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Stock Market Integration as a part of Financial Market in the ASEAN Economic Community 作为东盟经济共同体金融市场一部分的股票市场一体化
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I1.31
Yoopi Abimanyu
This paper is trying to assess whether the stock market in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, among others Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippine, Malaysia, and Vietnam, are integrated monthly data from January 2000 until August 2014. To support that analysis, a somewhat similar approached is done for the foreign exchange market in the same ASEAN member countries. The empirical results suggest that the ASEAN stock markets are co-integrated (except Philippines). Also, there is a positive relationship between Indonesia's and other ASEAN member countries' foreign exchange market. Those analysis were done in relationship with the new regional condition, faced by the new government just recently elected, that is, the ASEAN common market, which would be implemented in 2015.
本文试图评估东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)国家(其中包括印度尼西亚、泰国、新加坡、菲律宾、马来西亚和越南)的股票市场是否整合了2000年1月至2014年8月的月度数据。为了支持这一分析,对同一东盟成员国的外汇市场也采用了类似的方法。实证结果表明,东盟股票市场是协整的(菲律宾除外)。此外,印尼与其他东盟成员国的外汇市场之间也存在正相关关系。这些分析都是在新的地区形势下进行的,新一届政府刚刚当选,也就是东盟共同市场,将于2015年实施。
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS EFEKTIVITAS ALOKASI ANGGARAN PROGRAM KEMISKINAN PADA KEMENTERIAN NEGARA/LEMBAGA 分析国务院/研究所贫困项目预算分配的有效性
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I3.63
S. Rahayu
Anggaran Program Kemiskinan melalui Kementerian/Lembaga dalam kurun waktu tahun 2006 - 2011 (sekitar 5 tahun] mencapai sebesar Rp351,5 triliun, hanya mampu mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin sebesar 9,3 juta orang sehingga dalam tahun 2011 jumlah penduduk miskin di Indonesia sekitar 30,024 juta atau sebesar 11,5-12,5 persen dari jumlah penduduk Indonesia. Agar Indonesia terbebas dari kemiskinan tanpa perbaikan anggaran Program Kemiskinan maka dibutuhkan waktu sekitar 15 tahun, dan biaya sekitar Rpl.054,5 triliun. Oleh karena itu, untuk mendorong percepatan pengurangan penduduk miskin, perlu dirumuskan alternatif skenario anggaran versi baru melalui pendekatan bantuan langsung bersyarat (wajib menabung) setara dengan UMR nasional sebesar Rp908.800 per bulan diberikan kepada 17.488,007 kepala keluarga (KK) miskin, dalam waktu tiga tahun sebesar Rp572,151 triliun, diharapkan penduduk miskin sudah menjadi sejahtera, sehingga terjadi penghematan anggaran sebesar Rp482,35 triliun, dan penghematan waktu sekitar 12 tahun akan direkomendasikan dalam artikel ini.
贫困项目预算之内通过协会(ministry of food - 2006年- 2011年(约5年)到达Rp351,5万亿,穷人只能减少9.3万,2011年人口中穷人在印尼30.024亿或全国总人口的百分之11,5-12,5印尼。如果不改善贫困计划的预算,印尼要摆脱贫困,需要大约15年的时间,大约需要15年的时间来实现Rpl. 054.5万亿的成本。因此,为了鼓励加速减少贫困人口,需要制定替代方案预算通过直接援助方法假释新版本(强制性的储蓄)的全国最低工资相当于每月Rp908.800给穷人家庭17.488,007头(KK),三年内Rp572,151万亿,穷人的预期已经成为繁荣,从而发生财政紧缩Rp482,35万亿,这篇文章推荐了大约12年的节省时间。
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引用次数: 0
Dampak Moratorium Hutan Terhadap Ekonomi Indonesia : Analisis Menggunakan Model IRSA-Indonesia 5 森林暂停对印尼经济的影响:使用irsa -印度尼西亚模式5进行分析
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I3.127
Rakhmindyarto Rakhmindyarto
This paper discusses the economic effects of the forest moratorium policy which has been launched by the government through the Presidential Decree no. 10 of 2011 dated 20th of May 2011. The issues addressed in the paper are the impacts on: land uses and natural forest area, carbon emissions, domestic prices, export-import, GDP, and poverty rate. Using the quantitative method of IRSA-Indonesia 5 - an inter-regional CGE model, the results show that the forest moratorium policy has both positive and negative impacts on Indonesia's economy.
