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Empirical study on conservative and representative heuristics of Hong Kong small investors adopting momentum and contrarian trading strategies 香港小投资者采用动量和逆向交易策略的保守性和代表性启发式实证研究
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-11-16 DOI: 10.1504/ijrm.2018.10013081
W. Wong, S. Chow, Tai-Yuen Hon, KAI-YIN Woo
Recently, a new Bayesian approach has been developed to explain some market anomalies. In this paper, we conduct a questionnaire survey to examine whether the theory holds empirically by studying the conservative and representative heuristics by Hong Kong small investors who adopt momentum and/or contrarian trading strategies. In addition, our study provides evidence for the small investors on their time horizon and risk tolerance when facing uncertainty in their investments. Our findings are useful to small investors in their investment decision making and useful to financial advisors in providing service to small investors.
最近,一种新的贝叶斯方法被用来解释一些市场异常现象。本文采用问卷调查的方法,通过研究香港小投资者在采用动量和/或逆向交易策略时的保守性和代表性启发式,来检验该理论是否成立。此外,我们的研究为小投资者在面临投资不确定性时的时间范围和风险承受能力提供了证据。研究结果对中小投资者的投资决策和理财顾问为中小投资者提供服务有一定的参考价值。
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引用次数: 10
A reservation model for a single firm serving a market with strategic consumers 为具有战略消费者的市场服务的单个公司的保留模型
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2017.084146
Ismail Civelek
This paper considers a firm's reservation policy when it faces uncertain demand that depends on the strategic consumers. The modelling approach used in the present paper extends our understanding of reservations at a service firm (i.e., restaurants) when strategic consumers have outside options and different search costs. Consumers, in this study, are strategic due to different search costs, which include travelling, calling and inconvenience costs. The outside option represents the utility the consumer gets if he or she forgoes visiting the firm before knowing whether or not the product will be available. The model assumes exogenous price for the product in an equilibrium model and characterises the optimal reservation price, which is the price to hold a reservation, for the firm. The study evaluates the optimal reservation policy depending on the heterogeneity conditions of the strategic consumers and presents results based on the indifference values for search costs.
本文研究了企业在面对不确定需求时的保留策略,这种需求依赖于战略消费者。本文中使用的建模方法扩展了我们对服务公司(即餐馆)预订的理解,当战略消费者有外部选择和不同的搜索成本时。在这项研究中,由于不同的搜索成本,消费者是战略性的,包括旅行成本、呼叫成本和不便成本。外部选项表示如果消费者在知道产品是否可用之前放弃访问公司,那么他或她获得的效用。该模型在均衡模型中假设了产品的外生价格,并描述了最优保留价格,即企业保持保留的价格。研究根据战略消费者的异质性条件,评估了最优预订策略,并给出了基于搜索成本无差异值的结果。
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引用次数: 0
A call for exploratory data analysis in revenue management forecasting: a case study of a small and independent hotel in The Netherlands 呼吁在收入管理预测中进行探索性数据分析:以荷兰一家小型独立酒店为例
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2017.084147
D. Sierag, J. Rest, G. Koole, R. V. D. Mei, B. Zwart
Using five years of data collected from a small and independent hotel this case study explores RMS data as a means to seek new insights into occupancy forecasting. The study provides empirical evidence on the random nature of group cancellations, an important but neglected aspect in hotel revenue management modelling. The empirical study also shows that in a local market context demand differs significantly per point of time during the day, in addition to seasonal monthly and weekly demand patterns. Moreover, the study presents evidence on the nonhomogeneous Poisson nature of the probability distribution that demand follows, a crucial characteristic for forecasting modelling that is generally assumed but not reported in the hotel forecasting literature. This implies that demand is more uncertain for smaller than for larger hotels. The paper concludes by drawing attention to the critical and often overlooked role of exploratory data analysis in hotel revenue management forecasting.
本案例研究利用从一家小型独立酒店收集的五年数据,探索RMS数据,以此为手段,寻求对入住率预测的新见解。该研究为团体取消预订的随机性提供了经验证据,这是酒店收入管理模型中一个重要但被忽视的方面。实证研究还表明,在当地市场背景下,除了季节性的月度和每周需求模式外,一天中每个时间点的需求也有显著差异。此外,该研究提供了需求所遵循的概率分布的非齐次泊松性质的证据,这是预测建模的一个关键特征,酒店预测文献中通常假设但没有报道。这意味着,与大型酒店相比,小型酒店的需求更不确定。最后,本文提请注意探索性数据分析在酒店收入管理预测中的关键作用和经常被忽视的作用。
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引用次数: 8
Pricing of excess inventory on Groupon 超额库存在Groupon上的定价
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2017.084152
Kyle D. S. Maclean, John G. Wilson, Srinivas Krishnamoorthy
We consider the problem faced by a business that is considering using the Groupon platform to sell excess inventory. We discuss how demand functions can be derived using management knowledge. Then, using a single period model where excess inventory is exogenous, we show that the decision to use Groupon and the price to set on that channel depend on two parameters: the relative price sensitivity of Groupon customers as compared to the retailer's regular customers and the relative size of the Groupon market as compared to the regular market. Under a two-period model, when initial inventory is a decision, we show optimal inventory quantities. Our two-period model suggests that managers may plan on using Groupon and order inventory accordingly. We discuss the implications on third party channels as well as retail managers.
