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Foreign Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Korea 韩国的汇率不确定性
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.2.375
S. Lee
Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty arising from unexpected depreciation has a stronger impact on Korea- U.S. exchange rates and that 2) macro variables, such as capital flows or interest rate differentials, have predictive ability regarding Korea FX uncertainty for short horizons. These findings enable us to predict the events of sudden currency crashes and understand the Korea-U.S. exchange rate dynamics.
我运用Ismailov和Rossi(2018),基于历史预测误差的密度分布,重新构建了韩国外汇的不确定性。该不确定性指数恰当地捕捉了韩国货币市场上罕见但重要的事件,并提供了与近期研究中其他不确定性指标不同的信息。我表明1)由意外贬值引起的外汇不确定性对韩美汇率的影响更大,2)宏观变量,如资本流动或利率差异,对短期内的韩国外汇不确定性具有预测能力。这些发现使我们能够预测货币突然崩溃的事件,并理解韩美关系。汇率动态。
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引用次数: 0
The Health Impact of, and access to, New Drugs in Korea 韩国新药对健康的影响和获取途径
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.2.374
F. Lichtenberg
We perform an econometric assessment of the role that pharmaceutical innovation— the introduction and use of new drugs—has played in improving the health of Koreans, by investigating whether diseases for which more new drugs were launched had larger subsequent increases in longevity and smaller subsequent increases in hospitalization. Drugs launched during 1993-2012 are estimated to have increased mean age at death from all diseases by 1.71 years between 1995 and 2015 and 1.09 years between 2005 and 2015. We also estimate that new drugs increased the five-year relative survival rate from all cancers combined by 23.2 percentage points—78.5% of the total increase—between 1993-1995 and 2011-2015, and that new drugs launched during 2008-2010 reduced the number of hospital days in 2017 by 13.0 million. If the drugs launched during 2003-2012 had had no effect on other medical expenditure in 2015, the cost per life-year gained would not have exceeded 6332 USD. Therefore, even if we ignore the effect of new drugs on hospital utilization, the drugs launched during 2003-2012 were very cost–effective, overall. When reduced hospital utilization is accounted for, the evidence indicates that, in the long run, pharmaceutical innovation was cost-saving as well as life-year saving.
我们对药物创新——新药的引入和使用——在改善韩国人健康方面所起的作用进行了计量经济学评估,方法是调查推出更多新药的疾病是否会导致更大的寿命延长和更小的住院增加。据估计,1993-2012年期间推出的药物在1995年至2015年期间使所有疾病的平均死亡年龄增加了1.71岁,在2005年至2015年间增加了1.09岁。我们还估计,在1993-1995年至2011-2015年间,新药使所有癌症的五年相对生存率提高了23.2个百分点,占总增长率的78.5%,2008-2010年推出的新药使2017年的住院天数减少了1300万。如果2003-2012年期间推出的药物对2015年的其他医疗支出没有影响,那么每生命年的成本就不会超过6332美元。因此,即使我们忽视了新药对医院使用的影响,2003-2012年推出的药物总体上是非常划算的。当考虑到医院利用率的降低时,有证据表明,从长远来看,药物创新既节省了生命年,也节省了成本。
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引用次数: 1
Connectedness among Northeast Asian Housing Markets and Business Cycles 东北亚房地产市场与经济周期的连通性
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.2.376
Hahn-Shik Lee, Woori Lee
This paper investigates the connectedness among housing markets using the methodology developed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2014, 2016). In particular, we examine the international linkages among housing markets in Northeast Asian countries: namely, China, Japan, and Korea. The basic finding is that connectedness measures vary over the business cycle, with a surge during the global financial crisis. However, the international linkages among the three Asian housing markets seem rather weak. By including GDP in the model, we also find that housing market in one country is more affected by its own economic conditions than that of neighboring countries. Given earlier evidence that cross-regional spillover among domestic housing markets is high, this result suggests that housing market connectedness is more of domestic cross-regional phenomena, rather than international ones.
