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Russia’s Non-Competitive Election 俄罗斯的非竞争性选举
Pub Date : 2012-03-07 DOI: 10.7916/D8FN1GD5
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The Russian election occurred on Sunday with results that were consistent with what most people expected. Vladimir Putin won the election handily among widespread reports of election fraud, inflated vote totals from the northern Caucasus region of Russia, and general electoral misconduct. Putin, according to official reports, won roughly 63% of the vote, which was a higher proportion of the vote than some had anticipated, but his huge margin of victory, a full 45 points more than second place finisher Gennady Zyuganov, was less of a surprise.
周日举行的俄罗斯大选结果与大多数人的预期一致。在有关选举舞弊、俄罗斯北高加索地区虚高选票总数以及选举不当行为的广泛报道中,普京轻松赢得了选举。根据官方报道,普京赢得了大约63%的选票,这比一些人预期的要高,但他的巨大胜利,比第二名的根纳季·久加诺夫高出整整45个百分点,并不令人意外。
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引用次数: 0
Intervention and Non-Intervention in Syria 干预与不干预叙利亚
Pub Date : 2012-02-24 DOI: 10.7916/D8TX3QK7
Lincoln A. Mitchell
As the brutal suppression of opponents of Bashar al-Assad by supporters of his regime in Syria continues, the U.S. and other western powers are faced, yet again, with the question of whether or not to intervene in a violent North African conflict that, absent western intervention, could lead to even more violent deaths and suppression. The similarities between the dilemma facing the U.S. in Syria in 2012 and the one it faced roughly a year ago in Libya is, while not the same, quite similar, at least in some respects.
随着巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权的支持者在叙利亚继续残酷镇压其反对者,美国和其他西方大国再次面临是否干预北非暴力冲突的问题,如果没有西方的干预,这场冲突可能会导致更多的暴力死亡和镇压。美国2012年在叙利亚面临的困境与大约一年前在利比亚面临的困境虽然不尽相同,但至少在某些方面非常相似。
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引用次数: 1
Putin’s Diminishing Options 普京的选择越来越少
Pub Date : 2012-02-14 DOI: 10.7916/D8ZP4GBD
Lincoln A. Mitchell
With the March 4th election rapidly approaching in Russia, it is becoming increasingly clear that Prime Minister, and presidential candidate, Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner from which it will be difficult to extricate himself. Moreover, the possibility of using violence to crackdown on demonstrators, or to keep his regime in power, will likely grow over the next months, particularly after the election.
随着3月4日俄罗斯大选的迅速临近,越来越明显的是,总理兼总统候选人弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)已经把自己逼到了一个难以自拔的角落。此外,在接下来的几个月里,特别是在选举之后,使用暴力镇压示威者或维持其政权的可能性可能会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Iran, Syria and Egypt 伊朗,叙利亚和埃及
Pub Date : 2012-02-08 DOI: 10.7916/D83F4ZVR
Lincoln A. Mitchell
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引用次数: 0
The 2012 Election and U.S. Democracy 2012年大选与美国民主
Pub Date : 2012-01-26 DOI: 10.7916/D8GM8HHJ
Lincoln A. Mitchell
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引用次数: 0
Does Mitt Romney Really Think Europe is the Enemy 米特·罗姆尼真的认为欧洲是敌人吗
Pub Date : 2012-01-13 DOI: 10.7916/D8MC9878
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Mitt Romney is close enough to the Republican nomination for president, and in fact the presidency itself, that his comments can no longer be entirely discounted because he is in the middle of a campaign. For this reason, his speech following his win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday raises some serious questions and provides some insight into the problems with his, and his parties view of the world and foreign relations. Towards the beginning of his speech, Romney said “He (President Obama) chastises friends like Israel; I’ll stand with our friends.” This is standard campaign rhetoric based on the conservative criticism of Obama’s Israel policy.
米特·罗姆尼已经足够接近共和党总统候选人提名,实际上是总统职位本身,他的言论不能再因为他正在竞选而被完全忽视。因此,他在星期二赢得新罕布什尔州初选后发表的演讲提出了一些严肃的问题,并对他本人以及他的政党在世界和外交关系方面的观点提出了一些见解。罗姆尼在演讲开始时说:“他(奥巴马总统)谴责以色列这样的朋友;我会和我们的朋友站在一起。”这是基于保守派对奥巴马以色列政策的批评的标准竞选言辞。
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引用次数: 0
Something Is Happening and You Don’t Know What It Is. Do You, Mr. Putin? 有些事情正在发生,而你不知道是什么。你呢,普京先生?