我们考虑的是一家企业所面临的问题,该企业正在考虑使用Groupon平台来销售多余的库存。我们讨论了如何使用管理知识来推导需求函数。然后,使用超额库存是外生的单周期模型,我们表明使用Groupon的决定和在该渠道上设定的价格取决于两个参数:Groupon客户与零售商的老客户相比的相对价格敏感性,以及Groupon市场与老市场相比的相对规模。在两阶段模型下,当初始库存是一个决策时,我们给出了最优库存量。我们的两个时期模型表明,经理们可能会计划使用Groupon并相应地订购库存。我们讨论了对第三方渠道以及零售经理的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The fiscal provisions on existing legal frameworks governing the oil sector in the Republic of South Sudan 关于管理南苏丹共和国石油部门的现有法律框架的财政规定
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2017-05-15 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2017.084145
Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, Zhen Wang, Abimelech Paye Gbatu
The Republic of South Sudan (RSS) is endowed with vast oil resources that are being produced by foreign oil companies (FOCs). However, it has been observed that the existing PSC contains some provisions that are inconsistent with international best practices. This paper explores, extracts and analyses the fiscal provisions in the existing legal framework of the PSCs that governs the oil sector in the RSS. All the appropriate legal regimes governing post-petroleum sector in South Sudan have been revisited and their fiscal provisions have been analysed. After reviewing the legal texts of the Transitional Constitution, the Petroleum Act, the exploration and production sharing agreements (EPSAs), the transitional agreements (TAs) and other relevant documents attached to the petroleum sector, the paper identifies some shortcomings of the PSCs such as lack of royalty and taxes. Henceforth, the paper provides policy recommendations for the institutional management of the petroleum sector in the RSS.
南苏丹共和国拥有由外国石油公司生产的大量石油资源。然而,据观察,现有PSC中包含一些与国际最佳实践不一致的条款。本文探讨、摘录和分析了RSS中管理石油行业的PSC现有法律框架中的财政条款。重新审视了管理南苏丹后石油部门的所有适当法律制度,并对其财政规定进行了分析。在审查了《过渡宪法》、《石油法》、《勘探和生产分成协议》、《过渡协议》和石油部门的其他相关文件的法律文本后,本文指出了PSCs的一些缺点,如缺乏特许权使用费和税收。此后,本文为RSS石油部门的机构管理提供了政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Optimisation of logistics network of a multinational firm under uncertainty 不确定条件下跨国公司物流网络优化研究
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-10-17 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2016.10000587
Zhili Tian
The problem of optimally determining the locations of plants and distribution centres for multinational firms is considered. This problem is formulated as a mixed-integer non-linear program which maximises the expected after-tax profit. Uncertainties of exchange rates and demand are considered in determining the facility locations. Heuristics to solve the problem are developed and bounds to evaluate the quality of the heuristics are derived. These methods are tested with data from a leading multinational manufacturer. The results show that the developed techniques have significant potential to maximise the profits of a multinational firm.
审议了以最佳方式确定跨国公司工厂和配送中心地点的问题。这个问题被表述为一个混合整数非线性规划,它使期望税后利润最大化。在确定设施选址时,考虑了汇率和需求的不确定性。提出了求解该问题的启发式方法,并推导了评价启发式方法质量的界限。这些方法都用一家领先的跨国制造商的数据进行了测试。结果表明,开发的技术具有显著的潜力,以最大限度地提高跨国公司的利润。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of financial crisis on bank revenue management 金融危机对银行收益管理的影响
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-10-17 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2016.10000588
L. Eng, Joohyung Ha
This paper examines bank management of revenue through loan loss provisions (LLPs) during the period of 2003-2013. The sample period includes the financial crisis of 2008-2009, during which banks experienced revenue slowdowns owing to plunging mortgage lending activity. We examine whether LLPs are significantly different between the pre- and post-crisis periods. Our findings indicate that LLPs are not lower after the crisis; that is, banks are not using LLPs to manage earnings upward and smooth earnings in the post-crisis period. We also examine the effect of regulatory intervention on LLPs, measuring regulatory intervention using three variables: capital ratio, liquidity of assets, and bank size. Our findings indicate that banks that are less likely to face regulatory intervention are more likely to use LLPs to manage earnings upward and to smooth earnings in the post-crisis period.
