Pub Date : 2022-01-21DOI: 10.1177/09726527211069610
R. K. Bairagi
This study empirically investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of five countries from four continents on the Australian stock market with monthly observations from January 1998 to January 2021. The dynamic linkage model reports that EPUs are negatively influenced by their own lagged effect along with bidirectional volatility spillover and the returns of stock markets unidirectionally spillover to the EPU of the corresponding economy. The study documents that shocks originated in the Australian stock market spillover negatively onto its own EPU and that of China and positively onto EPUs of Europe and Japan. The shocks originated in EPUs of Australia, Europe, China, and Japan significantly negatively impact the Australian stock market. The bidirectional volatilities of EPUs can offer insight for portfolio investors in searching the possible hedging opportunities in Australia. The reported drivers of Australian EPU can be incorporated in formulating and implementing the EPU-sensitive Australian trade policies. JEL: G15, G17, G18
{"title":"Dynamic Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Australian Stock Market: An Intercontinental Evidence","authors":"R. K. Bairagi","doi":"10.1177/09726527211069610","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211069610","url":null,"abstract":"This study empirically investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of five countries from four continents on the Australian stock market with monthly observations from January 1998 to January 2021. The dynamic linkage model reports that EPUs are negatively influenced by their own lagged effect along with bidirectional volatility spillover and the returns of stock markets unidirectionally spillover to the EPU of the corresponding economy. The study documents that shocks originated in the Australian stock market spillover negatively onto its own EPU and that of China and positively onto EPUs of Europe and Japan. The shocks originated in EPUs of Australia, Europe, China, and Japan significantly negatively impact the Australian stock market. The bidirectional volatilities of EPUs can offer insight for portfolio investors in searching the possible hedging opportunities in Australia. The reported drivers of Australian EPU can be incorporated in formulating and implementing the EPU-sensitive Australian trade policies. JEL: G15, G17, G18","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"64 - 91"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47571919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-10DOI: 10.1177/09726527211044056
A. Goyal, Prashant Parab
We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on inflation expectations of professional forecasters and draw out implications for policy. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation under information rigidities, we get a large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters’ expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises, and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter-horizon forecasts and after adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and repo rate also significantly influence inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact after October 2016, when the monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58
{"title":"Central Bank Communications and Professional Forecasts: Evidence From India","authors":"A. Goyal, Prashant Parab","doi":"10.1177/09726527211044056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211044056","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the influence of qualitative and quantitative communications of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on inflation expectations of professional forecasters and draw out implications for policy. Estimating Carroll-type epidemiological models of expectation formation under information rigidities, we get a large speed of adjustment of professional forecasters’ expectations. Analysis of the determinants of inflation forecasts, inflation surprises, and forecaster disagreement reveals significant influence of quantitative RBI communications in the form of inflation projections. This effect is prominent for shorter-horizon forecasts and after adoption of flexible inflation targeting. Macroeconomic fundamentals like lagged inflation and repo rate also significantly influence inflation forecasts. Choice of words in the RBI monetary policy statements has more impact after October 2016, when the monetary policy committee became the decision-making body. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"308 - 336"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47171095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-29DOI: 10.1177/09726527211045759
Abayomi Oredegbe
This study examines banking industry stability in BRICS and G7 from the period 2005 to 2014. The results show that stability level in a prior period affects stability in the subsequent period. Also, the study reveals that competition improves stability, which validates the competition-stability proposition. Economic growth enhances stability in BRICS but not in G7. Inefficiency weakens stability in BRICS; however, its impact in G7 is insignificant. Profitability, capitalization, and inflation enhance stability in G7; however, they show no meaningful impacts in BRICS. These findings contribute to literature and policy discussion on banking industry stability JEL Codes: G21, G28, G32, L11
{"title":"Competition and Banking Industry Stability: How Do BRICS and G7 Compare?","authors":"Abayomi Oredegbe","doi":"10.1177/09726527211045759","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211045759","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines banking industry stability in BRICS and G7 from the period 2005 to 2014. The results show that stability level in a prior period affects stability in the subsequent period. Also, the study reveals that competition improves stability, which validates the competition-stability proposition. Economic growth enhances stability in BRICS but not in G7. Inefficiency weakens stability in BRICS; however, its impact in G7 is insignificant. Profitability, capitalization, and inflation enhance stability in G7; however, they show no meaningful impacts in BRICS. These findings contribute to literature and policy discussion on banking industry stability JEL Codes: G21, G28, G32, L11","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"21 1","pages":"7 - 31"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47478963","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1177/09726527211043013
George Varghese, V. Madhavan