本文讨论了政府通过总统令颁布的森林暂停政策的经济效果。2011年5月20日,2011年10号。本文讨论的问题是对土地利用和天然林面积、碳排放、国内价格、进出口、GDP和贫困率的影响。利用irsa -印度尼西亚5 -区域间CGE模型的定量方法,结果表明森林暂停政策对印度尼西亚经济既有积极的影响,也有消极的影响。
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引用次数: 1
ANALISIS PEMBERIAN BEA MASUK DITANGGUNG PEMERINTAH (BM DTP) TAHUN 20101 政府对关税的分析(BM pef)始于20101年
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I3.67
Agunan P Samosir
To augment people's purchasing power, to maintain business resilience and to raise business and industry's competitiveness, Government with its fiscal policy provides BMDTP facility. The provision was initiated with the intention to lessen the crisis impact in the midst of 2008. The measure was expected to be able to provide sufficient public goods and services. Besides, the effected real sektor may survive and raise its competitiveness. The quick research by PKAPBN concluded that the realized facility utilization trough BMDTP by Government was not optimal. The causes of low realization of BMDTP were identified, among others : (1J the mismatch between BMDTP provision with the needed sektors or industries; [2] the delayed issuance of PMK and BMDTP technical guidance; (3) the lack of knowledge of Ministry/Institution Financial Disbursement Official (Pembina K/L and KPA) on the industries having the access to acquire BMDTP. Government needs to review the cost and benefit of BMDTP on industries. The cost may be reviewed from production, and contribution on tax payment and employment creation. The Ministry/Institution or Echelon 1 which can evaluate BMDTP is FPO, MOF as the coordinator or chair of the evaluation team, and well supported by each Ministry/Institution responsible for particular industry. The task has been conducted by FPO since August 2010 and is still ongoing. In accordance with article 9 in each PMK BMDTP 2010, the evaluation timeliness may be extended to the end of February 2011.
为了增强人们的购买力,保持商业弹性,提高工商业的竞争力,政府通过其财政政策提供BMDTP设施。该条款是在2008年中期提出的,目的是减轻危机的影响。该措施有望提供足够的公共产品和服务。此外,受影响的实体部门可以生存并提高其竞争力。PKAPBN的快速研究得出结论,政府通过BMDTP实现的设施利用并不理想。确定了BMDTP实现低的原因,其中包括:(1)BMDTP提供与所需部门或行业之间的不匹配;[2]延迟发布PMK和bmmdtp技术指南;(3)部门/机构财务支出官员(Pembina K/L和KPA)对有机会获得BMDTP的行业缺乏了解。政府需要审查BMDTP对工业的成本和收益。成本可以从生产、纳税贡献和创造就业三个方面来考察。能够对BMDTP进行评估的部委/机构或第一梯队是FPO,财政部作为评估小组的协调员或主席,并得到各部委/机构的大力支持。该任务自2010年8月以来一直由FPO执行,目前仍在进行中。根据每个PMK BMDTP 2010的第9条,评估的及时性可以延长到2011年2月底。
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引用次数: 1
Mechanisms of Budgeting on Public Service Obligation And Premium Subsidy in Agricultural Insurance 农业保险公共服务义务与保费补贴预算机制研究
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V19I1.21
M. Z. Abidin
This study aims to determine the mechanism of funding the assignment (Public Service Obligation/PSO) to State Owner Enterprises and mechanism of budgeting for the provision premium payment of agricultural insurance. This research uses descriptive qualitative method. The process of analysis is performed using the laws, the theory of public finance, and insurance. Collecting data in this study using a literature study. The result of research shows that the assignment of agricultural insurance and the provision of premium payments are two separate programs and each requires its own funding proposal. Budget mechanisms to implement agricultural insurance assignment and assistance insurance premiums is guided by the Law 17/2003 and Government Regulation 90/2010. Proposed activities should be included in the Work Plan and Budget of the Ministry of Agriculture as technical ministries and proposed into the Draft State Budget. Furthermore, the budget allocation in the budget document's of the Ministry of Agriculture implemented in accordance with the statutory provisions pertaining to the procedures for budget execution. The assignment of agricultural insurance mechanisms implemented under Law 19/2003 and Government Regulation 45/2005. The payment mechanism at the expense of the state budget for the payment of a premium subsidy based on the Government Regulation 45/2013.
