This paper uses loan-level data from Thailand's National Credit Bureau to study household debt over the life cycle of borrowers. We decompose two aggregate and commonly used measures of debt—debt per capita and delinquency rate—into components that unveil the extensive and intensive margins of household indebtedness. We find a striking inverted-U life-cycle pattern of indebtedness as predicted by economic theories. However, peaks are reached at different ages for different loan products and different lenders. We also find that debt has expanded over time for all age groups. Younger cohorts seem to originate debt earlier in their lives than older generations. Meanwhile, older borrowers remain indebted well past their retirement age. Finally, we find a downward pattern of delinquency over the life cycle. Our findings have important policy implications on financial access and distress of households as well as on economic development and financial stability of the economy.
{"title":"Household Debt and Delinquency over the Life Cycle","authors":"Sommarat Chantarat, Atchana Lamsam, Krislert Samphantharak, Bhumjai Tangsawasdirat","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00141","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses loan-level data from Thailand's National Credit Bureau to study household debt over the life cycle of borrowers. We decompose two aggregate and commonly used measures of debt—debt per capita and delinquency rate—into components that unveil the extensive and intensive margins of household indebtedness. We find a striking inverted-U life-cycle pattern of indebtedness as predicted by economic theories. However, peaks are reached at different ages for different loan products and different lenders. We also find that debt has expanded over time for all age groups. Younger cohorts seem to originate debt earlier in their lives than older generations. Meanwhile, older borrowers remain indebted well past their retirement age. Finally, we find a downward pattern of delinquency over the life cycle. Our findings have important policy implications on financial access and distress of households as well as on economic development and financial stability of the economy.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"61-92"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00141","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44721689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Four in five poor people in the Asia and Pacific region live in rural areas. Crop cycles in agrarian areas create periods of seasonal deprivation, or preharvest “lean seasons,” when work is scarce and skipped meals become frequent. In this paper, we document this phenomenon of seasonal poverty and discuss existing formal mechanisms for coping with it. We then focus on seasonal migration from rural to urban areas as a potential coping strategy and review the evidence on the effects of encouraging seasonal migration through transport subsidies. Over the past 10 years, we have conducted a series of randomized control trials in Bangladesh and Indonesia that provided rural agricultural workers with small migration subsidies to pay for the cost of round-trip travel to nearby areas in search of work. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from this multicountry, multiyear series of seasonal migration trials, the implications of these results for spatial misallocation, urbanization, and growth, and the replicability and relevance of this and other policies encouraging domestic migration more broadly for other areas in the Asia and Pacific region.
{"title":"Seasonal Poverty and Seasonal Migration in Asia","authors":"A. Mobarak, M. Reimão","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00139","url":null,"abstract":"Four in five poor people in the Asia and Pacific region live in rural areas. Crop cycles in agrarian areas create periods of seasonal deprivation, or preharvest “lean seasons,” when work is scarce and skipped meals become frequent. In this paper, we document this phenomenon of seasonal poverty and discuss existing formal mechanisms for coping with it. We then focus on seasonal migration from rural to urban areas as a potential coping strategy and review the evidence on the effects of encouraging seasonal migration through transport subsidies. Over the past 10 years, we have conducted a series of randomized control trials in Bangladesh and Indonesia that provided rural agricultural workers with small migration subsidies to pay for the cost of round-trip travel to nearby areas in search of work. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from this multicountry, multiyear series of seasonal migration trials, the implications of these results for spatial misallocation, urbanization, and growth, and the replicability and relevance of this and other policies encouraging domestic migration more broadly for other areas in the Asia and Pacific region.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"1-42"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00139","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45593386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper assesses the environmental and economic efficiency of thermal plants operating on fossil fuels in Pakistan using methods based on data envelopment analysis. Using the material balance principle, we find that cost- and carbon-efficient points can only be obtained simultaneously by switching to gas. However, under an assumption of variable returns to scale, these points can still be obtained without this conversion through the application of best practices. Furthermore, about 26% of costs and about 34% of carbon emissions can be reduced without a switch to gas, but instead by using technically efficient inputs; this approach can also lead to a significant reduction in electricity prices and considerable environmental benefits. Power plants operating on residual fuel oil are significantly more technically efficient than plants operating on gas. Nonetheless, both types of plants have an equal share in forming the metafrontier as exhibited by the meta-technology ratio. There is a definite need to make plants more efficient by using the best possible combination of inputs and overhauling. Bootstrap results also suggest that further improvement in efficiency is possible.
