We reexamine the economic returns to education in the People's Republic of China (PRC) using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010. We find that the conventional ordinary least squares estimate of wage returns to schooling is 7.8%, while the instrumental variable estimate is 20.9%. The gains from schooling rise sharply with higher levels of education. The estimated returns are 12.2% in urban provinces and 10.7% in coastal provinces, higher than in rural and inland areas. In addition, the wage premium for workers with good English skills (speaking and listening) is 30%. These results are robust to controls for height, body mass index, and English language skills, and to corrections for sample selection bias. Our findings, together with a critical review of existing studies, confirm the growing significance of human capital as a determinant of labor market performance in postreform PRC.
{"title":"Labor Market Returns to Education and English Language Skills in the People's Republic of China: An Update","authors":"M. Asadullah, Saizi Xiao","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00124","url":null,"abstract":"We reexamine the economic returns to education in the People's Republic of China (PRC) using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010. We find that the conventional ordinary least squares estimate of wage returns to schooling is 7.8%, while the instrumental variable estimate is 20.9%. The gains from schooling rise sharply with higher levels of education. The estimated returns are 12.2% in urban provinces and 10.7% in coastal provinces, higher than in rural and inland areas. In addition, the wage premium for workers with good English skills (speaking and listening) is 30%. These results are robust to controls for height, body mass index, and English language skills, and to corrections for sample selection bias. Our findings, together with a critical review of existing studies, confirm the growing significance of human capital as a determinant of labor market performance in postreform PRC.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"80-111"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00124","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47311340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Slums are central to the global debate on inequality, serving as entry points for people moving to cities in search of economic opportunity. Yet we know little about the extent of intergenerational mobility in slums due to a lack of data tracking families across generations (including family members who no longer live together), as well as a lack of data covering slums. This paper addresses these empirical challenges using a field survey of four slums in Jakarta, tracking educational mobility spanning three generations: grandparents, parents, and children. Among grandparents who have less than primary education, only 24% of their children achieve junior secondary schooling or more. By contrast, among parents with less than primary education, 69% of their children attain junior secondary schooling or more. Overall, the patterns suggest improvements in educational mobility across generations. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that groups with high educational mobility also exhibit high occupational mobility.
{"title":"Intergenerational Mobility in Slums: Evidence from a Field Survey in Jakarta","authors":"Maisy Wong","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00121","url":null,"abstract":"Slums are central to the global debate on inequality, serving as entry points for people moving to cities in search of economic opportunity. Yet we know little about the extent of intergenerational mobility in slums due to a lack of data tracking families across generations (including family members who no longer live together), as well as a lack of data covering slums. This paper addresses these empirical challenges using a field survey of four slums in Jakarta, tracking educational mobility spanning three generations: grandparents, parents, and children. Among grandparents who have less than primary education, only 24% of their children achieve junior secondary schooling or more. By contrast, among parents with less than primary education, 69% of their children attain junior secondary schooling or more. Overall, the patterns suggest improvements in educational mobility across generations. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that groups with high educational mobility also exhibit high occupational mobility.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00121","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46455594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding how and why economies structurally transform as they grow is crucial for making sound national policy decisions. Typically, analysts who study this issue focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product and employment. This paper extends those studies to include exports, including exports of services. It also considers mining, in addition to agriculture and manufacturing, and recognizes that some of the products of these four sectors are nontradable. The section on theory presents a general equilibrium model that provides hypotheses about structural change in different types of economies as they grow. These are then tested econometrically with annual data for the period 1991–2014 for a sample of 117 countries. The results point to the futility of adopting protective policies aimed at slowing deagriculturalization and subsequent deindustrialization in terms of sectoral shares, since those trends inevitably will accompany economic growth. Fortuitously, governments now have more efficient and equitable ways of supporting adjustments needed by people who choose or are forced to leave declining industries.