本研究旨在确定国有企业分配(Public Service Obligation/PSO)的筹资机制和农业保险提供保费支付的预算机制。本研究采用描述性定性方法。分析的过程是使用法律、公共财政理论和保险来进行的。本研究采用文献研究法收集数据。研究结果表明,农业保险的分配和支付是两个独立的项目,每个项目都需要自己的资金建议。实施农业保险转让和援助保险费的预算机制以第17/2003号法律和第90/2010号政府条例为指导。拟开展的活动应列入农业部作为技术部门的工作计划和预算,并列入国家预算草案。此外,农业部预算文件中的预算分配按照有关预算执行程序的法定规定执行。根据第19/2003号法律和第45/2005号政府条例实施的农业保险机制的分配。根据第45/2013号政府条例,以国家预算为代价支付保费补贴的支付机制。
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引用次数: 1
KETAHANAN SEKTOR KEUANGAN DAN SHADOWBANKING: ANALISA TERHADAP INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DI INDONESIA 财务部门持续性和SHADOWBANKING:分析印尼的融资行业
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V16I3.57
Adriyanto Adriyanto
The failure of supervision instrument on shadow banking practice in the US has triggered financial collapse and spread accross sovereignities. The G20 has asked FSB to undertake in depth analysis of shadow banking progress along with needed recommendations to overcome the weaknesses. This paper attempts to analyze the shadow banking practice in Indonesia particularly in the consumer finance industry by using the flow of fund analysis recommended by FSB and several relevant financial ratios. The size of credit intermediation in this industry only accounts for 3% of GDP compared to bank credit accounting for 30% of GDP in 2011, however the credit growth in finance industry has superseded banking sector. The consumer finance industry are dominantly reliant on bank lending and bond which reduces the susceptibility of market shock. The asset securitization is not common in this industry. The financial sector authority has imposed strick regulation on this industry to ensure industry's financial health. Despite industry's ability to meet those requirements, the high dependency on debt for operation has raised concern for stronger equity increase. Further, the expansive credit intermediation in this industry can bring liquidity problem which requires further regulation.
美国影子银行监管工具的失灵,引发了金融崩溃,并蔓延至各个主权国家。G20已要求金融稳定理事会对影子银行的进展进行深入分析,并提出克服这些弱点的必要建议。本文试图通过使用FSB推荐的资金流动分析和几个相关的财务比率来分析印度尼西亚的影子银行实践,特别是在消费金融行业。与2011年银行信贷占GDP的30%相比,该行业的信贷中介规模仅占GDP的3%,但金融业的信贷增长已经取代了银行业。消费金融行业主要依赖银行贷款和债券,这降低了对市场冲击的敏感性。资产证券化在这个行业并不常见。金融部门当局对该行业实施了严格的监管,以确保行业的财务健康。尽管该行业有能力满足这些要求,但运营对债务的高度依赖引发了对更强劲股本增长的担忧。此外,该行业信贷中介的扩张性可能带来流动性问题,需要进一步监管。
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引用次数: 0
Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap USD dengan Menggunakan Model GARCH 美元与美元的汇率与美元的汇率使用GARCH模型
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v20i2.187
Nugroho Agung Wijoyo
Makalah ini menggunakan teknik ekonometrik Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) untuk meramalkan perubahan nilai tukar yang berfrekuensi tinggi di Indonesia. GARCH, suatu model non-linear, umumnya digunakan untuk data keuangan berfrekuensi tinggi, seperti nilai tukar harian Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat. Penelitian ini menilai perilaku dari nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat dengan membuat model dari perubahan nilai tukar harian dalam bentuk logaritma untuk periode 3 Januari 2000 sampai 16 Desember 2015. Periode ini meliputi era volatilitas tinggi dan turbulensi keuangan, seperti yang terjadi pada semester kedua tahun 2015 ketika nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat turun menjadi Rp.14.500. Menggunakan model GARCH dalam menetapkan heteroskedastisitas, studi ini menemukan bahwa model GARCH sangat mencerminkan sifat empiris natural logaritma dari nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat pada tingkat signifikansi 1%.
该论文采用通用的自动背汇式经济学技术(GARCH)来预测印尼频繁的汇率变化。GARCH是一种非线性模式,通常用于高频金融数据,如美元和美元的日汇率。本研究通过在2000年1月3日至2015年12月16日期间建立一个对数日汇率变化的模式来衡量美国美元与美元的行为。这一时期包括了一个高度波动和金融动荡的时代,比如2015年第二学期,卢比与美国美元的汇率下降到14500卢比。利用GARCH模型来定义heteroskedas创始人,这项研究发现,GARCH模型深刻地反映了美元与美国美元汇率的自然经验对数本质,其重要性为1%。
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引用次数: 2
Peran Alokatif Pemerintah melalui Pengadaan Barang/Jasa dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia 政府通过采购的无端作用及其对印尼经济的影响
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V20I2.186
Azwar Azwar
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari peran alokatif pemerintah melalui pengadaan barang dan jasa terhadap perekonomian Indonesia yang diwakili oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi (PDB) dan hubungan timbal balik di antara keduanya. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan analisis model Vector Autoregression (VAR) melalui pengujian Impulse Response Function (IRF) dan Variance Decomposition (VD), secara empiris penelitian ini menemukan bahwa: (i) shock atau perubahan nilai realisasi pengadaan barang/jasa pemerintah berdampak positif terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Respon positif perekonomian ini berlangsung cepat dan terus berlangsung dalam jangka panjang secara permanen, di mana 91,12 % variasi pembentukan indikator perekonomian Indonesia (pada akhir periode penelitian), berasal dari sektor pengadaan barang/jasa pemerintah; (ii) sebaliknya, perekonomian Indonesia juga memberikan dampak positif terhadap pengadaan barang/jasa pemerintah. Namun, dampak positif ini hanya berlangsung sementara. Shock atau perubahan yang terjadi pada perkenomian dalam jangka waktu lebih lama akan memberikan dampak negatif terhadap pengadaan barang/jasa pemerintah. Respon negatif ini terus berlangsung dengan tren yang terus meningkat dalam jangka panjang.
