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Deteksi Keterbatasan Likuiditas di Sektor Keuangan 检测金融部门的流动性限制
Pub Date : 2016-12-19 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v19i3.146
Yoopi Abimanyu
Sejak tahun 2013 mata uang Rupiah terus terdepresiasi terhadap US dollar dan diharapkan bahwa tren ini akan terus berlanjut di masa yang akan datang. Ekspektasi akan terjadinya depresiasi lanjutan akan mendorong adanya aliran Rupiah dari pasar uang ke pasar valuta asing, untuk selanjutnya di konversi ke mata uang US dollar. Hal ini akan menciptakan kontraksi dan keterbatasan likuiditas di pasar uang dan sektor keuangan. Untuk menghindari keterbatasan tersebut, maka harus ada kebijakan pengukuran yang dilakukan oleh regulator di sektor keuangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeketeksi apakah terjadi keterbatasan likuiditas Rupiah pada sektor keuangan yang perlu dioffset dengan kebijakan uang ketat dari regulator atau otoritas sektor keuangan. Dengan menggunakan hipotesa bahwa tidak ada keterbatasan Rupiah di sektor keuangan, studi ini menggunakan metode visual inspection dan regresiterhadap variabel-variabelsektor keuangan, seperti base money, M1, M2, saving deposit, time deposit, dan net foreign assets serta net domestic assets. Hasil penelitian ini mendukung hipotesa bahwa tidak ada kontraksi di sektor keuangan. 
自2013年以来,印尼盾一直对美元表现出严重的贬值,预计目前的美元趋势将继续下去。进一步折旧的预期将导致印尼盾从货币市场流向外国价值市场,从而进一步转化为美元。这将导致货币市场和金融部门的流动性缩减和限制。为了避免这些限制,必须有监管机构在金融部门实施的测量政策。本研究旨在确定,金融部门是否存在与监管机构或金融当局严格的货币政策抵消的印尼盾流动性限制。基于一个假设,即金融部门没有卢比的限制,该研究采用了一种视觉检查方法和对金融部门变量的回归,如基本货币、M1、M2、储蓄存款、时间存款、网络海外资产和家庭资产。这项研究支持这样一种假设:金融部门没有宫缩
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引用次数: 0
Kelayakan Stimulus Modal Pada Bank Milik Negara
Pub Date : 2016-12-19 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I2.140
Mohamad Nasrin Nasir
Kondisi akses kredit Indonesia kurang optimal dan saat ini membutuhkan dana pembangunan infrastruktur yang sangat besar. Hal ini memunculkan gagasan untuk memberikan stimulus PMN pada bank BUMN (Bank Mandiri, BRI, dan BNI) agar dapat mengumpulkan dana pihak ketiga dalam jumlah yang besar. Ditengah keterbatasan APBN, studi kelayakan perlu dilakukan untuk mengukur ketepatan stimulus tersebut. Dengan menggunakan analisi deskriptif, dan kinerja penyaluran kredit, kinerja keuangan, dan kinerja leverage, paper menunjukan bahwa gagasan PMN pada bank BUMN layak untuk dilakukan, khususnya pada Bank Mandiri dan BRI. Hal ini terlihat dari : 1) pencapaian penyaluran kredit yang besar secara nominal, serta tingkat LDR yang sehat dan kompetitif bila dibandingkan dengan BCA, 2) kinerja keuangan yang baik sebagaimana terlihat dari pencapaian keuntungan yang besar dan dukungan modal yang kuat, dan 3) kinerja leverage lebih baik dibandingkan dengan BCA. Dengan asumsi PMN Rp3 triliun, diperkirakan bank BUMN mampu mengumpulkan dana pihak ketiga sebesar Rp39,45 triliun dalam bentuk kewajiban dan Rp2,09 triliun dalam bentuk ekuitas baru. Selanjutnya, paper ini merekomendasikan 1) implementasi gagasan dengan mengalokasi PMN pada Bank Mandiri dan atau BRI, 2) mendorong bank BUMN untuk memperbaiki kinerja efisiensi, 3) menyusun indikator kinerja utama para manajemen bank BUMN, dan 3) mengarahkan penyaluran dana untuk pembangunan infrastruktur yang berisiko rendah.
