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Fuzzy portfolio optimization with tax, transaction cost and investment amount: a developing country case 考虑税收、交易成本和投资额的模糊投资组合优化:一个发展中国家案例
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.17535/crorr.2019.0022
Gülcan Petriçli, A. G. G. Emel, Tuba Bora Kilincarslan
The socioeconomic or political structures of countries and investment costs play a crucial role in investor decisions, especially in developing countries where the environment is unstable. In this regard, fuzzy models that consider the investment amount and cost may enable making more realistic decisions rather than the deterministic models used in portfolio optimization (PO). Hence, the objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the environment, investment amount and cost on PO in a politically, socially and economically unstable environment. Konno-Yamazaki PO model was fuzzified by adopting fuzzy linear programming (FLP) approaches of Verdegay and Werners for this purpose. Afterward, extended models were created. To do that, investment amount, tax and transaction costs were integrated into the return constraint of the fuzzified models. Mean-Variance Model (MVM) of Markowitz was also used for comparatively interpreting the results of the optimization. Results show that the fuzzified models based on Verdegay and Werners FLP approaches can be suggested as a decision-making tool, respectively for risk-averse and risk-taker investors. The extended models provide much better results compared to the fuzzified models. On the other hand, they are not more successful than the MVM in an unstable environment but the stable environment. The main contributions are onsidering political, social and economic events in the optimization, comparatively analyzing fuzzified Konno-Yamazaki model with its extended versions and the MVM, investigating the relationship between optimization models and investor types.
国家的社会经济或政治结构和投资成本在投资者决策中起着至关重要的作用,特别是在环境不稳定的发展中国家。在这方面,考虑投资金额和成本的模糊模型可能比投资组合优化(PO)中使用的确定性模型能够做出更现实的决策。因此,本文的目的是研究在政治、社会和经济不稳定的环境下,环境、投资金额和成本对PO的影响。为此,采用Verdegay和Werners的模糊线性规划(FLP)方法对Konno-Yamazaki PO模型进行模糊化。然后,创建扩展模型。为此,将投资金额、税收和交易成本纳入模糊模型的收益约束中。采用Markowitz的均值-方差模型(Mean-Variance Model, MVM)对优化结果进行比较解释。结果表明,基于Verdegay和Werners FLP方法的模糊化模型可以分别作为风险厌恶型和风险承担型投资者的决策工具。与模糊化模型相比,扩展模型提供了更好的结果。另一方面,它们在不稳定的环境中并不比MVM更成功,而是在稳定的环境中更成功。主要贡献是在优化中考虑政治、社会和经济事件,比较分析了模糊Konno-Yamazaki模型及其扩展版本和MVM,研究了优化模型与投资者类型之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Hypothetical extraction approach for measuring total economic effects of Croatian ICT sector 衡量克罗地亚信息通信技术部门总体经济影响的假设提取方法
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-08 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0012
Damira Keček, V. Boljuncic, Davor Mikulić
The aim of this paper is to estimate total effects of the ICT sector to the growth and development of the Croatian economy. Direct, indirect and induced effects for the period 2010-2015 are expressed in terms of output, gross value added and employment. Output, gross value added and employment of ICT sector is estimated by using hypothetical extraction method. Empirical results of conducted analyzes show that the share of Croatian ICT sectors’ total effects in terms of output, gross value added and employment during the recession period 2010-2013 was decreasing. In the period of economic recovery 2014-2015, related to the accession process of Republic of Croatia to the European Union, total effects of ICT sector in terms of output, gross value added and employment increased. In 2015 the share of the total effects of the ICT sector in terms of output, gross value added and employment in total Croatian economy amounted to 7.37%, 7.74% and 5.58% respectively.