本文使用Diebold和Yilmaz(2014年,2016年)开发的方法调查了住房市场之间的连通性。我们特别研究了东北亚国家(即中国、日本和韩国)房地产市场之间的国际联系。研究的基本发现是,连通性指标在不同的商业周期中有所不同,在全球金融危机期间,连通性指标飙升。然而,亚洲三个房地产市场之间的国际联系似乎相当薄弱。通过将GDP纳入模型,我们还发现一个国家的住房市场受本国经济状况的影响比邻国更大。鉴于先前的证据表明,国内住房市场的跨区域溢出性很高,这一结果表明,住房市场的连通性更多地是国内跨区域现象,而不是国际现象。
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引用次数: 1
Cross-Border Asset Pledgeability for Enhanced Financial Stability 加强金融稳定的跨境资产质押能力
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.1.373
Gongpil Choi
Even with the sizable Foreign Exchange (FX) holdings and good credit ratings of its top assets, Asia remains vulnerable to various shocks. This paper highlights the limited crossborder asset pledgeability as a significant factor for the lingering vulnerability in Asia. The dichotomy in asset holdings between pledgeable FX and non-pledgeable domestic assets in major economies in Asia has been the source of increasing stabilization costs as well as weakened market momentum in the region. Specifically, the peculiar feature of asset holdings in Asia reflects seriously deficient cross-border asset pledgeability that is left unaddressed. Asset pledgeability contributes toward financial stability via three channels: 1) capital market development by recognizing the role of collateral, 2) increased shock absorption capacity via collateral management, 3) and the newly activated safe asset provision. Therefore, it is crucial to go beyond the usual market development strategy and expand the overall asset pledgeability in the region that has remained unduly depressed.
即使拥有规模可观的外汇储备和顶级资产的良好信用评级,亚洲仍然容易受到各种冲击的影响。本文强调,有限的跨境资产质押能力是亚洲脆弱性持续存在的一个重要因素。亚洲主要经济体可质押的外汇和不可质押的国内资产之间的资产持有的二分法,是该地区稳定成本增加和市场动力减弱的根源。具体而言,亚洲资产持有的独特特征反映出,跨境资产质押能力严重不足,这一问题尚未得到解决。资产质押性通过三个渠道促进金融稳定:1)通过承认抵押品的作用来发展资本市场,2)通过抵押品管理提高减震能力,3)以及新激活的安全资产提供。因此,至关重要的是要超越通常的市场发展战略,扩大该地区的整体资产质押能力,该地区仍处于过度低迷状态。
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引用次数: 0
Global Value Chain in East Asia Under "New Normal": Ideology- Technology-Institution Nexus “新常态”下的东亚全球价值链:意识形态与技术制度的关系
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.1.370
Byung-il Choi
This paper analyzes how the current Global Value Chain (GVC) of East Asia has been established, and attempts to project the future trajectory of GVC under New Normal in the global trading system. For this purpose, the framework of Ideology-TechnologyInstitution nexus is presented with focus on the dynamics of interplay between ideology and technology, duly recognizing the dual-aspect of technology- a platform for business and also for national defense. The paper analyzes how the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) of the 1990s played a role of “facilitator” in shaping the GVC of East Asia, where China plays ‘factory for final assembly’ and the US plays ‘the largest consumer’. Under New Normal, digital technology is likely to play the opposite role of “disrupting” the GVC of East Asia, unlike ICT. The paper explores the mechanism behind this great disruption. What is driving New Normal is the US-China power competition, seeking for dominance in East Asia and beyond. This paper argues that New Normal is not temporary shock, but will last for some time. Under this presumption, the paper presents three scenarios for the future trajectory of GVC in East Asia.