{"title":"Measuring the Ecological Efficiency of Thermal Power Plants: Evidence from Pakistan","authors":"Imran Qaiser, Theocharis N. Grigoriadis","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00145","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses the environmental and economic efficiency of thermal plants operating on fossil fuels in Pakistan using methods based on data envelopment analysis. Using the material balance principle, we find that cost- and carbon-efficient points can only be obtained simultaneously by switching to gas. However, under an assumption of variable returns to scale, these points can still be obtained without this conversion through the application of best practices. Furthermore, about 26% of costs and about 34% of carbon emissions can be reduced without a switch to gas, but instead by using technically efficient inputs; this approach can also lead to a significant reduction in electricity prices and considerable environmental benefits. Power plants operating on residual fuel oil are significantly more technically efficient than plants operating on gas. Nonetheless, both types of plants have an equal share in forming the metafrontier as exhibited by the meta-technology ratio. There is a definite need to make plants more efficient by using the best possible combination of inputs and overhauling. Bootstrap results also suggest that further improvement in efficiency is possible.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"159-184"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00145","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42112439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Do firms pay more taxes after formalization? The answer to this question is nontrivial. Tax noncompliance can be a persistent behavior among formerly informal firms. Analyzing the relationship between formalization and tax payments can also be challenging if nonswitching and switching firms have different characteristics. I use a panel dataset built from five small and medium-sized enterprise surveys conducted in Viet Nam from 2005 to 2013. By comparing nonswitching informal firms to switchers, I show that switchers are more likely to pay taxes and to pay a higher amount, thereby confirming heterogeneity. By comparing switchers before and after formalization, I find that formalization increases tax payment likelihood by 20% and the tax amount paid by 93%. A control function approach indicates that my results are robust to potential endogeneity of formalization. Therefore, this paper provides supportive evidence for a key public policy rationale to promote formalization: increased tax revenues.
{"title":"The Effects of Formalization on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Tax Payments: Panel Evidence from Viet Nam","authors":"Amadou Boly","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00144","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00144","url":null,"abstract":"Do firms pay more taxes after formalization? The answer to this question is nontrivial. Tax noncompliance can be a persistent behavior among formerly informal firms. Analyzing the relationship between formalization and tax payments can also be challenging if nonswitching and switching firms have different characteristics. I use a panel dataset built from five small and medium-sized enterprise surveys conducted in Viet Nam from 2005 to 2013. By comparing nonswitching informal firms to switchers, I show that switchers are more likely to pay taxes and to pay a higher amount, thereby confirming heterogeneity. By comparing switchers before and after formalization, I find that formalization increases tax payment likelihood by 20% and the tax amount paid by 93%. A control function approach indicates that my results are robust to potential endogeneity of formalization. Therefore, this paper provides supportive evidence for a key public policy rationale to promote formalization: increased tax revenues.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"140-158"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00144","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48960415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Unlike physical capital, human capital has both embodied and disembodied dimensions. It can be perceived not only as skill and acquired knowledge but also as knowledge spillover effects between overlapping generations and across different skill groups within and across countries. We illustrate the roles these characteristics play in the process of economic development, the relation between income growth and income and fertility distributions, and the relevance of human capital in determining the skill distribution of immigrants in a balanced-growth global equilibrium setting. In all three illustrations, knowledge spillover effects play a key role. The analysis offers new insights for understanding the decline in fertility below the population replacement rate in many developed countries, the evolution of income and fertility distributions across developing and developed countries, and the often asymmetric effects that endogenous immigration flows and their skill composition exert on the long-term net benefits from immigration to natives in source and destination countries.