本研究旨在分析政府通过采购商品和服务对印尼经济的亲和力作用的影响。通过测试不同反应功能(IRF)和方差解构(VD)分析模型的方法,本研究从经验中发现:(i)政府采购实现价值实现的震惊或变化对印尼经济产生了积极的影响。这种积极的经济反应正在迅速并持续到永久,其中91.12%的变化形成印尼经济指标(在研究阶段结束)来自政府采购部门;另一方面,印尼经济也对政府采购或服务产生了积极的影响。然而,这种积极的影响只是暂时的。长期的冲击或变化将对政府采购产生负面影响。这些负面反应在长期增长的趋势中继续存在。
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引用次数: 29
Political Economic Determinants of Growth Acceleration: A Korea-Indonesia Comparative Study 经济增长加速的政治经济决定因素:韩国与印尼的比较研究
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.31685/KEK.V20I1.182
I. W. Wardhana
This paper conducts an empirical and comparative analysis in political economy of growth acceleration determinants in Korea and Indonesia. It aims to reveal plausible explanations on Korean development success compared to Indonesia. This research provides an in-depth study parallel to a case study by using comparable variables. It examines five determinants namely initial conditions, quality of institutions, public policy innovations, socio-political circumstances, and access to external resources. The evidence exhibits Korea has better conditions in all determinants. Lesson learned from its development experiences could improve the effectiveness of the Korea official development aid.
本文从政治经济学的角度对韩国和印度尼西亚的经济增长加速决定因素进行了实证和比较分析。它的目的是找出与印度尼西亚相比韩国发展成功的合理解释。本研究通过使用可比变量,提供了与案例研究平行的深入研究。它考察了五个决定因素,即初始条件、制度质量、公共政策创新、社会政治环境和获得外部资源的机会。证据表明,韩国在所有决定因素方面都具有较好的条件。从其发展经验中吸取的教训可以提高韩国官方发展援助的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
Strategi Pemerintah Indonesia Dalam Menarik Kunjungan Turis Mancanegara 印尼政府吸引外国游客的战略
Pub Date : 2016-04-01 DOI: 10.31685/kek.v20i1.181
Mahpud Sujai
Pariwisata merupakan salah satu sektor yang penting bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Sumbangan langsung sektor pariwisata terhadap PDB mencapai lebih dari 3,8% pada 2012 atau mencapai hingga 9% dari PDB jika mempertimbangkan multiplier effect dari PDB. Walaupun pertumbuhan sektor pariwisata Indonesia tinggi, jika dibandingkan dengan negaranegara kompetitor lainnya di kawasan ASEAN maka Indonesia masih jauh tertinggal. Mengingat potensi sektor pariwisata Indonesia di masa depan, maka diperlukan berbagai strategi untuk menarik lebih banyak wisatawan mancanegara dan mengembangkan pariwisata Indonesia. Penelitian ini menganalisis berbagai strategi yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah dalam menarik lebih banyak wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia. Metodologi yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis SWOT untuk menyiapkan strategi yang tepat bagi pengembangan sektor pariwisata di Indonesia. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan berbagai strategi yang harus diambil dan diperbaiki Pemerintah untuk meningkatkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia.
旅游业是印尼经济的重要部门之一。旅游业对gdp的直接贡献在2012年超过3.8%,或者在考虑到gdp的多种作用下达到gdp的9%。尽管印尼旅游业的增长很高,但与东盟地区的其他竞争对手相比,印尼仍然远远落后。考虑到印尼未来旅游业的潜力,需要各种策略来吸引更多的外国游客和发展印尼旅游业。这项研究分析了政府将更多外国游客吸引到印尼的策略。使用的方法是描述性分析和SWOT分析,为印尼旅游业的发展制定适当的战略。该研究建议政府应该采取和改进的策略,以增加外国游客对印尼的访问。
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引用次数: 11
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Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan
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