Abstract. The recent UK referendum results and subsequent initiation of Article 50 in the 2007 Lisbon Treaty set in motion the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, acknowledge as Brexit. The result and subsequent action were unprecedented and for many unforeseeable. Apart from the political instability and division of the country, the complicated and long process of Brexit have both economic and financial consequences. With this in mind, we analyse the impact of Brexit on four main British financial markets: Equity, Foreign Exchange, Gold and Sovereign Debt; using daily data. We extendthe variance bound test proposed by Fakhry & Richter (2018) underpinned by an asymmetrical C-GARCH-m model of volatility. Unlike many in the past, we placed the emphasis on the stable markets; thus introducing the stable marketpre-condition hypothesis. We analyse the long and short run effects of Brexit on the stability of the UK’s financial market. Our results hint at a certain impact on the UK’s financial market in both the long and short runs on the market stability and hence efficiency. This seems to be dictated by the reaction of market participants to uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK Keywords. Volatility test, Asymmetrical C-GARCH-m, Financial markets, Brexit. JEL. C12, C58, D81, G01, G14, G15, G18, G40.
{"title":"Did Brexit change the behaviour of the UK’s financial markets?","authors":"Bachar Fakhry","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I2.1868","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I2.1868","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The recent UK referendum results and subsequent initiation of Article 50 in the 2007 Lisbon Treaty set in motion the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, acknowledge as Brexit. The result and subsequent action were unprecedented and for many unforeseeable. Apart from the political instability and division of the country, the complicated and long process of Brexit have both economic and financial consequences. With this in mind, we analyse the impact of Brexit on four main British financial markets: Equity, Foreign Exchange, Gold and Sovereign Debt; using daily data. We extendthe variance bound test proposed by Fakhry & Richter (2018) underpinned by an asymmetrical C-GARCH-m model of volatility. Unlike many in the past, we placed the emphasis on the stable markets; thus introducing the stable marketpre-condition hypothesis. We analyse the long and short run effects of Brexit on the stability of the UK’s financial market. Our results hint at a certain impact on the UK’s financial market in both the long and short runs on the market stability and hence efficiency. This seems to be dictated by the reaction of market participants to uncertainty surrounding the future of the UK Keywords. Volatility test, Asymmetrical C-GARCH-m, Financial markets, Brexit. JEL. C12, C58, D81, G01, G14, G15, G18, G40.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129124127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The economics discipline is a dynamic, foundational field in the social sciences. With a host of scholars eager to share the knowledge they create with the general public, the discipline addresses how scarce resources are allocated to meet human needs and objectives. Since resources are scarce and societies have to make tradeoffs between competing ends, economics offers a unique set of tools to address many of society’s most pressing concerns. Furthermore, it is common that once a scholar wins a Nobel Prize in economics that they produce a book for a broader public audience to explain their ideas. Keywords. Role of economics, History of economic thought, Economic methodology. JEL. A10, B00, B40.
{"title":"Jean Tirole, Economics for the Common Good","authors":"S. Carson","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1858","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1858","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The economics discipline is a dynamic, foundational field in the social sciences. With a host of scholars eager to share the knowledge they create with the general public, the discipline addresses how scarce resources are allocated to meet human needs and objectives. Since resources are scarce and societies have to make tradeoffs between competing ends, economics offers a unique set of tools to address many of society’s most pressing concerns. Furthermore, it is common that once a scholar wins a Nobel Prize in economics that they produce a book for a broader public audience to explain their ideas. Keywords. Role of economics, History of economic thought, Economic methodology. JEL. A10, B00, B40.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127447323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.
{"title":"Searching for the credibility of monetary policy in Turkey: Evidence from structural VAR analysis","authors":"Buket Alkan","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1851","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. A relationship between the macro shocks and the long-term inflation expectations leads to questioning the credibility of a central bank. This paper investigates the credibility of the Central Bank of Turkey by analyzing the anchoring effect of the long-term inflation expectations by using the uncertainty indicator. We conduct the analysis with the structural VAR method using survey-based inflation expectations data as well as economic uncertainty index data developed for the Turkish economy. Our results provided evidence in favor of the existing de-anchoring process and imply that the monetary policy is not fully credible in Turkey during the period under investigation. Keywords. Inflation expectations, Structural VAR, Credibility, Anchoring, The Turkish economy, Uncertainty. JEL. E52, E58.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"288 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133266681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. Since independence, Ghana has implemented many development paradigms, from big-push state-led industrialization to neoliberal market-oriented policies. However, the goal of industrialization has eluded the country. In recent years, new home-grown policy initiatives are beginning to replace neoliberal prescribed policies of Western donors and financial institutions. This study explores these new innovations focusing on the One District One factory initiative. We make the case that the policy is an innovative thinking on industrialisation and may reflect a realignment of Ghana’s development paradigm with the Beijing Consensus after many years of being taunted as a success story of IMF-World Bank neoliberal reform programmes. Keywords. Neoliberalism, Development, Beijing consensus, Washington Consensus, industrialisation. JEL. O29, O25, O10, F59.