本文的目的是估计ICT部门对克罗地亚经济增长和发展的总影响。2010-2015年期间的直接、间接和诱发效应以产出、总增加值和就业来表示。采用假设提取法对我国信息通信技术产业的总产值、增加值和就业进行了估算。进行分析的实证结果表明,在2010-2013年经济衰退期间,克罗地亚ICT部门在产出、总增加值和就业方面的总影响份额正在下降。在2014-2015年经济复苏期间,与克罗地亚共和国加入欧盟进程有关,ICT行业在产出、总增加值和就业方面的总效应有所增加。2015年,在克罗地亚经济总量中,信息通信技术部门在产出、总增加值和就业方面的总影响份额分别为7.37%、7.74%和5.58%。
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引用次数: 3
Jordan neural network for inflation forecasting 通货膨胀预测的Jordan神经网络
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0003
Tea Šestanović
In times of pronounced nonlinearity of macroeconomic variables and in situations when variables are not normally distributed, i.e. when the assumption of i.i.d. is not fulfilled, neural networks (NNs) should be used for forecasting. In this paper, Jordan neural network (JNN), a special type of NNs is examined, because of its advantages in time series forecasting suitable for inflation forecasting. The variables used as inputs include labour market variable, financial variable, external factor and lagged inflation, i.e. the most commonly used variables in previous researches. The research is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries in the period from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on 250 estimated JNNs, which differ in selected variables, sample breaking point and varying parameters (number of hidden neurons, weight value of the context unit), the model adequacy indicators for each JNN are calculated for two periods: in-the-sample and out-of-sample. Finally, the optimal JNN for inflation forecasting is obtained as the best compromise solution between low mean squared error inthe-sample and out-of-sample and low number of parameters to estimate. This paper contributes to existing literature in using JNN for inflation forecasting since it is rarely used for macroeconomic time series prediction in general. Moreover, this paper defines which set of variables contributes to the best inflation forecast. Additionally, JNN is examined thoroughly by fixing certain parameters of the model and alternating other parameters to contribute to the JNN literature, i.e. finding the optimal JNN.
在宏观经济变量明显非线性的情况下,在变量非正态分布的情况下,即当i.i.d假设不满足时,应使用神经网络(nn)进行预测。Jordan neural network (JNN)是一种特殊类型的神经网络,由于其在时间序列预测方面的优势而适用于通货膨胀预测。作为输入的变量包括劳动力市场变量、金融变量、外部因素和滞后通货膨胀,即以前研究中最常用的变量。该研究是在1999年1月至2017年1月期间欧元区国家的总体水平上进行的。基于250个估计的JNN,这些JNN在选择的变量、样本断点和不同的参数(隐藏神经元的数量、上下文单元的权重值)上不同,每个JNN的模型充分性指标在样本内和样本外两个周期内计算。最后,得到了用于通货膨胀预测的最优JNN,作为样本内和样本外均方误差较小和需要估计的参数数量较少之间的最佳折衷解。本文对使用神经网络进行通货膨胀预测的现有文献有所贡献,因为它通常很少用于宏观经济时间序列预测。此外,本文还定义了哪一组变量有助于最佳通货膨胀预测。此外,通过固定模型的某些参数和交替其他参数来彻底检查JNN,以贡献JNN文献,即找到最优JNN。
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引用次数: 5
Identifying challenges and priorities for developing smart city initiatives and applications 确定发展智能城市计划和应用程序的挑战和优先事项
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0011
M. Ćukušić, Mario Jadrić, Tea Mijac
The ubiquity of the technology and the availability of (open) data automatically collected in urban environments generate new opportunities, not only in tracking and managing public information services and resources, but also in the way we describe, implement and use these services. Although recent studies have proven that different smart city applications could improve some quality-of-life indicators by as much as 10–30 percent, at the same time it is reported that even the world cities that implement cutting-edge smart technologies are still at the beginning of their journey in a number of aspects. In an effort to identify and explore the challenges, the potential and the priorities for the implementation of smart city applications in a national/local context, a workshop followed by a research survey was conducted. To that end, a suitable research framework related to implementation of over 50 up-to-date smart city applications was adapted, extended and operationalized. The results of the study expose the strategic factors as the most challenging ones in the long-run in the national context of Croatia. In terms of local priorities for introducing smart city applications, the experts agreed on the most important and the least important smart city applications as well as on the potential to introduce these applications within 5 years. For the selection and prioritization of smart city applications in the given context, a proof-of-concept of a decision support tool intended for city managers is then proposed based on simulation modelling.