{"title":"Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade?","authors":"K. Anderson, Sundar Ponnusamy","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00131","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding how and why economies structurally transform as they grow is crucial for making sound national policy decisions. Typically, analysts who study this issue focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product and employment. This paper extends those studies to include exports, including exports of services. It also considers mining, in addition to agriculture and manufacturing, and recognizes that some of the products of these four sectors are nontradable. The section on theory presents a general equilibrium model that provides hypotheses about structural change in different types of economies as they grow. These are then tested econometrically with annual data for the period 1991–2014 for a sample of 117 countries. The results point to the futility of adopting protective policies aimed at slowing deagriculturalization and subsequent deindustrialization in terms of sectoral shares, since those trends inevitably will accompany economic growth. Fortuitously, governments now have more efficient and equitable ways of supporting adjustments needed by people who choose or are forced to leave declining industries.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"36 1","pages":"32-71"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00131","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46241546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) is a leading mortality risk factor in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and many Asian countries. Current studies of PM2.5 mortality have been conducted at the national and provincial levels, or at the grid-based micro level, and report only the exposure index or attributable premature deaths. Little is known about the welfare implications of PM2.5 mortality for urban areas. In this study, we estimate the total cost of PM2.5 mortality, the benefit of its reduction achieved through meeting various air quality targets, and the benefit of mortality reduction achieved through a uniform 10 micrograms per cubic meter decrease in PM2.5 concentration in the urban areas of 300 major cities in the PRC. Significant heterogeneity exists in welfare indicators across rich versus poor and clean versus dirty cities. The results indicate that cities in the PRC should accelerate the fine particulate pollution control process and implement more stringent air quality targets to achieve much greater mortality reduction benefits.
{"title":"An Economic Evaluation of the Health Effects of Reducing Fine Particulate Pollution in Chinese Cities","authors":"Yana Jin, Shiqiu Zhang","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00114","url":null,"abstract":"Fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) is a leading mortality risk factor in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and many Asian countries. Current studies of PM2.5 mortality have been conducted at the national and provincial levels, or at the grid-based micro level, and report only the exposure index or attributable premature deaths. Little is known about the welfare implications of PM2.5 mortality for urban areas. In this study, we estimate the total cost of PM2.5 mortality, the benefit of its reduction achieved through meeting various air quality targets, and the benefit of mortality reduction achieved through a uniform 10 micrograms per cubic meter decrease in PM2.5 concentration in the urban areas of 300 major cities in the PRC. Significant heterogeneity exists in welfare indicators across rich versus poor and clean versus dirty cities. The results indicate that cities in the PRC should accelerate the fine particulate pollution control process and implement more stringent air quality targets to achieve much greater mortality reduction benefits.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"58-84"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00114","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48238634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.
{"title":"Carbon Trading Scheme in the People's Republic of China: Evaluating the Performance of Seven Pilot Projects","authors":"Xing Chen, Jintao Xu","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00117","url":null,"abstract":"The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"131-152"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00117","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47309422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Special Issue on The Climate Change Challenge to Asia's Development","authors":"","doi":"10.1162/adev_e_00120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_e_00120","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"85 3","pages":"iii-V"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_e_00120","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41258559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.
{"title":"Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform in the Developing World: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why?","authors":"I. Coxhead, Corbett A. Grainger","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00119","url":null,"abstract":"Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"180-203"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00119","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48581854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, monitoring, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, and offset markets. We assess the performances of the emission trading schemes among the three countries based on secondary-market allowance transactions. Considering heterogeneous climate policy designs in the region, we explore various approaches for the linkage of East Asian carbon markets. Cooperation on carbon markets is instrumental for regional and global climate governance. It could not only help achieve cost-effective emission reductions in the region, but also signal the commitment of the three countries to climate change mitigation.
{"title":"Regional Cooperation on Carbon Markets in East Asia","authors":"Jiajia Li, Junjie Zhang","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00118","url":null,"abstract":"The People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, monitoring, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, and offset markets. We assess the performances of the emission trading schemes among the three countries based on secondary-market allowance transactions. Considering heterogeneous climate policy designs in the region, we explore various approaches for the linkage of East Asian carbon markets. Cooperation on carbon markets is instrumental for regional and global climate governance. It could not only help achieve cost-effective emission reductions in the region, but also signal the commitment of the three countries to climate change mitigation.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"153-179"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00118","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44921128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled.
{"title":"Indonesia's Moratorium on Palm Oil Expansion from Natural Forests: Economy-Wide Impacts and the Role of International Transfers","authors":"A. Yusuf, E. Roos, J. Horridge","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00115","url":null,"abstract":"Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"85-112"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00115","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43977916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.
{"title":"Does Climate Change Bolster the Case for Fishery Reform in Asia?","authors":"C. Costello","doi":"10.1162/adev_a_00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/adev_a_00113","url":null,"abstract":"I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.","PeriodicalId":39852,"journal":{"name":"Asian Development Review","volume":"35 1","pages":"31-57"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2018-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1162/adev_a_00113","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46032065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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