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High Frequency Traders: Angels or Devils? 高频交易者:天使还是魔鬼?
Pub Date : 2013-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2340673
Jeffrey G. MacIntosh
High frequency trading (HFT) is taking world capital markets by storm, notably in the United States and the United Kingdom, where it accounted for about 50 percent of equities trading in 2012, and to a growing extent in other parts of Europe and in Canada. Are high frequency traders angels or devils in terms of the impact on capital markets? Critics claim the latter and charge that they put retail and institutional investors at a disadvantage. Critics also blame high frequency trading for the “flash crash” on the Dow of May 6 2010 and say it has increased the likelihood of such events happening again. A closer examination of these views is in order. In this Commentary, I first look at what HF traders do and how HFT differs from traditional market making. I then explore the empirical evidence relating to the effect of HFT on capital markets, and canvass the policy issues that HFT raises. In the final section, I list some recommendations for policymakers with respect to HFT. After surveying empirical studies of HFT, I conclude that it enhances market quality. For example, it lowers bid/ask spreads, reduces volatility, improves short-term price discovery, and creates competitive pressures that reduce broker commissions. Despite being at a pronounced speed disadvantage, retail traders have realized a net gain from the presence of HF traders in the world’s capital markets. Maintain the Order Protection Rule and Contain the Spread of Dark Pools: To prevent abusive trading practices, protect client interests, and create a level playing field among different trading venues, policymakers should defend the consolidated order book by maintaining and policing the order protection rule and minimizing the leakage of trading from the “lit” markets to “dark pools.” Do Not Interfere with Maker/Taker Pricing Models: Some observers say maker/taker pricing raises higher trading costs for retail traders, because retail trade orders are typically on the active side of the market, and associated fees are passed on to customers. However, retail traders are about as likely to be on the active as the passive side of the market. Maker/taker pricing may raise costs on the margin, but also lowers bid/ask spreads. Focus on Circuit Breakers to Prevent “Flash Crashes”: HF traders did not cause the “flash crash,” and instead supply liquidity when markets become volatile. Canadian regulators concerned with preventing similar events should focus on circuit breakers to stop market anomalies before they turn into “flash crashes.”
高频交易(HFT)正在席卷全球资本市场,尤其是在美国和英国,2012年高频交易约占两国股票交易的50%,在欧洲其他地区和加拿大,高频交易的规模也在不断扩大。就对资本市场的影响而言,高频交易员是天使还是魔鬼?批评人士认为是后者,并指责他们将散户和机构投资者置于不利地位。批评人士还将2010年5月6日道指的“闪电崩盘”归咎于高频交易,并称这增加了此类事件再次发生的可能性。有必要对这些观点进行更仔细的研究。在这篇评论中,我首先看看高频交易者做什么,以及高频交易与传统做市商有何不同。然后,我探讨了与高频交易对资本市场的影响有关的经验证据,并仔细研究了高频交易引发的政策问题。在最后一节中,我为政策制定者列出了一些关于高频交易的建议。在调查了高频交易的实证研究后,我得出了高频交易能提高市场质量的结论。例如,它降低了买卖价差,减少了波动性,改善了短期价格发现,并创造了减少经纪人佣金的竞争压力。尽管在速度上处于明显的劣势,但在全球资本市场上,高频交易员的存在使零售交易员实现了净收益。维持订单保护规则并遏制黑池的蔓延:为了防止滥用交易行为,保护客户利益,并在不同的交易场所之间创造一个公平的竞争环境,政策制定者应该通过维持和监管订单保护规则来捍卫统一的订单簿,并最大限度地减少从“亮”市场到“暗池”的交易泄漏。不要干扰创客/接受者定价模式:一些观察人士表示,创客/接受者定价会提高零售交易者的交易成本,因为零售交易订单通常处于市场的活跃端,相关费用会转嫁给客户。然而,在市场上,散户交易员积极的可能性与被动的可能性差不多。制造商/接受者定价可能会提高边际成本,但也会降低买卖价差。关注熔断机制以防止“闪电崩盘”:高频交易员不会造成“闪电崩盘”,而是在市场波动时提供流动性。关注防止类似事件发生的加拿大监管机构应该把重点放在熔断机制上,在市场异常演变为“闪电崩盘”之前阻止它们。
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引用次数: 15
Venture Capital and Risk Management: Evidence from Initial Public Offerings 风险资本与风险管理:来自首次公开募股的证据
Pub Date : 2013-09-22 DOI: 10.22495/RGCV2I1ART4
C. Bamford, Edward B. Douthett
This study analyzes a sample of initial public offerings (IPOs) to examine the sources of firm-specific risk associated with investment by venture capitalists. The results indicate that IPO backing by venture capitalists is associated with risk factors related to operating profit margins and ongoing sales generation, but not operational financing. The results also indicate that venture-backed IPOs are associated with greater reductions in firm-specific risk over the course of a year that includes the date of the IPO. In sum, the findings suggest venture capitalists are willing to accept higher levels of risk in those instances where they might have an advantage in terms of managerial skill or are able to reduce firm-specific risk subsequent to investment in order to maximize returns when they cash out. The study also makes use of proxies that are representative of the ex-ante nature of firm-specific risk at the time of a new issue.
