Abstract The Currency Board in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) uses the euro as a reserve currency in the conditions of a negative nominal interest rate on deposits with the ECB. In this paper, we investigated the impact of negative interest rates on deposits and negative yields on bonds denominated in euro on the general advantages of the currency board and the consequences for the functioning of the currency board in BiH. The impact of negative interest rates was measured by the currency board coverage index (IC). A negative nominal interest rate on the reserve currency creates a negative seigniorage in the country of the currency board, increases the costs of issuing domestic money and reduces the competitiveness of the economy. The monetary policy of the ECB in the conditions of the COVID-19 crisis generates negative influences on the functioning of the currency board. The COVID-19 crisis poses a threat to currency board coverage in BiH. Technically, a currency board can also function in terms of negative interest on the invested reserve currency as long as it can cover the costs of its business.
{"title":"Sustainability of the Currency Board in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Conditions of a Negative Interest Rate on the Reserve Currency","authors":"Rajko Tomaš","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Currency Board in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) uses the euro as a reserve currency in the conditions of a negative nominal interest rate on deposits with the ECB. In this paper, we investigated the impact of negative interest rates on deposits and negative yields on bonds denominated in euro on the general advantages of the currency board and the consequences for the functioning of the currency board in BiH. The impact of negative interest rates was measured by the currency board coverage index (IC). A negative nominal interest rate on the reserve currency creates a negative seigniorage in the country of the currency board, increases the costs of issuing domestic money and reduces the competitiveness of the economy. The monetary policy of the ECB in the conditions of the COVID-19 crisis generates negative influences on the functioning of the currency board. The COVID-19 crisis poses a threat to currency board coverage in BiH. Technically, a currency board can also function in terms of negative interest on the invested reserve currency as long as it can cover the costs of its business.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47952006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The objective of this research is to examine the inter-bank network of clients as a channel for credit risk transmission by groups of banks in Serbia characterized by different levels of credit risk (clusters). Two of the four observed groups of banks have experienced increase in NPLs through the channel of contagion spread in the interbank network. The spread of the infection through the banking network is a consequence of the impact of the economic connection among clients. The third group of banks (banks with high levels of credit risk) takes over the effects of systemic factors and transfers their influence to the second and the first group (banks with average and below-average credit risk level) through the banking network channel. There were different models of bank behaviour, from a group of banks that fully aligned their risk taking with risk capacity to a group of banks that exhibited an excessive risk propensity far beyond their own risk-taking capacity. There is also the confirmation that moral hazard was an important determinant of credit risk and an additional impulse to spread credit contagion.
{"title":"Interbank Network as a Channel of Credit Contagion in Banks: Is Moral Hazard Transferable?","authors":"Zeljko Jovic, Milena Lutovac Đaković","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0026","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The objective of this research is to examine the inter-bank network of clients as a channel for credit risk transmission by groups of banks in Serbia characterized by different levels of credit risk (clusters). Two of the four observed groups of banks have experienced increase in NPLs through the channel of contagion spread in the interbank network. The spread of the infection through the banking network is a consequence of the impact of the economic connection among clients. The third group of banks (banks with high levels of credit risk) takes over the effects of systemic factors and transfers their influence to the second and the first group (banks with average and below-average credit risk level) through the banking network channel. There were different models of bank behaviour, from a group of banks that fully aligned their risk taking with risk capacity to a group of banks that exhibited an excessive risk propensity far beyond their own risk-taking capacity. There is also the confirmation that moral hazard was an important determinant of credit risk and an additional impulse to spread credit contagion.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48215544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Faced with COVID-19 crisis, central banks have once again become one of the key players in the economies. The aim of this article is to analyse the actions of Central and Eastern European central banks within all their roles (monetary policy, micro-and macroprudential policy, deposit guaranteeing and resolution) during the first coronavirus wave. The analysis shows that they were active in various fields, not only those that were traditionally always assigned to central banks (i.e. monetary policy, although this was the major field of activity). Scope of the intervention naturally depended on the shape of the national financial safety net. At the same time, the use of monetary policy tools depended on the adopted monetary policy strategy. Practice of central banks’ actions shows that central banks with a wide range of monetary tools reacted later. It seems that the scope and intensity of the use of monetary policy tools was not influenced by the general role of the central bank in the financial safety net. The monetary toolkit used by banks was based on a standard set of instruments with modified conditions of application (scale, transaction parameters and their type, collaterals and counterparties). Although transactions with specific parameters were sometimes implemented for the first time, they can still be included in the framework of classic monetary policy tools. In areas other than monetary policy, central banks were much less active. The most disturbing seems to be the passivity in the field of macroprudential policy.
