Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan metode cash forecasting pemerintah yang akurat dengan menggunakan metode ekonometrik berbasis data time-series (Dekomposisi, Holt-Winter, dan ARIMA) dengan dua tipe data input (nominal dan bobot) dan dua unit data (3 dan 5 tahun). Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa tidak semua metode ekonometrik mampu memberikan cash forecasting yang lebih baik, ARIMA dan Holt Winter merupakan metode yang lebih sering menghasilkan tingkat akurasi paling baik. Metode CPIN yang saat ini digunakan tidak selalu mampu memberikan akurasi terbaik ditunjukkan dari 19 akun, metode CPIN hanya memberikan akurasi forecasting terbaik pada 4 akun. Pada beberapa jenis pendapatan maupun belanja, indikasi akurasi forecasting tidak menunjuk pada satu metode tertentu. Hal ini disebabkan danya peningkatan yang signifikan pada akhir tahun (khususnya bulan Desember) yang mengakibatkan penurunan akurasi suatu metode dibandingkan dengan metode lainnya. Metode cash forecasting terakurat pada akun belanja seluruhnya diperoleh dengan menggunakan data tiga tahun terakhir, hal ini menunjukkan adanya perubahan pola realisasi belanja antara lima dan tiga tahun terakhir.
{"title":"Pengembangan Metode Cash Forecasting Pemerintah: Studi Kasus Saldo Kas Pemerintah 2009 – 2011","authors":"Eko Sumando","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I1.284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I1.284","url":null,"abstract":"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan metode cash forecasting pemerintah yang akurat dengan menggunakan metode ekonometrik berbasis data time-series (Dekomposisi, Holt-Winter, dan ARIMA) dengan dua tipe data input (nominal dan bobot) dan dua unit data (3 dan 5 tahun). Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa tidak semua metode ekonometrik mampu memberikan cash forecasting yang lebih baik, ARIMA dan Holt Winter merupakan metode yang lebih sering menghasilkan tingkat akurasi paling baik. Metode CPIN yang saat ini digunakan tidak selalu mampu memberikan akurasi terbaik ditunjukkan dari 19 akun, metode CPIN hanya memberikan akurasi forecasting terbaik pada 4 akun. Pada beberapa jenis pendapatan maupun belanja, indikasi akurasi forecasting tidak menunjuk pada satu metode tertentu. Hal ini disebabkan danya peningkatan yang signifikan pada akhir tahun (khususnya bulan Desember) yang mengakibatkan penurunan akurasi suatu metode dibandingkan dengan metode lainnya. Metode cash forecasting terakurat pada akun belanja seluruhnya diperoleh dengan menggunakan data tiga tahun terakhir, hal ini menunjukkan adanya perubahan pola realisasi belanja antara lima dan tiga tahun terakhir. ","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121427549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
AbstrakOptimalisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik terkendala oleh mahalnya harga gas yang sampai di tangan industri pengguna gas domestik. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, pemerintah telah mengeluarkan insentif fiskal berupa Perpres nomor 40 tahun 2016 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis dampak dari insentif fiskal tersebut terhadap perekonomian nasional. Hasil simulasi dengan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Fiskal Dinamis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penetapan harga gas bumi tertentu dapat meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian nasional. Hal tersebut ditandai dengan adanya peningkatan GDP pada kisaran 0,12% - 0,13% pada jangka menengah. Pada sisi industri, harga input gas yang lebih rendah akan memangkas biaya produksi sehingga membuat output industri menjadi lebih murah kompetitif. Industri yang mengalami peningkatan output antara lain industri besi baja, industri pupuk, industri keramik, industri kaca, industri barang-barang dari karet, industri pulp & kertas, dan industri makanan & minuman.AbstractExpensive domestic gas price has constrained the natural gas utilization by the domestic industry. To deal with this situation, the government has issued fiscal incentives of Presidential Regulation number 40 of 2016 on the Natural Gas Price Regulation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the fiscal incentives to the economy. The Simulation result with Dynamic Fiscal CGE model shows that overall, the fiscal incentive will improve the performance of the national economy. The GDP increases in the range of 0.12% - 0.13% in the medium term. On the micro side, lower gas input prices will lower production costs, thus making industrial output cheaper and more competitive. The output of the following Industries are increasing: steel, fertilizer, ceramic, glass, rubber, pulp & paper, and food & beverage
