. It does so with a worked example: a CBA of the decision to extend alert level 4 restrictions by a further 5 days on 20 April 2020, using the information that was known at the time. The paper concludes that such analysis is both tractable and a worthwhile input into COVID-19 decision making.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"41 - 48"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870538","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43638267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
The impact of COVID-19 on changes in community mobility and variation in transport modes COVID-19对社区流动性变化和交通方式变化的影响
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-12 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536
Le Wen, M. Sheng, B. Sharp
ABSTRACT Using Google mobility data and Apple maps data we track changes in community mobility and transport modes during the COVID-19 Alert levels. Results show that Alert Level 4 – lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction in mobility and variation in transport mode. Mobility and transport mode progressively returned to pre-Alert Level 4 patterns with the exception of public transport. Regional heterogeneity in the variation of public transport use was evident in the data. Containment measures also had a significant negative effect on retail and recreation. Otago had a significantly delayed recovery in retail and recreation relative to other regions.
利用谷歌移动数据和Apple地图数据,我们跟踪了COVID-19警报级别期间社区移动和交通方式的变化。结果表明,警戒4级封锁对减少流动性和运输方式变化有显著影响。除公共交通外,交通和运输方式逐渐恢复到警戒前的4级模式。公共交通使用变化的区域异质性在数据中很明显。遏制措施也对零售和娱乐产生了重大负面影响。相对于其他地区,奥塔哥在零售和娱乐方面的复苏明显滞后。
{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on changes in community mobility and variation in transport modes","authors":"Le Wen, M. Sheng, B. Sharp","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Using Google mobility data and Apple maps data we track changes in community mobility and transport modes during the COVID-19 Alert levels. Results show that Alert Level 4 – lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction in mobility and variation in transport mode. Mobility and transport mode progressively returned to pre-Alert Level 4 patterns with the exception of public transport. Regional heterogeneity in the variation of public transport use was evident in the data. Containment measures also had a significant negative effect on retail and recreation. Otago had a significantly delayed recovery in retail and recreation relative to other regions.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"98 - 105"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870536","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46314603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 19
The COVID-19 experience in the Fiji Islands: some lessons for crisis management for small island developing states of the Pacific region and beyond 斐济群岛的2019冠状病毒病经验:太平洋地区及其他地区小岛屿发展中国家危机管理的一些教训
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-06 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534
Rup Singh, Sumeet Lal, Mohsin Khan, Arvind Patel, Ronal Chand, D. K. Jain
The COVID19 global pandemic has seriously disturbed Fiji, its people and the economy. Consequently, crisis management has been highly challenging in this small and vulnerable economy. Although the number of positive cases was low, the economic impact of COVID19 has been significant. In this paper, we identify several crisis management issues to better deal with the pandemic. These discussions can potentially improve Fiji’s response strategies and initiatives to safeguard public health and economic activity. Our evaluation indicates room for learning and innovation in Fiji’s health care services to ensure resilience and effective response mechanisms. The suggestions are not only useful for Fiji but also for other similar economies in the region. These suggestive strategies can work as proactive measures to combat second wave impact yet to come.
