Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-136-163
Vera Barinova, Aleksey Shestoperov, Yulia Tsareva
Russia’s experiment with legalization of self-employment has gone on for more than three years. The number of persons officially registered as self-employed exceeded five million by mid-2022, and they have been included in the employment statistics for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are a target indicator for one of the national goals defined by the President of the Russian Federation. However, the increase in self-employment may not indicate a qualitative advance in the SME sector but may instead partially conceal a decline in the main indicators. The purpose of this article is to trace the principal trends and factors in the development of self-employment in Russia’s various regions, including a possible exodus of workers from SMEs to self-employment. Based on an econometric model, the article analyses the main factors that determine the development of self-employment in Russia’s regions: GRP per capita, average salary, unemployment, the economic structure, and human capital. The results indicate that self-employment in the regions is correlated with such negative economic factors as low salaries and GRP per capita, high unemployment, low-quality human capital, and less industrial productivity in the regional economy. The growth of self-employment is not accompanied by a qualitative advance in the SME sector. Analysis of current development trends for Russia’s SME sector has shown that the growth in selfemployment is due mostly to legalization of micro-businesses. During a crisis, self-employment becomes a way for entrepreneurs to maintain their income. The article proposes measures for supporting formal employment in the SME sector in order to help the self-employed create promising businesses.
{"title":"Self-Employment in Russia: The Development of the SME Sector or the “Garage Economy” Trend","authors":"Vera Barinova, Aleksey Shestoperov, Yulia Tsareva","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-136-163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-136-163","url":null,"abstract":"Russia’s experiment with legalization of self-employment has gone on for more than three years. The number of persons officially registered as self-employed exceeded five million by mid-2022, and they have been included in the employment statistics for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are a target indicator for one of the national goals defined by the President of the Russian Federation. However, the increase in self-employment may not indicate a qualitative advance in the SME sector but may instead partially conceal a decline in the main indicators. The purpose of this article is to trace the principal trends and factors in the development of self-employment in Russia’s various regions, including a possible exodus of workers from SMEs to self-employment. Based on an econometric model, the article analyses the main factors that determine the development of self-employment in Russia’s regions: GRP per capita, average salary, unemployment, the economic structure, and human capital. The results indicate that self-employment in the regions is correlated with such negative economic factors as low salaries and GRP per capita, high unemployment, low-quality human capital, and less industrial productivity in the regional economy. The growth of self-employment is not accompanied by a qualitative advance in the SME sector. Analysis of current development trends for Russia’s SME sector has shown that the growth in selfemployment is due mostly to legalization of micro-businesses. During a crisis, self-employment becomes a way for entrepreneurs to maintain their income. The article proposes measures for supporting formal employment in the SME sector in order to help the self-employed create promising businesses.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"51 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135596796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-2-44-79
Stepan P. Zemtsov, Alexander A. Mikhailov, Vera A. Barinova
{"title":"Sanctions, Exit of Foreign Companies and Business Activity in the Russian Regions","authors":"Stepan P. Zemtsov, Alexander A. Mikhailov, Vera A. Barinova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-2-44-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-2-44-79","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"285 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135685793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-36-57
Ivan M. Baydakov
The article provides a history of Russia’s modern banking sector. Russia has stabilized after a great many socio-economic and socio-cultural transformations, and the time is apt for a historical treatment of the topic. The author analyzes the development of the banking system from its beginnings during perestroika when the first commercial banks appeared in the Russian Federation. The formation of the Russian State Bank in July 1991 initiated the first stage of development, which ended in late 1995 when the banking community was able to recover from Russia’s first systemic banking crisis and adapt to market realities. The article identifies and analyzes the distinctive features of the banking sector during the first stage of its formation. Before perestroika, the main task of the Soviet Union’s single-tier banking system was to arrange financing for the economy and supervise budgetary spending and estimates. Even during its early stages the Russian banking system began to coalesce into two tiers as banks were exposed to market conditions, gained experience in commercial credit, and dealt in market-based financial instruments. When the Soviet Union collapsed, there were 869 banking organizations operating in Russia, and these provided a basis for structuring the banking sector during the next stage of the economy. After 1991 the country had to meet the challenge of detaching the economy of the RSFSR from the post-Soviet republics, rebuilding a system for mutual settlements in a national economy disrupted by crisis, and finding ways to regulate the banking sector and make it more reliable
