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Will Obama Really Get Us out of Afghanistan in 2011 奥巴马真的能在2011年让我们从阿富汗撤军吗
Pub Date : 2009-12-09 DOI: 10.7916/D8ST8065
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The Obama administration began qualifying the President’s proposed timeline for beginning the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan almost immediately after his speech last week. Administration officials such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates have since then made it clear that the July 2011 date for beginning the drawdown is only a target. A closer reading of Obama’s speech suggests that Obama did not really commit to a withdrawal date, only to a date to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan.” This could mean anything because the extent and speed of the withdrawal remains unspecified.
奥巴马政府在奥巴马总统上周发表讲话后,几乎立即开始确认总统提出的开始从阿富汗撤军的时间表。国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和国防部长鲍勃·盖茨(Bob Gates)等政府官员此后明确表示,2011年7月开始撤军的日期只是一个目标。仔细阅读奥巴马的演讲就会发现,奥巴马并没有真正承诺撤军日期,只是承诺开始从阿富汗撤军的日期。”这可能意味着任何事情,因为撤军的范围和速度仍未确定。
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引用次数: 0
Obama's Unconvincing Argument That Afghanistan Is Not Vietnam 奥巴马关于阿富汗不是越南的不令人信服的论点
Pub Date : 2009-12-03 DOI: 10.7916/D8FJ2S53
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Comparisons between the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam have grown stronger in recent weeks. While this concern has been raised, often with the buzzword quagmire, about every conflict since the end of the U.S. effort in Vietnam, it is not without reason that this is mentioned with regards to Afghanistan. It is hard to ignore the similarities between the two conflicts. In both cases, the U.S. got involved in a war far away for which there was no easily foreseeable resolution. Obama, like another Democratic president more than four decades ago, was convinced, to some extent by his own generals, that more troops would make the difference and drew the U.S. further into the conflict. The Vietnam War destroyed Johnson’s presidency and overshadowed some of his impressive accomplishments on domestic issues. Critics of the war in Afghanistan, many of whom are supporters of the current president, do not want to see the same thing happen to Obama.
最近几周,阿富汗战争和越南战争之间的比较越来越激烈。自从美国结束在越南的军事行动以来,这种担忧一直伴随着“泥潭”这个流行词被提出来,而在阿富汗战争中,这种担忧也不无道理。很难忽视这两场冲突之间的相似之处。在这两种情况下,美国都卷入了一场遥远的战争,而且没有容易预见的解决方案。和四十多年前的另一位民主党总统一样,奥巴马在一定程度上被他自己的将军们说服,更多的军队会产生影响,并将美国进一步卷入冲突。越南战争摧毁了约翰逊的总统任期,并使他在国内问题上取得的一些令人印象深刻的成就黯然失色。阿富汗战争的批评者中有许多人是现任总统的支持者,他们不希望看到同样的事情发生在奥巴马身上。
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引用次数: 0
Is Obama About to Make a Disastrous Mistake 奥巴马即将犯下灾难性错误
Pub Date : 2009-11-27 DOI: 10.7916/D8Q248NK
Lincoln A. Mitchell
President Obama’s decision about Afghanistan will likely be one of the most important ones he makes during his presidency and will almost certainly set the tone and the agenda for the rest of his time in office. The President has taken a long time on this decision. While it is possible that he simply cannot make up his mind, it is also possible that he is using this time to put all the pieces in place to support his decision. Whatever the president decides, whether it is withdrawal, adding 30,000-40,000 more troops or something in between, there will be a lot of political and logistical work that needs to be done. Doing this work, which, if Obama decides to send more troops, includes issues of moving soldiers and material to Afghanistan, determining what countries can be flown over and what cannot and what commitments can be expected by allies and other countries in the region, takes time and is better done in advance rather than once the decision is made and the policy is moving forward.
