Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004167
M. A. Hudson, O. Capps
Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S. blue crab fishery , this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric, and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight. Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies , and consequently, better forecasts occur with time-series models than with econometric models.
{"title":"Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods","authors":"M. A. Hudson, O. Capps","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004167","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004167","url":null,"abstract":"Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S. blue crab fishery , this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric, and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight. Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies , and consequently, better forecasts occur with time-series models than with econometric models.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"83 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130371603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004003
L. Tauer
This study empirically compares the retirement values of dairy farm investments to tax-deferred retirement investments that are funded with bank certificates of deposit or common stock. For a successful dairy farm, the results indicate that tax-deferred retirement plans that generate rates of return similar to certificates of deposit or common stock mutual funds are probably not as good an investment as reinvesting farm earnings back into the farm business.
{"title":"An Empirical Analysis of Dairy Farm Reinvestment Versus Tax-Deferred Plans for Retirement Income","authors":"L. Tauer","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004003","url":null,"abstract":"This study empirically compares the retirement values of dairy farm investments to tax-deferred retirement investments that are funded with bank certificates of deposit or common stock. For a successful dairy farm, the results indicate that tax-deferred retirement plans that generate rates of return similar to certificates of deposit or common stock mutual funds are probably not as good an investment as reinvesting farm earnings back into the farm business.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115846622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S016354840000412X
D. C. Zimmerman, D. Epp
A five-year linear programming farm planning model, permitting the inclusion of nitrogen decay rates, was constructed to include the use of sewage sludge as a primary crop nutrient source. Twenty-two scenarios depicting various operating conditions were examined and maximized net farm incomes compared . Although only a small percentage difference resulted between the highest and the lowest net revenues over the five-year period , given a variety of operating circumstances, those scenarios including the use of sludge yielded the highest net incomes. Nitrogen application restrictions were at their upper limits when sludge use was included in the optimal solution. The calculation of net present values, for the two sludge contents considered , provided value estimates compatible with the linear programming solutions.
{"title":"Modeling the Use of Sewage Sludge on Pennsylvania Dairy Farms: An Economic Analysis","authors":"D. C. Zimmerman, D. Epp","doi":"10.1017/S016354840000412X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S016354840000412X","url":null,"abstract":"A five-year linear programming farm planning model, permitting the inclusion of nitrogen decay rates, was constructed to include the use of sewage sludge as a primary crop nutrient source. Twenty-two scenarios depicting various operating conditions were examined and maximized net farm incomes compared . Although only a small percentage difference resulted between the highest and the lowest net revenues over the five-year period , given a variety of operating circumstances, those scenarios including the use of sludge yielded the highest net incomes. Nitrogen application restrictions were at their upper limits when sludge use was included in the optimal solution. The calculation of net present values, for the two sludge contents considered , provided value estimates compatible with the linear programming solutions.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124496199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004088
R. Raunikar, Chung L. Huang
Expenditure patterns for whole milk and lowfat milk in the Northeast region were examined by applying the Tobit maximum likelihood procedure to the 1977-78 USDA NFCSdata. Results suggest that differing expenditure patterns exist between whole milk and lowfat milk. Household income estimates indicate significant positive effects on expenditure for lowfat milk but negative on expenditure for whole milk. Whole milk expenditure was estimated to be strongly related to the family life cycle stages through the child-raising years.
{"title":"Characteristics of Fluid Milk Expenditure Patterns in the Northeast Region","authors":"R. Raunikar, Chung L. Huang","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004088","url":null,"abstract":"Expenditure patterns for whole milk and lowfat milk in the Northeast region were examined by applying the Tobit maximum likelihood procedure to the 1977-78 USDA NFCSdata. Results suggest that differing expenditure patterns exist between whole milk and lowfat milk. Household income estimates indicate significant positive effects on expenditure for lowfat milk but negative on expenditure for whole milk. Whole milk expenditure was estimated to be strongly related to the family life cycle stages through the child-raising years.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128991972","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004040
R. Beilock, John H. Koburger, J. P. Morgan
Models are developed to examine the determinants of weekly truck rates for produce shipped to the Northeast from California and Florida. ln the empirical work, a large proportion of the variation in rates is explained and the estimated parameters are generally consistent with a priori expectations. The total quantity of produce shipped from each state, the proportion of this total which is compatible with the commodity in question, and the F.O .B. price if the commodity were found to be the most important determinants of truck rate levels. Fuel costs have a surprisingly weak influence, at least in the short run, and for Florida origin commodities the truck rate-fuel cost relationship appears to have weakened over the 1979-1983 sample period.