新冠肺炎疫情严重扰乱了斐济及其人民和经济。因此,在这个小而脆弱的经济体中,危机管理极具挑战性。尽管阳性病例数量较低,但新冠肺炎19对经济的影响是显著的。在本文中,我们确定了几个危机管理问题,以更好地应对疫情。这些讨论有可能改善斐济的应对战略和举措,以保障公共卫生和经济活动。我们的评估表明,斐济的医疗保健服务有学习和创新的空间,以确保恢复力和有效的应对机制。这些建议不仅对斐济有用,对该地区其他类似经济体也有用。这些具有启发性的策略可以作为积极主动的措施来对抗尚未到来的第二波影响。
{"title":"The COVID-19 experience in the Fiji Islands: some lessons for crisis management for small island developing states of the Pacific region and beyond","authors":"Rup Singh, Sumeet Lal, Mohsin Khan, Arvind Patel, Ronal Chand, D. K. Jain","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID19 global pandemic has seriously disturbed Fiji, its people and the economy. Consequently, crisis management has been highly challenging in this small and vulnerable economy. Although the number of positive cases was low, the economic impact of COVID19 has been significant. In this paper, we identify several crisis management issues to better deal with the pandemic. These discussions can potentially improve Fiji’s response strategies and initiatives to safeguard public health and economic activity. Our evaluation indicates room for learning and innovation in Fiji’s health care services to ensure resilience and effective response mechanisms. The suggestions are not only useful for Fiji but also for other similar economies in the region. These suggestive strategies can work as proactive measures to combat second wave impact yet to come.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"67 - 72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1870534","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44938670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
House prices and affordability 房价和可负担性
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328
Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, P. Phillips
The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, 2011, 2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, 2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase of approximately 16% set against an increase in average household income of only 4.4% for the year through to June 2019 (Statistics New Zealand, 2020). Increases over the last decade of a similar or even larger magnitude have occurred in the cities of Tauranga, Hamilton, Napier, Wellington and Dunedin. A study by the authors (Greenaway-McGrevy & Phillips, 2016) analysed data for the main metropolitan centres over 2005–2016, finding strong evidence of repeated episodes of house price exuberance coupled with clear indications of spill-over effects among New Zealand cities. In response to these developments in the New Zealand housing market, an array of policy tools has been marshalled by the government and central bank designed to curb house price inflation. The measures have acted on both housing supply and demand but broadly have met with very limited success, as evidenced by the raw data in Figures 1 and 2. Empirical results from recursive econometric tests for speculative exuberance in theAuckland andWellingtonmarkets are shown in Figure 3. These recursive tests use the methods of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a, 2015b) for detection and real-time dating of asset price bubbles, and indicate the presence of real estate bubble episodes in bothAuckland andWellington housingmarkets over the two periods 2004–2006 and 2015–2016.Moreover, the latest data for Auckland and Wellington suggest a renewal of explosive behaviour in these two real estate markets in the final quarter of 2020, confirming widespread anecdotal and media evidence in late 2020 of intensive demand pressure and resulting FOMO1 in real estate activity in New Zealand. In response to these recurrent developments over the last two decades, central government has recent sought to restrain housing demand by reducing foreign investment (through the Overseas Investment Bill) and by restricting investor speculation (through the Taxation (Bright Lines Test for Residential Land) Bill).2 In addition, macro-prudential policies by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have sought to restrict access to credit through maximum load-to-value ratios (LVRs) that serve to cool down housing demand (Armstrong, Skilling, & Yao, 2019). These policies contributed to stabilizing house price appreciation for a few years after 2016, as evidenced in Figure 1. But the
在全球金融危机之后的十年里,许多发达国家的城市见证了房价的疯狂上涨。新西兰的大都市中心体现了这一现象,房价涨幅持续超过收入增长。在奥克兰,现行房价中位数与家庭收入中位数之比从2010年的6.4上升到2016年的10.0 (Demographia, 2011年,2017年),然后到2019年下降到8.6,因为房价持平,而家庭收入增加(Demographia, 2020年)。然而,2020年房价的强劲反弹意味着这一比例已恢复上升轨迹,截至2019年6月,这一比例增长了约16%,而平均家庭收入仅增长了4.4%(新西兰统计局,2020年)。在过去十年中,陶朗加、汉密尔顿、纳皮尔、惠灵顿和达尼丁等城市的房价都出现了类似甚至更大的涨幅。作者(Greenaway-McGrevy & Phillips, 2016)的一项研究分析了2005-2016年主要大都市中心的数据,发现了房价反复上涨的有力证据,以及新西兰城市之间溢出效应的明确迹象。为了应对新西兰房地产市场的这些发展,政府和央行已经制定了一系列政策工具,旨在遏制房价上涨。这些措施对住房供应和需求都起了作用,但总体上收效甚微,如图1和图2中的原始数据所示。图3显示了奥克兰和惠灵顿市场投机繁荣的递归计量经济学检验的实证结果。这些递归检验使用Phillips、Shi和Yu (2015a, 2015b)的方法来检测和实时确定资产价格泡沫,并表明在2004-2006年和2015-2016年两个时期,奥克兰和惠灵顿住房市场都存在房地产泡沫事件。此外,奥克兰和惠灵顿的最新数据表明,2020年最后一个季度,这两个房地产市场的爆炸性行为将再次出现,这证实了2020年底普遍存在的轶事和媒体证据,即强烈的需求压力,并导致新西兰房地产活动出现FOMO1。为了应对过去二十年来这些经常性的发展,中央政府最近试图通过减少外国投资(通过海外投资法案)和限制投资者投机(通过税收(住宅用地明线测试)法案)来抑制住房需求此外,新西兰储备银行的宏观审慎政策试图通过最大负荷价值比(LVRs)来限制获得信贷的机会,这有助于冷却住房需求(Armstrong, Skilling, & Yao, 2019)。如图1所示,这些政策有助于在2016年之后的几年里稳定房价升值。但这些降温措施并没有导致房价明显下降,也没有改善以房价收入比中位数衡量的可负担性。2020年的最新数据表明,猖獗的房价通胀再次抬头,这进一步加剧了人们的负担能力。