奥巴马总统关于阿富汗的决定很可能是他在总统任期内做出的最重要的决定之一,几乎肯定会为他余下的任期定下基调和议程。总统在这个决定上花了很长时间。虽然有可能他只是无法下定决心,但也有可能他是在利用这段时间把所有的事情都准备好,以支持他的决定。无论总统做出什么决定,无论是撤军,还是增加3万至4万名士兵,或者介于两者之间,都将有大量的政治和后勤工作需要完成。如果奥巴马决定派遣更多的部队,这项工作包括向阿富汗运送士兵和物资,决定哪些国家可以空运,哪些国家不能空运,以及盟国和该地区其他国家可以做出哪些承诺,这些都需要时间,最好是提前完成,而不是等到做出决定和政策向前推进时再做。
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引用次数: 0
The Two Futures of U.S. China Policy 美国对华政策的两个未来
Pub Date : 2009-11-16 DOI: 10.7916/D8DB8B7H
Lincoln A. Mitchell
While in Asia, President Obama focused quite a bit on the U.S. relationship with China. This was wise and reflects the increasingly obvious reality that the U.S.-China relationship is, and almost certainly will remain for many years, our country’s most important bilateral relationship. Moreover, Obama’s Tokyo speech reflected the need for cooperation between the U.S. and China. “it is important to pursue pragmatic cooperation with China on issues of mutual concern — because no one nation can meet the challenges of the 21st century alone ...That is why we welcome China’s efforts to play a greater role on the world stage — a role in which their growing economy is joined by growing responsibility.” The Chinese and U.S. economies are deeply linked in a relationship that is the trade equivalent of being too big to fail. Similarly, nascent rivalries for influence and power around the world cannot be allowed to grow out of control. All of this occurs in the obvious, if downplayed by the administration, context of China as a country with very little political freedom and a record of widespread human rights abuses.
在亚洲期间,奥巴马总统相当重视美国与中国的关系。这是明智的,反映了一个日益明显的现实,即美中关系现在是,而且几乎肯定将在许多年内继续是我国最重要的双边关系。此外,奥巴马的东京演讲也反映了美中两国合作的必要性。“在共同关心的问题上与中国进行务实合作是很重要的,因为没有一个国家能够单独应对21世纪的挑战……这就是为什么我们欢迎中国在世界舞台上发挥更大作用的努力,在这个作用中,中国不断增长的经济伴随着越来越多的责任。”中美两国经济紧密相连,在贸易上相当于“大到不能倒”。同样,在世界范围内,对影响力和权力的争夺也不能发展到失控的地步。所有这些都发生在一个显而易见的背景下,即中国是一个几乎没有政治自由、有广泛侵犯人权记录的国家。
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引用次数: 0
Twenty Years After the Fall of the Berlin Wall, How We Misremember the Cold War 柏林墙倒塌二十年后,我们是如何误记冷战的
Pub Date : 2009-11-12 DOI: 10.7916/D84T6TRM
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Twenty years ago this week, the Berlin Wall was taken down ending the division of that city and, symbolically, Germany and all of Europe. Within two years of that event, the Soviet Union itself dissolved and the Cold War was over. These events were unimaginable even only a few years before they occurred. As late as the mid-1980s, it was assumed by most policy makers on both sides of the Cold War divide that the Cold War was going to go on for a long time, if not forever. While better relationships between the two sides and a softening of the repressive Communist regimes were viewed as achievable, the end of the Cold War itself, was not.
20年前的本周,柏林墙被推倒,结束了这座城市的分裂,也象征性地结束了德国和整个欧洲的分裂。这一事件发生后不到两年,苏联解体,冷战结束。这些事件在发生前几年还是不可想象的。直到20世纪80年代中期,冷战双方的大多数决策者都认为,冷战即使不会永远持续下去,也会持续很长一段时间。虽然双方关系的改善和共产主义专制政权的软化被认为是可以实现的,但冷战本身的结束却不是。
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引用次数: 0
Woody Allen and America's Declining Power to Persuade 伍迪·艾伦和美国逐渐衰落的说服力
Pub Date : 2009-11-05 DOI: 10.7916/D8BP0C68
Lincoln A. Mitchell
“I forbid you! I forbid you to go! I’m forbidding it! Is that what you do when I forbid you? I’m not going to be forbidding you a lot.” This is not something Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on her recent trip to Pakistan regarding efforts by the Pakistani government to combat terrorism, nor is it something she said to Bibi Netanyahu regarding settlements in the West Bank during her recent trip to Israel, but it might have been.
