Dr.Rasha Fadhil, K. Unami, Md Kamal Rowshon, A. Fikri, W. Aimrun
A water reservoir’s operation should follow a rational policy to ensure adequate water provision for different purposes without adverse effects. However, it is not well-studied how to identify operational policies currently being implemented. This study establishes a new approach to identifying nominal release policies as implemented in a multi-purpose water reservoir. We chose Bukit Merah Reservoir (BMR), located in Perak State, Malaysia, as a study site to examine its release policies for meeting irrigation, municipal, and industrial water demands and for mitigating floods and environmental hazards. The operator of BMR releases the reservoir’s water into two primary irrigation canals, the Main Canal and the Selinsing Canal. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are applied to time series data observed at BMR to identify the annual dynamics of its water management. Operational policies for the release discharges into the two primary irrigation canals are assumed to be based on information on the time-of-year and the reservoir water level. First, a backfitting algorithm identifies each contributing function of the GAMs representing the release policies. Then, spurious oscillations in the functions are removed by total variation (TV) regularization (TVR) to obtain nominal release policies, which are quite reasonable in the sense of conventional reservoir management practice. Finally, the identified nominal release policies are utilized to examine shifts in the operation of BMR during the period from 2000 through 2011. The decomposition of release policies illustrates the two aspects of the irrigation demand’s annual patterns and the hydraulic structures’ functions. The spurious oscillations removed by TVR are considered to represent indecision by the reservoir operator.
{"title":"Identification of nominal release policies implemented in a multi-purpose water reservoir","authors":"Dr.Rasha Fadhil, K. Unami, Md Kamal Rowshon, A. Fikri, W. Aimrun","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/154592","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/154592","url":null,"abstract":"A water reservoir’s operation should follow a rational policy to ensure adequate water provision for different purposes without adverse effects. However, it is not well-studied how to identify operational policies currently being implemented. This study establishes a new approach to identifying nominal release policies as implemented in a multi-purpose water reservoir. We chose Bukit Merah Reservoir (BMR), located in Perak State, Malaysia, as a study site to examine its release policies for meeting irrigation, municipal, and industrial water demands and for mitigating floods and environmental hazards. The operator of BMR releases the reservoir’s water into two primary irrigation canals, the Main Canal and the Selinsing Canal. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are applied to time series data observed at BMR to identify the annual dynamics of its water management. Operational policies for the release discharges into the two primary irrigation canals are assumed to be based on information on the time-of-year and the reservoir water level. First, a backfitting algorithm identifies each contributing function of the GAMs representing the release policies. Then, spurious oscillations in the functions are removed by total variation (TV) regularization (TVR) to obtain nominal release policies, which are quite reasonable in the sense of conventional reservoir management practice. Finally, the identified nominal release policies are utilized to examine shifts in the operation of BMR during the period from 2000 through 2011. The decomposition of release policies illustrates the two aspects of the irrigation demand’s annual patterns and the hydraulic structures’ functions. The spurious oscillations removed by TVR are considered to represent indecision by the reservoir operator.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85293297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The investigation of extreme meteorological drought events is crucial for disaster preparedness and regional water management. In this study, trends in extreme drought events, namely annual maximum drought severity (AMDS) and annual maximum drought duration (AMDD), were examined for the Ceyhan Basin. The analyses of extreme events were conducted using the standard precipitation index (SPI) index for multiple-time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months for 23 meteorological stations located in the Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. The Wallis-Moore and Wald-Wolfowitz methods were employed to determine the homogeneity of the data sets, whereas trend analyses were conducted using Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests. The magnitude of trends was defined by Sen’s slope and linear regression, and change points were detected using the standard normal homogeneity test , Buishand’s range test, and Pettitt’s test. Although increasing trends were detected in most of the stations, only in nine of them , statistically significant results were noted at a significance level of 95%. The results of this paper provide valuable information to water resource management decision-makers in the Ceyhan River Basin for evaluating the effect of droughts and preparing for drought mitigation measures to avoid future drought risks. period in which a significant change occurs in a time series. In this study, the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), Buishand’s range test (BRT), and Pettitt’s test (PT) were employed to detect change points in the time series.