{"title":"The Origin of the Russian Banking System From 1991 to 1995","authors":"Ivan M. Baydakov","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-36-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-36-57","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides a history of Russia’s modern banking sector. Russia has stabilized after a great many socio-economic and socio-cultural transformations, and the time is apt for a historical treatment of the topic. The author analyzes the development of the banking system from its beginnings during perestroika when the first commercial banks appeared in the Russian Federation. The formation of the Russian State Bank in July 1991 initiated the first stage of development, which ended in late 1995 when the banking community was able to recover from Russia’s first systemic banking crisis and adapt to market realities. The article identifies and analyzes the distinctive features of the banking sector during the first stage of its formation. Before perestroika, the main task of the Soviet Union’s single-tier banking system was to arrange financing for the economy and supervise budgetary spending and estimates. Even during its early stages the Russian banking system began to coalesce into two tiers as banks were exposed to market conditions, gained experience in commercial credit, and dealt in market-based financial instruments. When the Soviet Union collapsed, there were 869 banking organizations operating in Russia, and these provided a basis for structuring the banking sector during the next stage of the economy. After 1991 the country had to meet the challenge of detaching the economy of the RSFSR from the post-Soviet republics, rebuilding a system for mutual settlements in a national economy disrupted by crisis, and finding ways to regulate the banking sector and make it more reliable","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135952946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Panel discussion of: Women in politics","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad005","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47128592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-8-45
Alexander Abramov, Maria Chernova
A mandatory savings pillar was added to the Russian pension system in 2002, but by 2022 the Ministry of Finance terminated it and transformed it into voluntary pension savings. Because it was in effect for much less time than the typical life-cycle horizon, mandatory pension savings never had a chance to show its potential for increasing the pension benefits of future pensioners. The successful implementation of a mandatory savings pillar requires that general rules and regulation remain stable over at least a 40-year time horizon for the accumulation phase and a 20-year time horizon for the decumulation or payout phase. In addition to the brevity of its existence, the mandatory savings pillar also faced several other obstacles. The state prioritized the welfare of existing pensioners, and this bias eventually led to the introduction of more and more restrictions on the pension savings pillar and its coverage. Many problems arose in the administration of pension savings and in coordinating the actions of various government departments involved in its regulation. Low investment efficiency for pension savings, irrational asset allocation in non-state pension funds’ portfolios, and poor active management decisions were among other issues. Based on the problems outlined, the authors have formulated basic proposals for the future of the pension savings system
{"title":"Investing Pension Savings in Russia: Results and Lessons for the Future","authors":"Alexander Abramov, Maria Chernova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-8-45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-8-45","url":null,"abstract":"A mandatory savings pillar was added to the Russian pension system in 2002, but by 2022 the Ministry of Finance terminated it and transformed it into voluntary pension savings. Because it was in effect for much less time than the typical life-cycle horizon, mandatory pension savings never had a chance to show its potential for increasing the pension benefits of future pensioners. The successful implementation of a mandatory savings pillar requires that general rules and regulation remain stable over at least a 40-year time horizon for the accumulation phase and a 20-year time horizon for the decumulation or payout phase. In addition to the brevity of its existence, the mandatory savings pillar also faced several other obstacles. The state prioritized the welfare of existing pensioners, and this bias eventually led to the introduction of more and more restrictions on the pension savings pillar and its coverage. Many problems arose in the administration of pension savings and in coordinating the actions of various government departments involved in its regulation. Low investment efficiency for pension savings, irrational asset allocation in non-state pension funds’ portfolios, and poor active management decisions were among other issues. Based on the problems outlined, the authors have formulated basic proposals for the future of the pension savings system","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135596763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-110-135
Nikita Fokin
This paper examines the quality of nowcasts and forecasts for Russian GDP and its components (in constant and current prices) using a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression model (MFBVAR) which is currently one of the most advanced time series forecasting models. It enables use of quarterly and monthly frequency data within a single monthly frequency VAR model in a statespace form while taking into account the intra-quarter dynamics of monthly indicators; this approach improves forecasting accuracy when new monthly data is published. The MFBVAR model’s resistance to the jagged edge problem is especially important for real-time forecasting, and it can incorporate a large number of predictors because of its Bayesian estimation with a Minnesota-type prior distribution. The paper sets up three experiments with differing availability of monthly data in order to test pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting and forecasting. The MFBVAR model exhibits statistically significant outperformance compared to a naïve benchmark, as well as to ARIMA and quarterly BVAR models, in nowcasting and forecasting a few steps ahead for GDP, consumption and foreign trade variables. The test sample is also quite representative and covers two crisis periods, specifically 2015 and 2020. In both crises, the model accurately estimates the scale of the recession and recovery of economic activity. Nevertheless, there was no significant improvement in the quality of forecasts when new available monthly data was introduced.
