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Beyond the Elections in Georgia 格鲁吉亚选举之外
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8DJ5R1Q
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Sunday’s local elections in Georgia were predictable, both with regards to the outcome and the statements by international election observers. President Mikheil Saakashvilli’s United National Movement (UNM) won solid victories in every local council in Georgia while Gigi Ugulava, the UNM candidate handily defeated Irakli Alasania, the leading opposition figure, in the race for mayor of Tbilisi. Meanwhile the OSCE/ODIHR election report declared that the “The 30 May municipal elections marked evident progress towards meeting OSCE and Council of Europe commitments. However, significant remaining shortcomings include deficiencies in the legal framework, its implementation, an uneven playing field, and isolated cases of election-day fraud.” This is the election observation equivalent of a gentlemen’s B.
从选举结果和国际选举观察员发表的声明来看,格鲁吉亚星期天的地方选举是可以预料的。总统米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利领导的统一民族运动(UNM)在格鲁吉亚的每个地方议会都取得了坚实的胜利,而统一民族运动候选人吉吉·乌古拉瓦在第比利斯市长竞选中轻松击败了主要反对派人物伊拉克·阿拉萨尼亚。与此同时,欧安组织/民主人权办的选举报告宣布,“5月30日的市政选举标志着在实现欧安组织和欧洲委员会的承诺方面取得明显进展。然而,仍然存在的重大缺陷包括法律框架的缺陷、法律的执行、不公平的竞争环境以及选举日欺诈的个别案件。”在选举观察中,这相当于绅士得分B。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Assumptions Behind American Foreign Policy 重新审视美国外交政策背后的假设
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8PR85CV
Lincoln A. Mitchell
U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War, and in many regards since end of World War II has rested on several assumptions not about the nature of the world or of the threats facing the U.S., but about the U.S. and America’s perception of itself. Several key components of American foreign policy in its internationalist form including democracy promotion, foreign assistance generally, the unique role the U.S. seeks to play in global security issues, the U.S. military presence in almost every corner of the world, and the emphasis on human rights all are based upon the U.S. viewing itself as both able to make an impact and affluent enough to afford trying.
自冷战结束以来,在许多方面,自二战结束以来,美国的外交政策都建立在几个假设的基础上,这些假设不是关于世界的本质或美国面临的威胁,而是关于美国和美国对自己的看法。美国国际主义外交政策的几个关键组成部分包括促进民主,对外援助,美国寻求在全球安全问题上发挥的独特作用,美国在世界几乎每个角落的军事存在,以及对人权的强调,所有这些都是基于美国认为自己既能够产生影响,又足够富裕,可以承担得起尝试。
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引用次数: 2
Foreign Policy and Presidential Expectations 外交政策和总统期望
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8NS148G
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The ability to manage expectations is an important political skill, both when seeking office, particularly the American presidency because a presidential campaign consists of numerous primaries over the course of several months before the general election in November, as well as when governing. President Obama, has done a good job of managing the enormous and unrealistic expectations around domestic issues, particularly the economy, which he encountered when he became president in January of 2009. Obama has done this by constantly reminding voters about the extremely difficult economic environment he encountered when he took office and has frequently warning that it will be a long and tough path back to good economic times.
管理期望的能力是一项重要的政治技能,无论是在竞选公职时,尤其是在竞选美国总统时,因为总统竞选包括在11月大选前的几个月里举行的无数次初选,还是在执政时。奥巴马总统在处理国内问题上的巨大而不切实际的期望方面做得很好,特别是在经济问题上,这是他在2009年1月就任总统时遇到的。为此,奥巴马不断提醒选民他上任时所面临的极其困难的经济环境,并经常警告说,要想恢复经济繁荣,将是一条漫长而艰难的道路。
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引用次数: 0
The Illogic of the War in Afghanistan 阿富汗战争的不合逻辑
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8251TK9
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Whether or not the article is right or wrong about Yemen is of secondary import. The more important issue is that there almost certainly will be another Afghanistan somewhere in the world. There are too many failing states with an Islamist presence, in which Al Qaeda could operate, for this not to be the case. This reality demonstrates the poor logic of the continued U.S. effort in Afghanistan. For the most part opposition to the war in Afghanistan has argued that the U.S. cannot achieve its goals there or that the cost of achieving those goals is too high. The New York Times article raises a different, but probably more important point-even on the off-chance that U.S. goals are achieved in Afghanistan, it won’t really matter because the terrorists will move somewhere else, most likely Yemen.
这篇关于也门的文章是对是错是次要的。更重要的问题是,世界上的某个地方几乎肯定会出现另一个阿富汗。有太多失败的国家有伊斯兰势力存在,基地组织可以在其中活动,所以情况并非如此。这一现实表明,美国在阿富汗继续努力的逻辑很糟糕。大多数反对阿富汗战争的人认为,美国无法实现其在阿富汗的目标,或者实现这些目标的成本太高。《纽约时报》的文章提出了一个不同的,但可能更重要的观点——即使美国在阿富汗的目标实现的可能性很小,这也无关紧要,因为恐怖分子会转移到其他地方,最有可能是也门。
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引用次数: 0
The Crisis of No Crisis: The Post-Recession Blues 没有危机的危机:后经济衰退的忧郁
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D88K7KFW
Lincoln A. Mitchell
When the global economic crisis began nine months ago, we were told that this crisis was like no other and would destroy the global financial architecture, and perhaps capitalism itself. It was not uncommon to read about the end of globalization and the likelihood of worldwide political instability because of impending economic doom. Now, according to most of these same pundits, the worst is over and, while the global economy may not be getting better yet, it is at the very least getting worse more slowly.