本研究分析了首次公开募股(ipo)的样本,以检验与风险资本家投资相关的公司特定风险的来源。结果表明,风险资本家对IPO的支持与经营利润率和持续销售额相关的风险因素有关,但与经营融资无关。研究结果还表明,在包括IPO日期在内的一年内,风险投资支持的IPO与公司特有风险的大幅降低有关。总而言之,研究结果表明,风险资本家愿意接受更高水平的风险,因为他们在管理技能方面可能有优势,或者能够在投资后降低公司特有的风险,以便在套现时获得最大回报。该研究还利用了代表新发行时公司特定风险的事前性质的代理。
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引用次数: 3
Using Information Markets in Grantmaking: An Assessment of the Issues Involved and an Application to Italian Banking Foundations 在资助中使用信息市场:对所涉问题的评估及对意大利银行基金会的应用
Pub Date : 2013-09-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2327459
E. Gaffeo
The likelihood of success of grantmaking on large scale projects depends in general on pieces of information widely dispersed and privately held by recipients, public agencies, nongovernmental organizations and other interested parties. In this paper we discuss how philanthropists could eA‚¬A‚¨A¢E†AiAƒÂ¼ectively make use of suitably designed information markets to help them gathering dispersed knowledge and beliefs on the potential for social impact of innovative projects on the one hand, and in supporting the deliberation process regarding the allocation of grants on the other one.
对大型项目的资助能否成功,一般取决于受助者、公共机构、非政府组织和其他有关方面广泛传播和私人持有的信息。在本文中,我们讨论了慈善家如何有效地利用设计合理的信息市场,一方面帮助他们收集关于创新项目潜在社会影响的分散知识和信念,另一方面支持关于拨款分配的审议过程。
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引用次数: 7
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Major Potential Revenue Opportunity for Digital Payments 撒哈拉以南非洲:数字支付的主要潜在收入机会
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2298244
J. Kendall, R. Schiff, E. Smadja
Mobile financial services — often called mobile money — are a high priority for many mobile operators, financial institutions, technology firms and governments. In regions where financial inclusion is limited, such as sub- Saharan Africa (SSA), mobile money promises a lower-cost, more scalable alternative to traditional banking. Yet, despite high interest levels in SSA markets, there have been few success stories to date. This is partly due to uncertainty about whether Kenya — where M-Pesa has become one of the few mobile money success stories — is unique, or whether the potential for mobile payments in other markets is similarly robust. To cast some light on the opportunity, this article attempts to quantify some of the many highpotential payments flows in this rapidly evolving region, and to estimate the associated revenue pools.