{"title":"Searching for a development paradigm in Ghana: Can the ‘Beijing Consensus’ provide an Anchor?","authors":"I. Hlovor, Yusif Shahibu","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1837","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1837","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Since independence, Ghana has implemented many development paradigms, from big-push state-led industrialization to neoliberal market-oriented policies. However, the goal of industrialization has eluded the country. In recent years, new home-grown policy initiatives are beginning to replace neoliberal prescribed policies of Western donors and financial institutions. This study explores these new innovations focusing on the One District One factory initiative. We make the case that the policy is an innovative thinking on industrialisation and may reflect a realignment of Ghana’s development paradigm with the Beijing Consensus after many years of being taunted as a success story of IMF-World Bank neoliberal reform programmes. Keywords. Neoliberalism, Development, Beijing consensus, Washington Consensus, industrialisation. JEL. O29, O25, O10, F59.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120951687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. In this paper, we examine the impact of participation banks on the development of the hybrid banking system in the Turkish Republic, through an empirical study of independent variables that represent the development of participation banks such as allocated funds, raised funds and net profits, and the development of the mixed banking system that is represented by total assets and this is during the period of December 2011 to July 2018, it’s about 80 observations. First, we will start with the unit root test such as ADF, PP and KPSS tests to verify the stationarity of all variables, then we will apply the Johansen cointegration test for the long-term relationship to verify if there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the dependent variable and the independent ones. The results showed that all variables are stationary at the same level (2nd difference), so they are integrated in the same order (I1), while the Johansen test found that there are three long-term cointegration relationships between the variables involved. So, we concluded that participation banks contribute in the long term to the development of the mixed banking system of the Turkish Republic. Keywords. Participation banks, Mixed banking system, Turkey, Unit root test, Cointegration test. JEL. D39, E49, F69, F69, G21.
{"title":"The contribution of participation banks on the development of the mixed banking system: case of the Turkish Republic","authors":"Zouhair El Azzouzi, M’hamed Hamiche","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1841","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1841","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In this paper, we examine the impact of participation banks on the development of the hybrid banking system in the Turkish Republic, through an empirical study of independent variables that represent the development of participation banks such as allocated funds, raised funds and net profits, and the development of the mixed banking system that is represented by total assets and this is during the period of December 2011 to July 2018, it’s about 80 observations. First, we will start with the unit root test such as ADF, PP and KPSS tests to verify the stationarity of all variables, then we will apply the Johansen cointegration test for the long-term relationship to verify if there is a long-term co-integration relationship between the dependent variable and the independent ones. The results showed that all variables are stationary at the same level (2nd difference), so they are integrated in the same order (I1), while the Johansen test found that there are three long-term cointegration relationships between the variables involved. So, we concluded that participation banks contribute in the long term to the development of the mixed banking system of the Turkish Republic. Keywords. Participation banks, Mixed banking system, Turkey, Unit root test, Cointegration test. JEL. D39, E49, F69, F69, G21.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117149492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. This paper discusses the relation between centralization in union bargaining and the wage-(un)employment mix. Empirical findings point to a positive relation between the degree of coordination in union bargaining and wages till a certain point, and a negative one afterwards. A theoretical argument fits such evidence, relying on the mechanism behind the free-rider problem in union bargaining. If earnings taxes were introduced to finance the unemployment insurance fund, that relation could change. The impact on the equilibrium wages and multipliers in the several scenarios is briefly explored. Indirectly, an explanation for the shape of the empirical “wage curve” is also derived. Keywords. Monopoly unions, Wage determination models, Union bargaining, Corporatism, Wage curve, Unemployment insurance. JEL. J51, J65, E24, E62, H55, H39, D42, D43.