{"title":"Comprehensive evaluation of trend analysis of extreme drought events in the Ceyhan River Basin, Turkey","authors":"Musa Eşit, M. Yuce","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/154573","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/154573","url":null,"abstract":"The investigation of extreme meteorological drought events is crucial for disaster preparedness and regional water management. In this study, trends in extreme drought events, namely annual maximum drought severity (AMDS) and annual maximum drought duration (AMDD), were examined for the Ceyhan Basin. The analyses of extreme events were conducted using the standard precipitation index (SPI) index for multiple-time scales of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months for 23 meteorological stations located in the Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. The Wallis-Moore and Wald-Wolfowitz methods were employed to determine the homogeneity of the data sets, whereas trend analyses were conducted using Mann-Kendall and Spearman Rho tests. The magnitude of trends was defined by Sen’s slope and linear regression, and change points were detected using the standard normal homogeneity test , Buishand’s range test, and Pettitt’s test. Although increasing trends were detected in most of the stations, only in nine of them , statistically significant results were noted at a significance level of 95%. The results of this paper provide valuable information to water resource management decision-makers in the Ceyhan River Basin for evaluating the effect of droughts and preparing for drought mitigation measures to avoid future drought risks. period in which a significant change occurs in a time series. In this study, the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT), Buishand’s range test (BRT), and Pettitt’s test (PT) were employed to detect change points in the time series.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77864068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Wrona, Piotr Mańczak, Anna Woźniak, Michał Ogrodnik, Michał Folwarski
This study presents a comprehensive synoptic analysis of one of the most violent storms recorded in recent years in the north-western part of Poland, which occurred on August 11, 2017. Its development took place ahead of a waving cold front in the tropical air mass, downstream of the upper-level trough. The thunderstorms formed over Lower Silesia in the afternoon and moved towards Gdańsk Pomerania to occur over the B altic Sea after midnight on August 12, 2017, where they gradually disappeared. As the thunderstorms moved through this area, they ranged from single convective cells and unorganized multicell storms through supercell thunderstorms to mesoscale convective systems in the form of bow echo squall lines and the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). The convective system, evolving over time, fulfilled the derecho criteria. Its development was related to the presence of both the upper and mid-level jet stream, which supported the formation of a strong rear inflow jet (RIJ) in the rear part of the convective system, being one of the main factors generating the formation of a bow echo squall line with strong wind gusts. The maximum wind gusts recorded on August 11, 2017, are among the highest in the history of Polish measurements and amounted to 42 m/s in Elbląg, 36 m/s in Chrząstów, 35 m/s in Gniezno, and around 30 m/s at several other stations.