{"title":"CEE EU Central Banks’ Policy during the First Wave of COVID-19","authors":"M. Kozińska","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Faced with COVID-19 crisis, central banks have once again become one of the key players in the economies. The aim of this article is to analyse the actions of Central and Eastern European central banks within all their roles (monetary policy, micro-and macroprudential policy, deposit guaranteeing and resolution) during the first coronavirus wave. The analysis shows that they were active in various fields, not only those that were traditionally always assigned to central banks (i.e. monetary policy, although this was the major field of activity). Scope of the intervention naturally depended on the shape of the national financial safety net. At the same time, the use of monetary policy tools depended on the adopted monetary policy strategy. Practice of central banks’ actions shows that central banks with a wide range of monetary tools reacted later. It seems that the scope and intensity of the use of monetary policy tools was not influenced by the general role of the central bank in the financial safety net. The monetary toolkit used by banks was based on a standard set of instruments with modified conditions of application (scale, transaction parameters and their type, collaterals and counterparties). Although transactions with specific parameters were sometimes implemented for the first time, they can still be included in the framework of classic monetary policy tools. In areas other than monetary policy, central banks were much less active. The most disturbing seems to be the passivity in the field of macroprudential policy.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45832886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Communication has become a vital part of modern monetary policy, and its importance is even higher during a crisis when a central bank has to calm the markets down. This paper studies the information content of different styles of communication from individual central bank policymakers in the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve during a period of very high economic uncertainty, and whether it differs depending on the role or position of the speaker. The findings suggest that during the financial crisis there was a large variance in the information content of different policymakers and styles of communication.
{"title":"Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers","authors":"Jonne Lehtimäki, Marianne Palmu","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Communication has become a vital part of modern monetary policy, and its importance is even higher during a crisis when a central bank has to calm the markets down. This paper studies the information content of different styles of communication from individual central bank policymakers in the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve during a period of very high economic uncertainty, and whether it differs depending on the role or position of the speaker. The findings suggest that during the financial crisis there was a large variance in the information content of different policymakers and styles of communication.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48065944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Computerization of social life enabled market participants to search for new forms of electronic payments. The share of cash in total payments is systematically decreasing, which poses the risk of being supplanted by other instruments, including cryptocurrencies. Central banks, therefore, faced the challenge of adjusting their issuing activities to the current social and market conditions, which resulted in the emergence of the concept and discussion of the introduction of digital cash. The purpose of this paper is to examine the abovementioned issues and indication of potential scenarios for the introduction of central bank digital currency with an indication of potential consequences for the banking sector. The thesis of this paper is the following statement: The emergence of digital money of the central bank may significantly change the nature of commercial banks’ activities - including potentially eliminating their role in issuing cashless money.
{"title":"Central Bank Digital Currency: Scenarios of Implementation and Potential Consequences for Monetary System","authors":"Patryk Kaczmarek","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Computerization of social life enabled market participants to search for new forms of electronic payments. The share of cash in total payments is systematically decreasing, which poses the risk of being supplanted by other instruments, including cryptocurrencies. Central banks, therefore, faced the challenge of adjusting their issuing activities to the current social and market conditions, which resulted in the emergence of the concept and discussion of the introduction of digital cash. The purpose of this paper is to examine the abovementioned issues and indication of potential scenarios for the introduction of central bank digital currency with an indication of potential consequences for the banking sector. The thesis of this paper is the following statement: The emergence of digital money of the central bank may significantly change the nature of commercial banks’ activities - including potentially eliminating their role in issuing cashless money.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48337330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Book Review „Central Banking in Turbulent Times“, Oxford University Press, 2018 by Francesco Papadia and Tuomas Välimäki","authors":"Eyas G. Osman, May Alowi","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0031","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69215759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study examines the impact of the quality of board members’ educational background on the financial performance of a group of Eurozone banks. Return on average assets (ROAA), Return on average equity (ROAE), and Tobin’s Q are used as measures to assess bank financial performance. Three indices are used as proxies for board members’ educational qualifications: Eduindex, for all academic qualifications in areas such as business or economics; Eduversal, for all qualifications from business schools ranked by Eduniversal; and EduFT, for all qualifications from business schools ranked by the Financial Times. Our study results offer relevant policy implications. Generally, there is a significant negative effect from Eduversal and EduFT qualifications on bank financial performance. This effect can be explained by the fact that some well-qualified board members use their expertise for their own interest, which, in most cases, is not favourable for bank financial performance. The implication is that the European Central Bank needs to implement more rigorous measures than those currently imposed to control bank board member behaviour and reduce agency problems.
{"title":"Board Members’ Educational Background and Financial Performance: Evidence from Eurozone Banks","authors":"V. Pereira, J. Filipe","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the impact of the quality of board members’ educational background on the financial performance of a group of Eurozone banks. Return on average assets (ROAA), Return on average equity (ROAE), and Tobin’s Q are used as measures to assess bank financial performance. Three indices are used as proxies for board members’ educational qualifications: Eduindex, for all academic qualifications in areas such as business or economics; Eduversal, for all qualifications from business schools ranked by Eduniversal; and EduFT, for all qualifications from business schools ranked by the Financial Times. Our study results offer relevant policy implications. Generally, there is a significant negative effect from Eduversal and EduFT qualifications on bank financial performance. This effect can be explained by the fact that some well-qualified board members use their expertise for their own interest, which, in most cases, is not favourable for bank financial performance. The implication is that the European Central Bank needs to implement more rigorous measures than those currently imposed to control bank board member behaviour and reduce agency problems.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45896620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This scientific paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables whose performance is measured under the implementation of Quantitative Easing in the US, by estimating vector autoregression (VAR) and Impulse Response Function with monthly data from US Federal Reserve, observed during the period January 1994-January 2022. Variables include: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); Industrial Production (INDPRO); Unemployment Rate (UNRATE); Interest Rates, Government Securities, Government Bonds (INTGSBUSM193N); Volatility Index (VIXCLS), Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate (RBUSBIS), Federal Surplus or Deficit (MTSDS133FMS), Money Supply M1 (WM1NS), M2 (WMNS), M3 (MABMM301USM189S). An evidence on macroeconomic variables of Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production when evaluating the effectiveness of QE is provided.
