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The Russian and U.S. Presidential Elections 俄罗斯和美国总统选举
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8BV7RT8
Lincoln A. Mitchell
On March 4th, Russians will go to the polls to “elect” their next president. As with most elections in the former Soviet Union, other than the Baltic countries, the most interesting questions are not concerned with who will win. It is all but certain that Russia’s current prime minister and erstwhile president, Vladimir Putin will win that election. The more compelling question raised by the Russian presidential election is what will happen after the votes are cast. Fraud in the December 2011 parliamentary election led to major demonstrations in Moscow representing the first cracks in the carefully constructed facade of invincibility which Putin had so arduously worked to create during the last decade.
3月4日,俄罗斯人将去投票站“选举”他们的下一任总统。除波罗的海国家外,与前苏联的大多数选举一样,最有趣的问题与谁将获胜无关。几乎可以肯定的是,俄罗斯现任总理、前总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)将赢得这次选举。俄罗斯总统大选引发的更引人注目的问题是,投票结束后会发生什么。2011年12月的议会选举舞弊导致了莫斯科的大规模示威活动,这是普京在过去十年中如此辛苦地打造的精心打造的无敌外表首次出现裂缝。
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引用次数: 0
Staying Relevant on Human Rights 在人权问题上保持相关性
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D85X2KB5
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s recent statement in Hanoi that the U.S. is concerned about human rights violations in Vietnam is precisely the kind of rhetoric for which human rights and democracy activists have been calling. Demonstrations of U.S. concern about these issues made by high level officials is an integral part of efforts to improve human rights in countries like Vietnam. Clinton’s remarks also signify, if not a shift, than certainly a break from comments she made in 2009 in China where she seemed to indicate that China’s human rights violations were not all that important to the U.S. suggesting that for the U.S. and China “it might be better to agree to disagree” on those issues. Clearly, China plays a different global role than Vietnam and the U.S., as Clinton pointed out on that trip, has a number of other very important issues on which it needs to work with China, but the change in the tone of her remarks is striking.
美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)最近在河内发表的声明说,美国对越南侵犯人权的行为感到关切,这正是人权和民主活动人士一直在呼吁的那种言论。美国高层官员表达对这些问题的关注,是改善越南等国人权的一个组成部分。克林顿的言论即使不是转变,也意味着她与2009年在中国发表的言论有所不同,当时她似乎表示,中国侵犯人权的行为对美国来说并不那么重要,这表明对于美国和中国来说,在这些问题上“求同存异可能更好”。显然,中国扮演着与越南不同的全球角色,正如克林顿在那次访问中指出的那样,美国还有许多其他非常重要的问题需要与中国合作,但她讲话语气的变化令人震惊。
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引用次数: 0
The START Treaty and Partisan Politics 削减战略武器条约与党派政治
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8KW5RDN
Lincoln A. Mitchell
For many years the notion that partisan politics ended at America’s shores contained a smattering of accuracy with a healthy overlay of propaganda. There have been too many exceptions over history for that phrase to contain more than a kernel of truth. Partisan disputes about entrance into World War II, Cold War strategy and the Vietnam War were just some of the times that the American political leadership was divided on key foreign policy questions during the time when this framework was allegedly at its strongest. Since the Vietnam War era, disputes over foreign policy from Central America to the Middle East have been a constant presence in our political life.
多年来,党派政治终结于美国海岸的观念,包含着少量的准确性和健康的宣传覆盖。历史上有太多的例外,这句话除了包含一个核心的真理之外,还包含了太多的真理。在美国政治领导层在关键外交政策问题上出现分歧的时候,党派之争涉及美国是否参加第二次世界大战、冷战战略和越南战争等问题,而这段时间据称是这个框架最牢固的时期。自越南战争以来,从中美洲到中东的外交政策争议一直是我们政治生活中的常客。
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引用次数: 0
Seinfeld Elections: Why Democracy Needs Conflict 《宋飞正传选举:为什么民主需要冲突
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D812632F
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Democracy works best when people in society disagree on a range of issues. If one issue, an obvious example of this would be ethnicity, dominates in a country, than election outcomes will be the same each time and the government will either be paralyzed or permanent winners and permanent losers will emerge. When this happens, democracy falters because, in the former case, the state is immobilized, and in the latter case, the permanent losers see no democratic way out of their condition. Iraq, Bosnia and Lebanon are all examples of countries where ethnic identity has held sway as the major issue which determines how people vote.