{"title":"Unemployment and wages and centralization in wage bargaining: Some analytical explanations","authors":"A. Martins","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V6I1.1829","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper discusses the relation between centralization in union bargaining and the wage-(un)employment mix. Empirical findings point to a positive relation between the degree of coordination in union bargaining and wages till a certain point, and a negative one afterwards. A theoretical argument fits such evidence, relying on the mechanism behind the free-rider problem in union bargaining. If earnings taxes were introduced to finance the unemployment insurance fund, that relation could change. The impact on the equilibrium wages and multipliers in the several scenarios is briefly explored. Indirectly, an explanation for the shape of the empirical “wage curve” is also derived. Keywords. Monopoly unions, Wage determination models, Union bargaining, Corporatism, Wage curve, Unemployment insurance. JEL. J51, J65, E24, E62, H55, H39, D42, D43.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122202084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The African continent for long has been an enigma for development economists, with several countries witnessing coexistence of rich natural resource base, pockets of underdevelopment and political instability. With the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a target, it is now imperative that the African countries, particularly the nations facing development challenges,need to contemplate and adopt a long-term action plan. However, the existing literature suggests that addressing the concerns of African countries requires both structural and regulatory reforms. Given the proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the world today, along with deepening of de-globalizing forces, the practical concern for the African countries is to increasingly participate in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and International Production Networks (IPNs), enhance value-addition within the domestic economy, promote equality in opportunitiesand create employment for the growing young population therein. In a sense Africa is at a juncture, where Asia stood several decades back. The volume edited by Ahlers and Kohli, an attempt to analyze the reform and consequently the growth path in Africa, is therefore a timely contribution to the existing literature.. Keywords. Political economy, Economic thought, Politics, Economic system. JEL. B10, L66, Q18.
{"title":"Theodore Ahlers & Harinder S. Kohli (eds.), Africa Reset: A New Way Forward","authors":"D. Chakraborty","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1779","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The African continent for long has been an enigma for development economists, with several countries witnessing coexistence of rich natural resource base, pockets of underdevelopment and political instability. With the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a target, it is now imperative that the African countries, particularly the nations facing development challenges,need to contemplate and adopt a long-term action plan. However, the existing literature suggests that addressing the concerns of African countries requires both structural and regulatory reforms. Given the proliferation of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the world today, along with deepening of de-globalizing forces, the practical concern for the African countries is to increasingly participate in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and International Production Networks (IPNs), enhance value-addition within the domestic economy, promote equality in opportunitiesand create employment for the growing young population therein. In a sense Africa is at a juncture, where Asia stood several decades back. The volume edited by Ahlers and Kohli, an attempt to analyze the reform and consequently the growth path in Africa, is therefore a timely contribution to the existing literature.. Keywords. Political economy, Economic thought, Politics, Economic system. JEL. B10, L66, Q18.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"8 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133327607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. This paper uses Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model (VEC) to analyze the relationship between the trade balance and real bilateral exchange rate among Australia and China during 1990 to 2016. This paper suggest that the fluctuations of the real exchange rate will have impacts for China and Australia in the short run, but will have little or no impacts in the long run. This is inconsistent with the findings of previous studies suggesting that there has a J-Curve effect in the long run. As to what factors in the long run have cushioned the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on the trade relations between Australia and China, we still need to continue exploring in the future. Keywords. Bilateral real exchange rate, Trade balance, Imports, Exports, China, Australia, VEC, J-Curve, Free trade agreement, Price level, Fluctuations. JEL. F10, F14, F15.