印尼的信贷接入条件不太理想,目前需要大量的基础设施建设资金。这导致了为国有企业银行(自力更生、BRI和BNI)筹集大量第三方资金的想法。在APBN的限制下,需要进行可行性研究来衡量这种刺激的准确性。纸利用描述性分析、信用分配、财务表现和杠杆表现表现,表明国有企业银行的概念是可行的,特别是独立银行和BRI。这可以从表面上看出来:1)小额信贷额度的巨大成就,以及健康、有竞争力的LDR水平,与BCA相比,2)从重大利润和强大资本支持中可以看到的良好财务表现,以及3)杠杆作用比BCA更好。假设国有国有银行Rp3万亿卢比,据估计,国有银行能够以负债形式筹集第三方资金,而rp2.09万亿美元用于新股本。其次,该论文建议1)通过将PMN分配给自力更生银行或BRI, 2)鼓励国有企业提高效率,3)编制国有银行管理的关键绩效指标,3)指导资金建设低风险基础设施。
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引用次数: 2
Determinan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Pendekatan Vektor Autoregresif
Pub Date : 2016-12-19 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I2.139
R. Handoko
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antar variabel yang dikategorikan sebagai determinan neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia.Dengan menggunakan pendekatan Vector Autoregression(VAR), penelitian ini membangun sebuah sistem dinamis yang terdiri atas enam variabel yaitu neraca transaksi berjalan, indeks pertumbuhan ekonomi mitra dagang utama (MTP), indeks harga komoditas (COMPI), nilai tukar efektif riil (REER), permintaan domestik (DOMD) dan suku bunga kebijakan bank sentral (BIR) sebagai determinan neraca transaksi berjalan. Analisa dengan menggunakan impulse response function menunjukkan bahwa neraca transaksi berjalan cenderung memberikan respons negatif terhadap shockyang terjadi pada variabel MTP, COMPI, REER dan DOMD.Di sisi lain, shock, neraca transaksi berjalan bereaksi positif terhadap shockdi variabel BIR. Analisa dengan menggunakan forecast error variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa shock neraca transaksi berjalan menjelaskan sebagian besar fluktuasi neraca transaksi berjalan, yang diikuti oleh permintaan domestik, harga komoditas, dan suku bunga kebijakan moneter (BI rate). Adanya keterkaitan hubungan antaradeterminan neraca transaksi berjalan menunjukkan pentingnya sinkroninasi kebijakan ekonomi untuk memperbaiki kinerja neraca transaksi berjalan.
本研究旨在分析在印尼进行的资产负债表确定的变量之间的关系。用这种向量Autoregression (VAR),研究方法建立一个动态系统,组成六个变量就是走路的时候,交易资产负债表主要贸易伙伴的经济增长指数(MTP)商品价格指数(COMPI),实际有效汇率(REER)、国内需求(DOMD)和央行政策利率(啤酒)作为自身资产负债表交易走。对MTP、COMPI、REER和DOMD变量的持续资产负债表的分析表明,经常进行的交易负债表往往会对MTP、COMPI、REER和DOMD变量产生负面反应。另一方面,震惊、资产负债表运行对啤酒变量shockck正面的反应。通过使用错误分类分类的分析,经常交易资产负债表的冲击解释了其中的大部分波动,其次是国内需求、大宗商品价格和货币政策利率利率。流动资产负债表之间的相互联系表明,协调经济政策以改善现有资产负债表绩效的重要性。
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引用次数: 1
CAUSALITY ANALYSIS BETWEEN FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX: A CASE STUDY OF PROVINCES IN EASTERN INDONESIA 财务绩效与人类发展指数的因果关系分析:以印尼东部省份为例
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v20i3.195
Singgih Riphat, Hadi Setiawan, Sofia Arie Damayanty
This research aims to examine the causal relationship between the provincial financial performance and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results of this research are important since it can be used as a guidance to make a sound policy of local government’s revenue and budget allocation which can improve the welfare or quality of the society. The methodology of this paper is a quantitative approach by using the Granger causality test. Several provinces in Eastern Indonesia are used as the object of research since those areas are underdeveloped compared to western Indonesia. Several financial ratios are used as the proxies of local financial performance. The results show that most of the financial performances do not have a causal relationship with HDI, except for several proxies in some provinces.