当社会上的人们在一系列问题上意见相左时,民主才能发挥最佳作用。如果一个问题,一个明显的例子是种族,在一个国家占主导地位,那么每次选举的结果都是一样的,政府要么瘫痪,要么出现永久的赢家和永久的输家。当这种情况发生时,民主就会动摇,因为在前一种情况下,国家是固定不动的,而在后一种情况下,永久的失败者看不到民主的出路。伊拉克、波斯尼亚和黎巴嫩都是种族认同成为决定人们如何投票的主要问题的例子。
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引用次数: 0
U.S. Leaving Iraq with All Deliberate Speed 美国以深思熟虑的速度撤离伊拉克
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8D50X5W
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The U.S. is now planning to remove all its troops from Iraq by the end of 2011. This might mean that one of the most expensive, ill-conceived and destructive chapters in American foreign policy is now coming to a close. The decision to get out of Iraq could not have been an easy one. Fears of a growing Iranian influence in the region or the collapse of the young Iraqi state are legitimate. They are no longer, however, compelling reasons for the U.S. to remain in Iraq. If there was any guarantee, or even strong likelihood, that two, three or even five more years of U.S. involvement in Iraq would ensure that Iran’s influence would not grow in Iraq or that the Iraqi government would be stable and well-functioning, there would be a strong argument for staying in Iraq. The reality, that there is no way to know how much longer, or at what cost, the U.S. would need to stay in Iraq to achieve these goals, means that it is time to get out. More accurately, it means that it has been time to get out for a while.
美国目前计划在2011年底之前从伊拉克撤出所有军队。这可能意味着,美国外交政策中最昂贵、最欠考虑、最具破坏性的篇章之一即将结束。从伊拉克撤军的决定不可能是一个容易的决定。人们担心伊朗在该地区的影响力日益增强,或者年轻的伊拉克政权崩溃,这些都是合理的。然而,它们不再是美国留在伊拉克的令人信服的理由。如果有任何保证,甚至是极有可能,美国在伊拉克再多介入两年、三年甚至五年,就能确保伊朗在伊拉克的影响力不会增加,或者伊拉克政府将保持稳定和良好运作,那么就会有强有力的理由留在伊拉克。现实情况是,没有办法知道美国需要在伊拉克停留多久,或者以什么代价来实现这些目标,这意味着现在是撤军的时候了。更准确地说,这意味着现在是时候退出一段时间了。
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引用次数: 0
Will the Election Change Obama's Foreign Policy 大选会改变奥巴马的外交政策吗
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8H421VF
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The recent midterm elections were characterized by a striking absence of any discussion of foreign policy. This was particularly notable given that the U.S. remains mired in two wars, declarations of the end of combat in Iraq notwithstanding, neither of which can be said to be going particularly well. Perhaps this is because both parties, the Republicans who have sought to present themselves as the party of hawks and national security, and the Democrats because the war in Afghanistan has been escalated by President Obama, had few incentives to bring foreign policy into the campaign. It is more likely that foreign policy was rarely discussed during the campaign because, like most elections, the dominant issues in this campaign, and the most important to voters were jobs and the economy.