{"title":"House prices and affordability","authors":"Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy, P. Phillips","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","url":null,"abstract":"The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, 2011, 2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, 2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase of approximately 16% set against an increase in average household income of only 4.4% for the year through to June 2019 (Statistics New Zealand, 2020). Increases over the last decade of a similar or even larger magnitude have occurred in the cities of Tauranga, Hamilton, Napier, Wellington and Dunedin. A study by the authors (Greenaway-McGrevy & Phillips, 2016) analysed data for the main metropolitan centres over 2005–2016, finding strong evidence of repeated episodes of house price exuberance coupled with clear indications of spill-over effects among New Zealand cities. In response to these developments in the New Zealand housing market, an array of policy tools has been marshalled by the government and central bank designed to curb house price inflation. The measures have acted on both housing supply and demand but broadly have met with very limited success, as evidenced by the raw data in Figures 1 and 2. Empirical results from recursive econometric tests for speculative exuberance in theAuckland andWellingtonmarkets are shown in Figure 3. These recursive tests use the methods of Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a, 2015b) for detection and real-time dating of asset price bubbles, and indicate the presence of real estate bubble episodes in bothAuckland andWellington housingmarkets over the two periods 2004–2006 and 2015–2016.Moreover, the latest data for Auckland and Wellington suggest a renewal of explosive behaviour in these two real estate markets in the final quarter of 2020, confirming widespread anecdotal and media evidence in late 2020 of intensive demand pressure and resulting FOMO1 in real estate activity in New Zealand. In response to these recurrent developments over the last two decades, central government has recent sought to restrain housing demand by reducing foreign investment (through the Overseas Investment Bill) and by restricting investor speculation (through the Taxation (Bright Lines Test for Residential Land) Bill).2 In addition, macro-prudential policies by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have sought to restrict access to credit through maximum load-to-value ratios (LVRs) that serve to cool down housing demand (Armstrong, Skilling, & Yao, 2019). These policies contributed to stabilizing house price appreciation for a few years after 2016, as evidenced in Figure 1. But the","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"1 - 6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2021.1878328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48810866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7
The causes and economic consequences of rising regional housing prices in New Zealand 新西兰地区房价上涨的原因和经济后果
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939
P. Nunns
This paper explores the causes and economic consequences of recent increases and divergences in regional house prices in New Zealand. It identifies large and increasing ‘wedges’ between house prices and underlying supply costs. These house price distortions arise from the collision of rising demand for housing with housing supply constraints, including zoning rules that limit new subdivision and redevelopment of existing sites. Regions with larger starting price distortions appear to have experienced larger increases in house prices and rents in response to migration shocks. This results in large economic costs due to misallocation of labour away from high-productivity regions in New Zealand and increased net migration to Australia. A calibrated spatial equilibrium model is used to investigate what would have happened if house price distortions had increased at a slower rate in recent decades due to relaxation of supply constraints. This model implies that comprehensively removing constraints to housing supply would have increased New Zealand’s total economic output by up to 8.4%, increased per-worker output by 0.9%, and eliminated recent net migration outflows to Australia. More plausible counterfactual scenarios would result in smaller, but still economically meaningful, gains on the order of one to five percent of gross domestic product.