本文旨在探讨省级财政绩效与人类发展指数(HDI)之间的因果关系。本文的研究结果对制定合理的地方政府财政收入和预算分配政策具有重要的指导意义,有助于提高社会福利水平和社会质量。本文的研究方法是采用格兰杰因果检验的定量方法。印度尼西亚东部的几个省份被用作研究对象,因为这些地区与印度尼西亚西部相比欠发达。几个财务比率被用作地方财务绩效的代理。结果表明,除了个别省份的个别代理关系外,大部分财务绩效与HDI不存在因果关系。
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引用次数: 6
Oil Price, Government Revenue, Export Value, and Economic Growth: Indonesia’s Case 石油价格、政府收入、出口价值与经济增长:以印尼为例
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V20I3.194
Yoopi Abimanyu
Oil has been one of the main sources of Indonesia’s revenue, either from government budget or balance of payments point of views. Due to supply and demand of oil in the world market, prices of oil, either ICP, Brent UK, or WTI, had been decline lately. There are three hypotheses in this paper. The first hypothesis, oil prices change has a positive relationship with the government revenue. Using correlation coefficient, it is found that prices of oil are positively correlated with government revenue in terms of income tax and non-tax revenue with relatively small value. The second hypothesis, oil prices have a positive correlation with export value. Correlation coefficient indicates that they are positively correlated with a somewhat higher value relative to the first finding. The third hypothesis is oil prices are positively correlated with economic growth in terms of GDP constant price. Using Johansen cointegration, it is found that oil prices are not cointegrated with economic growth. This implies that oil is correlated with government revenue and export value. However, it seems that for the whole economic growth, oil is not correlated to the economy, or the reduction of oil price would not necessarily translate into a decline in the economic output.
无论是从政府预算还是从收支平衡的角度来看,石油一直是印尼财政收入的主要来源之一。最近,由于国际石油市场的供求关系,国际原油(ICP)、英国布伦特原油(Brent UK)、美国西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)等国际原油价格呈下降趋势。本文有三个假设。第一个假设,油价变动与政府财政收入呈正相关关系。利用相关系数分析发现,石油价格与政府所得税收入和价值相对较小的非税收入呈正相关。第二个假设,油价与出口价值呈正相关。相关系数表明它们正相关,相对于第一次发现的值略高。第三个假设是,以GDP不变价格计算,油价与经济增长呈正相关。利用约翰森协整法,发现油价与经济增长不存在协整关系。这意味着石油与政府收入和出口价值相关。然而,似乎对于整个经济增长而言,石油与经济并不相关,或者石油价格的下降并不一定会转化为经济产出的下降。
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引用次数: 6
Penerapan Earmarking Cukai Hasil Tembakau di Indonesia: Regulasi dan Konsep Ideal 印度尼西亚烟草产品消费税的应用:监管和概念理想
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V20I3.200
Eddy Mayor Putra Sitepu
Konsumsi rokok telah menyebabkan kematian atas setengah dari konsumennya (WHO, 2016), sehingga perlu tindakan dalam skala luas untuk melindungi masyarakat dari bahaya rokok. Di Indonesia, kebijakan earmarking telah diterapkan sejak 2008, namun hasilnya belum seperti yang diharapkan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis: tujuan kebijakan earmarking melalui DBH CHT; proporsi alokasi DBH CHT untuk pemerintah daerah; dan dasar alokasi DBH CHT yang tepat. Metodologi yang digunakan adalah studi literatur dengan menggunakan analisis deskriptif kualitatif dan analisis komparatif dengan membandingkan berbagai alternatif dasar alokasi yang dapat digunakan untuk pengalokasian DBH CHT. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, tujuan dari kebijakan DBH CHT harus dirancang ulang untuk mengakomodasi langkah-langkah yang diperlukan dalam mengatasi eksternalitas negatif akibat merokok. Selanjutnya, tingkat redistribusi harus diubah dari tingkat kabupaten/kota menjadi tingkat provinsi untuk meningkatkan lingkup kebijakan dan ruang lingkup tindakan. Terakhir, dasar alokasi harus didesain ulang karena dasar alokasi saat ini akan mendorong pemerintah daerah untuk meningkatkan produksi rokok daripada mengendalikannya.