We model the first and second moments of global crude oil benchmarks, using iterative pre-whitened generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and, in doing so, validate the efficacy of such models in assimilating the neglected nonlinearities in the underlying data-generating processes. The benchmarks considered for this study are Brent, Dubai/Oman, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. While nonlinear serial dependence happens to be a stylized fact across different asset classes, it is our view that prior scholarly contributions have not adequately untangled the effect of data aggregation (in time) in the examination of nonlinear dependencies. In this context, the present study strives to untangle the critical role that time aggregation plays in the examination of nonlinearity in global crude oil benchmarks using data at daily, weekly as well as monthly time frequencies. Our findings are as follows: the optimum GARCH models perform well in capturing all of the neglected nonlinearity in monthly returns of the crude benchmarks. When it comes to daily and weekly returns, our study reveals traces of neglected nonlinearities that are not completely captured by GARCH models. Moreover, such residual traces of neglected nonlinear dependencies are relatively more pronounced at the granular levels and become more and more elusory as the data get aggregated in time. JEL Codes: C22, C53, C58, G1, Q47
{"title":"Nonlinearity in Global Crude Oil Benchmarks: Disentangling the Effect of Time Aggregation","authors":"George Varghese, V. Madhavan","doi":"10.1177/09726527211043013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211043013","url":null,"abstract":"We model the first and second moments of global crude oil benchmarks, using iterative pre-whitened generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and, in doing so, validate the efficacy of such models in assimilating the neglected nonlinearities in the underlying data-generating processes. The benchmarks considered for this study are Brent, Dubai/Oman, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. While nonlinear serial dependence happens to be a stylized fact across different asset classes, it is our view that prior scholarly contributions have not adequately untangled the effect of data aggregation (in time) in the examination of nonlinear dependencies. In this context, the present study strives to untangle the critical role that time aggregation plays in the examination of nonlinearity in global crude oil benchmarks using data at daily, weekly as well as monthly time frequencies. Our findings are as follows: the optimum GARCH models perform well in capturing all of the neglected nonlinearity in monthly returns of the crude benchmarks. When it comes to daily and weekly returns, our study reveals traces of neglected nonlinearities that are not completely captured by GARCH models. Moreover, such residual traces of neglected nonlinear dependencies are relatively more pronounced at the granular levels and become more and more elusory as the data get aggregated in time. JEL Codes: C22, C53, C58, G1, Q47","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"290 - 307"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46212879","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-12DOI: 10.1177/09726527211022900
Poonam Dugar, R. Basant
This article is a maiden attempt at exploring determinants of stage-specific investment choices of Indian venture capital and private equity (VCPE) firms. Analysis of 5,782 VCPE investment deals during 1998–2016 shows that firms’ preferences to invest in various stages (early vs. late) are significantly affected by the characteristics of the VCPE firms, features of the deal, and characteristics of the investee firms. More specifically, experience and ownership (foreign vs. domestic) of VCPE firm, type of deal (syndicated or otherwise), investment size of the deal, and location and industry of the investee firm influence the stage of investment. Detailed empirical analysis shows that younger VCPE firms and those with domestic investors prefer to invest in early stages, presumably because they wish to build a reputation and also leverage their proximity with investee firms to manage high market and technological risks associated with early-stage investments. Syndication is another mechanism used to manage the risks associated with early-stage deals. Investee firms in industries that have lower investment requirements or shorter gestation periods and those located in regions with a mature entrepreneurial ecosystems are more likely to attract early-stage investments. JEL Classification: G24, L26, D81
{"title":"Antecedents of Stage-wise Investment Preferences of Venture Capital and Private Equity Firms in India: An Empirical Exploration","authors":"Poonam Dugar, R. Basant","doi":"10.1177/09726527211022900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211022900","url":null,"abstract":"This article is a maiden attempt at exploring determinants of stage-specific investment choices of Indian venture capital and private equity (VCPE) firms. Analysis of 5,782 VCPE investment deals during 1998–2016 shows that firms’ preferences to invest in various stages (early vs. late) are significantly affected by the characteristics of the VCPE firms, features of the deal, and characteristics of the investee firms. More specifically, experience and ownership (foreign vs. domestic) of VCPE firm, type of deal (syndicated or otherwise), investment size of the deal, and location and industry of the investee firm influence the stage of investment. Detailed empirical analysis shows that younger VCPE firms and those with domestic investors prefer to invest in early stages, presumably because they wish to build a reputation and also leverage their proximity with investee firms to manage high market and technological risks associated with early-stage investments. Syndication is another mechanism used to manage the risks associated with early-stage deals. Investee firms in industries that have lower investment requirements or shorter gestation periods and those located in regions with a mature entrepreneurial ecosystems are more likely to attract early-stage investments. JEL Classification: G24, L26, D81","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"264 - 289"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/09726527211022900","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44082672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-19DOI: 10.1177/09726527211015317
L. Chu
This article examines the impact of institutional, financial, and economic development on firms’ access to finance in Latin America and Caribbean region. Based on firm- and country-level data from the World Bank databases, we employ an ordered logit model to understand the direct and moderating role of institutional, financial, and economic development in determining firms’ financial obstacles. The results show that older, larger, facing less competition and regulation burden, foreign owned, and affiliated firms report lower obstacles to finance. Second, better macro-fundamentals help to lessen the level of obstacles substantially. Third, the role of institutions in promoting firms’ inclusive finance is quite different to the role of financial development and economic growth. JEL Classification: E02; G10; O16; P48