{"title":"Synoptic conditions of the derecho storm. Case study of the derecho event over Poland on August 11, 2017","authors":"B. Wrona, Piotr Mańczak, Anna Woźniak, Michał Ogrodnik, Michał Folwarski","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/152798","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/152798","url":null,"abstract":"This study presents a comprehensive synoptic analysis of one of the most violent storms recorded in recent years in the north-western part of Poland, which occurred on August 11, 2017. Its development took place ahead of a waving cold front in the tropical air mass, downstream of the upper-level trough. The thunderstorms formed over Lower Silesia in the afternoon and moved towards Gdańsk Pomerania to occur over the B altic Sea after midnight on August 12, 2017, where they gradually disappeared. As the thunderstorms moved through this area, they ranged from single convective cells and unorganized multicell storms through supercell thunderstorms to mesoscale convective systems in the form of bow echo squall lines and the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). The convective system, evolving over time, fulfilled the derecho criteria. Its development was related to the presence of both the upper and mid-level jet stream, which supported the formation of a strong rear inflow jet (RIJ) in the rear part of the convective system, being one of the main factors generating the formation of a bow echo squall line with strong wind gusts. The maximum wind gusts recorded on August 11, 2017, are among the highest in the history of Polish measurements and amounted to 42 m/s in Elbląg, 36 m/s in Chrząstów, 35 m/s in Gniezno, and around 30 m/s at several other stations.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87320465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents an analysis of the derecho phenomenon that occurred over Poland on August 11, 2017. The storm caused 6 fatalities, 39 injuries (Mańczak et al. 202 2), and some of the greatest damage in the history of Polish forestry. Our study is based on radar meteorology and measurements from the Polish POLRAD radar network, and intended for advanced meteorologists with good knowledge of radar measurements. The research used both standard and specialized radar products as well as classic and Doppler scan data. The Doppler velocity products were especially useful for showing the characteristics of the storm. The analysis was mainly based on data from two radars: Poznań and Gdańsk, but the composite maps , consisting of data from more than one radar, were also analyzed. The derecho complex developed from unorganized thunderstorm cells over SW Poland and moved toward the NE. The various stages of the evolution of the system are presented and analyzed, accounting for the formation of a SC, the development of a rear inflow jet (RIJ), the split of the entire system, and the appearance of the bow echo signature. Significant factors affecting the scale of the wind damage were: (1) the extensive mesocyclone which evolved to the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), and (2) a strong rear flank downdraft interacting with the rear inflow jet (RIJ).
本文对2017年8月11日发生在波兰上空的derecho现象进行了分析。这场风暴造成6人死亡，39人受伤(Mańczak et al. 202)，是波兰林业历史上最严重的破坏之一。我们的研究基于雷达气象学和波兰POLRAD雷达网络的测量，旨在为具有良好雷达测量知识的高级气象学家提供服务。该研究使用了标准和专用雷达产品以及经典和多普勒扫描数据。多普勒速度产品对显示风暴的特征特别有用。分析主要基于波兹纳瓦和Gdańsk两个雷达的数据，但也分析了由多个雷达数据组成的合成地图。derecho复合体由波兰西南部无组织雷暴单体发展而来，并向东北移动。介绍并分析了系统发展的各个阶段，包括SC的形成、后流入射流(RIJ)的发展、整个系统的分裂以及弓形回波特征的出现。影响风害规模的主要因素有:(1)发展为中尺度对流涡(MCV)的广泛中气旋，(2)与后方入流急流(RIJ)相互作用的强后侧翼下降气流。
{"title":"Derecho radar analysis of August 11, 2017","authors":"Hubert Łuszczewski, Irena Tuszyńska","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/152504","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/152504","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents an analysis of the derecho phenomenon that occurred over Poland on August 11, 2017. The storm caused 6 fatalities, 39 injuries (Mańczak et al. 202 2), and some of the greatest damage in the history of Polish forestry. Our study is based on radar meteorology and measurements from the Polish POLRAD radar network, and intended for advanced meteorologists with good knowledge of radar measurements. The research used both standard and specialized radar products as well as classic and Doppler scan data. The Doppler velocity products were especially useful for showing the characteristics of the storm. The analysis was mainly based on data from two radars: Poznań and Gdańsk, but the composite maps , consisting of data from more than one radar, were also analyzed. The derecho complex developed from unorganized thunderstorm cells over SW Poland and moved toward the NE. The various stages of the evolution of the system are presented and analyzed, accounting for the formation of a SC, the development of a rear inflow jet (RIJ), the split of the entire system, and the appearance of the bow echo signature. Significant factors affecting the scale of the wind damage were: (1) the extensive mesocyclone which evolved to the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), and (2) a strong rear flank downdraft interacting with the rear inflow jet (RIJ).","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78249212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Khrystiuk, L. Gorbachova, V. Shpyg, D. Pishniak
In the late 20 th century, warming on the Antarctic Peninsula was most pronounced compared to other parts of Antarctica. However, air temperature showed a significant variability, which has become especially evident in recent dec-ades. Thus, the investigation of air temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula is important. This study examines the extreme air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, located on Galindez Island, Argentine Islands Archipelago, near the Antarctic Peninsula. For 1951 to 2020, based on the daily air temperature data, the temporal trends of extreme air temperature were analyzed, using 11 extreme temperature indices. Based on linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall trend test, the TXn, TNn, TN90p, and TN90p indices showed an upward trend, whereas theFD0, ID0, TN10p, TX10p, and DTR indices showed a downward trend. Among them, annually, FD0, ID0, and TN10p significantly decreased by – 0.427 days, – 0.452 days, and – 0.465%, respectively, whereas TXn and TNn increased by 0.164 ℃ and 0.201 ℃ , respectively. The indices TXx and TNn showed no statistically significant trends. The average annual difference between TX and TN (index DTR) showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend at – 0.029 ℃ year -1 . Thus, for the period of 1951-2020, the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station was subjected to warming.