{"title":"Analisis Dampak Insentif Fiskal Penetapan Harga Gas Bagi Industri Domestik Terhadap Perekonomian: Pendekatan Model CGE Dinamis","authors":"Andang Nugroho, H. Amir","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I1.322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I1.322","url":null,"abstract":"AbstrakOptimalisasi pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk kebutuhan domestik terkendala oleh mahalnya harga gas yang sampai di tangan industri pengguna gas domestik. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, pemerintah telah mengeluarkan insentif fiskal berupa Perpres nomor 40 tahun 2016 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis dampak dari insentif fiskal tersebut terhadap perekonomian nasional. Hasil simulasi dengan model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Fiskal Dinamis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan penetapan harga gas bumi tertentu dapat meningkatkan kinerja perekonomian nasional. Hal tersebut ditandai dengan adanya peningkatan GDP pada kisaran 0,12% - 0,13% pada jangka menengah. Pada sisi industri, harga input gas yang lebih rendah akan memangkas biaya produksi sehingga membuat output industri menjadi lebih murah kompetitif. Industri yang mengalami peningkatan output antara lain industri besi baja, industri pupuk, industri keramik, industri kaca, industri barang-barang dari karet, industri pulp & kertas, dan industri makanan & minuman.AbstractExpensive domestic gas price has constrained the natural gas utilization by the domestic industry. To deal with this situation, the government has issued fiscal incentives of Presidential Regulation number 40 of 2016 on the Natural Gas Price Regulation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the fiscal incentives to the economy. The Simulation result with Dynamic Fiscal CGE model shows that overall, the fiscal incentive will improve the performance of the national economy. The GDP increases in the range of 0.12% - 0.13% in the medium term. On the micro side, lower gas input prices will lower production costs, thus making industrial output cheaper and more competitive. The output of the following Industries are increasing: steel, fertilizer, ceramic, glass, rubber, pulp & paper, and food & beverage","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131341049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyzes tax avoidance risk assessment including dimension and magnitude of tax avoidance risk exposure using several enterprise-related and government-related variables. Providing far-reaching analysis and examining a relatively unexplored area of conforming tax avoidance, this study employs two measurements of tax avoidance including non-conforming and conforming tax avoidance. As an extensive analysis, this paper also examines the magnitude of tax avoidance responsiveness with respect to different types of enterprises including Permanent Establishment and foreign-invested enterprises. The results drawn from this study are paramount as the empirical approach to in tax policy formulation. Risk profiles suggested in this research are pertinent to risk engine of Compliance Risk Management (CRM) and also beneficial for Risk-Based Audit strategy formulation. Ensuring the best-fit policy formulation, these results revealed that application of tax authority’s strategy to hike tax compliance should be more likely to prevention rather than reaction. Furthermore, in the brain area of academic research, the findings also contribute to the field of tax literature by providing simultaneous empirical models including conforming and non-conforming tax avoidance model, which has been relatively unexplored in prior studies.
