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Do New Brooms Sweep Clean? Evidence that New CEOs Take a ‘Big Bath’ in the Banking Industry 新扫帚扫得干净吗?新首席执行官在银行业“大洗澡”的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2019-03-28 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831543
Chung-Hua Shen, Chien-An Wang
This study investigates whether significant changes exist in providing loan losses and loan charge-offs during turnovers of chief executive officers (CEOs). Providing loan losses is referred to as a ‘big bath in earnings’, and providing loan charge-offs is referred to as a ‘big bath in asset quality’. We classify CEO turnovers into three types, namely, forced and voluntary CEO turnovers in privately owned banks (POB), turnovers in government-owned banks (GOB) and turnovers as outcomes of mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Using findings based on the data of Taiwanese commercial banks, we demonstrate that the forcibly appointed CEOs exhibit big baths in earnings and asset quality, whereas the voluntarily appointed CEOs exhibit a big bath in earnings but not in asset quality. Compared with the CEO turnover in a POB, the appointed CEO in a GOB shows no big bath in either earnings or asset quality. Moreover, turnovers resulting from M&As do not induce big baths. JEL Classification: C23, G21, G28, M41, M48
本研究调查了在首席执行官(CEO)离职期间,提供贷款损失和贷款冲销是否存在重大变化。提供贷款损失被称为“收益大浴”,提供贷款冲销被称为是“资产质量大浴”。我们将CEO离职分为三种类型,即私营银行的强制和自愿CEO离职、国有银行的离职和并购结果的离职。基于台湾商业银行的数据,我们发现强制任命的首席执行官在收益和资产质量方面表现出巨大的差异,而自愿任命的首席首席执行官则表现出收益和资产品质的巨大差异。与POB的CEO更替相比,GOB任命的CEO在收益或资产质量方面都没有大的变化。此外,并购导致的失误并不会带来大的损失。JEL分类:C23、G21、G28、M41、M48
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引用次数: 1
Bond–Equity Yield Ratio Market Timing in Emerging Markets 新兴市场债券-股票收益率市场时机
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2019-03-28 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831536
Nebojsa Dimic, Vitaly Orlov, Janne Äijö
This article investigates the market timing ability of the bond–equity yield ratio (BEYR) from an international investor perspective. Consolidating data on emerging markets, we document no major international evidence that BEYR-based investing strategies, namely extreme values, thresholds and moving averages, provide higher risk-adjusted returns than benchmark buy-and-hold portfolios. However, we develop new augmented BEYR indicators by introducing the notion of US bonds as a safe investment relative to emerging market stocks and bonds. Dynamic strategies based on our augmented BEYR indicators produce significant gains in risk-adjusted returns compared with traditional BEYR and buy-and-hold benchmark strategies. JEL Classifications: G11, G12, G15
本文从国际投资者的角度研究了债券权益收益率(BEYR)的市场时机能力。综合新兴市场的数据,我们没有记录到主要的国际证据表明,基于BEYR的投资策略,即极值、阈值和移动平均线,比基准买入和持有投资组合提供更高的风险调整回报。然而,我们通过引入美国债券作为相对于新兴市场股票和债券的安全投资的概念,开发了新的增强BEYR指标。与传统的BEYR和买入持有基准策略相比,基于我们增强的BEYR指标的动态策略在风险调整回报方面产生了显著的收益。JEL分类:G11、G12、G15
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引用次数: 0
How Underlying Dimensions of Political Risk Affect Excess Return in Emerging and Developed Markets 政治风险的基本维度如何影响新兴和发达市场的超额收益
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2019-03-28 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831540
I. Q. Nesset, Ingrid Bøgeberg, Frode Kjærland, L. Molden
Political risk is expected to increase due to emerging markets’ increasing influence on the world economy. We identify legal, tension, conflict and policy as underlying dimensions through principal component analysis by using a disaggregated political risk index. Using a two-way error correction model, ethnic and religious tension is identified as a new and distinct dimension of political risk. Consequently, global investors are likely to benefit from understanding which dimension implies a reward. Investors in particular should direct their attention towards tension, which seems to command a risk premium regardless of both market and time. JEL Classification: C33, F30, F50, G15
