Pub Date : 2021-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.400
Baran Han
{"title":"Strategic Portfolio Building in Donors’ Multilateral Institutional Choice","authors":"Baran Han","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.400","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48235679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.402
Sangil Bae,Minsoo Jeong
{"title":"Forecasting KOSPI Return Using a Modified Stochastic AdaBoosting","authors":"Sangil Bae,Minsoo Jeong","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.402","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"14 4","pages":"403-424"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.401
Yongseung Jung
{"title":"Fiscal Policy and Redistribution in a Small Open Economy with Aging Population","authors":"Yongseung Jung","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.401","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.4.401","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42638159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.2.395
Jae Wook Jung,Kyunghun Kim
Over the past decades, financial markets have been integrated across countries while income inequality has increased in most countries. This paper studies the effect of financial market integration on income inequality and investigates whether this effect varies with the degree of financial market development. We find empirical evidence that financial market integration and financial market development interact to change income inequality. Specifically, the effect of financial market integration on income inequality is nonlinear, and the degree of financial market development plays an important role. Opening financial markets worsens income inequality in the countries holding the underdeveloped state of financial markets, however, the effect of capital account openness on income inequality is statistically insignificant in the countries with developed financial markets.
{"title":"Financial Market Integration and Income Inequality","authors":"Jae Wook Jung,Kyunghun Kim","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.2.395","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2021.25.2.395","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past decades, financial markets have been integrated across countries while income inequality has increased in most countries. This paper studies the effect of financial market integration on income inequality and investigates whether this effect varies with the degree of financial market development. We find empirical evidence that financial market integration and financial market development interact to change income inequality. Specifically, the effect of financial market integration on income inequality is nonlinear, and the degree of financial market development plays an important role. Opening financial markets worsens income inequality in the countries holding the underdeveloped state of financial markets, however, the effect of capital account openness on income inequality is statistically insignificant in the countries with developed financial markets.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"1 3","pages":"175-203"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.385
Sébastien Miroudot
This paper provides empirical evidence on the reorganization of GVCs in East Asia, highlighting that structural trends explain a decrease in the fragmentation of production after 2011 but that it is not the result of rising trade costs along the value chain Using harmonized inter-country input-output tables, the paper first analyzes the global import intensity of production to document changes in the structure of GVCs It then calculates theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for intermediate and final products using an approach derived from the gravity literature and introduces a new index of cumulative trade costs along the value chain These data are used to discuss whether the decrease in global imports is the consequence of shifts in demand, efficiency-enhancing strategies of firms or rising trade costs Between 2011 and 2016, cumulative trade costs have decreased in East Asian GVCs However, as COVID-19 is likely to intensify trade and investment uncertainties, trade costs could increase in the future Policies aimed at reducing uncertainties and preserving the gains from trade and investment liberalization will be key in this new environment
{"title":"The Reorganization of Global Value Chains in East Asia before and after COVID-19","authors":"Sébastien Miroudot","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.385","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.385","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides empirical evidence on the reorganization of GVCs in East Asia, highlighting that structural trends explain a decrease in the fragmentation of production after 2011 but that it is not the result of rising trade costs along the value chain Using harmonized inter-country input-output tables, the paper first analyzes the global import intensity of production to document changes in the structure of GVCs It then calculates theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for intermediate and final products using an approach derived from the gravity literature and introduces a new index of cumulative trade costs along the value chain These data are used to discuss whether the decrease in global imports is the consequence of shifts in demand, efficiency-enhancing strategies of firms or rising trade costs Between 2011 and 2016, cumulative trade costs have decreased in East Asian GVCs However, as COVID-19 is likely to intensify trade and investment uncertainties, trade costs could increase in the future Policies aimed at reducing uncertainties and preserving the gains from trade and investment liberalization will be key in this new environment","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"4 1","pages":"389-416"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.386