移动金融服务——通常被称为移动货币——是许多移动运营商、金融机构、科技公司和政府的重中之重。在金融包容性有限的地区,如撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA),移动货币有望成为传统银行的一种成本更低、规模更大的替代方案。然而,尽管对SSA市场的兴趣很高,迄今为止却很少有成功的案例。这在一定程度上是由于肯尼亚的不确定性——M-Pesa已成为少数几个移动支付成功案例之一——是否独一无二,或者其他市场的移动支付潜力是否同样强劲。为了阐明这一机遇,本文试图量化这一快速发展地区的一些高潜力支付流,并估计相关的收入池。
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引用次数: 17
Increasing the Number of Crowdfunding Technological Investment Opportunities in Your Local Small Business Economy 增加当地小企业经济中众筹技术投资机会的数量
Pub Date : 2013-08-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2308932
Laurie Thomas Vass
At the State Science & Technology Institute's September conference in Portland, Thomas Vass, of the Private Capital Market, Inc., is going to address the conference on how the new Regulation D 506(c) rules can promote regional economic growth. His presentation is titled “How Economic Developers Can Fill The Crowdfunding Capital Market Gaps In Regional Innovation Ecosystems: Economic Developers Can Manage The Regional Deal Flow Pipeline.” The third part of his presentation presents a mental map for economic developers on where to look for crowdfunding investment opportunities in their home communities.
9月在波特兰举行的国家科学技术研究所会议上,私人资本市场公司的Thomas Vass将在会议上就新的法规d506 (c)规则如何促进区域经济增长发表讲话。他的演讲题目是“经济开发商如何填补区域创新生态系统中的众筹资本市场空白:经济开发商可以管理区域交易流管道。”他的演讲的第三部分为经济开发商提供了一幅心理地图,告诉他们在自己的社区哪里可以找到众筹投资机会。
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引用次数: 0
Web Sentiment Analysis for Revealing Public Opinions, Trends and Making Good Financial Decisions 网络情感分析揭示公众意见,趋势和作出良好的财务决策
Pub Date : 2013-07-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2309375
Cristian Bissattini, K. Christodoulou
This study attempts to discover and analyze the predictive power of stock messages, posting on financial message boards, on future stock price directional movements. We construct a set of robust models based on sentiment analysis and data mining algorithms. Our dataset consist of 447,393 messages, on the 30 Dow Jones Index (DJIA) stocks, posted on the Yahoo! Finance message board in the period August 2012 to May 2013, of which 55,217 with sentiment tag and 5,967 distinct authors. We propose a novel way to generate sentiment based on author’s credibility, calculated on accuracy of his past messages. Our results provide empirical evidence that, using our method (3 and 5 scale index models), there is strong and useful information on financial message boards pertinent to stock market movements. In addition, we demonstrate that we can use this information in order to make accurate predictions about the return on investment and to implement good trading strategies based on sentiment analysis, doing, on average, much better than traditional investment strategies like Buy and Hold or Moving Averages (5-20 periods). Our results appear to be statistically and economically significant. Theory that suggests a link between small investor behavior and stock market performance is now supported by our work.
本研究试图发现并分析金融留言板上的股票信息对未来股价走势的预测能力。我们构建了一套基于情感分析和数据挖掘算法的鲁棒模型。我们的数据集由447,393条消息组成,这些消息是关于30只道琼斯指数(DJIA)股票的,发布在雅虎!2012年8月至2013年5月期间的财经留言板,其中55217个带有情感标签,5967个不同的作者。我们提出了一种基于作者可信度的新方法来产生情感,该可信度是根据作者过去信息的准确性来计算的。我们的结果提供了经验证据,使用我们的方法(3和5尺度指数模型),在与股市走势相关的金融留言板上有强大而有用的信息。此外,我们证明了我们可以使用这些信息来对投资回报做出准确的预测,并基于情绪分析实施良好的交易策略,平均而言,比传统的投资策略(如买入并持有或移动平均线(5-20周期))要好得多。我们的结果似乎在统计学和经济学上都很重要。认为小投资者行为与股市表现之间存在联系的理论现在得到了我们工作的支持。
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引用次数: 13
Risk Management in Banking Industry 银行业风险管理
Pub Date : 2013-06-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2280369
S. Dhar
Rising global competition, increasing deregulation, introduction of innovative products and delivery channels have pushed risk management to the forefront of today’s banking. Ability to predict risks and take appropriate position is the key to success. It can be said that risk takers will survive, effective risk managers will prosper and risk averse are likely to perish. In the regulated banking environment, banks had to primarily deal with credit or default risk. As the economy move into a perfect market economy, it has to deal with a whole range of market related risks like exchange risks, interest rate risk, etc. Operational risk, which had always existed in the system, would become more pronounced in the coming days as we have technology as a new factor in today’s banking. Traditional risk management techniques become obsolete with the growth of derivatives and off-balance sheet operations, coupled with diversification. The expansion in E-banking will lead to continuous vigilance and revisions of regulations.