该技术的普遍性和在城市环境中自动收集的(开放)数据的可用性产生了新的机会,不仅在跟踪和管理公共信息服务和资源方面,而且在我们描述、实施和使用这些服务的方式方面。尽管最近的研究证明,不同的智能城市应用可以将一些生活质量指标提高10%至30%,但据报道,即使是实施尖端智能技术的世界城市,在许多方面仍处于起步阶段。为了确定和探索在国家/地方范围内实施智能城市应用的挑战、潜力和优先事项,举办了一次研讨会,随后进行了一次研究调查。为此,调整、扩展并实施了一个与实施50多个最新智能城市应用程序有关的适当研究框架。研究结果表明,在克罗地亚的国家背景下,战略因素是长期最具挑战性的因素。在引入智能城市应用的地方优先事项方面,专家们就最重要和最不重要的智能城市应用以及在5年内引入这些应用的潜力达成了一致。为了在给定的背景下选择和确定智能城市应用的优先级,基于模拟建模,提出了一种面向城市管理者的决策支持工具的概念验证。
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引用次数: 13
Optimization of a perishable inventory system with both stochastic demand and supply: comparison of two scenario approaches 具有随机需求和供应的易腐库存系统的优化:两种情景方法的比较
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0016
D. Nguyen, Haoxun Chen
In this paper, we study a multi-period inventory model for a perishable product with both stochastic supply and demand in a rolling horizon framework. The product has a fixed shelf life such as fresh products, blood cells, chemicals, drugs and other pharmaceutical products. The objective is to minimize the expected total cost composed of ordering, purchasing, holding, shortage and waste costs. We focus on finding a high-quality solution close to the optimal solution of the model that provides decision support for decision-makers. We propose a stochastic programming model and transform it into MILP model based on conditional scenarios (CS) approach to reduce the computational burden. By comparing with the sample average approximation (SAA) method in a numerical study, we show that our method works efficiently.
本文研究了在滚动水平框架下具有随机供给和随机需求的易腐产品的多周期库存模型。有固定保质期的产品如生鲜产品、血细胞、化学品、药品等医药制品。目标是最小化由订购、采购、持有、短缺和浪费成本组成的预期总成本。我们专注于寻找接近模型最优解的高质量解,为决策者提供决策支持。为了减少计算量,提出了一种基于条件情景(CS)方法的随机规划模型,并将其转化为MILP模型。通过与样本平均逼近(SAA)方法的数值比较,证明了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
Investigation of the optimal number of clusters by the adaptive EM algorithm 基于自适应EM算法的最优聚类数研究
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0001
V. Novoselac
This paper considers the investigation of the optimal number of clusters for datasets that are modeled as the Gaussian mixture. For that purpose, the adaptive method that is based on the modified Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed. The modification is conducted within the hidden variable of the standard EM algorithm. Assuming that data are multivariate normally distributed, where each component of the Gaussian mixture corresponds to one cluster, the modification is provided by utilizing the fact that the Mahalanobis distance of samples follows a Chi-square distribution. Besides, the quantity measure is constructed in order to determine number of clusters. The proposed method is presented in several numerical examples.
本文考虑了高斯混合模型数据集的最优聚类数的研究。为此,提出了基于改进的期望最大化(EM)算法的自适应方法。修正是在标准电磁算法的隐变量内进行的。假设数据是多元正态分布的,其中高斯混合物的每个组成部分对应于一个簇,通过利用样本的马氏距离遵循卡方分布的事实来提供修改。此外,为了确定聚类的数量,构造了数量度量。给出了几个数值算例。
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引用次数: 0
The analysis of contextual variables affecting the efficiency of fiscal rules in the EU 影响欧盟财政规则效率的情境变量分析
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0014
Maja Mihelja Žaja, Gordana Kordić, Margaret Gardijan Kedžo
Fiscal rules are among the cornerstones of macroeconomic policies in the European Union, both on the national and the supranational level. The importance of enacting and conducting the fiscal rules has become apparent after the expansion of public debts and budget deficits in the period of the global financial crisis. Besides the supranational rules, governments impose national fiscal rules in order to fulfill the convergence criteria for public debt and the budget deficit. Still, there is an open question on their influence on other economic parameters. This paper examines contextual variables that influenced the efficiency of implementing fiscal rules in 28 European Union countries. We observe the period of the last financial crisis and its aftermath when most of the countries introduced new or adjusted existing national fiscal rules, using two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The main goal of the paper is to study the impact of contextual variables on fiscal rules’ efficiency scores. In the first stage, we specify the DEA model to estimate the relative efficiency for each observed country in each year in the period from 2008 to 2016. After that, in the second stage, the efficiency scores are regressed on several contextual variables to observe the factors that explicate the variation in DEA-efficiency.