{"title":"Empirical Approach of Tax Avoidance Risk Assessment","authors":"Agung Satyadini","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I1.344","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I1.344","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes tax avoidance risk assessment including dimension and magnitude of tax avoidance risk exposure using several enterprise-related and government-related variables. Providing far-reaching analysis and examining a relatively unexplored area of conforming tax avoidance, this study employs two measurements of tax avoidance including non-conforming and conforming tax avoidance. As an extensive analysis, this paper also examines the magnitude of tax avoidance responsiveness with respect to different types of enterprises including Permanent Establishment and foreign-invested enterprises. The results drawn from this study are paramount as the empirical approach to in tax policy formulation. Risk profiles suggested in this research are pertinent to risk engine of Compliance Risk Management (CRM) and also beneficial for Risk-Based Audit strategy formulation. Ensuring the best-fit policy formulation, these results revealed that application of tax authority’s strategy to hike tax compliance should be more likely to prevention rather than reaction. Furthermore, in the brain area of academic research, the findings also contribute to the field of tax literature by providing simultaneous empirical models including conforming and non-conforming tax avoidance model, which has been relatively unexplored in prior studies.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122256603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Local election (pilkada) become a political phenomenon impact to various other sectors, not least the economic sector. Local elections in Indonesia are conducted at district and provincial levels. The incumbent candidate will use their power to control the fiscal sector in the region to improve their electability. One of the effort is to improve performance of the regional economy that will impact on the new job creation as the trade-off concept in the Phillips curve. Empirical results indicate that district/municipal election significantly influences the absorption of informal sector workers. A year before the district-level elections, an increase of informal sector workers by 3.39%, in the other hand, it reduces formal sector employment by 5.54%. Different results are shown in the provincial elections, where one year before the pilkada has no impact on the formal sector. When district/municipal and provincial elections are held in the same year, the absorption of informal sector workers decreased by 4.77% while the formal sector increased by 8.28%. When the incumbent candidate participate the next election, the informal workers increase 6.58% while formal employment does not affected.
{"title":"Pengaruh Pemilihan Kepala Daerah Terhadap Pasar Tenaga Kerja: Analisis Sektor Formal Dan Informal Level Kabupaten/Kota Di Pulau Jawa","authors":"B. Gunawan","doi":"10.31685/kek.v2i2.263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v2i2.263","url":null,"abstract":"Local election (pilkada) become a political phenomenon impact to various other sectors, not least the economic sector. Local elections in Indonesia are conducted at district and provincial levels. The incumbent candidate will use their power to control the fiscal sector in the region to improve their electability. One of the effort is to improve performance of the regional economy that will impact on the new job creation as the trade-off concept in the Phillips curve. Empirical results indicate that district/municipal election significantly influences the absorption of informal sector workers. A year before the district-level elections, an increase of informal sector workers by 3.39%, in the other hand, it reduces formal sector employment by 5.54%. Different results are shown in the provincial elections, where one year before the pilkada has no impact on the formal sector. When district/municipal and provincial elections are held in the same year, the absorption of informal sector workers decreased by 4.77% while the formal sector increased by 8.28%. When the incumbent candidate participate the next election, the informal workers increase 6.58% while formal employment does not affected.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133754312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Penerapan pola pengelolaan keuangan Badan Layanan Umum (BLU) untuk penyediaan layanan barang dan jasa sedang dilakukan di beberapa lembaga pemerintah, salah satunya di lembaga penelitian dan pengembangan (litbang) di bidang panas bumi. Di lain sisi, pemerintah juga telah menyusun target pemanfaatan panas bumi dalam Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN), dan regulasi yang mendukung pengembangan panas bumi, sehingga iklim bisnis panas bumi di Indonesia saat ini cukup kondusif. Tujuan kajian ini adalah menyusun strategi dan rekomendasi untuk pengembangan BLU litbang panas bumi dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif untuk memaparkan tentang potensi, tantangan, dan strategi pengembangan BLU litbang panas bumi, serta rekomendasi untuk dapat melakukan strategi pengembangannya. Tantangan utama dalam kegiatan BLU di bidang litbang panas bumi adalah regulasi, perubahan pola pikir, dan keterbatasan kompetensi yang dimiliki. Potensi terbesar BLU litbang panas bumi adalah kondisi pemanfaatan energi panas bumi yang masih sangat sedikit dibanding jumlah cadangan yang ada, sehingga peluang bisnis sangat terbuka, ditambah keuntungan secara birokrasi yang dimiliki BLU sebagai lembaga pemerintah. Secara garis besar strategi pengembangannya lebih dititikberatkan pada analisis terhadap kebutuhan pasar untuk pengembangan panas bumi yang dapat dijadikan peluang oleh BLU litbang panas bumi. Rekomendasi untuk BLU litbang panas bumi telah disusun di akhir kajian agar dapat mendukung strategi pengembangannya.