{"title":"Human Capital as Engine of Growth: The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth within and across Countries","authors":"I. Ehrlich, Yun Pei","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00155","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00155","url":null,"abstract":"Unlike physical capital, human capital has both embodied and disembodied dimensions. It can be perceived not only as skill and acquired knowledge but also as knowledge spillover effects between overlapping generations and across different skill groups within and across countries. We illustrate the roles these characteristics play in the process of economic development, the relation between income growth and income and fertility distributions, and the relevance of human capital in determining the skill distribution of immigrants in a balanced-growth global equilibrium setting. In all three illustrations, knowledge spillover effects play a key role. The analysis offers new insights for understanding the decline in fertility below the population replacement rate in many developed countries, the evolution of income and fertility distributions across developing and developed countries, and the often asymmetric effects that endogenous immigration flows and their skill composition exert on the long-term net benefits from immigration to natives in source and destination countries.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"37 1","pages":"225-263"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00155","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48667984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the growth trajectory and the current state of the Indian automobile industry, paying attention to factors that underpinned its transition from import substitution to integration into global production networks. Market-conforming policies implemented by the government of India over the past 2 decades, which marked a clear departure from protectionist policies in the past, have been instrumental in transforming the Indian automobile industry in line with ongoing structural changes in the world automobile industry. India has emerged as a significant producer of compact cars within global automobile production networks. Compact cars exported from India have become competitive in the international market because of the economies of scale of producing for a large domestic market and product adaptation to suit domestic market conditions. Interestingly, there are no significant differences in prices of compact cars sold in domestic and foreign markets. This suggests that the hypothesis of “import protection as export promotion” does not hold for Indian automobile exports.
{"title":"From Import Substitution to Integration into Global Production Networks: The Case of the Indian Automobile Industry","authors":"P. Athukorala, C. Veeramani","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00132","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the growth trajectory and the current state of the Indian automobile industry, paying attention to factors that underpinned its transition from import substitution to integration into global production networks. Market-conforming policies implemented by the government of India over the past 2 decades, which marked a clear departure from protectionist policies in the past, have been instrumental in transforming the Indian automobile industry in line with ongoing structural changes in the world automobile industry. India has emerged as a significant producer of compact cars within global automobile production networks. Compact cars exported from India have become competitive in the international market because of the economies of scale of producing for a large domestic market and product adaptation to suit domestic market conditions. Interestingly, there are no significant differences in prices of compact cars sold in domestic and foreign markets. This suggests that the hypothesis of “import protection as export promotion” does not hold for Indian automobile exports.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"72-99"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00132","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49212021","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses labor force survey data from India for 2000 and 2012 to examine how wages behave over the course of structural transformation. We find that wage employment between 2000 and 2012 displays the patterns one would expect for an economy undergoing structural transformation, with employment shares shifting from agriculture to industry and services, and from rural to urban areas and larger cities within urban areas. These shifts, as well as a shift to nonroutine occupations and routine manual occupations outside of agriculture, are associated with an improvement in average wages. Finally, simple Mincerian wage regressions confirm that jobs in larger firms and big cities are associated with significantly higher wages—even more so for women. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that policies that encourage the expansion of the formal sector and employment in larger firms are crucial for development.
{"title":"Wages Over the Course of Structural Transformation: Evidence from India","authors":"R. Hasan, R. Molato","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00134","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses labor force survey data from India for 2000 and 2012 to examine how wages behave over the course of structural transformation. We find that wage employment between 2000 and 2012 displays the patterns one would expect for an economy undergoing structural transformation, with employment shares shifting from agriculture to industry and services, and from rural to urban areas and larger cities within urban areas. These shifts, as well as a shift to nonroutine occupations and routine manual occupations outside of agriculture, are associated with an improvement in average wages. Finally, simple Mincerian wage regressions confirm that jobs in larger firms and big cities are associated with significantly higher wages—even more so for women. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that policies that encourage the expansion of the formal sector and employment in larger firms are crucial for development.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"131-158"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00134","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45535941","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper hypothesizes that there exists a relationship between the exporting and ownership characteristics of firms and the incidence of accidents at work, using a detailed dataset of manufacturing firms in Viet Nam. There appears to be a positive and highly significant effect of both exporting and foreign ownership on the frequency of accidents. The results obtained are robust across various specifications as well as alternative measures of exporting status and the severity of accidents. The study highlights a greater need for the implementation of labor standards in countries that are becoming increasingly reliant on globalization as a source of economic growth.
