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Labor Market Returns to Education and English Language Skills in the People's Republic of China: An Update 新中国劳动力市场回归教育和英语技能
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00124
M. Asadullah, Saizi Xiao
We reexamine the economic returns to education in the People's Republic of China (PRC) using data from the Chinese General Social Survey 2010. We find that the conventional ordinary least squares estimate of wage returns to schooling is 7.8%, while the instrumental variable estimate is 20.9%. The gains from schooling rise sharply with higher levels of education. The estimated returns are 12.2% in urban provinces and 10.7% in coastal provinces, higher than in rural and inland areas. In addition, the wage premium for workers with good English skills (speaking and listening) is 30%. These results are robust to controls for height, body mass index, and English language skills, and to corrections for sample selection bias. Our findings, together with a critical review of existing studies, confirm the growing significance of human capital as a determinant of labor market performance in postreform PRC.
我们使用2010年中国综合社会调查的数据重新审视了中华人民共和国教育的经济回报。我们发现,传统的普通最小二乘估计教育的工资回报为7.8%,而工具变量估计为20.9%。随着教育水平的提高,学校教育带来的收益也会急剧上升。城市省份和沿海省份的投资回报率分别为12.2%和10.7%,高于农村和内陆地区。此外,拥有良好英语技能(口语和听力)的工人的工资溢价为30%。这些结果对于身高、体重指数和英语语言技能的控制以及对样本选择偏差的修正都是稳健的。我们的研究结果,连同对现有研究的批判性回顾,证实了人力资本作为改革后中国劳动力市场表现的决定因素的重要性日益增加。
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引用次数: 11
Intergenerational Mobility in Slums: Evidence from a Field Survey in Jakarta 贫民窟的代际流动:来自雅加达实地调查的证据
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2019-03-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00121
Maisy Wong
Slums are central to the global debate on inequality, serving as entry points for people moving to cities in search of economic opportunity. Yet we know little about the extent of intergenerational mobility in slums due to a lack of data tracking families across generations (including family members who no longer live together), as well as a lack of data covering slums. This paper addresses these empirical challenges using a field survey of four slums in Jakarta, tracking educational mobility spanning three generations: grandparents, parents, and children. Among grandparents who have less than primary education, only 24% of their children achieve junior secondary schooling or more. By contrast, among parents with less than primary education, 69% of their children attain junior secondary schooling or more. Overall, the patterns suggest improvements in educational mobility across generations. Moreover, there is suggestive evidence that groups with high educational mobility also exhibit high occupational mobility.
贫民窟是全球不平等辩论的核心,也是人们为了寻找经济机会而搬到城市的切入点。然而,我们对贫民窟代际流动的程度知之甚少,因为缺乏跨代追踪家庭(包括不再住在一起的家庭成员)的数据,也缺乏涵盖贫民窟的数据。本文通过对雅加达四个贫民窟的实地调查,追踪了祖父母、父母和孩子三代人的教育流动性,解决了这些实证挑战。在受教育程度低于小学的祖父母中,只有24%的孩子达到初中或以上。相比之下,在受教育程度低于小学的父母中,69%的孩子接受了初中或以上教育。总的来说,这些模式表明教育代际流动性有所改善。此外,有证据表明,教育流动性高的群体也表现出较高的职业流动性。
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引用次数: 3
Structural Transformation to Manufacturing and Services: What Role for Trade? 向制造业和服务业转型:贸易扮演什么角色?
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00131
K. Anderson, Sundar Ponnusamy
Understanding how and why economies structurally transform as they grow is crucial for making sound national policy decisions. Typically, analysts who study this issue focus on sectoral shares of gross domestic product and employment. This paper extends those studies to include exports, including exports of services. It also considers mining, in addition to agriculture and manufacturing, and recognizes that some of the products of these four sectors are nontradable. The section on theory presents a general equilibrium model that provides hypotheses about structural change in different types of economies as they grow. These are then tested econometrically with annual data for the period 1991–2014 for a sample of 117 countries. The results point to the futility of adopting protective policies aimed at slowing deagriculturalization and subsequent deindustrialization in terms of sectoral shares, since those trends inevitably will accompany economic growth. Fortuitously, governments now have more efficient and equitable ways of supporting adjustments needed by people who choose or are forced to leave declining industries.