{"title":"Changes in extreme temperature indices at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, 1951-2020","authors":"B. Khrystiuk, L. Gorbachova, V. Shpyg, D. Pishniak","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/150883","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/150883","url":null,"abstract":"In the late 20 th century, warming on the Antarctic Peninsula was most pronounced compared to other parts of Antarctica. However, air temperature showed a significant variability, which has become especially evident in recent dec-ades. Thus, the investigation of air temperature trends on the Antarctic Peninsula is important. This study examines the extreme air temperature at the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station, located on Galindez Island, Argentine Islands Archipelago, near the Antarctic Peninsula. For 1951 to 2020, based on the daily air temperature data, the temporal trends of extreme air temperature were analyzed, using 11 extreme temperature indices. Based on linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall trend test, the TXn, TNn, TN90p, and TN90p indices showed an upward trend, whereas theFD0, ID0, TN10p, TX10p, and DTR indices showed a downward trend. Among them, annually, FD0, ID0, and TN10p significantly decreased by – 0.427 days, – 0.452 days, and – 0.465%, respectively, whereas TXn and TNn increased by 0.164 ℃ and 0.201 ℃ , respectively. The indices TXx and TNn showed no statistically significant trends. The average annual difference between TX and TN (index DTR) showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend at – 0.029 ℃ year -1 . Thus, for the period of 1951-2020, the Ukrainian Antarctic Akademik Vernadsky station was subjected to warming.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84367073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Given the complex links to the major economic activities and climate variability, water is becoming the most fiercely contested resource, challenging human survival and food security especially in arid hot dry regions, such as in the Middle East and North Africa areas (MENA). In the Kebili and Tozeur regions in southern Tunisia, groundwater resources undergo abusive exploitation mostly for agricultural activities. The lack of efficient management and adequate conservation strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation has resulted in gradual irreversible ecological and geological effects. Thus, this review paper provides a useful background synthesis for the critical assessment of the recursive dynamic substantial increase in freshwater in these regions, using a general equilibrium model of hydrodynamic and chemical changes of aquifers based on several water scarcity indices and eco-nomic-ecological factors. The collected data highlight the good correlation between the reviewed studies and the observed and (or) measured disturbance of the natural functioning of the deep confined aquifers, manifested by the gradual severity of the resulted environmental issues, the permanent irreversible depression of the water table, aquifer decompression, land subsidence in the Douz area, and contamination by petroleum flows, with 4 g/L of asphalt and 12 to 90 µg/L of cadmium in northern Kebili. Based on the assembled evidence, water scarcity has heavily influenced the equilibrium of these resources, and the adopted conservation plans have been insufficient to ensure economic incentives for environmental natural resources conservation (the annual average loss of fertile land is 1.25 ha). A detailed equilibrium analysis, relying on evaluating the water productivity-water exploitation ratio, is undoubtedly necessary for improving the integration among different decision makers. Moreover, a re-examination of the resulting impacts of the previously implemented strategies for reliable database development is the key to the successful handling of this transitory fragile situation.