{"title":"Potensi dan Tantangan Badan Layanan Umum di Bidang Penelitian dan Pengembangan Panas Bumi","authors":"Lia Putriyana","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I2.361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I2.361","url":null,"abstract":"Penerapan pola pengelolaan keuangan Badan Layanan Umum (BLU) untuk penyediaan layanan barang dan jasa sedang dilakukan di beberapa lembaga pemerintah, salah satunya di lembaga penelitian dan pengembangan (litbang) di bidang panas bumi. Di lain sisi, pemerintah juga telah menyusun target pemanfaatan panas bumi dalam Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN), dan regulasi yang mendukung pengembangan panas bumi, sehingga iklim bisnis panas bumi di Indonesia saat ini cukup kondusif. Tujuan kajian ini adalah menyusun strategi dan rekomendasi untuk pengembangan BLU litbang panas bumi dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif untuk memaparkan tentang potensi, tantangan, dan strategi pengembangan BLU litbang panas bumi, serta rekomendasi untuk dapat melakukan strategi pengembangannya. Tantangan utama dalam kegiatan BLU di bidang litbang panas bumi adalah regulasi, perubahan pola pikir, dan keterbatasan kompetensi yang dimiliki. Potensi terbesar BLU litbang panas bumi adalah kondisi pemanfaatan energi panas bumi yang masih sangat sedikit dibanding jumlah cadangan yang ada, sehingga peluang bisnis sangat terbuka, ditambah keuntungan secara birokrasi yang dimiliki BLU sebagai lembaga pemerintah. Secara garis besar strategi pengembangannya lebih dititikberatkan pada analisis terhadap kebutuhan pasar untuk pengembangan panas bumi yang dapat dijadikan peluang oleh BLU litbang panas bumi. Rekomendasi untuk BLU litbang panas bumi telah disusun di akhir kajian agar dapat mendukung strategi pengembangannya.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126820352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research aims at examining the effect of local election to regional head on the local government budget allocation. Sample of the study consists of local government election in Java Island at year 2015. The study expect that incumbent engage in budget manipulation at the election year. The result of the study shows that there is different in the donation expenditure, social assistance expenditure and investment expenditure between pre-election year and election year. There is increase in donation expenditure, regional head increase donation expenditure to increase his performance. However, the increase of donation expenditure through decrease in investment expenditure and social assistance expenditure. Further test shows that incumbent that running for election also use his discretion to decrease service and goods expenditure. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui adanya perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan sosial, belanja barang jasa dan belanja modal dalam APBD pemerintah daerah pada saat pelaksanaan pemilihan umum kepala daerah. Penelitian dilakukan pada 52 daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Jawa yang melaksanakan pemilukada pada tahun 2015. Untuk menganalisis data, penelitian ini menggunakan statistik deskriptif yang menginformasikan tentang nilai minimum, nilai maksimum, rata – rata (mean) dan standar deviasi (standard deviation). Penelitian ini menggunakan uji-t untuk menguji perbedaan alokasi belanja pada daerah sebelum dan pada saat pemilukada, dengan cara melakukan Uji Paired Sample t-Test. Hasil penelitian yaitu terdapat perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan sosial dan belanja modal antara periode sebelum dan pada saat pemilukada. Hasil ini konsisten pada daerah yang dipimpin oleh petahana yang mengikuti pemilukada dan petahana yang tidak mengikuti pemilukada.
