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Overlooked Opportunity: Trade in Services 被忽视的机会:服务贸易
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2016-0009
J. Jensen
Abstract Politicians love the manufacturing sector (almost as much as they love farmers). The current administration has in place a number of programs to support the manufacturing and set as a goal to “create one million new manufacturing jobs by the end of 2016.” (Bogage, Jacob. “Obama’s elusive promise to add one million new manufacturing jobs,” Washington Post, May 5, 2016. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obamas-elusive-promise-to-deliver-1-million-new-manufacturing-jobs/2016/05/05/717d8cd0-107a-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html.) The current administration is not alone, both major party presidential nominees also have policies to focus on the manufacturing sector – often involving some type of change to US trade policy. Clinton has back-tracked on the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement and Trump goes further to propose applying 45 percent tariffs on goods from China and 35 percent on goods from Mexico – all seemingly with an eye to aiding the manufacturing sector. While a rebound in the manufacturing sector would be welcome, it is unlikely to have a material impact on the aggregate US employment picture – in 2012, manufacturing accounted for only about 8 percent of the labor force. Worse, focusing on the manufacturing sector diverts attention from a real opportunity: trade in services. The United States has a significant opportunity for increased growth through exports of business services. Global trade increased almost 7-fold over the period 1980–2010. Services share of world trade has increased from about 15 percent in 1980 to 20 percent in 2010. The United States share of global services trade has grown from about 10 percent in 1980 to 14 percent in 2010 – a growing share of a growing pie (World Trade Organization website. http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/trade_data_e.htm.). The growing middle-class in emerging economies will likely combine to increase demand for services globally [Eichengreen and Gupta (2009) demonstrate a strong correlation between GDP per capita and the share of business services in GDP, suggesting that rising incomes are associated with increased demand for services.].
政治家喜欢制造业(几乎和他们喜欢农民一样多)。本届政府已经制定了一系列支持制造业的计划,并设定了“到2016年底创造100万个新的制造业就业岗位”的目标。“哎呀,雅各布。2016年5月5日,《华盛顿邮报》,“奥巴马增加100万个制造业岗位的难以实现的承诺”。来源:https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obamas -难以捉摸的承诺- - - - - - -提供- 100万-新-制造- jobs/2016/05/05/717d8cd0 - 107 - 11 - e6 - 93 - ae - 50921721165 - d_story.html)。本届政府并不孤单,两大政党的总统候选人也都有关注制造业的政策——通常涉及对美国贸易政策的某种改变。克林顿在《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, tpp)上出言不逊,特朗普进一步提议对来自中国的商品征收45%的关税,对来自墨西哥的商品征收35%的关税——所有这些似乎都是为了帮助制造业。虽然制造业的反弹是受欢迎的,但它不太可能对美国的总体就业状况产生实质性影响——2012年,制造业仅占劳动力的8%左右。更糟糕的是,对制造业的关注转移了人们对一个真正机会的关注:服务贸易。美国有很大的机会通过商业服务出口来促进经济增长。1980年至2010年期间,全球贸易增长了近7倍。服务贸易占世界贸易的份额从1980年的15%左右增加到2010年的20%。美国在全球服务贸易中所占的份额从1980年的10%左右增长到2010年的14%——在一个不断扩大的蛋糕中所占的份额越来越大。http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/trade_data_e.htm)。新兴经济体中不断增长的中产阶级可能会增加全球对服务的需求[Eichengreen和Gupta(2009)证明了人均GDP与商业服务在GDP中的份额之间存在很强的相关性,这表明收入的增加与服务需求的增加有关]。
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引用次数: 0
Growing Apart: The Evolution of Income vs. Wealth Inequality 渐行渐远:收入与财富不平等的演变
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2015-0006
M. Cragg, Rand Ghayad
Abstract The gap between the richest Americans and the rest of the nation has changed dramatically over the past three decades – becoming one of the most challenging political and economic trends for the nation. For decades prior to that, the distribution of wealth and income had been relatively stable, so much that a central problem posed in the economics literature was to explain this stability. But beginning in the early 1980s, inequality began to grow rapidly and has recently been attracting substantial attention from policymakers and researchers reflecting a widespread concern that reflecting a widespread concern that growing labor incomes of senior executives, finance professionals, and successful entrepreneurs is entailing large economic costs to society. The dominant paradigm in the media and Washington is that inequality is purely a matter of divergence in earned (labor) income inequality which can be ameliorated by making earned income taxes more progressive and shifting spending to help the poorer. However, this is not the story: wealth inequality, as it turns out, is much worse. This warrants emphasis for a variety of reasons: (1) a growing body of research that suggests that in the head-on comparison it is wealth inequality, rather than income inequality or poverty that has a negative, statistically significant effect on economic growth. 1 Bagchi and Svejnar (2013). (2) Historically societies have failed when wealth has become overly concentrated; and (3) the wedge between earned and unearned income tax rates reduces progressivity as capital income rises. We offer a number of solutions which should generate debate amongst economists as they test conventional wisdom.