本文探讨了新西兰地区房价近期上涨和分化的原因和经济后果。它确定了房价和潜在供应成本之间的巨大且不断增加的“楔子”。这些房价扭曲源于不断增长的住房需求与住房供应限制的冲突,包括限制对现有场地进行新的细分和重新开发的分区规则。起始价格扭曲较大的地区似乎经历了更大的房价和租金上涨,以应对移民冲击。这导致了巨大的经济成本,原因是新西兰高生产力地区的劳动力分配不当,以及向澳大利亚的净移民增加。使用校准的空间均衡模型来研究如果近几十年来由于供应限制的放松,房价扭曲以较慢的速度增加,会发生什么。该模型意味着,全面消除住房供应限制将使新西兰的总经济产出增加8.4%,人均产出增加0.9%,并消除最近向澳大利亚的净移民外流。更合理的反事实情景将导致较小但仍具有经济意义的收益,约占国内生产总值的1%至5%。
{"title":"The causes and economic consequences of rising regional housing prices in New Zealand","authors":"P. Nunns","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the causes and economic consequences of recent increases and divergences in regional house prices in New Zealand. It identifies large and increasing ‘wedges’ between house prices and underlying supply costs. These house price distortions arise from the collision of rising demand for housing with housing supply constraints, including zoning rules that limit new subdivision and redevelopment of existing sites. Regions with larger starting price distortions appear to have experienced larger increases in house prices and rents in response to migration shocks. This results in large economic costs due to misallocation of labour away from high-productivity regions in New Zealand and increased net migration to Australia. A calibrated spatial equilibrium model is used to investigate what would have happened if house price distortions had increased at a slower rate in recent decades due to relaxation of supply constraints. This model implies that comprehensively removing constraints to housing supply would have increased New Zealand’s total economic output by up to 8.4%, increased per-worker output by 0.9%, and eliminated recent net migration outflows to Australia. More plausible counterfactual scenarios would result in smaller, but still economically meaningful, gains on the order of one to five percent of gross domestic product.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"55 1","pages":"66 - 104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1791939","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41764469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Hard, not early: putting the New Zealand Covid-19 response in context 艰难而不早:将新西兰Covid-19应对措施置于背景中
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-25 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796
J. Gibson
A popular narrative that New Zealand’s policy response to Coronavirus was ‘go hard, go early’ is misleading. While restrictions were the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown in March and April, these were imposed after the likely peak in new infections. I use the time path of Covid-19 deaths for each OECD country to estimate inflection points. Allowing for the typical lag from infection to death, new infections peaked before the most stringent policy responses were applied in many countries, including New Zealand. The cross-country evidence shows that restrictions imposed after the inflection point in infections is reached are ineffective in reducing total deaths. Even restrictions imposed earlier have just a modest effect; if Sweden’s more relaxed restrictions had been used, an extra 310 Covid-19 deaths are predicted for New Zealand – far fewer than the thousands of deaths in some widely reported mathematical simulations.