Martín Uribe
The coronavirus pandemic of 2019-20 confronted fiscally dominant regimes around the world with the question of whether the large deficits caused by the health crisis should be monetized or financed by issuing debt The unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981) states that in a fiscally dominant regime tighter money now can cause higher inflation in the future In spite of the qualifier 'unpleasant,' this result is positive in nature, and, therefore, void of normative content I analyze conditions under which it is optimal in a welfare sense for the central bank to delay inflation by issuing debt to finance part of the fiscal deficit The analysis is conducted in the context of a model in which the aforementioned monetarist arithmetic holds, in the sense that if the government finds it optimal to delay inflation, it does so knowing that it would result in higher inflation in the future The central result of the paper is that delaying inflation is optimal when the fiscal deficit is expected to decline over time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of East Asian Economic Review (EAER) is the property of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )
{"title":"Financing COVID-19 Deficits in Fiscally Dominant Economies: Is The Monetarist Arithmetic Unpleasant?","authors":"Martín Uribe","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.386","url":null,"abstract":"The coronavirus pandemic of 2019-20 confronted fiscally dominant regimes around the world with the question of whether the large deficits caused by the health crisis should be monetized or financed by issuing debt The unpleasant monetarist arithmetic of Sargent and Wallace (1981) states that in a fiscally dominant regime tighter money now can cause higher inflation in the future In spite of the qualifier 'unpleasant,' this result is positive in nature, and, therefore, void of normative content I analyze conditions under which it is optimal in a welfare sense for the central bank to delay inflation by issuing debt to finance part of the fiscal deficit The analysis is conducted in the context of a model in which the aforementioned monetarist arithmetic holds, in the sense that if the government finds it optimal to delay inflation, it does so knowing that it would result in higher inflation in the future The central result of the paper is that delaying inflation is optimal when the fiscal deficit is expected to decline over time [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of East Asian Economic Review (EAER) is the property of Korea Institute for International Economic Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":" 48","pages":"417-440"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138494438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.388
Joshua Aizenman,Hiro Ito
{"title":"U.S. Macro Policies and Global Economic Challenges","authors":"Joshua Aizenman,Hiro Ito","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.388","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"344 1","pages":"469-495"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138516890","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-31DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.387
Xiang Gao, Z. Gu, K. Koedijk
Capital inflows have a strong presence that influences destination countries' development of institutions, which can in turn help resuscitate a stopped economy and re-attract capital that was lost during crises such as the recent public health crisis While the previous literature emphasizes the mechanism that foreign investors press or even threaten the local government for change, this paper explores empirically whether institutional improvement can be achieved through the channel that host countries voluntarily reform institutions in anticipation of potential investments predicted by the exogenous geographical and cultural characteristics of the recipient countries Given that countries with better institutional quality can accumulate larger FDI stocks, we still find that the need for more FDI, in contrast to FPI and debt, gives higher incentives to host countries to strategically improve their institutions before seeking capital overseas Moreover, the predicted FDI exerts more prominent impacts on institutions on constraining elite than those involved in launching a business, enforcing contracts, and protecting properties The results imply that a long-run plan for upgrading elite constraint institutions is crucial for a post-pandemic FDI reboot
{"title":"On the Role of Projected FDI Inflows in Shaping Institutions","authors":"Xiang Gao, Z. Gu, K. Koedijk","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.387","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.387","url":null,"abstract":"Capital inflows have a strong presence that influences destination countries' development of institutions, which can in turn help resuscitate a stopped economy and re-attract capital that was lost during crises such as the recent public health crisis While the previous literature emphasizes the mechanism that foreign investors press or even threaten the local government for change, this paper explores empirically whether institutional improvement can be achieved through the channel that host countries voluntarily reform institutions in anticipation of potential investments predicted by the exogenous geographical and cultural characteristics of the recipient countries Given that countries with better institutional quality can accumulate larger FDI stocks, we still find that the need for more FDI, in contrast to FPI and debt, gives higher incentives to host countries to strategically improve their institutions before seeking capital overseas Moreover, the predicted FDI exerts more prominent impacts on institutions on constraining elite than those involved in launching a business, enforcing contracts, and protecting properties The results imply that a long-run plan for upgrading elite constraint institutions is crucial for a post-pandemic FDI reboot","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"441-468"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48398956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.381