在过去的30年里,最富有的美国人和其他国家的人之间的差距发生了巨大的变化,成为美国最具挑战性的政治和经济趋势之一。在此之前的几十年里,财富和收入的分配一直相对稳定,以至于经济学文献中提出的一个中心问题是解释这种稳定性。但从20世纪80年代初开始,不平等开始迅速增长,最近引起了政策制定者和研究人员的广泛关注,反映了一种普遍的担忧,即高管、金融专业人士和成功企业家不断增长的劳动收入正在给社会带来巨大的经济成本。媒体和华盛顿的主流范式是,不平等纯粹是劳动收入不平等的分歧问题,这种不平等可以通过提高劳动所得税的累进性和转移支出以帮助穷人来改善。然而,事实并非如此:事实证明,财富不平等要严重得多。这一点值得强调,原因有很多:(1)越来越多的研究表明,在正面比较中,对经济增长产生负面影响的是财富不平等,而不是收入不平等或贫困。1 Bagchi and Svejnar(2013)。(2)历史上,当财富过度集中时,社会就会失败;(3)随着资本收入的增加,劳动所得和非劳动所得税率之间的差距降低了累进性。我们提供了一些解决方案,这些解决方案应该会在经济学家之间引发争论,因为他们正在测试传统智慧。
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引用次数: 3
Hurry or Wait – The Pros and Cons of Going Fast or Slow on Climate Change 抓紧还是等——在气候变化问题上走得快还是慢的利弊
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-08-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2015-0007
E. Denny, J. Weiss
Abstract Climate change risk will likely force the de-carbonization of our electricity sector and thus involve massive investments in long-lived assets using many new and emerging technologies. Since technological progress (independent or dependent on deployment) will likely lower the future cost of those technologies, investing early and rapidly forecloses saving money by installing those technologies at a lower cost later. There are thus benefits to waiting until the costs of renewables fall further. However, there are also costs to waiting. First, given the longevity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, cumulative emissions matter and lowering greenhouse gas emissions earlier is beneficial. Second, there is significant uncertainty not only over the rate of change of the cost of low carbon technologies, but also over the cost of greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of waiting are complex in that the distributions themselves are unknown (and quite possibly have “fat” tails). There may also be complex timing issues such as points of no return in terms of global greenhouse gas concentrations, beyond which the costs of adapting to climate change effects become essentially infinite. Hurrying can therefore be considered an insurance policy against the unknown but perhaps increasing risk of catastrophic damage.
气候变化风险可能会迫使我们的电力部门去碳化,从而涉及到使用许多新兴技术的长期资产的大量投资。由于技术进步(独立或依赖于部署)可能会降低这些技术的未来成本,因此早期投资和快速取消可通过稍后以较低成本安装这些技术来节省资金。因此,等待可再生能源成本进一步下降是有好处的。然而,等待也是有代价的。首先,考虑到温室气体在大气中的寿命,累积排放和尽早降低温室气体排放是有益的。其次,不仅低碳技术成本的变化率存在很大的不确定性,而且温室气体排放的成本也存在很大的不确定性。等待的代价是复杂的,因为分布本身是未知的(而且很可能有“肥”尾)。还可能存在复杂的时间问题,例如全球温室气体浓度的无回归点,超过这个点,适应气候变化影响的成本基本上是无限的。因此,匆忙行事可以被视为一种保险政策,以应对未知但可能增加的灾难性损害风险。
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引用次数: 0
The Political Economy of Net Neutrality Regulation 网络中立性监管的政治经济学
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2015-0003
Dennis L. Weisman
Abstract On February 26, 2015, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) proposed sweeping new regulation for broadband providers. While regulation is typically driven by a combination of economic and political considerations, this article argues that the FCC’s initiative is long on politics and short on economics. For example, the FCC is not able to identify a non-transitory abuse of market power by broadband providers to justify its actions. There is no evidence of excessive returns being earned by broadband providers and the violations of net neutrality that the Commission can point to, including throttling and blocking of data, are conspicuously few in number. What is more, the FCC has yet to establish that the regulatory oversight it proposes would not stifle more investment than it stimulates. Broadband is an example of a two-sided market in which edge (content) providers represent one side of the market and consumers represent the other side of the market. Just as newspapers impose positive prices on both advertisers and subscribers, it is (quite generally) efficient in two-sided markets for both sides of the market to contribute to the total price. Two-sided markets are characterized by a seesaw principle in which a lower price on one side of the market tends to give rise to a higher price on the other side of the market. Hence, a ban on paid prioritization of traffic delivery over broadband networks essentially requires consumers to pay the full freight. The FCC is therefore in the unenviable position of having to justify a policy to regulate broadband that is distinguished by being both economically inefficient and socially inequitable. While the courts are disposed to give deference to expert federal agencies under the Chevron Doctrine, the lack of economic foundation to justify broadband regulation promises to make this tough sledding for the FCC. The strategy on the part of the broadband providers will be to run out the clock with litigation in the hope that the political winds shift in their favor post 2016.