本研究旨在检视地方首长选举对地方政府预算分配的影响。研究样本为2015年爪哇岛地方政府选举。该研究预计在任者会在选举年操纵预算。研究结果表明，选举前年与选举年在捐赠支出、社会救助支出和投资支出方面存在差异。捐赠支出增加，区域负责人增加捐赠支出以提高其绩效。然而，捐赠支出的增加是通过减少投资支出和社会救助支出来实现的。进一步的测试表明，参加竞选的在职者也会利用自己的自由裁量权减少服务和商品支出。摘要:penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui adanya perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan social, belanja barang jasa dan belanja modal dalam APBD pemerintah daerah paada saat pelaksanaan pemilihan umum kepala daerah。Penelitian dilakukan pada 52 daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Jawa yang melaksanakan pemilukada pada tahun 2015。Untuk menganalysis数据，penelitian ini menggunakan statistical deskritif yang menginformasikan tentang nilai minimum, nilai maximum, rata - rata(平均值)and standard deviasi(标准差)。配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验:配对样本t检验。Hasil penelitian yitu terdapat perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan social dan belanja modal antara period sebelum dan paada saat pemilukada。哈西尼一贯的帕达·达尔拉·杨，dippimpin oleh佩塔哈娜，杨，mengikuti, pemilukada，佩塔哈娜，杨，mengikuti, pemilukada。
{"title":"Dampak Pemilihan Kepala Daerah terhadap Alokasi Belanja Daerah","authors":"Doddy Setiawan, Eka Setyorini","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I2.365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I2.365","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims at examining the effect of local election to regional head on the local government budget allocation. Sample of the study consists of local government election in Java Island at year 2015. The study expect that incumbent engage in budget manipulation at the election year. The result of the study shows that there is different in the donation expenditure, social assistance expenditure and investment expenditure between pre-election year and election year. There is increase in donation expenditure, regional head increase donation expenditure to increase his performance. However, the increase of donation expenditure through decrease in investment expenditure and social assistance expenditure. Further test shows that incumbent that running for election also use his discretion to decrease service and goods expenditure. AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui adanya perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan sosial, belanja barang jasa dan belanja modal dalam APBD pemerintah daerah pada saat pelaksanaan pemilihan umum kepala daerah. Penelitian dilakukan pada 52 daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Pulau Jawa yang melaksanakan pemilukada pada tahun 2015. Untuk menganalisis data, penelitian ini menggunakan statistik deskriptif yang menginformasikan tentang nilai minimum, nilai maksimum, rata – rata (mean) dan standar deviasi (standard deviation). Penelitian ini menggunakan uji-t untuk menguji perbedaan alokasi belanja pada daerah sebelum dan pada saat pemilukada, dengan cara melakukan Uji Paired Sample t-Test. Hasil penelitian yaitu terdapat perbedaan alokasi belanja hibah, bantuan sosial dan belanja modal antara periode sebelum dan pada saat pemilukada. Hasil ini konsisten pada daerah yang dipimpin oleh petahana yang mengikuti pemilukada dan petahana yang tidak mengikuti pemilukada.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124017663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
AbstractTulisan ini mengaplikasikan model MCM Spidergram: Macro Financial Environment Tool (Ms Muffet) yang dikembangkan oleh IMF sebagai alat analisis dan penilaian risiko dan kondisi makro-finansial yang berdampak pada stabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia. Model ini dibentuk dari 68 indikator yang digabungkan menjadi 6 indeks gabungan yang merefleksikan 4 risiko dan 2 kondisi makro-finansial. Hasil model dapat menunjukkan performa yang cukup baik dalam memberikan sinyal risiko instabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia selama periode 2015-2016. Berdasarkan hal ini, model Ms Muffet ini dapat melengkapi berbagai alat analisis yang digunakan untuk mengukur stabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia yang sudah ada. Model ini juga mampu mengatasi sejumlah kekurangan dari model-model pengukuran stabilitas sistem keuangan sebelumnya.