由于新兴市场对世界经济的影响力越来越大,政治风险预计将增加。我们通过使用分类政治风险指数的主成分分析,将法律、紧张局势、冲突和政策确定为潜在层面。使用双向纠错模型,种族和宗教紧张被确定为政治风险的一个新的、独特的维度。因此,全球投资者可能会从理解哪一个维度意味着回报中受益。投资者尤其应该将注意力集中在紧张局势上,无论市场和时间如何,紧张局势似乎都会带来风险溢价。JEL分类:C33、F30、F50、G15
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引用次数: 10
On the Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Demand for Money: Evidence from Emerging Economies 汇率变动对货币需求的非对称效应——来自新兴经济体的证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2019-03-04 DOI: 10.1177/0972652719831523
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Sahar Bahmani, Ali M. Kutan, Dan Xi
Previous studies, that included the exchange rate in the demand for money function to account for currency substitution, assumed that exchange rate changes have symmetric effects on the demand for money in emerging countries. Since assuming symmetric effects implies using a linear model, they were not successful in finding significant link between the exchange rate movements and the demand for money. When we applied a nonlinear model to address the same issue, we found that in most emerging economies in our sample, exchange rate changes do have significant long-run effects on the demand for money and such effects are indeed asymmetric. JEL Classifications: E41, F31
先前的研究将汇率纳入货币需求函数,以解释货币替代,假设汇率变化对新兴国家的货币需求具有对称影响。由于假设对称效应意味着使用线性模型,他们未能成功地找到汇率变动与货币需求之间的重要联系。当我们应用非线性模型来解决同样的问题时,我们发现在我们样本中的大多数新兴经济体中,汇率变化确实对货币需求有显著的长期影响,而且这种影响确实是不对称的。JEL分类:E41、F31
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引用次数: 16
Emergence of Mobile Financial Services in Ghana: Concerns for Use among Informal Sector Women Entrepreneurs 加纳移动金融服务的出现:对非正规部门女企业家使用的关注
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718798191
Raymond K. Dziwornu, Kingsley K. Anagba, A. D. Aniapam
Mobile financial services (MFS) have emerged in recent years as an indispensable tool to promote financial inclusion in emerging economies like Ghana. This article investigated the factors affecting MFS use among 300 women entrepreneurs in the informal sector in Ghana, using multinomial logit model. Knowledge of MFS, trust of services provided, nearness to agents and privacy of information are more likely to drive MFS use. In addition to embarking on aggressive radio and television advertisement, service operators should deploy more agents and invest in reliable infrastructure to build users’ trust to increase MFS use. JEL Classification: D12, G20
近年来,移动金融服务(MFS)已成为加纳等新兴经济体促进普惠金融不可或缺的工具。本文采用多项逻辑模型对加纳300名非正规部门女企业家使用小额信贷的影响因素进行了调查。对MFS的了解、对所提供服务的信任、与代理的接近程度以及信息的私密性更有可能推动MFS的使用。除了积极开展广播电视广告外,服务运营商还应部署更多的代理商,并投资于可靠的基础设施,以建立用户的信任,从而增加MFS的使用。JEL分类:D12、G20
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引用次数: 4
The Impact of the Hai Yang Shi You 981 Event on Vietnam’s Stock Markets 海洋石油981事件对越南股市的影响
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-11-08 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718798215
Thai‐Ha Le, Donghyun Park, C. Tran, B. Tran-Nam