{"title":"Explaining Truck Rate Variations for Produce Shipped to the Northeast","authors":"R. Beilock, John H. Koburger, J. P. Morgan","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004040","url":null,"abstract":"Models are developed to examine the determinants of weekly truck rates for produce shipped to the Northeast from California and Florida. ln the empirical work, a large proportion of the variation in rates is explained and the estimated parameters are generally consistent with a priori expectations. The total quantity of produce shipped from each state, the proportion of this total which is compatible with the commodity in question, and the F.O .B. price if the commodity were found to be the most important determinants of truck rate levels. Fuel costs have a surprisingly weak influence, at least in the short run, and for Florida origin commodities the truck rate-fuel cost relationship appears to have weakened over the 1979-1983 sample period.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"141 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124245821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004106
J. Wysong, Marie Leigh, Pradeep Ganguly
The Northeast region with nearly 25 percent of the U.S. population and purchasing power in I 983 is a deficit regioa in both processing and fresh market vegetable crops. This study explores the underlying factors in the long post-World War II decline in Northeastern vegetable production. It evaluates the economic viability of small-scale, family operated vegetable farms with emphasis on Maryland and the Baltimore-Washington Wholesale Market outlet near Jessup, Maryland. Preliminary results of our study indicate that, under certain conditions, small-scale fami ly farms can grow and commercially market fresh-market vegetables at competitive prices, and generate healthy cash flows. The optimum mix of crops would include up to three, non-competing crop sequences, with four different vegetable crops including spinach, snap beans, tomatoes and broccoli. Family (owner-operator) labor was found to be a major resource constraint on volume of vegetables marketed, especially tomatoes. Potentials for future expansion in selected crops seem to exist with improved technology and better management.
{"title":"The Economic Viability of Commercial Fresh Vegetable Production in the Northeastern United States","authors":"J. Wysong, Marie Leigh, Pradeep Ganguly","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004106","url":null,"abstract":"The Northeast region with nearly 25 percent of the U.S. population and purchasing power in I 983 is a deficit regioa in both processing and fresh market vegetable crops. This study explores the underlying factors in the long post-World War II decline in Northeastern vegetable production. It evaluates the economic viability of small-scale, family operated vegetable farms with emphasis on Maryland and the Baltimore-Washington Wholesale Market outlet near Jessup, Maryland. Preliminary results of our study indicate that, under certain conditions, small-scale fami ly farms can grow and commercially market fresh-market vegetables at competitive prices, and generate healthy cash flows. The optimum mix of crops would include up to three, non-competing crop sequences, with four different vegetable crops including spinach, snap beans, tomatoes and broccoli. Family (owner-operator) labor was found to be a major resource constraint on volume of vegetables marketed, especially tomatoes. Potentials for future expansion in selected crops seem to exist with improved technology and better management.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130106619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004027
J. M. Halstead
Agricultural land provides a variety of " nonmarket" services to the Commonwealth, including wildlife habitat, scenic vistas, and recreation . This study utilizes an iterative bidding game to estimate willingness-to-pay of residents of three central Massachusetts counties to preserve state agricultural land. Through the use of these data, estimates of the value of these nonmarket amenities are derived so that a fuUer measure of the value of agricultural land can be obtained. This information may be useful to policy makers administering such programs as the Agricultural Preservation Restriction Act (Chapter 780) which are designed to arrest the conversion of Massachusetts farmland to urban uses.
