In settings where other-regarding motives are likely to be (and some would argue, should be) at the forefront of our minds, how much of our behavior can still be explained by narrow pecuniary self-interest by itself? In an experiment where subjects are asked to vote between two income distributions that have diametrically opposed effects on the group as a whole, I find that self-interest still appears to dwarf the combined effects of other-regarding motives in influencing the votes of the vast majority of subjects.
{"title":"Do distributional preferences reverse on a dollar? An experiment","authors":"Marlon Williams","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i3.3566","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i3.3566","url":null,"abstract":"In settings where other-regarding motives are likely to be (and some would argue, should be) at the forefront of our minds, how much of our behavior can still be explained by narrow pecuniary self-interest by itself? In an experiment where subjects are asked to vote between two income distributions that have diametrically opposed effects on the group as a whole, I find that self-interest still appears to dwarf the combined effects of other-regarding motives in influencing the votes of the vast majority of subjects.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42125770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Existing theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of students’ performance reveals a direct link between pre-primary education and achievement test scores in primary school. Relying on the first-of-its-kind 2015 wave data from the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA), the present study analyses the associations between students’ performance in science and a broad set of variables, including regressors that proxy pre-primary education. Employing a Gini Regression Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to account for model uncertainty, it is found that non-attendance in pre-primary education is a robust determinant with a negative impact on students’ performance in science. This result is confirmed both under Gini-BMA and OLS-BMA methodology.
{"title":"Factors that affect Students’ performance in Science: An application using Gini-BMA methodology in PISA 2015 dataset","authors":"Anastasia Dimiski","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i2.1948","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i2.1948","url":null,"abstract":"Existing theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of students’ performance reveals a direct link between pre-primary education and achievement test scores in primary school. Relying on the first-of-its-kind 2015 wave data from the Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA), the present study analyses the associations between students’ performance in science and a broad set of variables, including regressors that proxy pre-primary education. Employing a Gini Regression Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to account for model uncertainty, it is found that non-attendance in pre-primary education is a robust determinant with a negative impact on students’ performance in science. This result is confirmed both under Gini-BMA and OLS-BMA methodology.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42751650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.
{"title":"Import Tariffs and Informal Labour Market: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis for Turkey","authors":"Hale Akbulut, Hüseyin Taylan Eğen","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i2.4046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i2.4046","url":null,"abstract":"From the 1980s to onwards trade liberalization policies have been widely used in many countries. This process has significant impacts on many economic aspects one of which is on the labour market. However, the direction of the relationship between trade reforms and the labour market is controversial. This study aims to analyse the effects of a specific trade reform of import tariff changes on the formal and informal labour market for Turkey. For that purpose, we benefit from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model that relies on nonlinear simultaneous equations. We construct an updated Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) which is compatible with our model. Our findings indicate that while there is a positive relationship between formal labour employment in total and import tariff rates, the negative relationship occurs between informal employment and tariff rates.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46360985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present analysis examines the initiation of necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship ventures in Canada from the late 1980s until more recent times, to determine how these activities relate with the business cycle. The definitions of necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship mirror those in Fairlie and Fossen (2018). Unlike previous results for other countries, I find that in Canada, both necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship appear to be procyclical, with new ventures increasing as unemployment declines. These results hold after various robustness tests, including gender stratification are applied. The possibility of using these forms of entrepreneurship as leading or lagged indicators of recessions is also considered.
{"title":"Necessity and Opportunity Entrepreneurship in Canada","authors":"F. Neymotin","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i2.1841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i2.1841","url":null,"abstract":"The present analysis examines the initiation of necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship ventures in Canada from the late 1980s until more recent times, to determine how these activities relate with the business cycle. The definitions of necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship mirror those in Fairlie and Fossen (2018). Unlike previous results for other countries, I find that in Canada, both necessity and opportunity entrepreneurship appear to be procyclical, with new ventures increasing as unemployment declines. These results hold after various robustness tests, including gender stratification are applied. The possibility of using these forms of entrepreneurship as leading or lagged indicators of recessions is also considered.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47478987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
immigrants have greater exposure to co-ethnics, leading to fewer incentives to learn the local culture and assimilate. In this paper, the exposure channel through which source country richness affects assimilating immigration is modelled through neighbourhood location choices and incentives to learn the local culture in the host country. Two equilibrium outcomes are identified, in which, there is either only assimilating immigration in at least one neighbourhood of the host country (sorting equilibrium) when immigration is from a rich source country, or there is some non-assimilating immigration in all neighbourhoods (mixed equilibrium) when immigration is from a poor source country. The presence of this exposure channel is tested using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants in Canada: waves 1-3. Learning, rather than sorting into co-ethnic communities, is the main factor operating in the exposure channel between source country richness and assimilating immigration.
