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What Next for the U.S. in Libya 美国在利比亚的下一步是什么
Pub Date : 2011-03-25 DOI: 10.7916/D87P97SQ
Lincoln A. Mitchell
In 2002-3, President George W. Bush wanted to go to war in Iraq in the worst way possible; and that is more or less exactly what he did. Bush led the country to war based upon a very flimsy rationale, without strong international support and with no clear recognition of the extent or nature of the American commitment which would be required to succeed. The result has been that the war, after eight years this month, has been far more difficult than expected, success has been elusive, costs have been exorbitant and American standing in the world has suffered substantially. A central lesson of Bush’s rush to war, which is sufficiently obvious that it may not need restating is that it is much easier to get into conflicts like Iraq, that it is to get out.
2002- 2003年,乔治·w·布什(George W. Bush)总统想以最糟糕的方式对伊拉克开战;这或多或少就是他所做的。布什根据一个非常站不住脚的理由,在没有强有力的国际支持的情况下,在没有明确认识到成功所需要的美国承诺的程度和性质的情况下,领导了这个国家的战争。结果是,这场战争在8年之后的本月,比预期的困难得多,成功难以捉摸,成本过高,美国在世界上的地位也受到了严重损害。布什急于开战的一个核心教训是,进入伊拉克这样的冲突要容易得多,而退出战争要容易得多,这一点已经足够明显,无需赘述。
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引用次数: 0
The Tsunami, the Middle East and the U.S. 海啸,中东和美国
Pub Date : 2011-03-17 DOI: 10.7916/D8RR27NM
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The earthquake and tsunami in Japan is a terrible catastrophe which has killed thousands, injured more and displaced hundreds of thousands. In addition to this devastation, there is also the possible that the nuclear reactors hit by the tsunami could continue to leak dangerous radiation putting millions at risk. Thus efforts to prevent further harm must begin while efforts to find survivors and begin stabilizing the damage are still underway.
日本发生的地震和海啸是一场可怕的灾难,造成数千人死亡,更多人受伤,数十万人流离失所。除了这种破坏之外,被海啸击中的核反应堆也有可能继续泄漏危险的辐射,使数百万人处于危险之中。因此,在寻找幸存者并开始稳定损失的同时,必须开始努力防止进一步的伤害。
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引用次数: 0
The Right Question to Ask About Intervention in Libya 干涉利比亚的正确问题
Pub Date : 2011-03-08 DOI: 10.7916/D8N01GX6
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The case for why the U.S. should intervene seems reasonably straightforward. Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi is a dictator who, during his 40 years in power, has oppressed his own people and supported terrorism. In recent weeks he has behaved erratically and violently, threatening to drag his country into a bloody civil war which could affect the broader region. Based on this behavior, there is a clear and compelling argument to be made as to why the U.S. should intervene.
美国应该干预的理由似乎相当直截了当。利比亚领导人穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲是一个独裁者,在他执政的40年里,他压迫自己的人民,支持恐怖主义。最近几周,他的行为古怪而暴力,威胁要将他的国家拖入一场可能影响更广泛地区的血腥内战。基于这种行为,有一个明确而令人信服的理由来说明为什么美国应该进行干预。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty and the New Middle East 不确定性与新中东
Pub Date : 2011-03-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8CG00H0
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The first few months of 2011 have been a good reminder of the role of uncertainty in international politics and foreign policy. The overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, possible ouster of Moammar Gaddafi in Libya as well as widespread demonstrations in Bahrain, Tunisia, where this all started, Morocco and elsewhere in the Middle East will likely be among the biggest issues and challenges facing American policy makers for quite a while, and will almost certainly dominate foreign policy questions for the duration of Barack Obama’s time as president.
2011年头几个月很好地提醒了人们不确定性在国际政治和外交政策中的作用。埃及总统胡斯尼•穆巴拉克的倒台,利比亚穆阿迈尔•卡扎菲的可能下台,以及巴林、突尼斯、摩洛哥和中东其他地方的大规模示威活动,可能会成为美国决策者在相当长一段时间内面临的最大问题和挑战,几乎肯定会在奥巴马总统任期内主导外交政策问题。
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引用次数: 0
Elections and Power in Belarus 白俄罗斯的选举和权力
Pub Date : 2010-12-20 DOI: 10.7916/D8M90K2N
Lincoln A. Mitchell
From 2003-2005, a wave of Color Revolutions brought about regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. These Color Revolutions all saw fraudulent elections lead to the ouster of undemocratic leaders. Although, for the most part these events failed to bring about the democratic advances which many hoped they would, the Color Revolutions were dramatic, largely peaceful events which inspired many people in that region and beyond. The wave of Color Revolutions did not last long, as fraudulent elections in Azerbaijan in 2005 and Belarus in 2006 led to some demonstrations followed by displays of state strength that ended those demonstrations quickly. Despite efforts in Iran and elsewhere, the Color Revolution model has not been successfully replicated since 2005.
