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Systemic Risk Transmission from the United States to Asian Economies During the COVID-19 Period 新冠肺炎期间美国向亚洲经济体的系统性风险传播
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221150539
Shivani Narayan, Dilip Kumar
The study investigates the systemic risk transmission from the US banking sector and the US market to the five most economically impacted Asian nations (Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, India, and Singapore) during the COVID-19 period of 2020. We consider the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) approach to estimate the systemic risk of the given economies at 5% quantile (for severe downturn risk) and 20% quantile (for moderate downturn risk). Our findings demonstrate a rise in systemic risk for these Asian countries in 2020, particularly in the first half of the year. The findings also provide evidence of the significant systemic risk transmission from the US banking sector and the US stock market to the majority of the given Asian economies at both quantiles. The study further highlights the significant contribution of the US financial market in increasing the systemic risk of the given Asian economies in 2020. We find similar results for systemic risk transmission from the UK, the European Union, and Japan to the given Asian economies. The findings have implications for market participants, risk managers, and regulators who are concerned with risk diversification and tracking the routes of risk shock transmission. JEL Codes: G10; G18; G20
该研究调查了2020年新冠肺炎期间,美国银行业和美国市场向五个受经济影响最大的亚洲国家(泰国、马来西亚、菲律宾、印度和新加坡)的系统性风险传播。我们考虑条件风险值(CoVaR)方法来估计给定经济体的系统风险,分位数为5%(针对严重衰退风险)和20%(针对中度衰退风险)。我们的研究结果表明,2020年,特别是上半年,这些亚洲国家的系统性风险有所上升。研究结果还提供了证据,证明美国银行业和美国股市在这两个分位数上都向大多数特定的亚洲经济体传递了重大的系统性风险。该研究进一步强调了美国金融市场在2020年增加特定亚洲经济体系统性风险方面的重大贡献。我们发现,从英国、欧盟和日本到特定亚洲经济体的系统性风险传播也有类似的结果。这些发现对市场参与者、风险管理者和监管机构都有影响,他们关心风险分散和跟踪风险冲击传播的途径。JEL代码:G10;G18;G20
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引用次数: 0
Auditor Exits and Firm Performance: Is There a Link? 审计师退出与公司绩效:有联系吗?
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-02-05 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221144486
Saibal Ghosh
Employing firm-level data for 2011–2020, we explore the impact of auditor exit on firm performance. Using profitability and growth as outcome variables, the findings suggest that auditor exit leads to a dampening of profit, but growth prospects are not adversely affected. However, firms’ stock returns are adversely impacted over the immediate to medium term. This impact differs across ownership, especially when interactive effects are taken on board. Among the reasons, resignations and noncooperation by management are most detrimental to firm behavior. JEL Codes: G 32; M 42
利用2011-2020年公司层面的数据,我们探讨了审计师离职对公司业绩的影响。将盈利能力和增长作为结果变量,研究结果表明,审计师的离职会导致利润下降,但增长前景不会受到不利影响。然而,公司的股票回报在短期到中期都会受到不利影响。这种影响因所有权而异,尤其是当采用互动效果时。在这些原因中,辞职和管理层的不合作对公司行为最为不利。JEL代码:G 32;M 42
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引用次数: 0
What Affects Startup Acquisition in Emerging Economy? Evidence from India 新兴经济体中影响初创企业收购的因素?来自印度的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-01-27 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221141787
K. Das
Acquisitions of startup concern investors, cofounders, consumers, and competition watchdogs. With the rapid emergence of the startup ecosystem in India, the phenomenon of startup acquisitions has become noteworthy. In this article, startup exit through acquisition is examined using startup-specific data relating to funding, funding rounds, cofounders, brand name length, and gender of the cofounder. Startup exit is modelled through choice models on a sample of 903 startups. Cox proportional hazard regression was used for the robustness check. The results suggest that venture capital funding increases the probability of