This study examines the extent to which the Hai Yang Shi You 981 (HD-981) event, the sudden deployment of a Chinese oil rig in disputed territorial waters near Paracel Islands in May 2014, affected the stock market performance of 20 sectors of the Vietnamese economy. The impact was measured in terms of stock returns, using daily data on stock market indices. The results strongly indicate that the HD-981 event significantly and negatively affected the overall performance of Vietnam’s stock markets. There is, however, considerable variation across sectors. While most sectors which are heavily dependent on the economy of China were adversely affected, the impact on some sectors was negligible. By conducting this study on Vietnam’s stock markets, we hope to generate implications and lessons for other emerging markets in the region. JEL Classification: G1, G14, C58
本研究考察了2014年5月在帕拉塞尔群岛附近有争议的领海突然部署中国石油钻井平台的海洋石油981(HD-981)事件对越南经济20个部门股市表现的影响程度。这种影响是根据股票回报率来衡量的,使用的是股票市场指数的每日数据。结果有力地表明,HD-981事件对越南股市的整体表现产生了重大负面影响。然而,各部门之间存在相当大的差异。虽然大多数严重依赖中国经济的部门都受到了不利影响,但对一些部门的影响微乎其微。通过对越南股市进行这项研究,我们希望为该地区其他新兴市场带来启示和教训。JEL分类:G1、G14、C58
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引用次数: 2
Linkages Between the Foreign Exchange Markets of BRIC Countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—and the USA 金砖四国——巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国——与美国外汇市场的联系
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-10-25 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718800081
R. Aroul, Peggy E. Swanson
The past decade has witnessed increasing trade and capital flow movements between BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and the USA indicating a need for a better understanding of currency linkages between these countries. This article examines long-run and short-run relationships between foreign exchange markets of BRIC countries and the USA. Long-run results indicate that, over a period beginning January 2000 and ending November 2013, the currency markets of China, India and the USA are tied together, implying that from the perspective of the US investor, the markets of Brazil and Russia provide the greater diversification benefits. Further, the USA is found to be the source of the common trend (CT), suggesting that it leads the three (cointegrated) markets towards the long-run equilibrium relationships. Brazil and India share no short-run lead-lag relationship with the USA. JEL Classification: F31, G15
过去十年,金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)与美国之间的贸易和资本流动不断增加,这表明需要更好地了解这些国家之间的货币联系。本文考察了金砖四国与美国外汇市场之间的长期和短期关系。长期结果表明,从2000年1月到2013年11月,中国、印度和美国的货币市场是紧密相连的,这意味着从美国投资者的角度来看,巴西和俄罗斯市场提供了更大的多元化优势。此外,美国被发现是共同趋势(CT)的来源,这表明它引导三个(协整)市场走向长期均衡关系。巴西和印度与美国没有短期的领先-滞后关系。JEL分类:F31,G15
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引用次数: 6
Volatility Dynamics in the ASEAN– China Free Trade Agreement 中国—东盟自由贸易协定的波动动态
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-10-21 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718797812
J. Diaz
This study used three multivariate general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models to analyze the volatility dynamics in the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement. Results indicated the presence of long-run persistence, wherein shocks in China’s stock market affect other ASEAN stock indices in the long term. Further tests revealed the presence of time-varying correlations, suggesting dynamic models, such as the dynamic conditional correlations model, are appropriate. The Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner model determined that the conditional covariances of the Chinese and ASEAN indices are functions of their lagged covariances, further proving that China’s stock volatilities impact the volatilities of ASEAN counterparts. JEL Classification: C58, G15
本研究采用三个多元广义自回归条件异方差模型分析了东盟-中国自由贸易协定的波动动态。结果表明,中国股市存在长期持续性,其中中国股市的冲击会长期影响东盟其他股指。进一步的测试揭示了时变相关性的存在,表明动态模型,如动态条件相关性模型是合适的。Baba、Engle、Kraft和Kroner模型确定了中国和东盟指数的条件协变量是其滞后协变量的函数,进一步证明了中国股票的波动性影响东盟指数的波动性。JEL分类:C58、G15
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引用次数: 0