9个月前,当全球经济危机爆发时,我们被告知,这场危机与众不同,将摧毁全球金融架构,甚至可能摧毁资本主义本身。人们经常读到全球化的终结,以及由于即将到来的经济灾难而导致全球政治不稳定的可能性。现在,根据这些专家中的大多数人的说法,最糟糕的时期已经过去,尽管全球经济可能还没有好转,但至少恶化的速度正在放缓。
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引用次数: 0
Is U.S. Soft Power Declining Too 美国软实力也在下降吗
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8SQ98SF
Lincoln A. Mitchell
It is difficult to open a newspaper or peruse the internet without reading about America’s declining power around the globe. These stories which never really go away but seem to have increased in the last few years almost invariably focus on America’s reduced economic power as well as the rise of other powerful countries or blocks, most prominently China, but also India, Russia, Brazil and even Europe.
打开报纸或浏览互联网,很难不读到美国在全球的影响力正在下降的消息。这些故事从未真正消失,但在过去几年中似乎有所增加,几乎无一例外地集中在美国经济实力的下降以及其他强国或集团的崛起上,最突出的是中国,还有印度、俄罗斯、巴西,甚至欧洲。
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引用次数: 0
Another Election in Afghanistan 阿富汗再次举行选举
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8542Z09
Lincoln A. Mitchell
During the Vietnam War era one of the slogans of the anti-war movement was “What if they gave a war and nobody came?” Among the more popular riffs on that slogan, usually used to bemoan low voter turnout is “What if they gave an election and nobody came?” The election in Afghanistan last week raises a different question “What if they gave an election and it really wasn’t that important?” It is becoming evident that if and when Afghanistan makes meaningful steps towards democracy, elections will play a key role, but until that happens, elections may not be very central to Afghanistan’s development.
在越南战争时期,反战运动的口号之一是“如果他们发动了一场战争,却没有人参战怎么办?”在这句口号中,最受欢迎的是“如果他们举行选举,却没有人来呢?”这句话通常用来哀叹投票率低。上周在阿富汗举行的选举提出了一个不同的问题:“如果他们举行的选举真的不是那么重要呢?”越来越明显的是,如果阿富汗朝着民主迈出有意义的一步,选举将发挥关键作用,但在此之前,选举可能不是阿富汗发展的核心。
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引用次数: 0
Does the UN Report on the Gaza War Accomplish Anything 联合国关于加沙战争的报告有成效吗
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8QV3WX5
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The central findings of the EU report on Georgia can be summarized as that Georgia fired first so in some technical sense started the war, but that Russian aggression towards Georgia predated the events of August 7th, 2008 and created the context for Georgia’s actions on August 7th. This finding is also a nice summation of the conventional and widely accepted understanding of the origins of the war in Europe and the US.
欧盟关于格鲁吉亚的报告的核心结论可以概括为:格鲁吉亚首先开火,所以从某种技术意义上讲,是格鲁吉亚发动了战争,但俄罗斯对格鲁吉亚的侵略早在2008年8月7日事件发生之前,并为格鲁吉亚8月7日的行动创造了背景。这一发现也很好地总结了欧洲和美国对战争起源的传统和广泛接受的理解。
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引用次数: 0
The Sum of Obama’s Foreign Policy Parts 奥巴马外交政策部分的总和
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D87D34BM
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The end of the war in Iraq demonstrates the success, and the ambiguous nature of that success, that has characterized much of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy. In some respects, the Obama administration has several substantial foreign policy accomplishments to which it can point on the eve of an election year. The capture and killing of Osama Bin Laden and winding down the war in Iraq are the most visible, but the administration has also responded effectively to some global events in places like North Africa and Russia wisely.
伊拉克战争的结束显示了成功,以及这种成功的模糊性,这在很大程度上是奥巴马总统外交政策的特点。在某些方面,奥巴马政府在大选前夕取得了几项重大外交政策成就。奥萨马•本•拉登(Osama Bin Laden)的被捕和被击毙以及伊拉克战争的逐渐结束是最明显的,但奥巴马政府也对北非和俄罗斯等地的一些全球事件做出了明智的有效回应。
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引用次数: 0
Five Issues for 2011 2011年五期
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8J67SBQ
Lincoln A. Mitchell
It is likely that by the time 2011 winds down, the major international affairs questions dominating the news will include issues that seem distant in the first week of the year. Every year brings surprises, unforeseen wars, natural disasters and the like, but it is also possible to look with some confidence towards the New Year and identify some foreign policy issues, or questions, that are likely to become more important during the year.
很可能在2011年即将结束的时候,占据新闻头条的主要国际事务问题将包括那些在今年第一周看起来很遥远的问题。每年都会带来惊喜,不可预见的战争,自然灾害等等,但也有可能对新的一年充满信心,并确定一些外交政策问题,或问题,可能在这一年变得更加重要。
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引用次数: 0
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