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Japanese Abenomics Stimulus Policy: The Impact on Indonesian and Japanese Economy 日本安倍经济刺激政策:对印尼和日本经济的影响
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V18I2.48
Sigit Setiawan
To address economic crisis and promote domestic economy to re-grow, Japanese government has launched Abenomics stimulus package in January 2013 to be disbursed during period 2013-2014. This study is focused and limited to analyze the impact of Abenomics policy on Japanese GDP and its transmission effect to Indonesian GDP. This study employs quantitative analysis method, completed with descriptive analysis based on historical data and relevant literatures. Main findings from this study are Abenomics will spur Japanese GDP positively by 2,37% in 2013 and by 2,79% in 2014. Spillover effect from Japanese demand shock will bring the biggest impact on the main partner of Asian and Oceania countries, including Indonesia. Indonesia will receive additional positive impact on its growth in 2013-2014 and substractive negative impact during 2015 to early 2017, before bounce back to positive zone in the second quarter 2017 to year 2018.
为了应对经济危机,促进国内经济的再增长,日本政府于2013年1月推出了安倍经济学刺激计划,计划在2013-2014年期间实施。本研究的重点和局限在于分析安倍经济学政策对日本GDP的影响及其对印尼GDP的传导效应。本研究采用定量分析方法,在历史资料和相关文献的基础上进行描述性分析。这项研究的主要发现是,安倍经济学将在2013年和2014年分别推动日本GDP增长2.37%和2.79%。日本需求冲击的溢出效应将对包括印尼在内的亚洲和大洋洲国家的主要合作伙伴带来最大的影响。2013-2014年,印尼经济增长将受到额外的积极影响,2015年至2017年初将受到负面影响,然后在2017年第二季度至2018年反弹至正区域。
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引用次数: 0
REVITALISASI INVESTASI PENGEMBANGAN ENERGI PANAS BUMI DI INDONESIA 印度尼西亚地热能源开发投资振兴
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V17I1.33
Ragimun Ragimun
Premises as a country that is being build, requiring electrical energy very much. It is therefore necessary for the utilization of various sources of insufficiency. During this energy from fossil sources dominate the national energy needs. But this fossil energy sources will eventually run out. So that the necessary renewable energy, among other things of geothermal energy. This energy is in addition to friendly neighborhood also has a reserve that very much. Recorded 26 percent of world geothermal energy in Indonesia. However, until recently the development of new geothermal energy range from 4 percent The main obstacle is the issue of investment is still limited, as well as policy and institutional reforms to increase investment. It is therefore necessary to revitalize geothermal energy investments through several fiscal and non fiscal incentives in the form of investment attraction such as the selling price of electricity energy geothermal interest. Current selling price of geothermal electrical energy for U.S. $ 0.97. This needs to be re-evaluated, in order to attract investors in geothermal development in Indonesia.
房屋作为一个正在建设的国家,非常需要电能。因此,有必要利用各种不足的来源。在此期间,化石能源支配着国家的能源需求。但这种化石能源最终会耗尽。这样就需要可再生能源,其中包括地热能。这种能量除了友好的邻里也很有储备。印尼的地热能占世界的26%。然而,直到最近,地热新能源的开发幅度还从4%不等,主要障碍是投资问题仍然有限,以及政策和体制改革加大投资力度。因此,有必要通过一些财政和非财政激励措施,以吸引投资的形式,如电力能源地热权益的销售价格,来振兴地热能投资。目前地热电能的售价为0.97美元。为了吸引投资者投资印尼的地热开发,这一点需要重新评估。
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS PENGEMBANGAN KEBIJAKAN HUTAN TANAMAN RAKYAT SEBAGAI PENDORONG PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI 农业森林政策发展分析促进经济增长
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I2.45
Noeroso Loeloes Wahyudi
Tulisan Ilniiah ini menyajikan kerangka analisis untuk menjawab permasalahan bagaimana meningkatkan peran Hutan Tanaman Rakyat atau HTR dalam mengembangkan kapasitas domestik, Kerangka Analisis ini menyajikan analisis SWOT berasarkan data kwalitatif dan kwantitatif yang mengekplorasi perkembangan kebijakan, sumber pembiayaan dan perkembangan HTRTujuan utama penelitian ini adalah menformulasikan konsep kebijakan pembiayaan yang inovatif dengan menganalis posisi strategi pengembangan kebijakan. Konsep ini merupakan pilihan kebijakan berdasarkan implikasi strategi antara lain: ij menggunakan kekuatan dan kelemahan dalam memanfatkankan peluang, dan ii] strategi menggunakan kekuatan dan kelemahan dalam mengatasi ancaman.Peluang yang harus dimanfaatkan untuk pengembangan HTR adalah kelangkaan pasokan kayu dari hutan primer,dan komitmen pemerintah untuk mendukung HTR. Sementara identikasi faktor eksternal kekuatan antara lain-lainya kawasan hutan yang terdegradasi untuk menjadi areal HTR, banyaknya UMKM yang berdomisili disekitarnya. Sedangkan strategi yang harus dilaksanakan antara lain: i) mempercepat pembangunan HTR dengan membuka kendala yakni perijinan dan pembiayaan HTR.