了解经济体在增长过程中如何以及为什么会发生结构转型,对于做出合理的国家政策决策至关重要。通常,研究这一问题的分析师关注的是部门在国内生产总值和就业中的份额。本文将这些研究扩展到包括服务出口在内的出口。除农业和制造业外,它还考虑了采矿业,并认识到这四个部门的一些产品是不可贸易的。理论部分介绍了一个一般均衡模型,该模型提供了不同类型经济体在增长过程中结构变化的假设。然后用1991-2014年期间117个国家的年度数据对这些数据进行计量检验。结果表明,采取旨在减缓部门份额方面的去农业化和随后的去工业化的保护性政策是徒劳的,因为这些趋势将不可避免地伴随着经济增长。幸运的是,政府现在有了更高效、更公平的方式来支持那些选择或被迫离开衰退行业的人所需的调整。
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引用次数: 8
An Economic Evaluation of the Health Effects of Reducing Fine Particulate Pollution in Chinese Cities 减少中国城市细颗粒物污染对健康影响的经济评价
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00114
Yana Jin, Shiqiu Zhang
Fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) is a leading mortality risk factor in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and many Asian countries. Current studies of PM2.5 mortality have been conducted at the national and provincial levels, or at the grid-based micro level, and report only the exposure index or attributable premature deaths. Little is known about the welfare implications of PM2.5 mortality for urban areas. In this study, we estimate the total cost of PM2.5 mortality, the benefit of its reduction achieved through meeting various air quality targets, and the benefit of mortality reduction achieved through a uniform 10 micrograms per cubic meter decrease in PM2.5 concentration in the urban areas of 300 major cities in the PRC. Significant heterogeneity exists in welfare indicators across rich versus poor and clean versus dirty cities. The results indicate that cities in the PRC should accelerate the fine particulate pollution control process and implement more stringent air quality targets to achieve much greater mortality reduction benefits.
细颗粒物污染(PM2.5)是中华人民共和国和许多亚洲国家的主要死亡风险因素。目前对PM2.5死亡率的研究是在国家和省级层面进行的,或者是在基于网格的微观层面进行的,并且只报告了暴露指数或可归因的过早死亡。PM2.5死亡率对城市地区的福利影响知之甚少。在本研究中,我们估算了PM2.5死亡率的总成本、通过满足各种空气质量目标而实现的降低死亡率的效益,以及通过在中国300个主要城市的城市地区将PM2.5浓度均匀降低10微克/立方米而实现的降低死亡率的效益。富裕城市与贫穷城市、清洁城市与污染城市之间的福利指标存在显著的异质性。结果表明,中国城市应加快细颗粒物污染控制进程,实施更严格的空气质量目标,以实现更大的死亡率降低效益。
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引用次数: 8
Carbon Trading Scheme in the People's Republic of China: Evaluating the Performance of Seven Pilot Projects 中华人民共和国碳交易计划:七个试点项目的绩效评估
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00117
Xing Chen, Jintao Xu
The People's Republic of China (PRC) launched seven emissions trading scheme (ETS) pilot projects in 2013–2014 to explore a cost-effective approach for low-carbon development. The central government subsequently announced its plans for the full-fledged implementation of ETS in the entire PRC in late 2017. To ensure the success of ETS in the PRC, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of the experiences and lessons learned in the pilot projects. In this paper, we provide a policy overview of the seven pilot projects, including policy design, legislative basis, and market performance. We use the synthetic control method to evaluate the carbon mitigation effect of each of the seven ETS pilots. Our findings are that success has been limited and uneven across the pilot projects, which warrants deeper evaluation of the differences between them and caution in scheme expansion. Results from the analysis also shed light on policy improvements that can benefit the nationwide development of ETS.
2013-2014年,中国启动了7个碳排放交易机制试点项目,探索低碳发展的成本效益途径。随后,中央政府宣布计划于2017年底在全国全面实施碳排放交易体系。为了确保ETS在中国取得成功,有必要更好地了解试点项目的经验和教训。在本文中,我们提供了七个试点项目的政策概述,包括政策设计,立法依据和市场绩效。本文采用综合控制方法对七个碳排放交易体系试点的碳减排效果进行了评价。我们的发现是,试点项目的成功是有限和不平衡的,这需要对它们之间的差异进行更深入的评估,并在计划扩展时保持谨慎。分析结果还揭示了有利于全国ETS发展的政策改进。
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引用次数: 7
Special Issue on The Climate Change Challenge to Asia's Development 气候变化对亚洲发展的挑战特刊
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_e_00120
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引用次数: 0
Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform in the Developing World: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why? 发展中国家的化石燃料补贴改革:谁赢了,谁输了,为什么?
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00119
I. Coxhead, Corbett A. Grainger
Fossil fuel subsidies are widespread in developing countries, where reform efforts are often derailed by disputes over the likely distribution of gains and losses. The impacts of subsidy reform are transmitted to households through changes in energy prices and prices of other goods and services, as well as through factor earnings. Most empirical studies focus on consumer expenditures alone, and computable general equilibrium analyses typically report only total effects without decomposing them by source. Meanwhile, analytical models neglect important open-economy characteristics relevant to developing countries. In this paper, we develop an analytical model of a small open economy with a preexisting fossil fuel subsidy and identify direct and indirect impacts of subsidy reform on real household incomes. Our results, illustrated with data from Viet Nam, highlight two important drivers of distributional change: (i) the mix of tradable and nontradable goods, reflecting the structure of a trade-dependent economy; and (ii) household heterogeneity in sources of factor income.