Alan V. Deardorff, Soyoung Kim, Chul Chung
[ ]trade and financial integration/globalization tend to have a positive correlation, as documented in some past studies [ ]the size of outstanding crossborder assets and liabilities is huge, as a result of financial transactions made in past decades [ ]some reversals in capital flows seen during COVID-19 will not affect the size of cross-border assets and liabilities in a major way [ ]financial globalization may help to slow down the de-globalization of trade after COVID-19 [ ]on dispute resolution, Hoekman does not need to remind us of the current sad state of the Dispute Settlement Understanding, and his main suggestion here is that reforms not be limited to only fixing the Appellate Body, but rather should include improving the panel process, though he does not say how to do that
{"title":"The Global Economy after COVID-19","authors":"Alan V. Deardorff, Soyoung Kim, Chul Chung","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.381","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.4.381","url":null,"abstract":"[ ]trade and financial integration/globalization tend to have a positive correlation, as documented in some past studies [ ]the size of outstanding crossborder assets and liabilities is huge, as a result of financial transactions made in past decades [ ]some reversals in capital flows seen during COVID-19 will not affect the size of cross-border assets and liabilities in a major way [ ]financial globalization may help to slow down the de-globalization of trade after COVID-19 [ ]on dispute resolution, Hoekman does not need to remind us of the current sad state of the Dispute Settlement Understanding, and his main suggestion here is that reforms not be limited to only fixing the Appellate Body, but rather should include improving the panel process, though he does not say how to do that","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"305-312"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43930868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-30DOI: 10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.3.377
Oded Stark, Grzegorz Kosiorowski
Acknowledging that individuals dislike having low relative income renders trade less attractive when seen as a technology that integrates two economies by merging separate social spheres into one. We define a “trembling trade” as a situation in which gains from trade are less than losses in relative income, with the result that global social welfare is reduced. We show that a “trembling trade” can arise even when trade is more gainful in four ways: through trade the absolute income of everyone increases, the income gap in both economies is reduced, as is the income gap between the trading economies. However, trade brings populations, economies, or markets that were not previously connected closer together in social space. As a consequence, separate social spheres merge, and people’s social space and their comparators are altered. Assuming that people like high (absolute) income and dislike low relative income, the aggregate increase in unhappiness caused by the trade-induced escalation in relative deprivation can result in a negative overall impact of trade on (utilitarian-measured) social welfare, if the absolute income gains are not large enough to mitigate the relative income losses.
{"title":"An Adverse Social Welfare Effect of Quadruply Gainful Trade","authors":"Oded Stark, Grzegorz Kosiorowski","doi":"10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.3.377","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11644/kiep.eaer.2020.24.3.377","url":null,"abstract":"Acknowledging that individuals dislike having low relative income renders trade less attractive when seen as a technology that integrates two economies by merging separate social spheres into one. We define a “trembling trade” as a situation in which gains from trade are less than losses in relative income, with the result that global social welfare is reduced. We show that a “trembling trade” can arise even when trade is more gainful in four ways: through trade the absolute income of everyone increases, the income gap in both economies is reduced, as is the income gap between the trading economies. However, trade brings populations, economies, or markets that were not previously connected closer together in social space. As a consequence, separate social spheres merge, and people’s social space and their comparators are altered. Assuming that people like high (absolute) income and dislike low relative income, the aggregate increase in unhappiness caused by the trade-induced escalation in relative deprivation can result in a negative overall impact of trade on (utilitarian-measured) social welfare, if the absolute income gains are not large enough to mitigate the relative income losses.","PeriodicalId":41122,"journal":{"name":"East Asian Economic Review","volume":"5 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138496286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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