香烟的消费已经导致世界上一半以上的消费者死亡(世卫组织,2016年),因此有必要采取全面措施保护公众免受烟草危害。在印度尼西亚,早在2008年就实施了earmarking政策,但结果并不如预期的那样。本研究的目的是分析:地方政府处理DBH的比例;以及正确的DBH点。使用的方法学是一项文献研究,使用描述性质的分析和比较性分析,比较可用于提取DBH CHT的各种替代方案。根据研究结果,DBH CHT政策的目标应该重新设计,以适应克服吸烟带来的负面外部影响所需的步骤。此外,再分配率必须从地区/城市级别改为省级,以增加政策范围和行动范围。最后,必须重新设计基地,因为目前的拨款基础将鼓励地方政府增加香烟的生产,而不是控制它。
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引用次数: 2
Analisis Model Makro Ekonomi Regional Bali Pendekatan Solow Neclassical Growth
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I3.126
Gede Sudjana Budhiasa
Bali Island is the most popular tourist destination in Indonesia, therfore the growth for international tourist destionation to Bali island could be impact and supporting generating income of people of Bali island. However, the policy design of one for all that was design by BTDC projects were concentrated tourist destionation at Kabupaten Badung and Kota Denpasar as main region activities.This research have been found that using econometrics two stages regression methods indicated that tourist growth center policy of BTDC is failures to distribute income and other benefits to the suburb area of 7 Kabupaten outside from center growth Kabupaten Badung and Kota Denpasar. The failure of beneficial of 7 Kabupaten to take participation is that because of the economic structure of 7 Kabupaten become dominated of primary sector and less power of industrial sectors
巴厘岛是印度尼西亚最受欢迎的旅游目的地,因此,巴厘岛国际旅游目的地的增长可能会影响和支持巴厘岛人民的收入。然而,由BTDC项目设计的“一个为所有”的政策设计集中在Kabupaten Badung和Kota Denpasar的旅游目的地作为主要的区域活动。本研究利用计量经济学的两阶段回归方法发现,BTDC的旅游增长中心政策未能从中心增长Kabupaten巴东和哥打登巴沙向7 Kabupaten郊区分配收入和其他利益。7 Kabupaten利益主体未能参与的原因是由于7 Kabupaten的经济结构导致第一产业占主导地位,工业部门的权力较小
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of National Health Insurance Towards A Universal Health Insurance 从国民健康保险走向全民健康保险的分析
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v19i1.27
F. Andi
As the implementation of Indonesian constitutional duty to provide the right for social security for all citizens, government of Republic of Indonesia provides the national health insurance program since January 1st 2014 which is operated by BPJS Kesehatan. The national insurance program is aimed to be a universal health insurance. There are some aspects that need to be analyzed to make this health insurance system to be a universal health insurance. Using meta analysis and to compare the implementation and the expected result of the program using secondary data obtained from previous iteratures, This research is trying to look at the prospect of national health insurance to be a universal health insurance. The reasearh found that the concept of National Health System has already met the criteria of a universal health insurance. However, the implementation of the concept still needs to be improved . The government needs to set a mechanism to accelerate and to ensure the participation of the people the program. Besides that the infrastructure of health service facilities need to be improved to ensure the provision of health care to the participants. The significance of this research is to bring some outlook that can be considered for improvement of the national health insurance program
作为印度尼西亚宪法义务的实施,为所有公民提供社会保障权利,印度尼西亚共和国政府自2014年1月1日起提供国家健康保险计划,该计划由BPJS Kesehatan运营。国家保险计划旨在成为全民健康保险。有一些方面需要分析,使这种健康保险制度是一个普遍的健康保险。本研究运用元分析,并利用从先前文献中获得的二手资料,比较该计划的实施和预期结果,试图探讨全民健康保险的前景。研究发现,国民健康体系的概念已经达到了全民健康保险的标准。然而,这一概念的实施仍有待改进。政府需要建立一个机制来加速和确保人民参与这个项目。此外,需要改善保健服务设施的基础设施,以确保向参与者提供保健。本研究的意义在于为国民健康保险制度的完善提供一些可考虑的展望
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引用次数: 3
THE ROLES OF BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN INDONESIA 基础设施在印度尼西亚减轻贫困方面的作用
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I1.19
S. Nugroho
The effect of infrastructure on poverty has been studied many times by researchers, but investigation about the transmission channel of infrastructure's effect on poverty needed more investigation due to more specific policy compiling. The aim of this present study is to investigate the role of basic infrastructure to fight the poverty by depicting the relationship of lenght of road, electricity transmission, clean water distribution, number of health care center, and number of school in particular areas with the poverty rate in Indonesia. This present study uses simple regression method, using panel data from 26 province level for year 2000-2008 in Indonesia. The result of this study reveals that road, electricity transmission, number of health care center, and number of school have an impact on poverty rate through economic growth which is proxied by human development index (HDI), in the other words the relationship between infrastructure and poverty is indirect relationship. Thus, if the Indonesian government is serious about reducing poverty, then the policy should give more emphasis on the poor and provide them with those basic infrastructures; and also have to improve the accessibility of the infrastructures for the poor people although its effect is indirectly.