“我不许你!”我不准你去!我禁止你这么做!我不让你干,你就这么干吗?我不会经常禁止你的。”这不是国务卿希拉里·克林顿在最近访问巴基斯坦时就巴基斯坦政府打击恐怖主义的努力所说的话,也不是她在最近访问以色列期间就约旦河西岸定居点问题对比比·内塔尼亚胡所说的话,但可能是这样的。
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引用次数: 0
Eastern Europe and the Obama Administration 东欧和奥巴马政府
Pub Date : 2009-10-29 DOI: 10.7916/D83B68HQ
Lincoln A. Mitchell
From Tallinn to Tbilisi, one of the most common criticisms of the Obama administration is that the U.S. is abandoning its new allies to Russia, and underestimating the threat Russia poses to these countries. This notion persists in spite of the efforts made by the current administration and Vice President Biden who has become, in the words of Nicholas Kulish, the “reassurer-in-chief,” to restate American support for these countries.
从塔林到第比利斯,对奥巴马政府最常见的批评之一是,美国正在将其新盟友抛弃给俄罗斯,并低估了俄罗斯对这些国家构成的威胁。尽管现任政府和副总统拜登做出了努力,用尼古拉斯·库利什(Nicholas Kulish)的话说,拜登已成为“首席安慰者”,重申美国对这些国家的支持,但这种观念仍然存在。
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引用次数: 0
The Downside to the Runoff in Afghanistan 阿富汗决选的负面影响
Pub Date : 2009-10-23 DOI: 10.7916/D8XK8QX3
Lincoln A. Mitchell
It looks as if President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan has been convinced of the need for a runoff election against Abdullah Abdullah, scheduled for November 7th. Pressure for the runoff grew after the extent of election fraud in the election of August 20th became clear in the weeks following that election. Many observers believed that Karzai did not legitimately get the 50% of the vote necessary to win in the first round.
阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊似乎已经确信有必要在11月7日与阿卜杜拉·阿卜杜拉进行决选。在8月20日选举舞弊的程度在选举后的几周内变得清晰之后,决选的压力增加了。许多观察家认为卡尔扎伊没有合法地获得赢得第一轮所需的50%的选票。
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引用次数: 0
Maybe U.S.-Russian 'Reset' Isn't About Iran 也许美俄“重启”与伊朗无关
Pub Date : 2009-10-15 DOI: 10.7916/D8M61VMG
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Last July, on his way home from a trip to Ukraine and Georgia, Vice-President Joe Biden gave an interview with the Wall Street Journal. The interview, in which Biden described how Russia is weak, and how the U.S. “vastly underestimate(s) the hand that we hold” was widely understood in the U.S. as another gaffe by the gaffe-prone Biden. Biden’s remarks only qualify as a gaffe if we use Mike Kinsley’s definition of a gaffe as when a politician accidentally tells the truth.
去年7月,美国副总统拜登(Joe Biden)在结束对乌克兰和格鲁吉亚的访问回国途中接受了《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)的采访。在这次采访中,拜登描述了俄罗斯是多么的软弱,以及美国是如何“大大低估了我们所握的手”,这在美国被广泛认为是容易失态的拜登的又一次失态。如果我们使用迈克·金斯利(Mike Kinsley)对失态的定义,即政治家不小心说出了真相,拜登的言论才有资格被称为失态。
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引用次数: 0
Changing Course on Missile Defense: Why Refusing to Pick a Fight with Moscow Is Not a Sign of Weakness 改变导弹防御路线:为什么拒绝与莫斯科开战不是软弱的表现
Pub Date : 2009-09-17 DOI: 10.7916/D80C5551
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The missile defense system as initially proposed was presented by the Bush administration as a way to help protect American allies from any threat from Iran’s developing nuclear weapons program. Moscow, however, viewed the proposed deployment as further efforts by the U.S. to humiliate and surround Russia. Inevitably, missile defense became part of the range of disagreements, which also include Georgia and the South Caucasus, the Manas Air Force Base and, probably most importantly, NATO expansion, between the two countries.
布什政府最初提出的导弹防御系统是一种帮助保护美国盟友免受伊朗发展核武器计划威胁的方式。然而,莫斯科认为,拟议中的部署是美国羞辱和包围俄罗斯的进一步努力。不可避免地,导弹防御系统成为两国之间分歧的一部分,其他分歧还包括格鲁吉亚和南高加索、玛纳斯空军基地,以及可能最重要的北约扩张问题。
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