这些Ilniiah文字提供了分析框架来回答问题,如何改善民间森林植物的角色还是HTR国内开发的能力,这个分析框架提供了SWOT分析取得了质的berasarkan数据和kwantitatif mengekplorasi的政策,发展和HTRTujuan发展融资的主要来源是menformulasikan概念研究与分析的创新融资政策发展政策战略位置。这是一种基于战略含义的政策选择:ij利用优势和弱点来利用优势和劣势来应对威胁。在HTR的发展中,主要森林的木材供应短缺以及政府支持HTR的承诺是被利用的机会。虽然确定了森林退化到HTR地区的外部力量因素,但附近有许多UMKM人。而必须采取的战略包括:i)通过允许许可和HTR融资等障碍,加快HTR的建设。
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引用次数: 0
IMPLEMENTING THE BSC APPROACH IN RESPONSE TO STRUCTURAL POLICY CHALLENGES IN INDONESIA: A CASE STUDY OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE'S LEADERSHIP PERSPECTIVES 实施平衡计分卡方法应对印尼结构性政策挑战:财政部领导视角的案例研究
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V17I3.17
A. Budiarso
One tool used for strategic performance management in the public sector organisations is the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) approach. The BSC can assist the definition of comprehensive strategic objectives, better key performance indicators and improved organisational performance outcomes. The BSC system not only promotes synergy and alignment of strategies among that of departmental and functional units, but also it promotes strategic communication for decision-makers to sustain high organisational performance outcomes. Based on the leadership accountability framework as a means to analyse the process of improving and sustaining public sector performance outcomes, this study also found that four key elements contributed to the successful implementation of the BSC to improve and sustain public sector performance: leadership effectiveness, strategy and HRM "fit' management, balanced performance management system and performance governance. Moreover, the research supported the hypothesis that strategic leadership is a necessary condition for the implementation of new and complex performance management tools in the Indonesian public service and for sustaining the performance improvements created by tools such as the BSC.
在公共部门组织中用于战略绩效管理的一种工具是平衡计分卡(BSC)方法。平衡计分卡可以帮助定义全面的战略目标,更好的关键绩效指标和改进的组织绩效结果。平衡计分卡系统不仅促进部门和职能单位之间的战略协同和协调,而且还促进决策者的战略沟通,以维持高组织绩效。本研究以领导力问责框架作为分析改善和维持公共部门绩效结果过程的手段,还发现成功实施平衡计分卡以改善和维持公共部门绩效的四个关键要素:领导力有效性、战略和人力资源管理“契合”管理、平衡绩效管理体系和绩效治理。此外,该研究支持这样一种假设,即战略领导是在印度尼西亚公共服务中实施新的和复杂的绩效管理工具以及维持平衡计分卡等工具所创造的绩效改进的必要条件。
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引用次数: 1
PASAR MODAL DAN PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: BIAYA KETERBUKAAN, PENGUNAAN DANA HASIL PENAWARAN UMUM, DAN PERAN PEMODAL ASING 资本市场与经济:开放的成本、公开发行的资金使用以及外资角色
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I1.26
R. M. Manurung, Andriansyah Andriansyah, Bayu Husodo, Ngapon Ngapon
This paper summarizes the results of the last three years of research conducted by the Economic Research Division of the Indonesia Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency (Bapepam-LK). The main topic of the research is related to the role of the capital market in the Indonesian economy, especially its role as the source of financing for business and as the alternative of investment for investors. The studies on the cost of disclosure, the use of IPO proceeds and the role of foreign investors will have special emphasizes.