{"title":"An overview of groundwater resources evolution in North Africa: sustainability assessment of the CI aquifer under natural and anthropogenic constraints","authors":"Houda Besser, L. Dhaouadi","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/150572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/150572","url":null,"abstract":"Given the complex links to the major economic activities and climate variability, water is becoming the most fiercely contested resource, challenging human survival and food security especially in arid hot dry regions, such as in the Middle East and North Africa areas (MENA). In the Kebili and Tozeur regions in southern Tunisia, groundwater resources undergo abusive exploitation mostly for agricultural activities. The lack of efficient management and adequate conservation strategies to ensure sustainable exploitation has resulted in gradual irreversible ecological and geological effects. Thus, this review paper provides a useful background synthesis for the critical assessment of the recursive dynamic substantial increase in freshwater in these regions, using a general equilibrium model of hydrodynamic and chemical changes of aquifers based on several water scarcity indices and eco-nomic-ecological factors. The collected data highlight the good correlation between the reviewed studies and the observed and (or) measured disturbance of the natural functioning of the deep confined aquifers, manifested by the gradual severity of the resulted environmental issues, the permanent irreversible depression of the water table, aquifer decompression, land subsidence in the Douz area, and contamination by petroleum flows, with 4 g/L of asphalt and 12 to 90 µg/L of cadmium in northern Kebili. Based on the assembled evidence, water scarcity has heavily influenced the equilibrium of these resources, and the adopted conservation plans have been insufficient to ensure economic incentives for environmental natural resources conservation (the annual average loss of fertile land is 1.25 ha). A detailed equilibrium analysis, relying on evaluating the water productivity-water exploitation ratio, is undoubtedly necessary for improving the integration among different decision makers. Moreover, a re-examination of the resulting impacts of the previously implemented strategies for reliable database development is the key to the successful handling of this transitory fragile situation.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"123 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75928701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study documents the atmospheric conditions and the development of a tornadic supercell in the Czech Republic, which occurred on the early evening on 24 June 2021. I used the data from the ERA5-reanalysis, vertical atmospheric sounding, synoptic map, and a Sentinel-2 satellite image to determinate the tornado route. As a result of the analysis, it can be concluded that the development of this tornadic supercell was caused by high CAPE values, amounting to around 5, 000 J·kg -1 , 0-6 km AGL wind shear 30 m·s -1 , storm-relative helicity with values of 150 m 2 ·s -2 and a wavy atmospheric front. The tornado occurred around 19:30 local time (1730 UTC) in the town Hru š ky and moved north-east, reaching the town Hodonín. Based on satellite image derived from Sentinel-2, the widest point of the tornado reached 70 meters; it traveled a distance of about 20 kilometers and had a force of EF3/T5 on the Fujita/TORRO scale. As a result of this event, 6 people lost their lives, 200 people were seriously injured, and hundreds of buildings and cars were destroyed. Further studies on strong thunderstorm incidents in Europe are necessary for their better understanding and prediction.