日益激烈的全球竞争、越来越多的放松管制、创新产品和交付渠道的引入,已将风险管理推到了当今银行业的最前沿。预测风险并采取适当立场的能力是成功的关键。可以说,冒险者将生存,有效的风险管理者将繁荣,风险厌恶者可能会灭亡。在受监管的银行环境中,银行不得不主要处理信用或违约风险。随着经济走向完善的市场经济,它必须处理一系列与市场相关的风险,如汇率风险、利率风险等。系统中一直存在的操作风险,在未来的日子里会变得更加明显,因为我们把技术作为当今银行业的一个新因素。随着衍生品和表外业务的增长,再加上多样化,传统的风险管理技术已经过时。电子银行的扩张将导致持续的警惕和法规的修订。
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引用次数: 0
The Future of Financial Engineering 金融工程的未来
Pub Date : 2013-05-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2259232
C. Tapiero
Convergence of financial theory and practice heralded by the seminal and fundamental economic research by Arrow and Debreu in the early 1950’s has led in the hands of financial engineers to an extraordinary financial innovation in the 70’s and ever since. The theoretical ability to price future assets has led to an explosive growth of financial trading, liquidity and to the growth of finance and its citadels. Options and credit derivative markets, securitization of non or partially liquid assets have provided extraordinary opportunities to “unearth” frozen assets for trade and profit. The 2007-2009 financial crisis has evoked a greater awareness that traditional financial dogma is based on assumptions that have become increasingly difficult to justify. Globalization, the growth of "Too Big To Fail" (TBTF) firms, insiders trading, information and power asymmetries and the growth of regulation have, among other factors, conspired to render the assumption of complete markets to be unsustainable. Deviant behaviors in financial markets, non-transparency of transactions, complexity and dependence on a global scale have created a fragile and contagious global economy, where systemic risks are no longer an exception but a permanent threat. By the same token, the explosive growth of information and data fueled by the internet and social media as well as an IT has created far greater dependence of financial systems and institutions on Information Technology (IT) emphasizing information as assets they seek to use for both financial management and competitive advantage. Technology, engineering and financial trends and developments have combined to yield an extraordinary growth of complexity, regulation and globalization, providing new opportunities and risks and undermine the traditional model based approaches to finance.The purposes of this paper are to outline a number of factors, economic or otherwise that undermine the finance’s fundamental theories, their practice, regulation and their implications to the future of finance. In particular, we emphasize a strategic and multi-polar finance, beset by complexity, chaos and countervailing forces leading a multi-agent finance, computational and financial data-analytics driven rather than simple risk models of uncertainty.A number of pricing models based on a strategic finance and a micro-matching of economic and financial states are also summarized and their practical implications drawn. In addition, topics such as Big Data finance and multi-agent financial modeling are outlined to provide elements for future theoretical and practical developments. This paper is a work in progress and therefore its intent is to attract greater attention to some elements (however selective and partial) that would contribute to potential transformations of a financial engineering future.