本文总结了过去三年印度尼西亚资本市场和金融机构监管局(Bapepam-LK)经济研究部进行的研究结果。本研究的主要课题是与资本市场在印尼经济中的作用有关,特别是其作为企业融资来源和投资者投资的替代方案的作用。对披露成本、IPO收益运用和境外投资者作用的研究将会得到特别的重视。
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引用次数: 0
Study for Mainstreaming Environmental and Climate Change Policy On The Development Planning Agenda in Indonesia 将环境和气候变化政策纳入印度尼西亚发展规划议程的主流研究
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v18i3.18
J. Haryanto, A. Nurkholis
Over the past few years, environmental issues have became a major policy agenda in developed and developing countries. The government has some alternative policies that can be used as a form of the intervention either to play the role of market-based policies and government regulations as well as other options. In this context, the Government of Indonesia already issued Presidential Decree No. 61 Year 2011 on National Action Plan for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions (RAN-GRK). Based on this document, financial source for climate change (PI) and also protection, preservation of the environment (PPLH) mainly comes from the state budget, local budget, private sector, and other sources legalized by regulations. Unfortunately, the capacity for this obligation is still constrained. For this reason, public funding must be able to cooperate with the private fundingr in order to leverage the capacity. Regarding this matter, the flexibility for the allocation of state budget/local budget is not easy, due several reasons. One of that reason is the lack of policy meanstreaming PPLH the PI on the budgeting systems, the nature of the management PI and PPLH and also lack of awareness from many stakeholders. By using descriptive analysis method, this paper tries to answer these issues from the variety of scenarios, especially in the sphere of government planning and budgeting policy.
在过去几年中,环境问题已成为发达国家和发展中国家的一项主要政策议程。政府有一些可供选择的政策,既可以作为干预的一种形式,发挥市场政策和政府法规的作用,也可以作为其他选择。在这方面,印度尼西亚政府已经颁布了2011年第61号总统令,关于减少温室气体排放的国家行动计划(RAN-GRK)。根据该文件,气候变化(PI)和环境保护(PPLH)的资金来源主要来自国家预算、地方预算、私营部门以及法规认可的其他来源。不幸的是,履行这一义务的能力仍然有限。因此,公共资金必须能够与私人资金合作,以利用能力。关于这个问题,由于几个原因,国家/地方预算分配的灵活性并不容易。其中一个原因是缺乏在预算系统中同时将公私合作项目纳入公私合作项目的政策,管理公私合作项目和公私合作项目的性质以及许多利益相关者缺乏意识。本文运用描述性分析的方法,试图从不同的情境,特别是在政府规划和预算政策领域,回答这些问题。
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引用次数: 2
The MSME's Loan Guarantee through KUR Program Implementation Create Fiscal Risk 中小微企业通过KUR项目实施的贷款担保产生了财政风险
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v18i1.35
Akhmad Yasin
This loan guarantee is awarded to viable MSMEs businesses (feasible) but they are not qualified to access credit/financing from banks (nonbankable). The implementation of the micro credit program involves three parties, namely the government, corporate underwriters, and banking. Results of this study is that the position of the government as the representative of the state in the context of business contracts included in the public legal action. Furthermore, public expenditure charged to the budget of income and expenditure (budget) in the form of state capital participation (PMN) and underwriting compensation (IJP) cause the transformation of the juridical laws from the state finances as public finance to privat finance of other legal entity. Fiscal risk would occur if the IJP increased funding requirements and the addition of PMN in guarantor state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not sufficient so that resulting in the addition of a greater allocation of funds from the state budget. Under the provisions of the legislation of social welfare, fiscal risk status is a consequence of the law of state responsibility which has value, given the weighting of fiscal risk that promotes the interests and welfare of the community.
这种贷款担保授予可行的中小微企业(可行),但他们没有资格从银行获得信贷/融资(非银行)。小额信贷的实施涉及政府、企业承销商和银行三方。本研究的结果是,政府作为国家代表的立场在商业合同的背景下纳入了公共法律诉讼。此外,公共支出以国家资本参与(PMN)和承保补偿(IJP)的形式计入收支预算(budget),导致司法法律从作为公共财政的国家财政向其他法人实体的私人财政转变。如果IJP增加的资金需求和在担保国有企业(SOEs)中增加的PMN不够,从而导致从国家预算中增加更多的资金分配,则会发生财政风险。在社会福利立法的规定下,财政风险地位是国家责任法的结果,具有价值,因为财政风险的权重促进了社会的利益和福利。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Excise to Retail Price of Cigarettes Case Study of Excise System Comparison in Indonesia for the Period of2005-2010 消费税对卷烟零售价格的影响2005-2010年印尼消费税制度比较案例研究
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V17I3.12
Nasruddin Djoko Surjono
This paper analyzes the impact of implementation of ad valorem , hybrid and specific excise system periods to tobacco price. The main hypothesis HO i.e. there is no difference impact of implementation of ad valorem , hybrid and specific system period to the price. The research question is to answer what fraction of excise is passed on to consumers in each excise systems period and which one of excise system periods has the greatest negative impact on price, which is important to know, when country makes choice on appropriate excise system policy in order to reform their excise system for tobacco control. Monthly data production from 2005-2010 is explored in order to estimate tax incidence in Indonesia. In this period Indonesia has implemented ad valorem , hybrid and specific excise system consecutively. With brands consumption data in Indonesia, the model analyzes by including burden of excise in each excise system in the model. The estimation result of tax incidence model indicates that during government implement specific excise system, the impact of increasing excise is relative higher to the price.