{"title":"Convective environment and development of a tornadic supercell in the Czech Republic on 24 June 2021","authors":"Sławomir Sulik","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/150023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/150023","url":null,"abstract":"This study documents the atmospheric conditions and the development of a tornadic supercell in the Czech Republic, which occurred on the early evening on 24 June 2021. I used the data from the ERA5-reanalysis, vertical atmospheric sounding, synoptic map, and a Sentinel-2 satellite image to determinate the tornado route. As a result of the analysis, it can be concluded that the development of this tornadic supercell was caused by high CAPE values, amounting to around 5, 000 J·kg -1 , 0-6 km AGL wind shear 30 m·s -1 , storm-relative helicity with values of 150 m 2 ·s -2 and a wavy atmospheric front. The tornado occurred around 19:30 local time (1730 UTC) in the town Hru š ky and moved north-east, reaching the town Hodonín. Based on satellite image derived from Sentinel-2, the widest point of the tornado reached 70 meters; it traveled a distance of about 20 kilometers and had a force of EF3/T5 on the Fujita/TORRO scale. As a result of this event, 6 people lost their lives, 200 people were seriously injured, and hundreds of buildings and cars were destroyed. Further studies on strong thunderstorm incidents in Europe are necessary for their better understanding and prediction.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74908495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With climatic changes, access to freshwater resources becomes more limited. Correspondingly, water monitoring methods in sensitive or critical areas in terms of groundwater amount are becoming increasingly important. The monitoring of the water levels in these regions, using appropriate methods and data sets, is highly effective in preventing possible future water crises. This paper aims estimated water storage changes with available tools and data in southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, where hydro-climatological studies are scarce due to limited observations. Data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission and the Global Land Data Assimilation System were used for the analysis of water storage changes in the study area. The results demonstrate that water storage shows a downward trend in all subareas, particularly in high-elevation regions. In addition, climatic changes have both short- and long-term impacts on water storage. Climatic variables (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation) showed the highest correlation with water storage at 2-month lags. The monitoring of water storage is crucial for the region, and our results confirm the major role of such monitoring in decision-making processes and water resource management.
{"title":"Evaluation of Water Storage Changes in Southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, using GRACE and GLDAS","authors":"E. Zeray Öztürk","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/149849","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/149849","url":null,"abstract":"With climatic changes, access to freshwater resources becomes more limited. Correspondingly, water monitoring methods in sensitive or critical areas in terms of groundwater amount are becoming increasingly important. The monitoring of the water levels in these regions, using appropriate methods and data sets, is highly effective in preventing possible future water crises. This paper aims estimated water storage changes with available tools and data in southeastern Anatolia, Turkey, where hydro-climatological studies are scarce due to limited observations. Data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite mission and the Global Land Data Assimilation System were used for the analysis of water storage changes in the study area. The results demonstrate that water storage shows a downward trend in all subareas, particularly in high-elevation regions. In addition, climatic changes have both short- and long-term impacts on water storage. Climatic variables (increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation) showed the highest correlation with water storage at 2-month lags. The monitoring of water storage is crucial for the region, and our results confirm the major role of such monitoring in decision-making processes and water resource management.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"718 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78776503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
P. Guhathakurta, A. Prasad, Rajib Chattyopadhyay, Neha Sangwan, Nilesh Wagh, D. Pattanayak, D. Pai, M. Mohapatra
Operational extended range forecasts are being disseminated once every week by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for several sectorial applications. These forecasts show a reduction in amplitude and variance as a function of lead-time. Such reductions in variance can be due to several physical factors: inherent forecast model bias, a problem relating to initial conditions, leaddependent statistical biases, etc. A week-by-week analysis shows that such biases are not systematic. Rainfall forecasts are underestimated in some regions, while others overestimate rainfall amplitude. To correct the bias in the extended range weekly averaged forecast, a statistical post-processing method (normal ratio correction) is proposed to make the outlook more valuable at a longer lead-time. The correction method is based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) technical guidance on rainfall estimation and is also shown to be useful for rainfall forecasts. In this analysis, we evaluate the extended range forecast skill at the river sub-basin-scale and show that there are several river sub-basins over the central Indian region where the correction has improved the model forecast in the one to two-week range. Although this analysis was tailored toward making the river basins and sub-basins of India more readily realizable for flood forecasters, it can be used for any administrative boundaries such as block, district, or state-level requirements.