{"title":"Cultural Assimilation: Learning and Sorting","authors":"Stein Monteiro","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i2.4045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i2.4045","url":null,"abstract":"immigrants have greater exposure to co-ethnics, leading to fewer incentives to learn the local culture and assimilate. In this paper, the exposure channel through which source country richness affects assimilating immigration is modelled through neighbourhood location choices and incentives to learn the local culture in the host country. Two equilibrium outcomes are identified, in which, there is either only assimilating immigration in at least one neighbourhood of the host country (sorting equilibrium) when immigration is from a rich source country, or there is some non-assimilating immigration in all neighbourhoods (mixed equilibrium) when immigration is from a poor source country. The presence of this exposure channel is tested using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants in Canada: waves 1-3. Learning, rather than sorting into co-ethnic communities, is the main factor operating in the exposure channel between source country richness and assimilating immigration.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47176790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
E. Stathakis, Theophilos Papadimitriou, Periklis Gogas
Electricity markets are considered to be the most volatile amongst commodity markets. The non-storability of electricity and the need for instantaneous balancing of demand and supply can often cause extreme short-lived fluctuations in electricity prices. These fluctuations are termed price spikes. In this paper, we employ a multiclass Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to forecast the occurrence of price spikes in the German intraday electricity market. As price spikes, we define the prices that lie above the 95th quantile estimated by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution in the innovation distribution of an AR-EGARCH model. The generalization ability of the model is tested in an out-of-the-sample dataset consisting of 4080 hours. Furthermore, we compare the performance of our best SVM model against Neural Networks (NNs) and Gradient Boosted Machines (GBMs).
{"title":"Forecasting Price Spikes in Electricity Markets","authors":"E. Stathakis, Theophilos Papadimitriou, Periklis Gogas","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i1.1822","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i1.1822","url":null,"abstract":"Electricity markets are considered to be the most volatile amongst commodity markets. The non-storability of electricity and the need for instantaneous balancing of demand and supply can often cause extreme short-lived fluctuations in electricity prices. These fluctuations are termed price spikes. In this paper, we employ a multiclass Support Vector Machine (SVM) model to forecast the occurrence of price spikes in the German intraday electricity market. As price spikes, we define the prices that lie above the 95th quantile estimated by fitting a Generalized Pareto distribution in the innovation distribution of an AR-EGARCH model. The generalization ability of the model is tested in an out-of-the-sample dataset consisting of 4080 hours. Furthermore, we compare the performance of our best SVM model against Neural Networks (NNs) and Gradient Boosted Machines (GBMs).","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47832034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines how the largest stock market of the world, the U.S., and particularly the S&P500 index, reacted during the COVID-19 outbreak (02.01.2020-30.04.2020). Using simple financial and corporate analysis (adopting Constant Growth Model) procedures for our theoretical framework, we juxtapose the released news with the respective market performance in order to examine if the stock market always incorporated the available information in time. We show that the market in some sub-periods was not moving as it was expected, and the runs-test statistically confirmed our assumptions that the US stock market was not efficient during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that in some cases the market does not incorporate the news instantly, is irrational, and non-sensible. All these make the market’s behavior unpredictable for a rational asset pricing model because as this paper shows even the simplest financial theories could explain rational behavior, but the market presented a different performance.
{"title":"Efficient Markets Hypothesis in the time of COVID-19.","authors":"Evangelos Vasileiou","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i1.1799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i1.1799","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines how the largest stock market of the world, the U.S., and particularly the S&P500 index, reacted during the COVID-19 outbreak (02.01.2020-30.04.2020). Using simple financial and corporate analysis (adopting Constant Growth Model) procedures for our theoretical framework, we juxtapose the released news with the respective market performance in order to examine if the stock market always incorporated the available information in time. We show that the market in some sub-periods was not moving as it was expected, and the runs-test statistically confirmed our assumptions that the US stock market was not efficient during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that in some cases the market does not incorporate the news instantly, is irrational, and non-sensible. All these make the market’s behavior unpredictable for a rational asset pricing model because as this paper shows even the simplest financial theories could explain rational behavior, but the market presented a different performance.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42903515","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This is the first paper in estimating a population-averaged panel logit probability model to test the importance of the interaction between deficit in the public budgeting and income inequality in banking crises, for 36 developed countries from 1961-2011. New empirical evidence is shown on whether rising inequality is linked with financial crises, corroborating theoretical expectations of post-Keynesian authors. Policy measures are provided and tested empirically: whilst in general terms higher levels of income inequality could be associated with financial crises; countries with high levels of income inequality could reduce the likelihood of a crisis better in a context of fiscal consolidation. One reason could be that governments could use this public surplus for reducing income inequality, which helps to reduce defaults and banking crises. These results could be useful for academics, and policy-makers.