本文分析了从价税、混合税和特定消费税三个阶段的实施对烟草价格的影响。主要假设从价、混合和特定制度时期对价格的影响没有差异。研究的问题是回答在每个消费税制度期间,消费税转嫁给消费者的比例是多少,以及哪一个消费税制度时期对价格的负面影响最大,这是重要的,当国家选择适当的消费税制度政策,以改革其烟草控制的消费税制度。从2005年至2010年的月度数据生产进行了探讨,以估计在印度尼西亚的税收发生率。在此期间,印尼先后实行了从价税、混合税和具体消费税制度。模型以印尼的品牌消费数据为基础,将各消费税制度中的消费税负担纳入模型进行分析。税收发生率模型的估计结果表明,在政府实施特定消费税制度的过程中,消费税上调对价格的影响相对较大。
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引用次数: 0
Program Restrukturisasi Mesin Industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Indonesia: Sebuah Studi Kasus Kebijakan Subsidi Pemerintah 印尼纺织业和纺织品工业重组计划:政府补贴政策案例研究
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V13I1.82
M. Hermawan
Subsidi yang sering dianggap distorsi dalam perekonomian, sebenarnya juga diperlukan sebagai sarana bagi pemerintah untuk membantu sektor-sektor potensial yang mendapat kesulitan untuk berkembang. Dalam hal Industri TPT yang sempat dipersepsikan sebagai sunset industry, terutama setelah banyaknya kredit macet pasca krisis moneter, sebenarnya menyimpan potensi ekonomi yang besar apabila pertumbuhannya tetap dijaga. Sebagai sektor yang berprestasi dalam menyumbangkan PDB, ekspor nonmigas, penggerak investasi dan penyerap tenaga kerja, ITPT yang saat ini sedang menghadapi problem lemahnya daya saing akibat rendahnya efisiensi produksi layak mendapat bantuan dari pemerintah melalui subsidi langsung yang ditransmisikan dengan tepat.
经常被视为经济衰退的补贴,实际上也是政府帮助陷入困境的潜在部门发展的必要手段。就TPT工业而言,它被认为是落日工业,特别是在金融危机后大量信贷损失之后,如果其增长继续下去,实际上就保留了巨大的经济潜力。作为gdp、出口国、投资机构和劳资机构的成功部门,目前正面临生产效率低下导致的竞争力下降的问题,该项目值得政府通过适当的直接补贴提供援助。
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引用次数: 0
The Effectiveness of Control Policy of Subsidized Fuel Consumption in Java-Bali 爪哇-巴厘地区补贴燃油消费控制政策的有效性
Pub Date : 2015-11-09 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V18I3.28
Praptono Djunedi
It has been more than three decades that the government provided subsidized fuel. The cheap fuel price leads to consumption of the fuel increase. Although the government has implemented some policies, subsidy on fuel remains hike in the budget. Therefore, by issuing MEMR Regulation on Control of Fuel Consumption, the government implement control policy of subsidized fuel consumption on official vehicles and others. The goals of the policy are to control of the subsidy through reducing the use of low-quality fuel (RON 88). Refer to the above illustration, this paper aims to describe the effectiveness of the policy and to propose policy recommendations to be effective. To measure effectiveness of the policy, this paper uses paired t test. The tool to know whether a significant difference on subsidized and non subsidized fuel sales between before and after the policy implemented. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the policy is not effective. To be effective, it is proposed as follows (1) there is adequate fuel cost allocation for each official vehicle, (2) optimization of the vehicle’s benefit, (3) the policy needs strong monitoring system, and (4) there is sanction for those who violate the policy.
政府提供燃料补贴已经有30多年了。低廉的燃料价格导致燃料的消耗量增加。虽然政府已经实施了一些政策,但燃料补贴在预算中仍然很高。因此,政府通过颁布《MEMR燃油消耗控制条例》,对公务用车等实施补贴燃油消耗的控制政策。该政策的目标是通过减少使用低质量燃料(RON 88)来控制补贴。参考上面的插图,本文旨在描述政策的有效性,并提出有效的政策建议。为了衡量政策的有效性,本文使用配对t检验。该工具可了解政策实施前后燃油补贴与非补贴销售是否存在显著差异。根据结果,可以得出结论,该政策是无效的。为使其有效,建议如下:(1)每辆公务车的燃油成本分配充足;(2)优化车辆的利益;(3)政策需要强有力的监控系统;(4)对违反政策的人进行制裁。
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引用次数: 0
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Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan
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