无论是在国家层面还是在超国家层面,财政规则都是欧盟宏观经济政策的基石之一。在经历了全球金融危机时期公共债务和预算赤字的扩大之后,制定和执行财政规则的重要性变得更加明显。除了超国家规则外,各国政府还制定国家财政规则,以满足公共债务和预算赤字的趋同标准。不过,它们对其他经济参数的影响仍是一个悬而未决的问题。本文考察了影响28个欧盟国家实施财政规则效率的背景变量。我们使用两阶段数据包络分析(DEA)观察了上一次金融危机及其余波期间,当时大多数国家出台了新的或调整了现有的国家财政规则。本文的主要目的是研究上下文变量对财政规则效率得分的影响。在第一阶段,我们指定了DEA模型来估计2008 - 2016年期间每个观测国家每年的相对效率。之后,在第二阶段,效率得分回归到几个上下文变量,以观察解释dea效率变化的因素。
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引用次数: 3
Structural equation modeling in the acceptance of internet banking in the city of Split 斯普利特市网上银行接受度的结构方程建模
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0013
Marija Vuković, S. Pivac, Duje Kundid
Electronic banking and electronic commerce have lately become an inevitable aspect of financial services. According to data about the percentage of users of Internet banking in Europe, Croatia is at the bottom of the list, with a low number of users. Thus, the question of the acceptance and use of this kind of technology arises. This research uses structural equation modeling to explore whether the motivation for the acceptance and use of Internet banking can be explained by the technology acceptance model (TAM) in the city of Split, Croatia. TAM explains the intent of using information systems through the perceived ease of use and the perceived usefulness of a system. It consists of multiple causal relationships, so structural equation modeling is adequate for hypothesis testing. A survey analysis was designed and applied on a sample of 282 working residents of Split. To make the results more credible, the gender and age structure of the sample was harmonized with the population. It is concluded that both elements of TAM positively influence the acceptance of Internet banking in Split. Since there is not much research on the use of Internet banking in Croatia and Southeast Europe, this research contributes to the poor amount of literature in this scientific area for these countries. The research findings can also help banks to understand the factors of Internet banking acceptance and to develop expansion strategies. Future research could include a cross-country comparison of individuals’ perception about Internet banking, as well as the dependence relationships of TAM factors.
最近,电子银行和电子商务已成为金融服务的一个不可避免的方面。根据欧洲网上银行用户比例的数据,克罗地亚的用户数量较低,排名垫底。因此,出现了接受和使用这类技术的问题。本研究使用结构方程模型来探索克罗地亚斯普利特市的技术接受模型(TAM)是否可以解释接受和使用互联网银行的动机。TAM通过感知系统的易用性和有用性来解释使用信息系统的意图。它由多个因果关系组成,因此结构方程模型足以进行假设检验。设计了一项调查分析,并将其应用于斯普利特282名在职居民的样本中。为了使结果更加可信,样本的性别和年龄结构与人群相协调。结果表明,TAM的两个因素都对斯普利特接受网上银行产生了积极影响。由于克罗地亚和东南欧没有太多关于网上银行使用的研究,这项研究导致这些国家在这一科学领域的文献数量很少。研究结果也有助于银行了解网上银行接受度的因素,并制定扩张策略。未来的研究可能包括对个人对网上银行的认知以及TAM因素的依赖关系进行跨国比较。
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引用次数: 1
Multi-objective programming methodology for solving economic diplomacy resource allocation problem 解决经济外交资源配置问题的多目标规划方法
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0015
D. Mlinarić, Tunjo Perić, J. Matejaš
Economic diplomacy is an important prerequisite for achieving the economic goals of any country. The issue is worth analysing from several aspects. Since there is a lack of literature in the field, this paper may be one of the first steps in this direction. It focuses on a clear exposition and explanation of multi-objective programming methodology and its connection with economic diplomacy at the micro-level. This connection is achieved by constructing a model that optimises funds allocation for economic diplomacy costs. The model uses multi-objective programming methodology and takes into account the relevant economic diplomacy funding determinants. It defines measurements of criteria, budget limitation, efficiency maximization, and location. The application of the model is illustrated by a numerical example.