本文考察了2003-2013年期间银行通过贷款损失准备金(llp)管理收入的情况。样本时期包括2008-2009年的金融危机,在此期间,由于抵押贷款活动急剧下降,银行经历了收入放缓。我们考察了llp在危机前后是否存在显著差异。我们的研究结果表明,危机后llp并没有降低;也就是说,在危机后的时期,银行没有使用有限责任合伙人来管理盈利上升和平稳盈利。我们还考察了监管干预对有限责任合伙企业的影响,使用三个变量来衡量监管干预:资本比率、资产流动性和银行规模。我们的研究结果表明,不太可能面临监管干预的银行更有可能使用有限责任合伙公司来管理盈利,并在后危机时期平稳盈利。
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引用次数: 0
A bargaining framework for the airline alliance revenue sharing problem 航空联盟收益分享问题的议价框架
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-10-17 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2016.079817
S. Venkataraman, Parthasarathy Ramachandran
The main objective of complementary code share flights is to increase scope of the partner's network. When complementary codeshared flights aim at maximising their combined revenue, it might lead to inequitable distribution of revenue. Through this work, we address this issue of achieving a fair division of the combined revenue generated by the alliance network. Information of an airline's valuation of their product is typically private and could be overstated to increase their share of revenue generated through codeshare agreements. We therefore develop a bargaining framework and derive the conditions under which a specific point in Core of the cooperative game can be achieved.
互补代码共享航班的主要目标是扩大合作伙伴网络的范围。当互补代码共享航班的目标是最大化其综合收入时,可能会导致收入分配不公平。通过这项工作,我们解决了公平分配联盟网络产生的综合收入的问题。航空公司对其产品的估值信息通常是保密的,可能会被夸大,以增加他们通过代码共享协议产生的收入份额。因此,我们开发了一个讨价还价的框架,并推导出合作博弈中某个特定点可以达到的条件。
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引用次数: 1
Relationship between hotel rate increases and discounts and consumers' willingness-to-purchase: a prospect theory perspective 酒店涨价和折扣与消费者购买意愿的关系:前景理论视角
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-20 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2016.077018
Scott J. Smith
The objective of this research study was to determine the effect of hotel rate increases and discounts against a reference price in an effort to determine if consumer willingness-to-purchase rises and fall accordingly with the changes. The results of price increases against a reference price indicated that as the rates rose, a consumer's willingness-to-purchase decreased in direct relation to the magnitude of the increase. The results for rate discounts when compared to an established reference provided a non-linear relationship, and at certain levels provided no significant change in a consumer's willingness-to-purchase. This is an interesting finding that there is a nonlinear relationship between hotel rate discounts and consumers' willingness to pay. It explains some of the dilemmas faced by hotel managers with reference to hotel rate discounts and increases.
本研究的目的是确定酒店房价上涨和折扣对参考价格的影响,以确定消费者的购买意愿是否随着变化而上升和下降。与参考价格相比,价格上涨的结果表明,随着利率的上升,消费者的购买意愿与价格上涨的幅度成正比。与既定参考相比,费率折扣的结果提供了非线性关系,并且在某些水平上对消费者的购买意愿没有显着变化。这是一个有趣的发现,酒店房价折扣与消费者支付意愿之间存在非线性关系。它解释了酒店管理者在酒店房价折扣和上涨方面面临的一些困境。
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引用次数: 4
Behavioural pricing opportunities in tourism destinations: a collaborative approach 旅游目的地的行为定价机会:合作方法
Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-06-20 DOI: 10.1504/IJRM.2016.077020
H. Kuokkanen
This paper proposes collaborative behavioural pricing strategies to attract additional demand and revenue to a tourism destination. Unlike previous work, it emphasises opportunities to cooperate across tourism-linked businesses not owned by the same entity. Prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979) suggests that every spending decision creates disutility to a consumer, but that the marginal disutility of consumption decreases as the expenditure increases. Thus cross-business packages offered in a destination can lead to two types of benefits. First, they increase total visitor expenditure even when additional discounts are offered. Second, with pre-purchase of in-destination services, visitors face fewer spending decisions on arrival, and the resulting reduction in disutility increases their willingness to commit to additional spending. The proposed framework temporally divides visitor spending behaviour before and during the visit to analyse the potential benefits of collaboration. The model is illustrated by a numerical example and future research avenues for testing the framework are outlined.
本文提出了协作行为定价策略,以吸引旅游目的地的额外需求和收入。与以前的工作不同,它强调了不同实体拥有的与旅游相关的企业之间的合作机会。前景理论(Kahneman and Tversky, 1979)认为,每一个消费决策都会给消费者带来负效用,但消费的边际负效用会随着支出的增加而减少。因此,在目的地提供的跨业务包可以带来两种类型的好处。首先,即使提供额外折扣,它们也会增加游客的总支出。其次,通过预先购买目的地内的服务,游客在抵达时面临的消费决策更少,由此导致的负效用减少增加了他们承诺额外消费的意愿。提出的框架暂时划分游客在访问前和访问期间的消费行为,以分析合作的潜在好处。通过一个数值例子说明了该模型,并概述了测试该框架的未来研究途径。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
International Journal of Revenue Management
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