本文分析了当前东亚地区全球价值链的形成过程,并试图预测全球贸易体系新常态下全球价值链的未来发展轨迹。为此,本文提出了意识形态-技术-制度联系的框架,重点关注意识形态与技术之间相互作用的动态,适当认识到技术的双重方面——商业平台和国防平台。本文分析了20世纪90年代的信息和通信技术(ICT)如何在塑造东亚全球价值链中发挥“推动者”的作用,在东亚,中国扮演“最终组装工厂”,美国扮演“最大消费者”。在新常态下,与信息通信技术不同,数字技术很可能扮演“颠覆”东亚全球价值链的相反角色。本文探讨了这种巨大破坏背后的机制。推动新常态的是中美力量竞争,谋求在东亚及其他地区的主导地位。本文认为,新常态的冲击不是暂时的,而是会持续一段时间的。在此假设下,本文提出了东亚全球价值链未来发展轨迹的三种情景。
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引用次数: 3
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Continuous-time Diffusion Models for Exchange Rates 汇率连续时间扩散模型的最大似然估计
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-03-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.1.372
Seungmoon Choi, Jaebum Lee
Five diffusion models are estimated using three different foreign exchange rates to find an appropriate model for each. Daily spot exchange rates expressed as the prices of 1 euro, 1 British pound and 100 Japanese yen in US dollars, respectively denoted by USD/EUR, USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY, are used. The maximum likelihood estimation method is implemented after deriving an approximate log-transition density function (log-TDF) of the diffusion processes because the true log-TDF is unknown. Of the five models, the most general model is the best fit for the USD/GBP, and USD/100JPY exchange rates, but it is not the case for the case of USD/EUR. Although we could not find any evidence of the mean-reverting property for the USD/EUR exchange rate, the USD/GBP, and USD/ 100JPY exchange rates show the mean-reversion behavior. Interestingly, the volatility function of the USD/EUR exchange rate is increasing in the exchange rate while the volatility functions of the USD/GBP and USD/100Yen exchange rates have a U-shape. Our results reveal that more care has to be taken when determining a diffusion model for the exchange rate. The results also imply that we may have to use a more general diffusion model than those proposed in the literature when developing economic theories for the behavior of the exchange rate and pricing foreign currency options or derivatives.
使用三种不同的外汇汇率估计了五种扩散模型,以找到适合每种模型的模型。每日的即期汇率用1欧元、1英镑和100日元兑换美元的价格表示,分别用USD/EUR、USD/GBP和USD/100JPY表示。最大似然估计方法是在导出扩散过程的近似对数转移密度函数(log-TDF)后实现的,因为真正的对数转移密度函数是未知的。在这五个模型中,最通用的模型最适合美元/英镑,美元/100日元的汇率,但美元/欧元的情况并非如此。虽然我们没有发现任何证据表明美元/欧元汇率具有均值回归性质,但美元/英镑和美元/ 100日元汇率显示出均值回归行为。有趣的是,美元/欧元汇率的波动函数在汇率中呈上升趋势,而美元/英镑和美元/100日元汇率的波动函数呈u型。我们的结果表明,在确定汇率的扩散模型时必须更加小心。研究结果还表明,在为汇率行为和外汇期权或衍生品定价制定经济理论时,我们可能不得不使用比文献中提出的更一般的扩散模型。
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引用次数: 0
Inspecting Driving Forces of Business Cycles in Korea 分析韩国经济周期的动力
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2019.23.4.369
Yongseung Jung
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引用次数: 0
Declining Fixed Investment and Increasing Financial Investment of Korean Corporations 韩国企业的固定投资减少,金融投资增加
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2019.23.4.367
Daehwan Kim, Sunhee Kwon, Jai-Won Ryou
This paper aims to determine factors causing the stagnation of Korean firms’ fixed investment after the global financial crisis, using panel data for the period of 1999-2016. Fixed investment remained sensitive to cash flow and Tobin’s q although their effects decreased after the global financial crisis. A decreasing trend of cash flow and an increase in Tobin’s q since the early 2000’s imply that the worsening cash flow was a major factor behind the sluggish investment after the crisis. Meanwhile, debt-equity ratio remained significant for non-chaebol affiliated firms, reflecting disparity in access to external financing. Volatility of stock returns also became insignificant after the crisis, casting doubt on the argument that uncertainty was a major factor contributing to the decline of fixed investment. Analysis of financial investment confirmed the significant effect of cash flow, larger than that on financial investment than on fixed investment. In particular, debt repayment and other financial investment, except share repurchase, were sensitive to cash flow. However, the substitution of fixed investment by financial investment is a consequence, rather than a cause of declining fixed investment.