{"title":"Nowcasting and Forecasting Key Russian Macroeconomic Variables With the MFBVAR Model","authors":"Nikita Fokin","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-110-135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-110-135","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the quality of nowcasts and forecasts for Russian GDP and its components (in constant and current prices) using a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregression model (MFBVAR) which is currently one of the most advanced time series forecasting models. It enables use of quarterly and monthly frequency data within a single monthly frequency VAR model in a statespace form while taking into account the intra-quarter dynamics of monthly indicators; this approach improves forecasting accuracy when new monthly data is published. The MFBVAR model’s resistance to the jagged edge problem is especially important for real-time forecasting, and it can incorporate a large number of predictors because of its Bayesian estimation with a Minnesota-type prior distribution. The paper sets up three experiments with differing availability of monthly data in order to test pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting and forecasting. The MFBVAR model exhibits statistically significant outperformance compared to a naïve benchmark, as well as to ARIMA and quarterly BVAR models, in nowcasting and forecasting a few steps ahead for GDP, consumption and foreign trade variables. The test sample is also quite representative and covers two crisis periods, specifically 2015 and 2020. In both crises, the model accurately estimates the scale of the recession and recovery of economic activity. Nevertheless, there was no significant improvement in the quality of forecasts when new available monthly data was introduced.","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"278 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135597012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-01DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-78-107
Igor K. Klyuchnikov, Oleg I. Klyuchnikov, Maria V. Sigova
Instruments aimed at sustainable economic development have become widespread in financial markets and are firmly embedded in economic transactions and the system of credit and financial regulation. Incorporating ESG principles into economic activity enables companies to be involved in solving environmental, social and managerial challenges as well as to promote these principles by means of instruments designed to attract and allocate resources that advance sustainable development. As stable financial instruments for these purposes are developed and absorbed into both micro and macro management of the economy, the practices that govern their registration, accounting and listing on exchanges are changing in turn. A parallel process of conceptualizing and reaching theoretical understanding of these new instruments for encouraging sustainable economic development is also underway. Systematic concepts applicable to sustainable financial instruments have been developed, and the role of these instruments in financing ESG transition and development of the financial market has been clarified. The article examines the evolution of sustainable financial instruments, identifies their essential features and role in investment decisions, analyzes the most significant ways they impact the economy and financial markets, and assesses how prepared the financial sector is for their development. Three research hypotheses are put forward. First, economic entities are successfully adapting to the new concept of sustainable financing. Second, the increased inherent complexity of the new instruments and effort needed to prepare them is partially offset by their standardization, as well as by a simplified scheme for their circulation, maintenance and supervision. And third, sustainable development instruments such as green bonds, social bonds, sustainable development bonds, sustainability-related bonds and transitional period bonds contribute to a reassessment of market efficiency and the rationality of market participants
{"title":"Sustainable Financial Instruments: Their Current State and Prospects","authors":"Igor K. Klyuchnikov, Oleg I. Klyuchnikov, Maria V. Sigova","doi":"10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-78-107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2023-4-78-107","url":null,"abstract":"Instruments aimed at sustainable economic development have become widespread in financial markets and are firmly embedded in economic transactions and the system of credit and financial regulation. Incorporating ESG principles into economic activity enables companies to be involved in solving environmental, social and managerial challenges as well as to promote these principles by means of instruments designed to attract and allocate resources that advance sustainable development. As stable financial instruments for these purposes are developed and absorbed into both micro and macro management of the economy, the practices that govern their registration, accounting and listing on exchanges are changing in turn. A parallel process of conceptualizing and reaching theoretical understanding of these new instruments for encouraging sustainable economic development is also underway. Systematic concepts applicable to sustainable financial instruments have been developed, and the role of these instruments in financing ESG transition and development of the financial market has been clarified. The article examines the evolution of sustainable financial instruments, identifies their essential features and role in investment decisions, analyzes the most significant ways they impact the economy and financial markets, and assesses how prepared the financial sector is for their development. Three research hypotheses are put forward. First, economic entities are successfully adapting to the new concept of sustainable financing. Second, the increased inherent complexity of the new instruments and effort needed to prepare them is partially offset by their standardization, as well as by a simplified scheme for their circulation, maintenance and supervision. And third, sustainable development instruments such as green bonds, social bonds, sustainable development bonds, sustainability-related bonds and transitional period bonds contribute to a reassessment of market efficiency and the rationality of market participants","PeriodicalId":43996,"journal":{"name":"Ekonomicheskaya politika","volume":"80 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135954432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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