最近的中期选举的特点是没有对外交政策进行任何讨论。这一点尤其值得注意,因为美国仍深陷两场战争的泥潭,尽管宣布在伊拉克结束战斗,但这两场战争都不能说进展得特别顺利。也许这是因为两党都没有把外交政策纳入竞选的动机,共和党试图把自己表现为鹰派和国家安全的政党,民主党则因为奥巴马总统把阿富汗战争升级了。更有可能的是,在竞选期间很少讨论外交政策,因为像大多数选举一样,这次竞选的主要问题,对选民来说最重要的问题是就业和经济。
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引用次数: 0
We Have to Be There Because We Have to Be There - The Future of U.S. Engagement 我们必须在那里,因为我们必须在那里——美国参与的未来
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8445WWZ
Lincoln A. Mitchell
One of the major advantages of being the world’s only superpower, as the U.S. was for much of the last twenty years, is that the U.S. was the only country strong enough to be able to have influence across the globe. A major disadvantage which confronts the U.S. is that because of its power, it has to be concerned about what happens more or less everywhere across the globe. Over the last decades, the U.S. has maneuvered itself into a position where virtually every country is important and every region is strategically vital. There are some exceptions to this, notably in Africa, but that too is changing. This began with the global struggle of the Cold War, but has continued well beyond that conflict.
作为世界上唯一的超级大国,正如美国在过去20年的大部分时间里所做的那样,其主要优势之一是美国是唯一强大到能够在全球范围内产生影响的国家。美国面临的一个主要劣势是,由于它的实力,它不得不或多或少地关注全球各地发生的事情。在过去的几十年里,美国已经使自己处于这样一种地位:几乎每个国家都很重要,每个地区都具有战略重要性。当然也有一些例外,尤其是在非洲,但这种情况也在改变。这始于冷战的全球斗争,但一直延续到这场冲突之后。
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引用次数: 0
Why Is the World Cup Coverage So Full of Stereotypes 为什么世界杯报道充斥着刻板印象
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D822345C
Lincoln A. Mitchell
Like many Americans, I know and care very little about soccer and the World Cup. I understand intellectually that it is a great sport with tens of millions of devoted fans, but not having grown up around it, I do not have an appreciation for its nuances and beauty. I suspect this is how many from non-baseball playing countries feel about baseball, a sport in which I have some interest and knowledge.
像许多美国人一样,我对足球和世界杯知之甚少。我理智地理解这是一项拥有数千万忠实粉丝的伟大运动,但我不是在它周围长大的,我无法欣赏它的细微差别和美丽。我怀疑这就是许多来自非棒球运动国家的人对棒球的看法,而我对这项运动有一些兴趣和了解。
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引用次数: 0
Revolution and Democracy in Egypt 埃及的革命与民主
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D8WH30CB
Lincoln A. Mitchell
The term revolution has been used by many people to describe the ongoing demonstrations in Egypt. Additionally, part of the narrative about these events is that the revolution will lead to democracy as most revolutions do. This narrative, however, should be viewed, at this time, as aspirational. It is obviously possible that we will see a revolution in Egypt from which democracy will grow, but it is very far from certain that this is what will happen there.
许多人用“革命”这个词来描述埃及正在进行的示威活动。此外,关于这些事件的部分叙述是,这场革命将导致民主,就像大多数革命一样。然而,这种叙述在目前应该被视为一种理想。很明显,我们有可能在埃及看到一场革命,民主将由此发展,但我们还远远不能确定埃及会发生这样的事情。
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引用次数: 0
Egypt and Post Affluent America 埃及和后富裕时代的美国
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.7916/D88P68X3
Lincoln A. Mitchell
It is only a few days after the resignation of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and demonstrations have already spread to much of the Middle East with several governments including those in Libya and Bahrain appearing to be on the verge of collapsing. It is possible that the regimes in Libya and Bahrain will right themselves and find a way to stay in power, but it seems more likely that at least one of these countries, and perhaps others in the region, will, like Egypt and Tunisia, see a resignation or abdication soon.
埃及前总统穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)辞职才几天,示威活动已经蔓延到中东大部分地区,包括利比亚和巴林在内的几个国家的政府似乎处于崩溃的边缘。利比亚和巴林的政权有可能纠正自己的错误,找到继续掌权的方法,但似乎更有可能的是,这些国家中至少有一个,或许还有该地区的其他国家,会像埃及和突尼斯一样,很快出现辞职或退位的情况。
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