{"title":"The evaluation of weekly extended range river basin rainfall forecasts and a new bias correction mechanism for flood management in India","authors":"P. Guhathakurta, A. Prasad, Rajib Chattyopadhyay, Neha Sangwan, Nilesh Wagh, D. Pattanayak, D. Pai, M. Mohapatra","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/146785","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/146785","url":null,"abstract":"Operational extended range forecasts are being disseminated once every week by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for several sectorial applications. These forecasts show a reduction in amplitude and variance as a function of lead-time. Such reductions in variance can be due to several physical factors: inherent forecast model bias, a problem relating to initial conditions, leaddependent statistical biases, etc. A week-by-week analysis shows that such biases are not systematic. Rainfall forecasts are underestimated in some regions, while others overestimate rainfall amplitude. To correct the bias in the extended range weekly averaged forecast, a statistical post-processing method (normal ratio correction) is proposed to make the outlook more valuable at a longer lead-time. The correction method is based on the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) technical guidance on rainfall estimation and is also shown to be useful for rainfall forecasts. In this analysis, we evaluate the extended range forecast skill at the river sub-basin-scale and show that there are several river sub-basins over the central Indian region where the correction has improved the model forecast in the one to two-week range. Although this analysis was tailored toward making the river basins and sub-basins of India more readily realizable for flood forecasters, it can be used for any administrative boundaries such as block, district, or state-level requirements.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2022-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89894037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The climate of a high-altitude postglacial cirque, such as Kozia Dolinka, is conducive to the occurrence of permafrost. Both the depth of permafrost and the area it covers, as well as the presence of year-round snow patches, can serve as indicators for assessing the impact of global warming on the climate of mountains, including the Tatras. With few meteorological stations to survey the remote and inaccessible high-altitude areas of the Tatra Mountains, any research must rely on measurements spanning limited time periods. Against this background, the 5-year series of temperature measurements from the Kozia Dolinka cirque obtained by the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IGiPZ PAN) can be used to analyze air temperature patterns on concave and convex terrain forms in the alpine climate zone if compared to the results of measurements from stations of the State Hydrological and Meteorological Service located nearby, i.e. the Kasprowy Wierch HighMountain Meteorological Observatory and the Hala Gąsienicowa Nival Research Station of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). This study confirms that there is a relationship between air temperature and the formation and duration of snow cover on concave and convex terrain forms. It also reveals a hitherto unknown fact that concave terrain forms, i.e. postglacial cirques, of the alpine zone have milder thermal conditions in winter than convex terrain forms. The analyses highlight the need for further, more detailed research using modern automated meteorological stations.
{"title":"Air temperature in high-altitude areas as exemplified by the Tatra Mountains","authors":"Krzysztof Jurczak, Stanisław Kędzia","doi":"10.26491/mhwm/145366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/145366","url":null,"abstract":"The climate of a high-altitude postglacial cirque, such as Kozia Dolinka, is conducive to the occurrence of permafrost. Both the depth of permafrost and the area it covers, as well as the presence of year-round snow patches, can serve as indicators for assessing the impact of global warming on the climate of mountains, including the Tatras. With few meteorological stations to survey the remote and inaccessible high-altitude areas of the Tatra Mountains, any research must rely on measurements spanning limited time periods. Against this background, the 5-year series of temperature measurements from the Kozia Dolinka cirque obtained by the Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences (IGiPZ PAN) can be used to analyze air temperature patterns on concave and convex terrain forms in the alpine climate zone if compared to the results of measurements from stations of the State Hydrological and Meteorological Service located nearby, i.e. the Kasprowy Wierch HighMountain Meteorological Observatory and the Hala Gąsienicowa Nival Research Station of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). This study confirms that there is a relationship between air temperature and the formation and duration of snow cover on concave and convex terrain forms. It also reveals a hitherto unknown fact that concave terrain forms, i.e. postglacial cirques, of the alpine zone have milder thermal conditions in winter than convex terrain forms. The analyses highlight the need for further, more detailed research using modern automated meteorological stations.","PeriodicalId":42852,"journal":{"name":"Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management-Research and Operational Applications","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.6,"publicationDate":"2021-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74317356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：