This article presents new results which should be useful in finding production decisions while solving the dynamic lot sizing problem of Wagner–Whitin on a rolling horizon basis. In a rolling horizon environment, managers obtain decisions for the first period (or the first few periods) by looking at the forecasts for several periods. This article develops procedures to find optimal decisions for any specified number of initial periods (called planning horizon in the article) by using the forecast data for the minimum possible number of future periods. Computational results comparing these procedures with the other procedures reported in the literature are very encouraging.
{"title":"Minimal forecast horizon procedures for dynamic lot size models","authors":"S. Chand, T. Morton","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330110","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330110","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents new results which should be useful in finding production decisions while solving the dynamic lot sizing problem of Wagner–Whitin on a rolling horizon basis. In a rolling horizon environment, managers obtain decisions for the first period (or the first few periods) by looking at the forecasts for several periods. This article develops procedures to find optimal decisions for any specified number of initial periods (called planning horizon in the article) by using the forecast data for the minimum possible number of future periods. Computational results comparing these procedures with the other procedures reported in the literature are very encouraging.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"33 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131379773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article presents the results of comparing the performance of several cannibalization policies using a simulation model of a maintenance system with spares, repair, and resource constraints. Although the presence of cannibalization has been incorporated into a number of maintenance system models reported in the literature, the questions of whether cannibalization should be done and what factors affect canibalization have received little attention. Policies tested include both no cannibalization and unlimited cannibalization as well as other based on the number of maintenance personnel available, the short-term machine failure rate at the time of cannibalization, and the relationship between the mean cannibalization and repair rates. The best policies found are those that allow cannibalization only when it can be done quickly relative to repair or when it can be done without delaying part repair actions. The policy of complete cannibalization (always cannibalize when it is possible) is found to perform poorly except when either average maintenance personnel utilization is very low or when mean cannibalization times are very short relative to mean repair times. The latter result casts doubts on the appropriateness of the assumption of complete cannibalization in many models in the literature.
{"title":"The performance of cannibalization policies in a maintenance system with spares, repair, and resource constraints","authors":"W. Fisher, J. J. Brennan","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330102","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents the results of comparing the performance of several cannibalization policies using a simulation model of a maintenance system with spares, repair, and resource constraints. Although the presence of cannibalization has been incorporated into a number of maintenance system models reported in the literature, the questions of whether cannibalization should be done and what factors affect canibalization have received little attention. Policies tested include both no cannibalization and unlimited cannibalization as well as other based on the number of maintenance personnel available, the short-term machine failure rate at the time of cannibalization, and the relationship between the mean cannibalization and repair rates. The best policies found are those that allow cannibalization only when it can be done quickly relative to repair or when it can be done without delaying part repair actions. The policy of complete cannibalization (always cannibalize when it is possible) is found to perform poorly except when either average maintenance personnel utilization is very low or when mean cannibalization times are very short relative to mean repair times. The latter result casts doubts on the appropriateness of the assumption of complete cannibalization in many models in the literature.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"261 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133152348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
On obtient la matrice de covariance asymptotique des estimateurs de moment et on fournit des listings pour des programmes informatiques BASIC qui engendrent des tables utiles pour calculer les estimations et pour estimer la matrice de covariance asymptotique en utilisant des donnees agregees
{"title":"Tabular aids for fitting weibull moment estimates","authors":"W. Blischke, E. Scheuer","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330113","url":null,"abstract":"On obtient la matrice de covariance asymptotique des estimateurs de moment et on fournit des listings pour des programmes informatiques BASIC qui engendrent des tables utiles pour calculer les estimations et pour estimer la matrice de covariance asymptotique en utilisant des donnees agregees","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115191391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The effects of environmental stochasticity in a Lanchester-type model of combat are investigated. The methodology is based on a study of stochastic differential equations with random parameters characterized by dichotomous Markov processes. Exact expressions for the Laplace transforms of the time evolution of the first- and second-order moments of the system are obtained. A special case when the fluctuations in the parameters occur with great rapidity in comparison with the natural time scale of the system is also analyzed. The stochastic stability in the mean-square sense is discussed by using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and it is found that the stochastic perturbations tend to destabilize the system.