20世纪50年代初,阿罗和德布鲁开创性的基础经济研究预示着金融理论与实践的融合,这一趋势在金融工程师手中引领了70年代及以后非凡的金融创新。为未来资产定价的理论能力导致了金融交易和流动性的爆炸式增长,也促进了金融及其堡垒的增长。期权和信用衍生品市场,非或部分流动资产的证券化,为“挖掘”冻结资产进行交易和获利提供了绝佳的机会。2007-2009年的金融危机让人们更加意识到,传统的金融教条是建立在越来越难以证明其合理性的假设之上的。全球化、“大到不能倒”(TBTF)公司的增长、内幕交易、信息和权力不对称以及监管的增长,以及其他因素,共同使完全市场的假设变得不可持续。金融市场的越轨行为、交易的不透明、复杂性和对全球规模的依赖,造就了一个脆弱且具有传染性的全球经济,在这个经济中,系统性风险不再是例外,而是一种永久的威胁。同样,由互联网和社交媒体以及IT推动的信息和数据的爆炸式增长,使金融系统和机构对信息技术(IT)的依赖程度大大提高,强调信息是他们寻求用于财务管理和竞争优势的资产。技术、工程和金融趋势与发展相结合,产生了复杂性、监管和全球化的非凡增长,提供了新的机遇和风险,并破坏了传统的基于模式的金融方法。本文的目的是概述一些因素,经济或其他方面,破坏金融的基本理论,他们的实践,监管及其对金融未来的影响。我们特别强调战略和多极金融,受复杂性、混乱和相互抵消力量的困扰,导致多主体金融、计算和金融数据分析驱动,而不是简单的不确定性风险模型。本文还总结了一些基于战略金融和经济金融微观匹配的定价模型,并指出了它们的实际意义。此外,还概述了大数据金融和多主体金融建模等主题,为未来的理论和实践发展提供要素。本文是一项正在进行的工作,因此其目的是吸引人们更多地关注一些因素(无论选择性和局部性),这些因素将有助于金融工程未来的潜在转变。
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引用次数: 1
The Influence of Material Resources on Innovation Projects: The Role of Resource Elasticity 物质资源对创新项目的影响:资源弹性的作用
Pub Date : 2013-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/radm.12007
M. Weiss, M. Hoegl, M. Gibbert
More (rather than fewer) material resources are thought to be the key driver in innovation project performance. Recent empirical evidence, however, suggests that the influence of material resource availability on innovation projects is not as simple and straightforwardly positive as it may seem. We build on the concept of an innovation project team's resource elasticity to disentangle the material resource–innovation output conundrum. This concept is analogous to the marketing concept of price elasticity and points to four types of innovation project teams based on their resource elasticity: In resource‐elastic teams, the relationship between material resources and innovation outcomes is positive (hence, they are ‘resource driven’ when able to dispose of adequate material resources or ‘resource victims’ when lacking these material resources). In contrast, and as a significant departure from previous work, resource‐inelastic teams show no or even a negative relationship between material resource adequacy and team performance (thus, the teams are ‘resourceful’ if they can perform with limited material resources or ‘resource burners’ if they show low success with adequate material resources). Because neither adequate nor inadequate material resources seem to be a reliable predictor of success, we synthesize empirical research efforts that point to each team type's key characteristics to derive novel implications for managing innovation projects.
更多(而不是更少)的材料资源被认为是创新项目绩效的关键驱动因素。然而,最近的经验证据表明,物质资源可用性对创新项目的影响并不像看起来那么简单和直接。我们建立在创新项目团队的资源弹性的概念来解开物质资源-创新产出难题。这个概念类似于价格弹性的市场营销概念,并根据其资源弹性指出了四种类型的创新项目团队:在资源弹性团队中,物质资源与创新成果之间的关系是正的(因此,当能够处理足够的物质资源时,他们是“资源驱动型”,而当缺乏这些物质资源时,他们是“资源受害者”)。与此相反,资源非弹性团队在物质资源充足性和团队绩效之间没有表现出甚至是负相关关系(因此,如果团队能够在有限的物质资源下完成任务,那么他们就是“资源丰富的”;如果团队在足够的物质资源下表现出低的成功,那么他们就是“资源消耗者”)。由于充足或不足的物质资源似乎都不是成功的可靠预测因素,我们综合了实证研究成果,指出了每种团队类型的关键特征,以得出管理创新项目的新含义。
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引用次数: 18
A Practical Real Options Approach to Valuing High Frequency Trading System R&D Projects 高频交易系统研发项目评估的实用实物期权方法
Pub Date : 2013-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2327201
A. Kumiega, Ben Van Vliet
In the age of automation, trading and market making is about estimating the fair price of automated trading system research and development projects. This requires a new methodology to arrive at such a fair price. A real options framework is a natural choice. In this paper we review a methodology for automated trading system R&D and present a practical real option model for valuing such projects so as to enable rapid strategy cycling.
在自动化时代,交易和做市是关于评估自动化交易系统研发项目的公平价格。这需要一种新的方法来得出如此公平的价格。实物期权框架是一种自然的选择。在本文中,我们回顾了自动交易系统研发的方法,并提出了一个实用的实物期权模型来评估这些项目,以便实现快速的策略循环。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
IRPN: Innovation & Finance (Topic)
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