{"title":"Financial Access of Latin America and Caribbean Firms: What Are the Roles of Institutional, Financial, and Economic Development?","authors":"L. Chu","doi":"10.1177/09726527211015317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09726527211015317","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of institutional, financial, and economic development on firms’ access to finance in Latin America and Caribbean region. Based on firm- and country-level data from the World Bank databases, we employ an ordered logit model to understand the direct and moderating role of institutional, financial, and economic development in determining firms’ financial obstacles. The results show that older, larger, facing less competition and regulation burden, foreign owned, and affiliated firms report lower obstacles to finance. Second, better macro-fundamentals help to lessen the level of obstacles substantially. Third, the role of institutions in promoting firms’ inclusive finance is quite different to the role of financial development and economic growth. JEL Classification: E02; G10; O16; P48","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"227 - 263"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/09726527211015317","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45375698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-21DOI: 10.1177/0972652720969511
Nilesh Gupta, Joshy Jacob
Investors with lottery preferences are known to concentrate on stocks with rare but extreme past returns. We investigate the extent to which lottery preference, measured by the MAX variable, varies with the market-wide irrational sentiment. We find that the high-MAX stocks have higher overpricing in a high-sentiment market and earn a lower alpha, compared to the low-sentiment market. Accordingly, the poor returns earned by a long-short portfolio of stocks with extreme MAX values are primarily due to the overvaluation of the high MAX-portfolio during the high sentiment phase. The higher stock volatility in India also magnifies the lottery preference of investors. JEL Classification: G4, G12, G41, G11
{"title":"The Interplay Between Sentiment and MAX: Evidence from an Emerging Market","authors":"Nilesh Gupta, Joshy Jacob","doi":"10.1177/0972652720969511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652720969511","url":null,"abstract":"Investors with lottery preferences are known to concentrate on stocks with rare but extreme past returns. We investigate the extent to which lottery preference, measured by the MAX variable, varies with the market-wide irrational sentiment. We find that the high-MAX stocks have higher overpricing in a high-sentiment market and earn a lower alpha, compared to the low-sentiment market. Accordingly, the poor returns earned by a long-short portfolio of stocks with extreme MAX values are primarily due to the overvaluation of the high MAX-portfolio during the high sentiment phase. The higher stock volatility in India also magnifies the lottery preference of investors. JEL Classification: G4, G12, G41, G11","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"106 2","pages":"192 - 217"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2021-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652720969511","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41301973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-14DOI: 10.1177/0972652720923544
Zhi Dong, T. Sing
There are limitations in the understandings of investors’ overreaction to the volatility in less transparent industrial sectors. Investors investing in a less transparent sector are likely to over-interpret available market information. This article compares investors’ reaction to market shocks across different industrial sectors, through analyzing the information content in implied volatility using financial derivatives of individual companies in Singapore. Investors in the less transparent property and financial service sector are found to overreact on market shocks, further destabilizing the market. The findings imply that regulatory measures that increase the level of transparency could aid the stabilization of markets. JEL Classification: G13, G14, G18
{"title":"Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?","authors":"Zhi Dong, T. Sing","doi":"10.1177/0972652720923544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652720923544","url":null,"abstract":"There are limitations in the understandings of investors’ overreaction to the volatility in less transparent industrial sectors. Investors investing in a less transparent sector are likely to over-interpret available market information. This article compares investors’ reaction to market shocks across different industrial sectors, through analyzing the information content in implied volatility using financial derivatives of individual companies in Singapore. Investors in the less transparent property and financial service sector are found to overreact on market shocks, further destabilizing the market. The findings imply that regulatory measures that increase the level of transparency could aid the stabilization of markets. JEL Classification: G13, G14, G18","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"79 - 123"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652720923544","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45276832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-13DOI: 10.1177/0972652720969519
N. Asmuni, K. S. Tan
This article aims to shed light on the differences in yield rate between conventional bond and sukuk in the Malaysian market. We find that the historical yield rates for the government-issued sukuk is significantly higher than the conventional bond. Conversely, there is a slight yield spread discount between the corporate-issued sukuk and bonds for all rating classes. We conclude that liquidity factor can mainly explain the positive yield spread on the government-issued sukuk. We also illustrate the effect of tax and expenses on asset pricing, which may contribute to the yield spread discount for corporate issuance. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13
{"title":"Exploring the Yield Spread Between Sukuk and Conventional Bonds in Malaysia","authors":"N. Asmuni, K. S. Tan","doi":"10.1177/0972652720969519","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0972652720969519","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to shed light on the differences in yield rate between conventional bond and sukuk in the Malaysian market. We find that the historical yield rates for the government-issued sukuk is significantly higher than the conventional bond. Conversely, there is a slight yield spread discount between the corporate-issued sukuk and bonds for all rating classes. We conclude that liquidity factor can mainly explain the positive yield spread on the government-issued sukuk. We also illustrate the effect of tax and expenses on asset pricing, which may contribute to the yield spread discount for corporate issuance. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13","PeriodicalId":44100,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Emerging Market Finance","volume":"20 1","pages":"165 - 191"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2020-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1177/0972652720969519","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45882790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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