{"title":"Memantau Risiko Makro – Finansial di dalam Perekonomian Indonesia","authors":"Alfan Mansur","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I2.302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I2.302","url":null,"abstract":"AbstractTulisan ini mengaplikasikan model MCM Spidergram: Macro Financial Environment Tool (Ms Muffet) yang dikembangkan oleh IMF sebagai alat analisis dan penilaian risiko dan kondisi makro-finansial yang berdampak pada stabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia. Model ini dibentuk dari 68 indikator yang digabungkan menjadi 6 indeks gabungan yang merefleksikan 4 risiko dan 2 kondisi makro-finansial. Hasil model dapat menunjukkan performa yang cukup baik dalam memberikan sinyal risiko instabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia selama periode 2015-2016. Berdasarkan hal ini, model Ms Muffet ini dapat melengkapi berbagai alat analisis yang digunakan untuk mengukur stabilitas sistem keuangan di Indonesia yang sudah ada. Model ini juga mampu mengatasi sejumlah kekurangan dari model-model pengukuran stabilitas sistem keuangan sebelumnya.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"69 4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123451223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inter-connectedness is one important aspect in measuring the degree of systemic risk arising in the banking system. In this paper, this aspect besides the degree of commonality and volatility are measured using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), dynamic Granger causality tests and a Markov regime switching model. These measures can be used as leading indicators to detect pressures in the financial system, in particular the banking system. There is evidence that the inter-connectedness level together with degree of commonality and volatility among banks escalate substantially during the financial distress. It implies that less systemically important banks could become more important in the financial system during the abnormal times. Therefore, the list of systemically important banks as regulated in the Law on Prevention and Mitigation of Financial System Crisis (UU PPKSK) should be updated more frequently during the period of financial distress.
{"title":"Measuring Systemic Risk on the Indonesia’s Banking System","authors":"A. Mansur","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V2I2.325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V2I2.325","url":null,"abstract":"Inter-connectedness is one important aspect in measuring the degree of systemic risk arising in the banking system. In this paper, this aspect besides the degree of commonality and volatility are measured using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), dynamic Granger causality tests and a Markov regime switching model. These measures can be used as leading indicators to detect pressures in the financial system, in particular the banking system. There is evidence that the inter-connectedness level together with degree of commonality and volatility among banks escalate substantially during the financial distress. It implies that less systemically important banks could become more important in the financial system during the abnormal times. Therefore, the list of systemically important banks as regulated in the Law on Prevention and Mitigation of Financial System Crisis (UU PPKSK) should be updated more frequently during the period of financial distress.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127241813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study was aimed to analyze the persistence of inflation in West Papua Province and commodities’s contibutions to its persistence. In other that, this study was aimed to know the role of TPID in controlling the inflation rate too. Using secondary time series data in 2009 until 2015 period from Bank Indonesia, this study estimated the persistence with Univariate Autoregressive (AR) Model approach. This study empirically showed that the inflation in West Papua has a high level persistence. This level indicated that inflation was relatively need long time to back to natural value after the shocks. It need 11.5 months to back to natural value. Furthermore, using Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), this study also showed that the persistence significantly caused by groups of prepared food, transportation, communication and monetary service as administered price and volatile foods groups. TPID as an inflation controller board have given good roles in coordinating both fiscal and monetary policies.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat persistensi inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat dan kontribusi persistensi inflasi sejumlah komoditas atau kelompok barang/jasa terhadap pembentukan persistensi di Provinsi Papua Barat. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga akan melihat peranan TPID menjalankan fungsinya dalam pengendalian inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat. Dengan menggunakan data time series triwulanan tahun 2009 s.d. 2015 yang bersumber dari publikasi Bank Indonesia, penelitian ini mencoba mengestimasi dengan pendekatan Univariate Autoregressive (AR) Model. Penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat memiliki derajat persistensi yang tinggi. Persistensi inflasi yang tinggi mengindikasikan bahwa inflasi membutuhkan waktu yang cukup lama untuk kembali ke nilai alamiahnya setelah adanya shock. Tingginya derajat persistensi inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat tercermin dari lamanya jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi untuk menyerap 50% shock yang terjadi sebelum kembali ke nilai alamiahnya. Jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat untuk kembali ke nilai alamiahnya yaitu selama 11,5 bulan. Dengan model Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) diketahui bahwa persistensi inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat dipengaruhi oleh shock yang terjadi pada kelompok bahan makanan dan kelompok-kelompok transportasi, komunikasi, dan jasa keuangan sebagai kelompok administered price dan kelompok bahan makanan sebagai kelompok volatile foods. Selain itu, keberadaan TPID di Provinsi Papua Barat sebagai upaya untuk mengoordinasikan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal regional dalam rangka mengontrol laju inflasi, terbukti memiliki arah hubungan negatif terhadap inflasi regional di Provinsi Papua Barat.