{"title":"A Lanchester-type model of combat with stochastic rates","authors":"Karmeshu, N. Jaiswal","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330109","url":null,"abstract":"The effects of environmental stochasticity in a Lanchester-type model of combat are investigated. The methodology is based on a study of stochastic differential equations with random parameters characterized by dichotomous Markov processes. Exact expressions for the Laplace transforms of the time evolution of the first- and second-order moments of the system are obtained. A special case when the fluctuations in the parameters occur with great rapidity in comparison with the natural time scale of the system is also analyzed. The stochastic stability in the mean-square sense is discussed by using the Routh–Hurwitz criterion and it is found that the stochastic perturbations tend to destabilize the system.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122123326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The estimation problem of normal tail probabilities is considered. The form of generalized Bayes estimators is derived and the asymptotic behavior of the mean square errors is studied. This study shows that the best unbiased estimator, a formula for which is given, is superior to the maximum likelihoood estimator or to a class of generalized Bayes procedures for large parametric values, but can be significantly improved for moderate values of the parameter.
{"title":"Estimating normal tail probabilities","authors":"A. Rukhin","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330108","url":null,"abstract":"The estimation problem of normal tail probabilities is considered. The form of generalized Bayes estimators is derived and the asymptotic behavior of the mean square errors is studied. This study shows that the best unbiased estimator, a formula for which is given, is superior to the maximum likelihoood estimator or to a class of generalized Bayes procedures for large parametric values, but can be significantly improved for moderate values of the parameter.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123606151","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Consider the following situation: Each of N different combat units is presented with a number of requirements to satisfy, each requirement being classified into one of K mutually exclusive categories. For each unit and each category, an estimate of the probability of that unit satisfying any requirement in that category is desired. The problem can be generally stated as that of estimating N different K-dimensional vectors of probabilities based upon a corresponding set of K-dimensional vectors of sample proportions. An empirical Bayes model is formulated and applied to an example from the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES). The EM algorithm provides a convenient method of estimating the prior parameters. The Bayes estimates are compared to the ordinary estimates, i.e., the sample proportions, by means of cross validation, and the Bayes estimates are shown to provide considerable improvement.
{"title":"An application of empirical bayes techniques to the simultaneous estimation of many probabilities","authors":"S. Brier, S. Zacks, W. Marlow","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330107","url":null,"abstract":"Consider the following situation: Each of N different combat units is presented with a number of requirements to satisfy, each requirement being classified into one of K mutually exclusive categories. For each unit and each category, an estimate of the probability of that unit satisfying any requirement in that category is desired. The problem can be generally stated as that of estimating N different K-dimensional vectors of probabilities based upon a corresponding set of K-dimensional vectors of sample proportions. An empirical Bayes model is formulated and applied to an example from the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES). The EM algorithm provides a convenient method of estimating the prior parameters. The Bayes estimates are compared to the ordinary estimates, i.e., the sample proportions, by means of cross validation, and the Bayes estimates are shown to provide considerable improvement.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115657533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A simple renewal process is identified to approximate the complex departure process of a queue often found in queueing network models. The arrival process to the queue is the superposition or merging of several independent component-renewal processes that are approximations of departure processes from other queues and external arrival processes; there is a single server with exponential service times, and the waiting space is infinite. The departure process of this queue is of interest because it is the arrival process to other queues in the network. The approximation proposed is a hybrid; the mean and variance of the approximating departure intervals is a weighted average of those determined by basic methods in Whitt [41] with the weighting function empirically determined using simulation. Tandem queueing systems with superposition arrival processes and exponential service times are used to evaluate the approximation. The departure process of the first queue in the tandem is approximated by a renewal process, the tandem system is replaced by two independent queues, and the second queue is solved analytically. When compared to simulation estimates, the average absolute error in hybrid approximations of the expected number in the second queue is 6%, a significant improvement over 22–41% in the basic methods.