acquisition. However, the number of funding rounds reduced the likelihood of acquisition significantly indicating that repeat funding has a positive impact on new venture continuity. There is a trade-off between the quantity and consistency of venture capital funding in affecting the likelihood of acquisition. The number of cofounders is associated with higher acquisition likelihood, and the brand name length had a negative impact on the probability of acquisition. Furthermore, there is a lower acquisition likelihood if the startup had a female cofounder. The findings bear implications for the quality of fundraising, startup team formation, branding, and women entrepreneurship. JEL Codes: G24, G34
初创公司的收购涉及投资者、联合创始人、消费者和竞争监管机构。随着印度创业生态系统的迅速崛起,创业公司的收购现象已经成为值得关注的问题。在本文中,通过与融资、融资轮次、联合创始人、品牌长度和联合创始人性别相关的初创公司特定数据,研究了初创公司通过收购退出的情况。以903家创业公司为样本,通过选择模型对创业公司退出进行建模。采用Cox比例风险回归进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明,风险投资增加了企业并购的可能性。然而,融资轮次大大降低了收购的可能性,这表明重复融资对新创企业的连续性有积极影响。在影响收购可能性方面,风险资本融资的数量和一致性之间存在权衡。联合创始人的数量与较高的收购可能性相关,品牌名称长度对收购可能性有负向影响。此外,如果创业公司有一位女性联合创始人,那么被收购的可能性就会降低。研究结果对融资质量、创业团队组建、品牌推广和女性创业都有影响。JEL代码:G24, G34
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引用次数: 1
What Explains Excess Liquidity of Banks? Empirical Evidence from India 银行流动性过剩的原因是什么?来自印度的经验证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-07-22 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221101134
Md Gyasuddin Ansari, Rudra Sensarma
We study excess liquidity in the banking system using data for India during 2005–2020. We apply Autoregressive Distributed Lag model and panel regressions to identify the factors determining excess liquidity at both aggregate and bank levels. We find that required reserves, private sector credit, and government securities held by banks have negative, positive, and negative effects on excess liquidity, respectively. Other factors such as exchange rate and inter-bank call rate have varying effects at the two levels. Our results suggest that banks can chalk out mechanisms to optimize their liquidity management and avoid the cost of excess liquidity. JEL Classifications: C23, E50, E58, G00, G21
我们使用印度2005-2020年的数据研究了银行系统的过度流动性。我们应用自回归分布滞后模型和面板回归来识别决定总水平和银行水平流动性过剩的因素。我们发现,银行持有的法定准备金、私营部门信贷和政府证券分别对超额流动性产生负面、正面和负面影响。汇率和银行间同业拆借利率等其他因素在这两个层面上有不同的影响。我们的研究结果表明,银行可以制定机制来优化其流动性管理,避免流动性过剩的成本。JEL分类:C23、E50、E58、G00、G21
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引用次数: 1
The Decision to Go Public and Business Group Affiliation: Evidence from India 上市决定与商业集团关联:来自印度的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221102391
C. Sekhar, P. J. Lukose
Using a comprehensive sample of Indian stock market listings from 2000 to 2014, we examine the effect of business group (BG) affiliation on the decision to go public. Supporting the internal capital markets hypothesis, we find that BG firms are less likely to go for initial public offerings (IPOs). Compared to stand-alone firms, BG firms that go public are older and less profitable. Further, this article elucidates the dynamics of the decision to go public within BGs (with multiple unlisted eligible affiliates in their portfolio) as extant models fail to explain the same adequately. We examine the relative importance of reputation, capital raising, and control considerations on the decision to go public. We find that the affiliate that invests in other group affiliates’ financial assets is more likely to be taken public. Affiliates that are net receivers of intragroup support are less likely to list. BG’s reputation has a positive impact on the choice of the affiliate to list. JEL Classifications: G30, G32
使用2000年至2014年印度股市上市的综合样本,我们检验了企业集团(BG)的隶属关系对上市决定的影响。支持内部资本市场假说,我们发现英国天然气公司不太可能进行首次公开募股。与独立公司相比,上市的BG公司更老,利润也更低。此外,本文阐述了在BG内部上市的决定动态(其投资组合中有多家非上市合格附属公司),因为现有的模型未能充分解释这一点。我们考察了声誉、资本筹集和控制因素对上市决策的相对重要性。我们发现,投资于其他集团附属公司金融资产的附属公司更有可能被公开。作为集团内部支持净接受者的附属公司不太可能上市。BG的声誉对选择上市关联公司有积极影响。JEL分类:G30、G32