本研究旨在分析西巴布亚省持续的通货膨胀和商品对其持续的贡献。此外，本研究也旨在了解TPID在控制通货膨胀率方面的作用。利用印度尼西亚银行2009年至2015年期间的二次时间序列数据，本研究使用单变量自回归(AR)模型方法估计了持久性。实证研究表明，西巴布亚的通货膨胀具有较高的持续性。这一水平表明，通胀在冲击后相对需要较长时间才能回到自然水平。它需要11.5个月才能恢复到自然价值。此外，利用部分调整模型(PAM)，本研究还表明，预制食品、交通运输、通信和货币服务作为管理价格和波动性食品组对持久性有显著影响。TPID作为通货膨胀控制板，在协调财政和货币政策方面发挥了很好的作用。在巴布亚巴拉省，有一种叫做Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalis tingkat persistensi ininasi的现象，但在巴布亚巴拉省，有一种叫做kontribusi persistensi ininasi的现象。印度尼西亚，巴布亚巴拉特省，巴布亚巴拉特省，巴布亚巴拉特省。邓安menggunakan数据时间序列triwulanan tahun 2009 s.d 2015 yang bersumber dari publiclikasi Bank印度尼西亚，penelitian ini mencoba mengestimasi邓安pendekatan单变量自回归(AR)模型。巴布亚省(巴布亚省)，巴布亚省(巴布亚省)，巴布亚省(巴布亚省)，巴布亚省(巴布亚省)。恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久，恒久恒久。巴布亚巴拉巴拉tercermin dari lamanya jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi untuk menyerap 50% shock yang terjadi sebelum kembali ke nilai alamihnya。janka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi省，Papua Barat untuk kembali ke nilai alamihnya yaitselama 11,5 bulan。Dengan模型部分调整模型(PAM) diketahui bahwa persistensi inflasi省Papua Barat dipengaruhi oleh shock yang terjadi paada kelompok bahan makanan kelompok-kelompok transporttasi, komunikasi, dan jasa keuangan sebagai kelompok管理价格dankelompok bahan makanan sebagai kelompok挥发性食品。Selain itu, keberadaan TPID di di Papua Barat省，sebagai, upaya, untuk, mengoordinaskan, kebijakan, monter，区域dalam, rangka，孟山都，孟山都控制，terbukti, memiliki, arah, hubungan, neghadap, inasi，区域di Papua Barat省。
{"title":"Analisis Persistensi Inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat","authors":"Azwar Iskandar, Achmat Subekan","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V1I2.254","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V1I2.254","url":null,"abstract":"This study was aimed to analyze the persistence of inflation in West Papua Province and commodities’s contibutions to its persistence. In other that, this study was aimed to know the role of TPID in controlling the inflation rate too. Using secondary time series data in 2009 until 2015 period from Bank Indonesia, this study estimated the persistence with Univariate Autoregressive (AR) Model approach. This study empirically showed that the inflation in West Papua has a high level persistence. This level indicated that inflation was relatively need long time to back to natural value after the shocks. It need 11.5 months to back to natural value. Furthermore, using Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), this study also showed that the persistence significantly caused by groups of prepared food, transportation, communication and monetary service as administered price and volatile foods groups. TPID as an inflation controller board have given good roles in coordinating both fiscal and monetary policies.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat persistensi inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat dan kontribusi persistensi inflasi sejumlah komoditas atau kelompok barang/jasa terhadap pembentukan persistensi di Provinsi Papua Barat. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga akan melihat peranan TPID menjalankan fungsinya dalam pengendalian inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat. Dengan menggunakan data time series triwulanan tahun 2009 s.d. 2015 yang bersumber dari publikasi Bank Indonesia, penelitian ini mencoba mengestimasi dengan pendekatan Univariate Autoregressive (AR) Model. Penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa inflasi di Provinsi Papua Barat memiliki derajat persistensi yang tinggi. Persistensi inflasi yang tinggi mengindikasikan bahwa inflasi membutuhkan waktu yang cukup lama untuk kembali ke nilai alamiahnya setelah adanya shock. Tingginya derajat