{"title":"Quantitative Easing and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States","authors":"Inda Mulaahmetović","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This scientific paper examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables whose performance is measured under the implementation of Quantitative Easing in the US, by estimating vector autoregression (VAR) and Impulse Response Function with monthly data from US Federal Reserve, observed during the period January 1994-January 2022. Variables include: Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL); Industrial Production (INDPRO); Unemployment Rate (UNRATE); Interest Rates, Government Securities, Government Bonds (INTGSBUSM193N); Volatility Index (VIXCLS), Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate (RBUSBIS), Federal Surplus or Deficit (MTSDS133FMS), Money Supply M1 (WM1NS), M2 (WMNS), M3 (MABMM301USM189S). An evidence on macroeconomic variables of Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production when evaluating the effectiveness of QE is provided.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41534104","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Damilola Oyetade, Adefemi A. Obalade, P. Muzindutsi
Abstract This research examines the potential impact of Basel IV capital requirements (CAR) on bank lending ability in Africa. To achieve the objective, the study simulated Basel IV capital ratio using historical data to create sample representative banks as if the selected banks had implemented Basel IV CAR for the period 2000 and 2018 and used actual data for existing Basel II and III CAR. Dynamic panel regression analyses, namely the System GMM and P-ARDL, were utilised. First, our results suggest that higher Basel CAR, particularly the new Basel IV, portends short-term negative impacts on bank lending while the long-term impact on bank lending is favorable. Second, the weight of non-performing loans tends to decline as banks transitioned from lower to higher Basel CAR. Lastly, this study shows that complying with Basel IV CAR will help African banks to achieve financial deepening and increase bank lending ability.
{"title":"Changes in Basel Capital Requirements and Lending Ability of African Commercial Banks","authors":"Damilola Oyetade, Adefemi A. Obalade, P. Muzindutsi","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This research examines the potential impact of Basel IV capital requirements (CAR) on bank lending ability in Africa. To achieve the objective, the study simulated Basel IV capital ratio using historical data to create sample representative banks as if the selected banks had implemented Basel IV CAR for the period 2000 and 2018 and used actual data for existing Basel II and III CAR. Dynamic panel regression analyses, namely the System GMM and P-ARDL, were utilised. First, our results suggest that higher Basel CAR, particularly the new Basel IV, portends short-term negative impacts on bank lending while the long-term impact on bank lending is favorable. Second, the weight of non-performing loans tends to decline as banks transitioned from lower to higher Basel CAR. Lastly, this study shows that complying with Basel IV CAR will help African banks to achieve financial deepening and increase bank lending ability.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49348799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The research objective of the study is to investigate the determinants of profitability of banks’ operating in GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries. The existing studies highlight the banks’ internal attributes and external factors that significantly influence profitability. The unbalanced panel data of 59 banks from the Bank scope database operating in six countries of GCC is used. Profitability is measured as return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) that have been used as dependent variables. Pooled OLS, fixed and random effects estimations are employed to explore the effect of explanatory variables internal factors, i.e. bank size, capital adequacy, asset quality, deposits ratio, asset management, operating efficiency and financial risk, and external factors, namely macroeconomic variables, GDP growth rate and inflation rate on dependent variables. Bank size and GDP growth have a significant and positive association with ROA. While Bank size and asset management have significant and positive impact, capital adequacy, financial risk, operating efficiency, and asset quality have a negative and significant impact on ROE. Fixed effects results are used for interpretation based on the Hausman test.
{"title":"Determinants of Banks Profitability: An Evidence from GCC Countries","authors":"Shoaib Khan","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The research objective of the study is to investigate the determinants of profitability of banks’ operating in GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries. The existing studies highlight the banks’ internal attributes and external factors that significantly influence profitability. The unbalanced panel data of 59 banks from the Bank scope database operating in six countries of GCC is used. Profitability is measured as return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) that have been used as dependent variables. Pooled OLS, fixed and random effects estimations are employed to explore the effect of explanatory variables internal factors, i.e. bank size, capital adequacy, asset quality, deposits ratio, asset management, operating efficiency and financial risk, and external factors, namely macroeconomic variables, GDP growth rate and inflation rate on dependent variables. Bank size and GDP growth have a significant and positive association with ROA. While Bank size and asset management have significant and positive impact, capital adequacy, financial risk, operating efficiency, and asset quality have a negative and significant impact on ROE. Fixed effects results are used for interpretation based on the Hausman test.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43301507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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