2015年2月26日,美国联邦通信委员会(FCC)提出了针对宽带提供商的全面新规。虽然监管通常是由经济和政治因素共同驱动的,但本文认为,联邦通信委员会的倡议在政治上很长,在经济上很短。例如,FCC无法确定宽带提供商对市场力量的非暂时性滥用,以证明其行动的合理性。没有证据表明宽带提供商获得了过高的回报,委员会可以指出的违反网络中立性的行为,包括限制和阻止数据,数量明显很少。更重要的是,联邦通信委员会尚未确定其提议的监管监督不会扼杀更多的投资,而不是刺激更多的投资。宽带是一个双边市场的例子,其中边缘(内容)提供商代表市场的一边,消费者代表市场的另一边。正如报纸对广告主和订户都施加正价格一样,在双边市场中,市场双方对总价格的贡献是(相当普遍的)有效的。双边市场的特点是跷跷板原则,即市场一侧的较低价格往往会引起市场另一侧的较高价格。因此,禁止在宽带网络上按优先顺序付费传输流量,本质上要求消费者支付全部费用。因此,联邦通信委员会处于一种不令人羡慕的境地,必须为一项既经济效率低下又社会不公平的宽带监管政策辩护。虽然法院倾向于在雪佛龙原则下尊重联邦专家机构,但缺乏证明宽带监管合理性的经济基础,将使联邦通信委员会面临艰难的考验。宽带提供商的策略将是通过诉讼来消磨时间,希望2016年后政治风向对他们有利。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Change Adaptation Will Offer a Sharp Test of the Claims of Behavioral Economics 适应气候变化将是对行为经济学主张的严峻考验
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2015-0005
Matthew E. Kahn
Abstract: Concepts from behavioral economics can be used to make predictions concerning how climate change will impact the economy. Six new predictions from behavioral economics are compared to their rational expectations counterparts.
摘要:行为经济学的概念可以用来预测气候变化对经济的影响。将行为经济学的六个新预测与理性预期相比较。
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引用次数: 1
A Proposed Framework to Reduce Asymmetric Information in Equity Offerings 减少股权发行中信息不对称的建议框架
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2015-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2015-0004
Ilanit Gavious
Abstract The security offering literature shows that firms offering their shares for sale to the public generally manage their earnings upwards around the offering to raise investor demand for the firm’s shares and increase their sale price. In addition, the literature demonstrates that earnings management around the offering increases the information asymmetry between the issuers and outside investors, thereby increasing the issue flotation costs. Markedly increased flotation costs imply, inter alia, a reduced demand for, and pricing of, the new shares offered – the opposite result of that sought by the issuing management. To date, mechanisms to prevent issuing firms from managing earnings opportunistically are non-existent. I address this current gap in the literature by proposing a disclosure-based framework for issuing firms aimed at reducing the extent of information asymmetry between them, outside investors and underwriters. Specifically, I present a mechanism where firms add a voluntary “honest disclosure” section in their issue prospectuses, in which they provide information that reduces uncertainty about their financial reports. I demonstrate that such voluntary disclosures by firms create a reality that encourages truthful reporting around the offering and results in a more effective capital market. The proposed framework does not require a change in current institutional mechanisms. Furthermore, as an integral part of the prospectus, the SEC will scrutinize the disclosure. Last but not least, the new section should not add significant cost to the issuer.