{"title":"Exchange rate fluctuations and the trade balance between China and Australia: An empirical study","authors":"Sihong Wu","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1805","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1805","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. This paper uses Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model (VEC) to analyze the relationship between the trade balance and real bilateral exchange rate among Australia and China during 1990 to 2016. This paper suggest that the fluctuations of the real exchange rate will have impacts for China and Australia in the short run, but will have little or no impacts in the long run. This is inconsistent with the findings of previous studies suggesting that there has a J-Curve effect in the long run. As to what factors in the long run have cushioned the impacts of exchange rate fluctuations on the trade relations between Australia and China, we still need to continue exploring in the future. Keywords. Bilateral real exchange rate, Trade balance, Imports, Exports, China, Australia, VEC, J-Curve, Free trade agreement, Price level, Fluctuations. JEL. F10, F14, F15.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130658709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The effects of the growth performances over minimum wages are examined in this study. Minimum wage is a level of income which is determined by the government in order people to be able to maintain humanitarian consumption rate under the economic conditions in which they survive. Such an partial interference to competitive economics can affect many macroeconomic variables. In this study, the relationship between minimum wage and the growth performance is investigated within fast growing Turkish economy. The effects of minimum wage over employment and how the employment rate changes by the effects of minimum wage increases reflect to the growth processes is depicted. After the applied tests, the results are acquired as there is co-integration relationship in the long run between minimum wage and the growth and Granger causality occurred in double direction. Keywords. Economic growth, Minimum wage, Employment, Unemployment. JEL. F43, E24, J31.
{"title":"Does economic growth support the minimum wage? Evidences based in Turkey","authors":"Bilal Kargi","doi":"10.1453/jepe.v5i4.1816","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/jepe.v5i4.1816","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The effects of the growth performances over minimum wages are examined in this study. Minimum wage is a level of income which is determined by the government in order people to be able to maintain humanitarian consumption rate under the economic conditions in which they survive. Such an partial interference to competitive economics can affect many macroeconomic variables. In this study, the relationship between minimum wage and the growth performance is investigated within fast growing Turkish economy. The effects of minimum wage over employment and how the employment rate changes by the effects of minimum wage increases reflect to the growth processes is depicted. After the applied tests, the results are acquired as there is co-integration relationship in the long run between minimum wage and the growth and Granger causality occurred in double direction. Keywords. Economic growth, Minimum wage, Employment, Unemployment. JEL. F43, E24, J31.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"137 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132645039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract. The globalization movements that started towards the end of the 20th century influenced many areas of the economy. As a result of the globalization, despite the persistence of the political borders, countries have established borderless relationships in the economic arena. On the other hand, along with globalization, financial crises have become more frequent in the world economy. In particular, the fact that the 2008 Global Crisis reached serious dimensions made it necessary to take measures to stabilize the markets and to evaluate the factors that would shake the market and make the market fragile. Financial fragility is a concept that is often concurrently used with the concepts of financial instability and financial crisis. Financial fragility is a hypothesis which was developed by Hyman Minsky and is different from both concepts and also is interactively affected by instability and crises. In this study, unlike other studies with reference to Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis, we aimed to identify the factors that make fragile the financial markets in Turkey. Logit and probit models were studied with the data of 1990:01-2018:05 period. With reference to the study results, the increase in ratios of the volume of bank loans and M2 occur reserves increases the possibility of future crises. Besides, it is found at the end of the study that a decrease in the composite leading indicators index and in M2 in the BIST 100 index will strengthen the probability of a crisis. Keywords. Financial fragility, Minsky hypothesis, Logit model, Probit model. JEL. G00, C12, B23.
{"title":"Analysis of factors make Turkish economy fragile by LOGIT and PROBIT models (1990.01-2018:05)","authors":"Recep Tari, Figen Büyükakın, Seda Aydin","doi":"10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1453/JEPE.V5I4.1799","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The globalization movements that started towards the end of the 20th century influenced many areas of the economy. As a result of the globalization, despite the persistence of the political borders, countries have established borderless relationships in the economic arena. On the other hand, along with globalization, financial crises have become more frequent in the world economy. In particular, the fact that the 2008 Global Crisis reached serious dimensions made it necessary to take measures to stabilize the markets and to evaluate the factors that would shake the market and make the market fragile. Financial fragility is a concept that is often concurrently used with the concepts of financial instability and financial crisis. Financial fragility is a hypothesis which was developed by Hyman Minsky and is different from both concepts and also is interactively affected by instability and crises. In this study, unlike other studies with reference to Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis, we aimed to identify the factors that make fragile the financial markets in Turkey. Logit and probit models were studied with the data of 1990:01-2018:05 period. With reference to the study results, the increase in ratios of the volume of bank loans and M2 occur reserves increases the possibility of future crises. Besides, it is found at the end of the study that a decrease in the composite leading indicators index and in M2 in the BIST 100 index will strengthen the probability of a crisis. Keywords. Financial fragility, Minsky hypothesis, Logit model, Probit model. JEL. G00, C12, B23.","PeriodicalId":432468,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economics and Political Economy","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123605655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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