从2003年到2005年,格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦的“颜色革命”浪潮带来了政权更迭。这些颜色革命都见证了选举舞弊导致不民主领导人下台。虽然在很大程度上,这些事件没有带来许多人所希望的民主进步,但颜色革命是戏剧性的,基本上是和平的事件,激励了该地区和其他地区的许多人。颜色革命的浪潮并没有持续太久,2005年阿塞拜疆和2006年白俄罗斯的舞弊选举导致了一些示威活动,随后国家力量的展示迅速结束了这些示威活动。尽管在伊朗和其他地方做出了努力,但自2005年以来,颜色革命的模式就没有被成功复制。
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引用次数: 0
WikiLeaks and the Power of Secrecy 维基解密和保密的力量
Pub Date : 2010-11-30 DOI: 10.7916/D89G5X7V
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The newest revelations from WikiLeaks is being described as a major scandal revealing potentially embarrassing and damaging secrets for the U.S., possibly causing tension between the U.S. and important allies and has caused the Obama administration to consider legal action against WikiLeaks. These leaks raise may cause lasting harm to the U.S. Much of this will be little more than embarrassing, but some will have more serious implications for the country and its security.
维基解密的最新爆料被形容为一桩重大丑闻,揭露了可能令美国尴尬和有害的秘密,可能导致美国与重要盟友之间的紧张关系,并导致奥巴马政府考虑对维基解密采取法律行动。这些泄密事件可能会对美国造成持久的伤害,其中大部分只是令人尴尬,但有些会对国家及其安全产生更严重的影响。
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引用次数: 0
China Can't Have It Both Ways, but Neither Should the U.S. 中国不可能两全其美,美国也不应该
Pub Date : 2010-11-18 DOI: 10.7916/D8NZ8J24
Lincoln A. Mitchell
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引用次数: 0
Georgia's Paradoxes 格鲁吉亚的悖论
Pub Date : 2010-11-09 DOI: 10.7916/D81C268Z
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Upon returning from another trip to Georgia the contradictions of the post-Rose Revolution, and post-war period in that country remain more clear than ever. The country has made some very unambiguously positive steps in the last seven years, and even the last two years. It is impossible not to notice this when visiting Georgia and its capital, Tbilisi. The city is replete with new buildings, bridges and roads. The disrepair of the immediate post-Soviet period has clearly giving way to a cleaner, better functioning city. The petty corruption which dominated former President Eduard Shevardnadze’s tenure as Georgia’s president has not been in evidence for years. University degrees are no longer simply sold by impoverished professors and corrupt university administrators. Police no longer stop drivers, seemingly at random, to shake them down for bribes.
从格鲁吉亚的另一次旅行回来后,玫瑰革命后的矛盾和该国战后时期的矛盾比以往任何时候都更加明显。这个国家在过去七年,甚至在过去两年里已经采取了一些非常明确的积极步骤。在访问格鲁吉亚及其首都第比利斯时,不可能不注意到这一点。这座城市到处都是新的建筑、桥梁和道路。后苏联时代的失修显然已经让位于一个更清洁、功能更好的城市。格鲁吉亚前总统谢瓦尔德纳泽(Eduard Shevardnadze)担任总统期间的腐败现象多年来一直没有出现。大学学位不再仅仅是由贫穷的教授和腐败的大学管理者出售。警察不再随意拦下司机,以勒索他们的贿赂。
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引用次数: 0
Angela Merkel and the Failure of Multi-Culturalism in Germany 安吉拉·默克尔与德国多元文化主义的失败
Pub Date : 2010-10-21 DOI: 10.7916/D8G450PM
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Angela Merkel’s recent remarks about the failure of Germany as a multi-cultural society are disturbing for a number of reasons. It is possible to interpret this simply as chauvinism on the part of the German chancellor, but there is likely more to her comments than that. While the accuracy of her statement can certainly be debated, it is clear that Merkel’s comments reflect views held by many in Germany, as well as in Europe more broadly. The question is what should Germany, or any country, do about a situation like this.
安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)最近关于德国作为一个多元文化社会的失败的言论令人不安,原因有很多。这可能被简单地解释为德国总理的沙文主义,但她的言论可能不止于此。虽然她的言论的准确性当然可以争论,但很明显,默克尔的言论反映了许多德国人以及更广泛的欧洲人的观点。问题是,面对这样的局面,德国或任何一个国家应该做些什么。
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引用次数: 0
Why Obama Institutionalized the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars 为什么奥巴马将伊拉克和阿富汗战争制度化
Pub Date : 2010-10-07 DOI: 10.7916/D82V2RJ9
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The war in Afghanistan has now gone on for nine full years with no clear end, other than a self-imposed summer 2011 deadline from which the administration has been back pedaling almost since it was set, in sight. Similarly, the end-again-of combat operations in Iraq has left 50,000 American troops there with no clear indication of when they will come home. Ironically, a president whose campaign was initially made possible by substantial support from the anti-war movement, will be responsible not for ending the two wars that he inherited, but for institutionalizing them.
阿富汗战争至今已经持续了整整9年,没有明确的结局,除了自己设定的2011年夏天的最后期限外,奥巴马政府几乎从设定的最后期限开始就一直在推诿。同样,伊拉克战争的再次结束也使得5万名美国士兵留在那里,他们何时会回家也没有明确的迹象。具有讽刺意味的是,一位最初在反战运动的大力支持下才得以竞选的总统,将不负责结束他接手的两场战争,而是负责将它们制度化。
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引用次数: 0
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