化石燃料补贴在发展中国家很普遍,这些国家的改革努力经常因收益和损失可能分配的争议而脱轨。补贴改革的影响通过能源价格、其他商品和服务价格的变化以及要素收益传递给家庭。大多数实证研究只关注消费者支出,可计算的一般均衡分析通常只报告总效应,而不按来源进行分解。同时,分析模型忽略了与发展中国家相关的重要开放经济特征。在本文中,我们建立了一个先前存在化石燃料补贴的小型开放经济体的分析模型,并确定了补贴改革对实际家庭收入的直接和间接影响。越南的数据表明,我们的结果突出了分配变化的两个重要驱动因素:(一)可贸易和不可贸易商品的组合,反映了依赖贸易的经济结构;二要素收入来源的家庭异质性。
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引用次数: 9
Regional Cooperation on Carbon Markets in East Asia 东亚碳市场区域合作
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00118
Jiajia Li, Junjie Zhang
The People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea have launched individual emission trading schemes to control greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. This paper reviews key carbon market design elements in the three countries in terms of emission allowances, covered sectors, allowance allocations, monitoring, reporting and verification, compliance and penalties, and offset markets. We assess the performances of the emission trading schemes among the three countries based on secondary-market allowance transactions. Considering heterogeneous climate policy designs in the region, we explore various approaches for the linkage of East Asian carbon markets. Cooperation on carbon markets is instrumental for regional and global climate governance. It could not only help achieve cost-effective emission reductions in the region, but also signal the commitment of the three countries to climate change mitigation.
中华人民共和国、日本和大韩民国推出了单独的排放交易计划,以成本效益控制温室气体排放。本文回顾了这三个国家在排放配额、涵盖的部门、配额分配、监测、报告和核查、合规和处罚以及抵消市场方面的关键碳市场设计要素。我们根据二级市场补贴交易评估了这三个国家排放交易计划的表现。考虑到该地区不同的气候政策设计,我们探索了东亚碳市场联系的各种方法。碳市场合作有助于区域和全球气候治理。这不仅有助于在该地区实现具有成本效益的减排,而且标志着三国对缓解气候变化的承诺。
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引用次数: 3
Indonesia's Moratorium on Palm Oil Expansion from Natural Forests: Economy-Wide Impacts and the Role of International Transfers 印度尼西亚暂停从天然林中开采棕榈油:全经济的影响和国际转让的作用
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00115
A. Yusuf, E. Roos, J. Horridge
Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled.
印度尼西亚已暂停将天然林转为棕榈油生产用地。使用印尼经济的动态、自下而上、区域间可计算的一般均衡模型,我们评估了暂停的几种情景,并讨论了其对国内经济以及印尼境内区域经济的影响。我们发现,暂停令降低了印尼的经济增长和其他宏观经济指标,但国际转移支付可以弥补福利损失。影响也因地区而异。苏门答腊岛高度依赖棕榈油,是不再有高碳储量的森林的家园,其转让较少,经济损失最大。加里曼丹对棕榈油的依赖相对较少,森林碳储量相对较高,因此获得了更多的转移,并获得了更大的利益。这意味着,如果要调和保护和减少区域间经济差距之间的权衡,就需要采取额外的政策措施来预测暂停的不平衡影响。
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引用次数: 12
Does Climate Change Bolster the Case for Fishery Reform in Asia? 气候变化是否支持亚洲渔业改革?
IF 1.5 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.1162/adev_a_00113
C. Costello
I examine the estimated economic, ecological, and food security effects of future fishery management reform in Asia. Without climate change, most Asian fisheries stand to gain substantially from reforms. Optimizing fishery management could increase catch by 24% and profit by 34% over business-as-usual management. These benefits arise from fishing some stocks more conservatively and others more aggressively. Although climate change is expected to reduce carrying capacity in 55% of Asian fisheries, I find that under climate change large benefits from fishery management reform are maintained, though these benefits are heterogeneous. The case for reform remains strong for both catch and profit, though these numbers are slightly lower than in the no-climate change case. These results suggest that, to maximize economic output and food security, Asian fisheries will benefit substantially from the transition to catch shares or other economically rational fishery management institutions, despite the looming effects of climate change.
我研究了亚洲未来渔业管理改革对经济、生态和粮食安全的影响。如果没有气候变化,大多数亚洲渔业将从改革中获得巨大收益。优化渔业管理可以使捕获量比正常经营管理增加24%,利润增加34%。这些好处来自于更保守地捕捞一些鱼类和更积极地捕捞另一些鱼类。尽管气候变化预计会降低55%的亚洲渔业的承载能力,但我发现,在气候变化的情况下,渔业管理改革带来的巨大效益仍然存在,尽管这些效益是异质性的。尽管这些数字略低于没有气候变化的情况,但对捕获量和利润进行改革的理由仍然很充分。这些结果表明,为了最大限度地提高经济产出和粮食安全,亚洲渔业将从向捕捞份额或其他经济上合理的渔业管理制度的过渡中获益,尽管气候变化的影响迫在眉睫。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Asian Development Review
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