本文旨在利用1999-2016年的面板数据,确定导致全球金融危机后韩国企业固定投资停滞的因素。固定投资对现金流和托宾q仍然敏感,尽管它们的影响在全球金融危机后有所减弱。2000年代初以来,现金流呈下降趋势,而托宾q值呈上升趋势,这表明现金流恶化是危机后投资低迷的主要原因。与此同时,非财阀附属公司的债务权益比率仍然很高,反映了获得外部融资的差异。在危机之后,股票收益的波动性也变得微不足道,这让人们对不确定性是导致固定投资下降的主要因素的观点产生了怀疑。对财务投资的分析证实了现金流量的显著影响,其对财务投资的影响大于固定投资。特别是债务偿还和其他金融投资,除股票回购外,对现金流量较为敏感。然而,金融投资替代固定投资是固定投资下降的结果,而不是原因。
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引用次数: 0
Cultural Exchange and Its Externalities on Korea-Africa Relations: How Does the Korean Wave Affect the Perception and Purchasing Behavior of African Consumers? 文化交流及其对韩非关系的外部性:韩流如何影响非洲消费者的认知和购买行为?
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2019.23.4.368
Haggai Kennedy Ochieng, Sungsoo Kim
The Korean wave has become a global phenomenon whose effect has been widely studied in Asia, Europe and the US. However the presumption of cultural distance makes it appear unlikely that the Korean wave could gain traction among African consumers of cultural products. As such, a dearth of evidence exists on the effects of the wave in Africa. This paper examines the effect of the wave in East African countries employing both descriptive and Probit model analyses. The results show that, contrary to conventional beliefs, most Africans surveyed perceive value proximity with Korea through the values conveyed in Korean dramas, movies and music. Confucius values, such as filial piety, family love and respect for the elderly are the most appealing to the East African audience. Importantly, contact with Korean wave contents contributes to the respondents’ disposition to form favorable attitude towards Korea. The African consumers of Korea’s cultural products are equally likely to purchase other Korean commercial products. These results remotely suggest that Hallyu may be a tool for advancing Korea’s soft power towards Africa and could generate positive economic externalities.
韩流已经成为一种全球现象,其影响在亚洲、欧洲和美国得到了广泛的研究。然而,文化距离的假设使得韩流似乎不太可能在非洲文化产品消费者中获得牵引力。因此,关于海啸对非洲的影响缺乏证据。本文采用描述性和Probit模型分析来检验这一浪潮对东非国家的影响。结果显示,与传统观念相反,大多数接受调查的非洲人通过韩国电视剧、电影和音乐所传达的价值观来感知与韩国的价值观接近。孔子的价值观,如孝道、爱家、尊老是最吸引东非观众的。重要的是,接触韩流内容有助于受访者倾向于形成对韩国的好感。购买韩国文化产品的非洲消费者购买其他韩国商业产品的可能性是一样的。这些结果远表明,韩流可能是提高韩国对非洲软实力的工具,并可能产生积极的经济外部性。
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引用次数: 0
Data-Mining Bootstrap Procedure with Potential Predictors in Forecasting Models: Evidence from Eight Countries in the Asia-Pacific Stock Markets 预测模型中具有潜在预测因子的数据挖掘自举程序:来自亚太八个国家股票市场的证据
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-31 DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2019.23.4.366
Hojin Lee
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引用次数: 0
期刊
East Asian Economic Review
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