一种流行的说法是,新西兰对冠状病毒的政策反应是“努力,尽早”,这是一种误导。虽然在3月和4月的4级封锁期间,限制措施是世界上最严格的,但这些措施是在新感染病例可能达到峰值后实施的。我使用每个经合组织国家新冠肺炎死亡人数的时间路径来估计拐点。考虑到从感染到死亡的典型滞后,在包括新西兰在内的许多国家采取最严格的政策应对措施之前,新感染病例就达到了峰值。跨国证据表明,在感染达到拐点后实施的限制措施对减少总死亡人数无效。即使是早些时候实施的限制也只是适度的效果;如果采用瑞典更宽松的限制措施,预计新西兰将新增310例新冠肺炎死亡病例,远低于一些广泛报道的数学模拟中的数千例死亡病例。
{"title":"Hard, not early: putting the New Zealand Covid-19 response in context","authors":"J. Gibson","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","url":null,"abstract":"A popular narrative that New Zealand’s policy response to Coronavirus was ‘go hard, go early’ is misleading. While restrictions were the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown in March and April, these were imposed after the likely peak in new infections. I use the time path of Covid-19 deaths for each OECD country to estimate inflection points. Allowing for the typical lag from infection to death, new infections peaked before the most stringent policy responses were applied in many countries, including New Zealand. The cross-country evidence shows that restrictions imposed after the inflection point in infections is reached are ineffective in reducing total deaths. Even restrictions imposed earlier have just a modest effect; if Sweden’s more relaxed restrictions had been used, an extra 310 Covid-19 deaths are predicted for New Zealand – far fewer than the thousands of deaths in some widely reported mathematical simulations.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"1 - 8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1842796","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48847695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response 政府强制封锁并不能减少Covid-19死亡人数:对评估新西兰严格应对措施的影响
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-20 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786
John Gibson
The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown. Up to 10 billion dollars of output (≈3.3% of GDP) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2, according to Treasury calculations. For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss. Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals, due to poor identification. Instead, I use empirical data, based on variation amongst United States counties, over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown. Political drivers of lockdown provide identification. Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths. This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand. The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.
在4级封锁期间,新西兰对冠状病毒的政策反应是世界上最严格的。根据财政部的计算,高达100亿美元的产出(≈GDP的3.3%)在进入第四级而不是停留在第二级时损失了。要使封锁达到最佳状态,需要大量的健康益处来抵消这种产出损失。由于识别能力差,流行病学模型预测的死亡人数不是有效的反事实。相反,我使用了基于美国各县差异的实证数据,其中超过五分之一的县只是保持社交距离而不是封锁。封锁的政治驱动因素提供了身份证明。封锁并不能减少新冠肺炎死亡人数。这种模式在新西兰做出关键封锁决定的每一天都很明显。封锁的明显无效表明,新西兰付出了巨大的经济代价,但在挽救生命方面却收效甚微。
{"title":"Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response","authors":"John Gibson","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","url":null,"abstract":"The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown. Up to 10 billion dollars of output (≈3.3% of GDP) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2, according to Treasury calculations. For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss. Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals, due to poor identification. Instead, I use empirical data, based on variation amongst United States counties, over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown. Political drivers of lockdown provide identification. Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths. This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand. The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"17 - 28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44134909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
Tourism sector in New Zealand – demand-side measures are necessary 新西兰旅游业对需求方的措施是必要的
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787
M. Grančay
The paper argues that to support its tourism industry New Zealand must move beyond the current supply-side measures and take action to stimulate demand. In the absence of international guests, tourism recovery has to focus on domestic travel. We suggest a system of holiday vouchers is introduced – a concept which has been adopted by numerous countries in Europe already.
该报告认为,为了支持其旅游业,新西兰必须超越目前的供应方措施,采取行动刺激需求。在没有国际游客的情况下,旅游业的复苏必须以国内旅游为重点。我们建议引进一种度假券制度,这一概念已被许多欧洲国家采用。
{"title":"Tourism sector in New Zealand – demand-side measures are necessary","authors":"M. Grančay","doi":"10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","url":null,"abstract":"The paper argues that to support its tourism industry New Zealand must move beyond the current supply-side measures and take action to stimulate demand. In the absence of international guests, tourism recovery has to focus on domestic travel. We suggest a system of holiday vouchers is introduced – a concept which has been adopted by numerous countries in Europe already.","PeriodicalId":38921,"journal":{"name":"New Zealand Economic Papers","volume":"56 1","pages":"114 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844787","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42684919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
期刊
New Zealand Economic Papers
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1