摘要证券发行文献表明,发行股票的公司通常在发行前后向上管理其收益,以提高投资者对公司股票的需求并提高其销售价格。此外,文献表明围绕发行的盈余管理增加了发行人与外部投资者之间的信息不对称,从而增加了发行发行成本。显著增加的发行成本,除其他外,意味着对新发行股票的需求和定价减少,这与发行管理层所寻求的结果相反。迄今为止,防止发行公司投机地管理收益的机制尚不存在。我为发行公司提出了一个基于披露的框架,旨在减少发行公司、外部投资者和承销商之间的信息不对称程度,从而解决了目前文献中的这一差距。具体而言,我提出了一种机制,即公司在其发行说明书中增加自愿“诚实披露”部分,在该部分中,他们提供的信息减少了其财务报告的不确定性。我证明,公司的这种自愿披露创造了一种现实,鼓励围绕发行的真实报告,并导致更有效的资本市场。拟议的框架不需要改变目前的体制机制。此外,作为招股说明书的一个组成部分,SEC将对信息披露进行审查。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,新条款不应给发行人增加重大成本。
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引用次数: 0
The Power of Awards 奖项的力量
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2014-0002
B. Frey, Jana Gallus
Abstract Every economist worth his or her salt will tell you that monetary compensation is more efficient than all other forms of rewards. Awards have only received scant attention in the economics literature. Yet, they are ubiquitous. They can take many forms and include titles, prizes, orders, medals, and still other types of decorations. We outline the distinguishing characteristics of awards, especially in comparison to monetary rewards, show the potential risks and emphasize where awards are particularly useful.
每一位称职的经济学家都会告诉你,货币报酬比所有其他形式的报酬都更有效。在经济学文献中,奖项很少受到关注。然而,它们无处不在。它们可以有多种形式,包括头衔、奖品、勋章、奖章和其他类型的装饰。我们概述了奖励的显著特征,特别是与金钱奖励相比,显示了潜在的风险,并强调了奖励特别有用的地方。
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引用次数: 17
The Future of US Health Care: Is Medicare Really Better at “Saving” Money? 美国医疗保健的未来:医疗保险真的更“省钱”吗?
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-11-01 DOI: 10.1515/EV-2013-0013
A. Edlin, D. Goldman, Adam A. Leive
Abstract Paul Krugman, Robert Reich, and others see Medicare as a panacea. Krugman, for example, points out that average Medicare costs have grown only 400 percent while private insurance costs have grown 700 percent. Should the US move to Medicare for all? The case is not as clear as such statistics suggest.
保罗·克鲁格曼、罗伯特·赖希等人将医疗保险视为灵丹妙药。例如,克鲁格曼指出,医疗保险的平均成本只增长了400%,而私人保险的成本却增长了700%。美国应该转向全民医保吗?情况并不像这些统计数字所显示的那样清楚。
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引用次数: 0
Quarterly Fiscal Policy 季度财政政策
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/EV-2013-0034
D. Kendrick, H. Amman
Abstract Monetary policy is altered once a month. Fiscal policy is altered once a year. As a potential improvement this article examines the use of feedback control rules for fiscal policy that is altered quarterly. Following the work of Blinder and Orszag, modifications are discussed in Congressional practice and institutions that would facilitate this change.
货币政策每月调整一次。财政政策每年改变一次。作为一种潜在的改进,本文研究了对每季度更改的财政政策使用反馈控制规则。在Blinder和Orszag的工作之后,本文讨论了国会实践和制度中的修改,以促进这一变化。
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引用次数: 7
The Partners HealthCare Settlement and the Future of Health Care Organizations 合作伙伴医疗保健解决方案和医疗保健组织的未来
IF 0.4 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.1515/ev-2014-0005
Barak D Richman, K. Schulman
Abstract A recent settlement between Massachusetts and Partners HealthCare, along with successful antitrust actions by the Federal Trade Commission, may signal the beginning of the end of two decades of consolidation of health care providers. This consolidation has been associated with higher prices resulting from market power, justifying the antitrust actions. However, the appropriate remedy for the health sector is a unique challenge. The proposed settlement appears to lock into place the legacy of the hospital-based delivery model, rather than orchestrating a pathway to a new care delivery models. Clearly, we need a regulatory framework that will introduce innovative alternatives into the market, not enshrine the current costly paradigm.
最近马萨诸塞州和合作伙伴医疗保健之间的和解,以及成功的反垄断行动,由联邦贸易委员会,可能标志着开始结束二十年的整合医疗保健提供者。这种整合与市场力量导致的价格上涨有关,这为反垄断行动提供了理由。然而,卫生部门的适当补救措施是一项独特的挑战。拟议的解决方案似乎锁定了以医院为基础的交付模式的遗产,而不是编排一条通往新的医疗交付模式的途径。显然,我们需要一个监管框架,将创新的替代方案引入市场,而不是固守目前昂贵的模式。
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引用次数: 0
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