{"title":"Measuring the Nonmarket Value of Massachusetts Agricultural Land: A Case Study","authors":"J. M. Halstead","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004027","url":null,"abstract":"Agricultural land provides a variety of \" nonmarket\" services to the Commonwealth, including wildlife habitat, scenic vistas, and recreation . This study utilizes an iterative bidding game to estimate willingness-to-pay of residents of three central Massachusetts counties to preserve state agricultural land. Through the use of these data, estimates of the value of these nonmarket amenities are derived so that a fuUer measure of the value of agricultural land can be obtained. This information may be useful to policy makers administering such programs as the Agricultural Preservation Restriction Act (Chapter 780) which are designed to arrest the conversion of Massachusetts farmland to urban uses.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114123739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004143
P. D. Taylor, W. Tomek
This study develops a simple model to forecast the basis for corn in a specific region. Improved forecasts can improve hedging decisions. Basis behavior, however, depends on explanatory variables that are themselves difficult to forecast with precision. Thi limits the u efulness of the ba is model , but it doe offer some benefit over naive foreca ts.
{"title":"Forecasting the Basis for Corn in Western New York","authors":"P. D. Taylor, W. Tomek","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004143","url":null,"abstract":"This study develops a simple model to forecast the basis for corn in a specific region. Improved forecasts can improve hedging decisions. Basis behavior, however, depends on explanatory variables that are themselves difficult to forecast with precision. Thi limits the u efulness of the ba is model , but it doe offer some benefit over naive foreca ts.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129316100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004179
D. Dudek, P. Allen
Insurance rates for crop yield protection programs have traditionally been calcu lated from county average yie lds. Where grower acreages and yields are not homogeneous, this approach leads to higher premiums and payouts and greater incidence of adverse selection . With individual grower data a production weighted rate premium calcu lation method ca~ be used which avoids these problems . Furthermore, the definition of rate classes is not constrained to county boundaries. The additional complication of technical change is addressed and one solution is provided. Results are presented for the cranberry industry.
{"title":"Estimating Crop Yield Insurance Premium Rates","authors":"D. Dudek, P. Allen","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004179","url":null,"abstract":"Insurance rates for crop yield protection programs have traditionally been calcu lated from county average yie lds. Where grower acreages and yields are not homogeneous, this approach leads to higher premiums and payouts and greater incidence of adverse selection . With individual grower data a production weighted rate premium calcu lation method ca~ be used which avoids these problems . Furthermore, the definition of rate classes is not constrained to county boundaries. The additional complication of technical change is addressed and one solution is provided. Results are presented for the cranberry industry.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"134 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133808787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1984-04-01DOI: 10.1017/S0163548400004064
Nancy Sout-Wiegand, S. Bulman, Dennis K. Smith
Rural residents, particularly recent in-migrants , are often characterized by preferences for a tranquil rural Lifestyle based on the attributes of an open countryside. A survey of residents of an isolated rural county in West Virginia was conducted to explore the proposition that recent rural in-migrants are more opposed to the growth of natural resource based activities which are detrimental to the rural countryside than are long-term residents of the County . The hypothesis was not supported , as both recent in-migrants and long-time residents strongly favored economic development of the County's natural resources over preservation of the natural countryside.
{"title":"The Attitudes of Rural Residents Toward the Expansion of Natural Resource Based Economic Activities: A Comparison Between Recent In-migrants and Long-time Residents","authors":"Nancy Sout-Wiegand, S. Bulman, Dennis K. Smith","doi":"10.1017/S0163548400004064","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0163548400004064","url":null,"abstract":"Rural residents, particularly recent in-migrants , are often characterized by preferences for a tranquil rural Lifestyle based on the attributes of an open countryside. A survey of residents of an isolated rural county in West Virginia was conducted to explore the proposition that recent rural in-migrants are more opposed to the growth of natural resource based activities which are detrimental to the rural countryside than are long-term residents of the County . The hypothesis was not supported , as both recent in-migrants and long-time residents strongly favored economic development of the County's natural resources over preservation of the natural countryside.","PeriodicalId":421915,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1984-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121564675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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