{"title":"Approximation for the departure process of a queue in a network","authors":"S. Albin, S. Kai","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330112","url":null,"abstract":"A simple renewal process is identified to approximate the complex departure process of a queue often found in queueing network models. The arrival process to the queue is the superposition or merging of several independent component-renewal processes that are approximations of departure processes from other queues and external arrival processes; there is a single server with exponential service times, and the waiting space is infinite. The departure process of this queue is of interest because it is the arrival process to other queues in the network. The approximation proposed is a hybrid; the mean and variance of the approximating departure intervals is a weighted average of those determined by basic methods in Whitt [41] with the weighting function empirically determined using simulation. Tandem queueing systems with superposition arrival processes and exponential service times are used to evaluate the approximation. The departure process of the first queue in the tandem is approximated by a renewal process, the tandem system is replaced by two independent queues, and the second queue is solved analytically. When compared to simulation estimates, the average absolute error in hybrid approximations of the expected number in the second queue is 6%, a significant improvement over 22–41% in the basic methods.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130551771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article concerns the scheduling of n jobs around a common due date, so as to minimize the average total earliness plus total lateness of the jobs. Optimality conditions for the problem are developed, based on its equivalence to an easy scheduling problem. It seems that this problem inherently has a huge number of optimal solutions and an algorithm is developed to find many of them. The model is extended to allow for the availability of multiple parallel processors and an efficient algorithm is developed for that problem. In this more general case also, the algorithm permits great flexibility in finding an optimal schedule.
{"title":"Single- and multiple-processor models for minimizing completion time variance","authors":"Nicholas G. Hall","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330105","url":null,"abstract":"This article concerns the scheduling of n jobs around a common due date, so as to minimize the average total earliness plus total lateness of the jobs. Optimality conditions for the problem are developed, based on its equivalence to an easy scheduling problem. It seems that this problem inherently has a huge number of optimal solutions and an algorithm is developed to find many of them. The model is extended to allow for the availability of multiple parallel processors and an efficient algorithm is developed for that problem. In this more general case also, the algorithm permits great flexibility in finding an optimal schedule.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"503 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122819726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cet article continue dans la lignee des articles precedents de l'auteur, a considerer les parametres du modele de la quantite economique a commander comme des variables de decision, en introduisant une fonction de cout d'investissement qui reflete le cout de les faire varier, et d'etudier le probleme d'optimisation qui s'ensuit
{"title":"Investing in new parameter values in the discounted EOQ model","authors":"Evan L. Porteus","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330104","url":null,"abstract":"Cet article continue dans la lignee des articles precedents de l'auteur, a considerer les parametres du modele de la quantite economique a commander comme des variables de decision, en introduisant une fonction de cout d'investissement qui reflete le cout de les faire varier, et d'etudier le probleme d'optimisation qui s'ensuit","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124005096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present variants of a convergent Lagrangean relaxation algorithm for minimizing a strictly convex separable quadratic function over a transportation polytope. The algorithm alternately solves two “subproblems,” each of which has an objective function that is defined by using Lagrange multipliers derived from the other. Motivated by the natural separation of the subproblems into independent and very easily solved “subsubproblems,” the algorithm can be interpreted as the cyclic coordinate ascent method applied to the dual problem. We exhibit our computational results for different implementations of the algorithm applied to a set of large constrained matrix problems.
{"title":"A Lagrangean relaxation algorithm for the constrained matrix problem","authors":"R. Cottle, S. Duvall, K. Zikan","doi":"10.1002/NAV.3800330106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/NAV.3800330106","url":null,"abstract":"We present variants of a convergent Lagrangean relaxation algorithm for minimizing a strictly convex separable quadratic function over a transportation polytope. The algorithm alternately solves two “subproblems,” each of which has an objective function that is defined by using Lagrange multipliers derived from the other. Motivated by the natural separation of the subproblems into independent and very easily solved “subsubproblems,” the algorithm can be interpreted as the cyclic coordinate ascent method applied to the dual problem. We exhibit our computational results for different implementations of the algorithm applied to a set of large constrained matrix problems.","PeriodicalId":431817,"journal":{"name":"Naval Research Logistics Quarterly","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1986-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129645299","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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