经济外交是实现任何国家经济目标的重要前提。这个问题值得从几个方面来分析。由于该领域缺乏文献,本文可能是朝这个方向迈出的第一步。它侧重于明确阐述和解释多目标规划方法及其与微观经济外交的联系。这种联系是通过构建一个模型来实现的,该模型优化了经济外交成本的资金分配。该模型采用多目标规划方法,并考虑到相关的经济外交资金决定因素。它定义了标准、预算限制、效率最大化和位置的度量。通过数值算例说明了该模型的应用。
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引用次数: 8
Optimising the number of teaching and researching staff within Croatian higher education system 优化克罗地亚高等教育系统的教学和研究人员数量
IF 0.7 Q4 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.17535/CRORR.2019.0010
B. Marasović, I. Tadić, Tea Kalinić
. Human resources represent crucial resource and capital for any organization’s success, because they generate knowledge, skills, abilities and experience which distinguish organizations and emphasize their competitive advantage. Nowadays, managers are struggling in their competition in order to maximize performance results and other positive effects obtained by their crucial resource and in the same time minimizing production costs and other belonging losses. Although, higher education does not represent production in the true sense of the word, management leads the same battle, related to faculty teaching and researching staff workload, setting goals and various constrains. The main aim of this paper is optimization of human resource allocation within Croatian higher education system, according to several goals, related to their teaching and researching staff workload, minimizing deviation from set goals defined according to Croatian higher education regulations. The paper suggests the use of integer goal programming model in order to find optimal solution presented with the number of teachers and researchers within each department of chosen faculty. The model will be applied to the example of Croatian faculty, due to certain specificities of Croatian higher education system and will be applicable to any other Croatian faculty. Different optimal model solutions, obtained for different number of goals, will be compared within the paper. This model will secure optimal level of teaching and researching positions, considering multiple goals, with the emphasize of evolution and progression on individual level, simultaneously providing the best quality for students, as well as competitive and profitable work of the institution.
. 人力资源是任何组织成功的关键资源和资本,因为他们产生的知识、技能、能力和经验使组织与众不同,并强调其竞争优势。如今,管理者们在竞争中挣扎,以最大限度地利用他们的关键资源获得绩效结果和其他积极影响,同时最大限度地减少生产成本和其他归属损失。虽然高等教育不代表真正意义上的生产,但管理领导着同样的战斗,涉及教师教学和研究人员的工作量,设定目标和各种约束。本文的主要目的是根据几个目标优化克罗地亚高等教育系统内的人力资源配置,这些目标与他们的教学和研究人员的工作量有关,最大限度地减少与根据克罗地亚高等教育法规定义的既定目标的偏差。本文建议使用整数目标规划模型,以在所选学院的每个部门中教师和研究人员的数量为最优解。由于克罗地亚高等教育制度的某些特点,该模式将适用于克罗地亚教员的例子,并将适用于任何其他克罗地亚教员。本文将比较不同目标数量下得到的不同最优模型解。这种模式将确保教学和研究职位的最佳水平,考虑多个目标,强调个人水平的发展和进步,同时为学生提供最好的质量,以及机构的竞争和盈利工作。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Croatian Operational Research Review
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