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引用次数: 2
Return and Volatility Spillover Effects between Rupee–Dollar Exchange Rate and Asian Stock Indices 卢比-美元汇率与亚洲股指之间的回报和波动溢出效应
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-05-30 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221100467
S. Mahalakshmi, S. Thiyagarajan, Gopala K. Vasudevan, G. Naresh
India is a major Asian economy that has attracted global investment due to its economic stability and relatively open financial markets. We investigate the return and volatility spillover effects between the Indian rupee against US dollar and stock index volatility in neighboring (Asian) nations. Consistent with the uncovered equity parity, we find that when the rupee depreciates against US dollar, the foreign institutional investors pull back their portfolio investments from other Asian markets and invest in Indian stock market, similarly if rupee appreciates they may divest their investments to gain profits. The unidirectional causality from the exchange rate to all stock indices is indicated by the causality in the mean approach. Our study shows a strong linkage between the currency value of a stable economy and the economies with which it has strong trade ties. Further, the results also show that investors adjust their position in the related markets during periods of currency appreciation and depreciation in an economy with significant growth prospects. JEL Codes: F31, D53, B23
印度是亚洲主要经济体,经济稳定,金融市场相对开放,吸引了全球投资。我们研究了印度卢比兑美元汇率与邻国(亚洲)股指波动之间的回报和波动溢出效应。与未发现的股权平价一致,我们发现当卢比对美元贬值时,外国机构投资者从其他亚洲市场撤回其证券投资并投资于印度股市,同样,如果卢比升值,他们可能会撤资以获得利润。从汇率到所有股票指数的单向因果关系用平均方法中的因果关系表示。我们的研究表明,一个稳定经济体的货币价值与其贸易关系密切的经济体之间存在很强的联系。此外,研究结果还表明,在具有显著增长前景的经济体中,投资者会在货币升值和贬值期间调整其在相关市场的头寸。JEL代码:F31, D53, B23
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引用次数: 2
Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Poverty in Africa 非洲的中央银行独立性、通货膨胀与贫困
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221078434
A. Gyeke-dako, E. Agbloyor, A. Agoba, F. Turkson, E. Abbey
This article discusses the extent to which central bank independence (CBI) can be used to mitigate the regressive nature of inflation. Using 44 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from the period 1970–2012, the article first examines whether CBI has any influence on inflation by distinguishing between legal independence and governor turnover rates. The evidence shows that CBI helps control inflation, and that inflation generally reduces poverty, and this effect is even stronger, in an environment of low CBI. JEL Codes: E02, E58, E31, I32
本文讨论了央行独立性在多大程度上可以用来缓解通货膨胀的回归性质。本文利用1970-2012年期间的44个撒哈拉以南非洲国家,通过区分法律独立性和州长更替率,首先考察了CBI是否对通货膨胀有任何影响。证据表明,CBI有助于控制通货膨胀,通货膨胀通常会减少贫困,在低CBI的环境中,这种影响甚至更强。JEL代码:E02、E58、E31、I32
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引用次数: 3
Economic Policy Uncertainty Versus Sector Volatility: Evidence from India Using Multi-scale Wavelet Granger Causality Analysis 经济政策不确定性与部门波动性:来自印度的多尺度小波Granger因果分析证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221078352
Vamsidhar Ambatipudi, Dilip Kumar
The present study examines the relationship between Indian economic policy uncertainty (IEPU) and the different sector volatilities (SVs) of the Indian economy over the period 2006–2021. The relationship is studied using a multi-scale correlation framework, combining wavelet coherence analysis with the Granger causality test. The findings indicate a stronger relationship between the IEPU and SV for all sectors during COVID-19, primarily in the medium term. While IEPU led to SV during the global financial crisis (GFC), the SVs led to the IEPU during the COVID-19. However, the Granger causality test provides evidence that, in the long term, the SVs cause the IEPU while the IEPU leads to SV in the short term. The IT sector is crucial as its volatility leads to IEPU across all scales. These results have substantial implications for policymakers and portfolio managers. JEL Codes: G10, G17, G32