Stochastic Volatility in the Peruvian Stock Market and Exchange Rate Returns: A Bayesian Approximation 秘鲁股市的随机波动性与汇率回报率:贝叶斯近似
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-10-10 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718800560
Willy Alanya, G. Rodríguez
This study is one of the first to utilize the stochastic volatility (SV) model to modelling the Peruvian financial times series. We estimate and compare this model with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models with normal and t-student errors. The analysis in this study corresponds to Peru’s stock market and exchange rate returns. The importance of this methodology is that the adjustment of the data is better than the GARCH models, using the assumptions of normality in both models. In the case of the SV model, three Bayesian algorithms have been employed where we evaluate their respective inefficiencies in the estimation of the model’s parameters—the most efficient being the integration sampler. The estimated parameters in the SV model under the various algorithms are consistent, as they display little inefficiency. The figures of the correlations of the iterations suggest that there are no problems at the time of Markov chaining in all estimations. We find that the volatilities in the exchange rate and stock market volatilities follow similar patterns over time. That is, when economic turbulence caused by the economic circumstances occurred, for example, the Asian crisis and the recent crisis in the USA, considerable volatility was generated in both markets. JEL Classification: C22
本研究是首次利用随机波动率(SV)模型对秘鲁金融时报系列进行建模的研究之一。我们估计并比较了该模型与具有正态和t-研究误差的广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型。本研究中的分析与秘鲁的股票市场和汇率回报率相对应。该方法的重要性在于,使用两个模型中的正态性假设,数据的调整比GARCH模型更好。在SV模型的情况下,我们使用了三种贝叶斯算法来评估它们在估计模型参数方面的效率,其中最有效的是积分采样器。在各种算法下,SV模型中的估计参数是一致的,因为它们几乎没有效率。迭代的相关性图表明,在所有估计中,在马尔可夫链时都不存在问题。我们发现,随着时间的推移,汇率的波动性和股市的波动性遵循相似的模式。也就是说,当经济环境引起的经济动荡发生时,例如亚洲危机和美国最近的危机,这两个市场都产生了相当大的波动。JEL分类:C22
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引用次数: 6
The Post-issue Market Performance of Initial Public Offerings: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Stock Markets 首次公开发行的发行后市场表现:来自马来西亚股票市场的经验证据
IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2018-10-10 DOI: 10.1177/0972652718798188
Nurwahida Yaakub, Mohamed Sherif, R. Haniffa
This study examines the long-run performance of the initial public offerings (IPOs) listed in the Malaysian main and alternative ‘Access, Certainty and Efficiency’ (ACE) markets at the economic and sectorial levels. Using event- and calendar-time study methods and monthly data from January 2000 to December 2011, we provide novel evidence on the existence of under performance anomaly in the Malaysian markets and more intensely in the ACE markets. We demonstrate robust evidence on the distinction in sector-specific characteristics from the aggregate market characteristics. While the consumer products and industrial sectors dominate the overall underperformance, the construction, property and technology sectors significantly overperform. The findings are robust to a wide range of other sensitivity checks including parametric and non-parametric tests. JEL Classification: G14, G15, G30, G34, G32, G38
本研究考察了在马来西亚主要和替代“准入、确定性和效率”(ACE)市场上市的首次公开募股(IPO)在经济和部门层面的长期表现。利用事件和日历时间研究方法以及2000年1月至2011年12月的月度数据,我们为马来西亚市场以及ACE市场存在业绩不足异常提供了新的证据。我们证明了行业特定特征与总市场特征的区别。虽然消费品和工业部门在整体表现不佳中占主导地位,但建筑、房地产和科技部门的表现明显过剩。这些发现对包括参数和非参数测试在内的广泛的其他灵敏度检查是稳健的。JEL分类:G14、G15、G30、G34、G32、G38
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Journal of Emerging Market Finance
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