{"title":"How do income inequality and fiscal consolidation impact on banking crises? A post-Keynesian view","authors":"Guillermo Peña","doi":"10.15353/rea.v13i1.1712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v13i1.1712","url":null,"abstract":"This is the first paper in estimating a population-averaged panel logit probability model to test the importance of the interaction between deficit in the public budgeting and income inequality in banking crises, for 36 developed countries from 1961-2011. New empirical evidence is shown on whether rising inequality is linked with financial crises, corroborating theoretical expectations of post-Keynesian authors. Policy measures are provided and tested empirically: whilst in general terms higher levels of income inequality could be associated with financial crises; countries with high levels of income inequality could reduce the likelihood of a crisis better in a context of fiscal consolidation. One reason could be that governments could use this public surplus for reducing income inequality, which helps to reduce defaults and banking crises. These results could be useful for academics, and policy-makers.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43754484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the impact of trade liberalization on firm productivity growth in Kenya’s manufacturing sector, using a panel spanning 8 years; 1992-1999. Our analysis reveals that liberalizing trade generates high productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector. We find that a one-unit reduction in import duties as a percentage of total imports significantly increases firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector by 5.7%. When we examine this effect on the firm’s share of exported output, we find that lowering of import duties significantly increases the share of output exported by 0.7%. Further, we sought to assess how the effect of import duties varied across the different industries in our sample. Examining the effect of import duties on industrial performance, we find a negative and statistically significant relationship in some of the industries. Our results show heterogeneous effect of reduction of import duties on industrial performance. Not all industries benefited from the lowering of import duties, especially the food and bakery, and garment industry, where productivity did not increase. These findings have important policy implications for improving the manufacturing sector. Consequently, formulating policies that effectively relax restrictive barriers to trade in the economy could speed up firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector.
{"title":"Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Analysis from Kenya","authors":"S. Esaku, W. Krugell","doi":"10.15353/rea.v12i4.1791","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v12i4.1791","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the impact of trade liberalization on firm productivity growth in Kenya’s manufacturing sector, using a panel spanning 8 years; 1992-1999. Our analysis reveals that liberalizing trade generates high productivity improvements in the manufacturing sector. We find that a one-unit reduction in import duties as a percentage of total imports significantly increases firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector by 5.7%. When we examine this effect on the firm’s share of exported output, we find that lowering of import duties significantly increases the share of output exported by 0.7%. Further, we sought to assess how the effect of import duties varied across the different industries in our sample. Examining the effect of import duties on industrial performance, we find a negative and statistically significant relationship in some of the industries. Our results show heterogeneous effect of reduction of import duties on industrial performance. Not all industries benefited from the lowering of import duties, especially the food and bakery, and garment industry, where productivity did not increase. These findings have important policy implications for improving the manufacturing sector. Consequently, formulating policies that effectively relax restrictive barriers to trade in the economy could speed up firm-level productivity in the manufacturing sector.","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44230346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of our research is to investigate whether the choice to export directly versus indirect export plays a role in the level of knowledge acquired by exporting firms. To the best of our knowledge, there is no empirical evidence in this stream of literature and our original contribution consists in considering the outcomes of learning-by-exporting in presence of export intermediaries. Thus, we study whether different export strategies may generate different unobservable productivity premia. In particular, we focused on 25 emerging Countries, and through a machine learning method, we evaluate how the level of knowledge acquired by firms would change if those who chose a specific strategy had instead chosen another one. Our results show that (1) the learning by exporting hypothesis is still valid when firms export indirectly; (2) direct exporters acquire more knowledge than indirect exporters; (3) under the same export strategy, Chinese exporters (direct and indirect) outperform other Asian exporters.
{"title":"Knowledge and Export Modes: Which Export Strategy Boosts Firms Knowledge Acquisition?","authors":"Marco Di Cintio","doi":"10.15353/rea.v12i4.1956","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.15353/rea.v12i4.1956","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 \u0000The aim of our research is to investigate whether the choice to export directly versus indirect export plays a role in the level of knowledge acquired by exporting firms. To the best of our knowledge, there is no empirical evidence in this stream of literature and our original contribution consists in considering the outcomes of learning-by-exporting in presence of export intermediaries. Thus, we study whether different export strategies may generate different unobservable productivity premia. In particular, we focused on 25 emerging Countries, and through a machine learning method, we evaluate how the level of knowledge acquired by firms would change if those who chose a specific strategy had instead chosen another one. Our results show that (1) the learning by exporting hypothesis is still valid when firms export indirectly; (2) direct exporters acquire more knowledge than indirect exporters; (3) under the same export strategy, Chinese exporters (direct and indirect) outperform other Asian exporters. \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000","PeriodicalId":42350,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45969990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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