High-intensity forest fires have significant destructive impacts on ecosystems and society, and are an increasing concern worldwide. Accurate probabilistic risk assessment of these fires can effectively enhance the ability to guide wildfire management, particularly for large and extreme fires. However, forecasting large-scale fire behavior characteristics remains challenging, limiting the effectiveness of spatial estimations of high-intensity forest fire potential (HIFFP). This study aims to integrate fire spread simulations and machine learning (ML) algorithms to enhance HIFFP estimations through multi-step time-series forecasting on fire rate of spread and fireline intensity at regional scales. We first established a high-intensity forest fire dataset based on remote sensing-informed fire spread simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled fire-spread model (WRF-SFIRE), incorporating explanatory variables on fuel, weather, climate, and topography. Then, the knowledge-guided framework (multi-step time series-based ML, MTS-ML) was designed to estimate HIFFP within different hours after fires occur, integrating with Bayesian Network (BN), Random Forest (RF), and copula models. Results indicate that MTS-ML improved HIFFP modeling compared with ML-based methods, achieving AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) > 0.95 (with ∼0.04 increments), F1 score > 0.85 (with ∼0.08 increments), and MAE < 0.15. Topographic index, foliage fuel load, and wind speed are identified as primary contributors to HIFFP. Probabilistic mapping of HIFFP represents wildfire danger, which is closely linked to burn severity and fire-induced carbon emissions. This study presents a novel framework for enhancing regional risk assessment of high-intensity forest fires, providing valuable guidance in wildfire control and management.
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