本研究考察了印度经济政策不确定性(IEPU)与2006-2021年期间印度经济不同部门波动性(SV)之间的关系。将小波相干分析与Granger因果关系检验相结合,使用多尺度相关框架研究了这种关系。研究结果表明,在新冠肺炎期间,IEPU和SV之间的关系在所有部门都更强,主要是在中期。虽然IEPU在全球金融危机(GFC)期间导致了SV,但SV在新冠肺炎期间导致了IEPU。然而,Granger因果关系检验提供的证据表明,从长期来看,SV导致IEPU,而IEPU在短期内导致SV。IT行业至关重要,因为其波动性导致了所有规模的IEPU。这些结果对政策制定者和投资组合经理具有重大意义。JEL代码:G10、G17、G32
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引用次数: 2
Characterizing the Over-indebted: An Event History Analysis of Financial Diaries 过度负债的特征:财务日记的事件历史分析
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221079957
Sachit Rao, N. Parthasarathy
Low-income households (HHs) face vagaries in income and expenses. These often require the HH to borrow and can cause the HH to become over-indebted. Financial Diaries capture information on incomes, expenses, loans, and shocks with fine granularity and at frequent intervals. In this article, such a dataset is analyzed using the event history analysis approach in order to quantify the risk of HHs becoming over-indebted. Over-indebtedness is defined using two rubrics: monthly debt-to-income ratio and sacrifices made by the HH. The results of this analysis may be used by institutions to customize financial instruments based on the characteristics of an HH. JEL Codes: C410, C810, C830
低收入家庭(HHs)面临着变幻莫测的收入和支出。这些通常要求HH借款,并可能导致HH过度负债。财务日记以精细的粒度和频繁的间隔记录有关收入、支出、贷款和冲击的信息。在本文中,使用事件历史分析方法分析这样的数据集,以便量化卫生保健机构过度负债的风险。过度负债是用两个标准来定义的:月债务收入比和HH做出的牺牲。这种分析的结果可以被机构用来根据HH的特征定制金融工具。JEL代码:C410, C810, C830
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引用次数: 0
Does Difference in Environmental Standard Influence India’s Bilateral IIT Flows? Evidence from GMM Results 环境标准的差异会影响印度的双边IIT流量吗?GMM结果的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2022-04-14 DOI: 10.1177/09726527221088412
Sakshi Aggarwal, D. Chakraborty, N. Banik
In the recent past, India has entered into several regional trading agreements (RTAs) with the objective of export promotion, on the one hand, and deepening participation in the global value chains, on the other. The consequent rise in Indian exports had been accompanied by a simultaneous import growth, given the trade preferences for partners through RTAs as well as ongoing unilateral tariff reforms. The rise in simultaneous exports and imports has enhanced the country’s intra-industry trade (IIT) level. Recently, India has engaged in RTA negotiations with several developed countries, which are characterized by more stringent environmental standards. The current analysis attempts to identify factors that influence India’s bilateral aggregate IIT index in a dynamic panel framework. In particular, it attempts to assess whether greater divergence in environmental standards adversely influence India’s IIT patterns. The empirical estimates reveal that India’s IIT is found to be relatively higher with countries that are technologically more advanced and have relatively stringent environmental standards. The observation indicates that India is possibly specializing in relatively low technology-intensive products vis-à-vis its developed trade partners. The analysis concludes that India would be better off by facilitating innovation and adhering to a higher level of environmental standard. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F15, F18
近年来,印度签署了若干区域贸易协定,一方面是为了促进出口,另一方面是为了深化参与全球价值链。由于区域贸易协定对伙伴的贸易优惠以及正在进行的单边关税改革,印度出口随之增加,同时进口也在增加。同时出口和进口的增加提高了该国的产业内贸易水平。最近,印度与几个发达国家进行区域贸易协定谈判,这些国家的特点是环境标准更为严格。当前的分析试图在动态面板框架中确定影响印度双边总IIT指数的因素。特别是,它试图评估环境标准的更大差异是否会对印度的IIT模式产生不利影响。实证估计表明,与技术更先进、环境标准相对严格的国家相比,印度的IIT相对较高。观察结果表明,与-à-vis发达贸易伙伴相比,印度可能专门生产技术密集程度相对较低的产品。分析得出的结论是,促进创新和坚持更高水平的环境标准,印度会变得更好。JEL代码:F13, F14, F15, F18
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引用次数: 4
期刊
Journal of Emerging Market Finance
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