基础设施对贫困的影响已经被研究者进行了多次研究,但由于政策的编制更加具体,对基础设施对贫困影响的传导渠道的调查还需要更多的研究。本研究的目的是通过描绘道路长度、电力传输、清洁水分配、卫生保健中心数量和特定地区学校数量与印度尼西亚贫困率的关系,调查基础设施在消除贫困方面的作用。本研究采用简单回归方法,使用印度尼西亚26个省2000-2008年的面板数据。研究结果表明,道路、输电、医疗中心数量和学校数量通过人类发展指数(HDI)所代表的经济增长对贫困率产生影响,即基础设施与贫困之间的关系是间接关系。因此,如果印尼政府真的想减少贫困,那么政策就应该更加重视穷人,为他们提供基本的基础设施;还必须改善穷人的基础设施的可及性,尽管它的影响是间接的。
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引用次数: 7
Evaluation of Indonesian Food Politics and Fiscal Politics Support 印尼食品政治与财政政治支持之评估
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I1.15
Syahrir Ika, Hadi Setiawan, Sofia Arie Damayanty
The Indonesian Constitution mandates the government to keep the food sovereignty in terms of availability, affordability, and the fulfillment of adequate food consumption with safety, quality, and nutritionally balanced. In food politics, the government has a number of policies and programs to achieve food self-sufficiency such as the provision of agricultural land, fertilizer, pesticides, seeds, irrigation, farmers' education, and financing supports. In terms of fiscal policy, the government annually allocates funds to support food self-sufficiency programs. Unfortunetaly, Indonesia still in the stage of below achieving a food self-sufficiency; the government still imports some strategic foodstuffs such as rice, corn, soybeans, sugar, and meat. Low production of foodstuffs bring about a decrease in agricultural sector contribution to GDP. This article aims to evaluate the effectiveness of government policy on food and fiscal policy support. Using secondary data, the study tries to describe using the approach of 'The Context, Links, and Evidence Framework". The study concludes that although the government has a strong commitment to have food sovereignty, but still difficult to achieve food selfsufficiency and food security. Therefore the authors recommend a policy package which includes nine priority programs to be considered by the government.
印尼宪法授权政府在可获得性、可负担性和实现安全、质量和营养均衡的充足食品消费方面保持食品主权。在粮食政治方面,政府有许多政策和计划来实现粮食自给自足,如提供农业用地、肥料、农药、种子、灌溉、农民教育和财政支持。在财政政策方面,政府每年拨出资金支持粮食自给计划。不幸的是,印度尼西亚仍然处于实现粮食自给自足的阶段;政府仍然进口一些战略食品,如大米、玉米、大豆、糖和肉类。粮食产量低导致农业部门对国内生产总值的贡献减少。本文旨在评价政府粮食政策和财政政策支持的有效性。该研究使用二手数据,试图使用“背景、联系和证据框架”的方法进行描述。研究得出的结论是,虽然政府有强烈的承诺要拥有粮食主权,但仍难以实现粮食自给自足和粮食安全。因此,作者推荐了一套政策,其中包括政府考虑的九个优先项目。
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引用次数: 1
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Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan
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