Pub Date : 2011-12-15 DOI: 10.7916/D8C53W1H
Lincoln A. Mitchell
It is obviously too early to know what the result of the demonstrations in Russia following the fraudulent election will be, but it is late enough to know that something significant is happening there. It is possible that these protests will be violently dispersed, that they will lead to some liberalization of the regime, set processes in motion that will lead to the collapse of the regime or simply whither away as Moscow’s harsh winter settles in. Even if the protests lose their momentum or end violently, they will have marked a change in the way Putin’s regime in Russia functions. The sheen not just of invulnerability, but also of being efficient and insulated from all criticism, has been removed; and the world has seen that.
显然,要知道俄罗斯在选举舞弊之后的示威活动将会产生什么结果还为时过早,但要知道那里正在发生一些重要的事情,现在已经足够晚了。这些抗议活动可能会被暴力驱散,可能会导致政权的某种程度上的自由化,启动导致政权崩溃的进程,或者随着莫斯科严冬的到来而消失。即使抗议活动失去势头或以暴力收场,它们也标志着普京政权在俄罗斯的运作方式发生了变化。不仅是刀枪不入,而且是高效和不受任何批评的光泽已经消失;世界已经看到了这一点。
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引用次数: 0
In Egypt, Don’t Blame the Elections 在埃及,不要指责选举
Pub Date : 2011-12-03 DOI: 10.7916/D8MP5CG7
Lincoln A. Mitchell
In the recently concluded Egyptian elections Islamists combined for roughly 60% of the vote. Although this is the beginning of a reasonably complex process to form the lower house of the Egyptian parliament, this outcome suggests that Islamist parties will be well represented in that legislative body. Accordingly, it is likely that the post-Arab Spring Egypt may adapt a foreign policy to the west and to Israel that differs sharply from that of Hosni Mubarak’s Egypt. Moreover, it is all but inevitable that the legislature will adapt laws and policies that are illiberal and will not sit comfortably with western democrats.
在最近结束的埃及选举中,伊斯兰主义者总共获得了大约60%的选票。尽管这是组建埃及议会下院的一个相当复杂的过程的开始,但这一结果表明,伊斯兰政党将在这个立法机构中得到充分的代表。因此,“阿拉伯之春”后的埃及很可能会对西方和以色列采取与胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)领导下的埃及截然不同的外交政策。此外,立法机构几乎不可避免地会调整一些不开明、与西方民主人士格格不入的法律和政策。
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引用次数: 0
Occupy Wall Street and American Soft Power 占领华尔街与美国软实力
Pub Date : 2011-11-25 DOI: 10.7916/D8RF647D
Lincoln A. Mitchell
One of the most potent and devastating responses of assertions of American soft power is the accusation of American hypocrisy. This charge is so widespread that it has become axiomatic to both many on the American left as well as those seeking to resist American influence, even when it is benign or even positive, abroad. In general, this is a result of the uneven application of support for ideals such as freedom and democracy, the frequent prioritization of short term security and economic needs over these ideals or the inability of the U.S. to live up to its own lofty rhetoric.
对于美国软实力的断言,最有力、最具破坏性的回应之一是指责美国虚伪。这种指责是如此普遍,以至于对于许多美国左翼人士和那些试图抵制美国影响的人来说,这已经成为不言自明的事实,即使美国在国外的影响是良性的,甚至是积极的。总的来说,这是由于对自由和民主等理想的支持不均衡,短期安全和经济需求经常优先于这些理想,或者美国无法实现自己的崇高言论。
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引用次数: 0
Democracy and Military Bases in Kyrgyzstan 吉尔吉斯斯坦的民主和军事基地
Pub Date : 2011-11-09 DOI: 10.7916/D80Z7CG5
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Within days of winning the election with 63 percent of the vote beating his closest rival, Adukhan Madumarov, by a margin of more than four to one, Atanbaev announced that he would soon begin to phase out the U.S. use of the air force base at Manas. This base, located only a few kilometers from downtown Bishkek plays a central role in bringing supplies and troops to Afghanistan. Indeed, it is hard to imagine how the U.S. effort in Afghanistan could succeed, or even continue, without access to the Manas base.
阿坦巴耶夫以63%的选票以超过四比一的优势击败了最接近他的对手阿杜汗·马杜马罗夫(Adukhan Madumarov),在赢得选举的几天后,他宣布他将很快开始逐步停止美国对马纳斯空军基地的使用。这个基地距离比什凯克市中心只有几公里,在向阿富汗运送物资和部队方面发挥着核心作用。事实上,很难想象如果没有玛纳斯基地,美国在阿富汗的努力将如何取得成功,甚至继续下去。
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引用次数: 0
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