persistensi inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat tercermin dari lamanya jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi untuk menyerap 50% shock yang terjadi sebelum kembali ke nilai alamiahnya. Jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan oleh inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat untuk kembali ke nilai alamiahnya yaitu selama 11,5 bulan. Dengan model Partial Adjustment Model (PAM) diketahui bahwa persistensi inflasi Provinsi Papua Barat dipengaruhi oleh shock yang terjadi pada kelompok bahan makanan dan kelompok-kelompok transportasi, komunikasi, dan jasa keuangan sebagai kelompok administered price dan kelompok bahan makanan sebagai kelompok volatile foods. Selain itu, keberadaan TPID di Provinsi Papua Barat sebagai upaya untuk mengoordinasikan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal regional dalam rangka mengontrol laju inflasi, terbukti memiliki arah hubungan negatif terhadap inflasi regional di Provinsi Papua Barat.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"61 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121700978","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Risks in emerging market economies have considerably gone up as capital inflows have soared since the global financial crises in 2008. Once the advanced economies recover, especially in the US where its monetary stimulus ends, market expectations change. It may then potentially lead to sudden capital outflows from emerging economies which could lead to loss of confidence in the emerging market economies. To study the impacts of such event, this paper simulates with the G-Cubed Model. The results show that once financial shocks hit emerging market economies, it can produce critical real effects in the economic downturn which will last for a long period. The simulation also shows the strong interdependence between financial and real economies. In the emerging economies, expected future incomes and wealth fall, while the developed economies gain through the reallocation of investment. Another important channel of the shocks is through trade channel as most emerging market economies rely on imports for their production inputs.
{"title":"The Impact of a Loss of Confidence in Emerging Market Economies to the World Economy: A Simulation with the G-Cubed Model","authors":"A. Mansur","doi":"10.31685/KEK.V1I2.148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31685/KEK.V1I2.148","url":null,"abstract":"Risks in emerging market economies have considerably gone up as capital inflows have soared since the global financial crises in 2008. Once the advanced economies recover, especially in the US where its monetary stimulus ends, market expectations change. It may then potentially lead to sudden capital outflows from emerging economies which could lead to loss of confidence in the emerging market economies. To study the impacts of such event, this paper simulates with the G-Cubed Model. The results show that once financial shocks hit emerging market economies, it can produce critical real effects in the economic downturn which will last for a long period. The simulation also shows the strong interdependence between financial and real economies. In the emerging economies, expected future incomes and wealth fall, while the developed economies gain through the reallocation of investment. Another important channel of the shocks is through trade channel as most emerging market economies rely on imports for their production inputs.","PeriodicalId":426920,"journal":{"name":"Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125323067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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