{"title":"Providing a Safe Working Environment: Do Firm Ownership and Exporting Status Matter?","authors":"Zara Liaqat","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00137","url":null,"abstract":"This paper hypothesizes that there exists a relationship between the exporting and ownership characteristics of firms and the incidence of accidents at work, using a detailed dataset of manufacturing firms in Viet Nam. There appears to be a positive and highly significant effect of both exporting and foreign ownership on the frequency of accidents. The results obtained are robust across various specifications as well as alternative measures of exporting status and the severity of accidents. The study highlights a greater need for the implementation of labor standards in countries that are becoming increasingly reliant on globalization as a source of economic growth.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"215-247"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49377985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper considers the sources of employment demand in Asian economies. Using data from the World–Input Output Database, I examine the relative importance of domestic and foreign demand in generating employment. Despite some degree of heterogeneity across the sample, domestic demand is found to be the major driver of employment in all cases. Further, the relative importance of final and intermediate exports in generating employment varies by economy, with some economies relying on intermediate exports to generate employment to a greater extent than others, reflecting their importance as suppliers of intermediate inputs in global value chains, while others rely to a greater extent on final exports, reflecting their role as assemblers within global value chains. Considering developments over time, I find that employment is driven by two offsetting factors: (i) final demand (either domestic or foreign) and (ii) labor productivity, with changes in interindustry structure also being important in the case of intermediate exports.
{"title":"Global Value Chains and Employment Growth in Asia","authors":"Neil Foster-McGregor","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00133","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the sources of employment demand in Asian economies. Using data from the World–Input Output Database, I examine the relative importance of domestic and foreign demand in generating employment. Despite some degree of heterogeneity across the sample, domestic demand is found to be the major driver of employment in all cases. Further, the relative importance of final and intermediate exports in generating employment varies by economy, with some economies relying on intermediate exports to generate employment to a greater extent than others, reflecting their importance as suppliers of intermediate inputs in global value chains, while others rely to a greater extent on final exports, reflecting their role as assemblers within global value chains. Considering developments over time, I find that employment is driven by two offsetting factors: (i) final demand (either domestic or foreign) and (ii) labor productivity, with changes in interindustry structure also being important in the case of intermediate exports.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"100-130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00133","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49578555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The conventional view of structural transformation is informed by three stylized facts of economic development: (i) all economies exhibit declining employment in agriculture, (ii) all economies exhibit a hump-shaped share of employment in industry, and (iii) all economies exhibit an increasing share of employment in services. In this paper, I show that this presumed path of structural transformation may no longer be the route to economic development in low-income economies. Classifying economies as either structurally developed, structurally developing, or structurally underdeveloped, I observe a different path of structural transformation in structurally underdeveloped economies in which workers are moving directly from agriculture to nonbusiness services, which as a sector does not have the same productivity gains as manufacturing. I also show that the mainstream approach is unable to explain the patterns of structural transformation observed in low-income developing economies. This suggests the need to rethink the theoretical premises behind much of the mainstream approach to structural transformation and to identify alternate causal mechanisms to explain the different types of structural transformation underway in the developing world.
{"title":"Structural Transformation around the World: Patterns and Drivers","authors":"K. Sen","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00130","url":null,"abstract":"The conventional view of structural transformation is informed by three stylized facts of economic development: (i) all economies exhibit declining employment in agriculture, (ii) all economies exhibit a hump-shaped share of employment in industry, and (iii) all economies exhibit an increasing share of employment in services. In this paper, I show that this presumed path of structural transformation may no longer be the route to economic development in low-income economies. Classifying economies as either structurally developed, structurally developing, or structurally underdeveloped, I observe a different path of structural transformation in structurally underdeveloped economies in which workers are moving directly from agriculture to nonbusiness services, which as a sector does not have the same productivity gains as manufacturing. I also show that the mainstream approach is unable to explain the patterns of structural transformation observed in low-income developing economies. This suggests the need to rethink the theoretical premises behind much of the mainstream approach to structural transformation and to identify alternate causal mechanisms to explain the different types of structural transformation underway in the developing world.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"1-31"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00130","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44955124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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