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Does the Phillips Curve Exist? Evidence from the Middle East and North African Countries 菲利普斯曲线存在吗?来自中东和北非国家的证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0023
M. Azam, Rasheed Khan, Saleem Khan
Abstract This study aims to explore the validity of Phillips curve for eight (8) countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), namely Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Malta, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia over the period of 1991–2019. The panel autoregressive distributed lag/pooled mean group (ARDL/PMG) estimation is employed in the study because of the nature of data. The results of ARDL/PMG reveal that there is no trade-off between inflation and unemployment rates in the panel of eight MENA countries in the long run, while there is a negative but insignificant relationship between these two variables in the short run. In addition, the trade-off between inflation and unemployment for each of the panel’s countries has also been investigated. The empirical results indicate that there is no trade-off in the short run as the estimated coefficients found are statistically insignificant. Hence, it is concluded that there is no empirical evidence of the trade-off between inflation and unemployment rates in MENA countries.
摘要本研究旨在探讨1991-2019年期间中东和北非(MENA)八(8)个国家,即阿尔及利亚、埃及、约旦、科威特、马耳他、摩洛哥、沙特阿拉伯和突尼斯的菲利普斯曲线的有效性。由于数据的性质,本研究采用了面板自回归分布滞后/汇集均值组(ARDL/PMG)估计。ARDL/PMG的结果表明,从长远来看,中东和北非地区八个国家的通货膨胀率和失业率之间没有权衡,而从短期来看,这两个变量之间存在负面但微不足道的关系。此外,该小组还调查了每个国家的通货膨胀和失业之间的权衡。经验结果表明,短期内没有权衡,因为发现的估计系数在统计上不重要。因此,得出的结论是,没有实证证据表明中东和北非地区国家的通货膨胀率和失业率之间存在权衡。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of Reserve Option Mechanism on Exchange Rate Volatility During the FED’s Tapering Period 美联储缩减量化宽松期间储备期权机制对汇率波动的影响
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0028
Erkan Demirbaş, Nurettin Can
Abstract This study investigates the effectiveness of ROM. We conducted the GARCH (1,1) Model to determine whether ROM contributed to decreasing the volatility of USD/TL exchange rate for the period 2013-2014. We construct four Models where four different variables are separately used that represent the ROM tool, i.e. the amount of FX reserves of CBRT via ROM, and the share of the FX reserves via ROM in Gross FX Reserves of CBRT. Our findings are convincing to say FX facility and the ratio of utilization for the FX facility to ensure the results are statistically meaningful during this period.
摘要本研究调查了ROM的有效性。我们采用GARCH(1,1)模型来确定ROM是否有助于降低2013-2014年期间美元/TL汇率的波动性。我们构建了四个模型,其中分别使用四个不同的变量来表示ROM工具,即CBRT通过ROM的外汇储备金额,以及通过ROM的汇率储备在CBRT总外汇储备中的份额。我们的研究结果令人信服地表明,外汇贷款和外汇贷款的使用率确保了这一时期的结果具有统计意义。
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引用次数: 1
An Application of Index Number Theory to Interest Rates: Evidence from Selected Post-Soviet Countries 指数理论在利率中的应用——来自后苏联国家的证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0018
K. Poghosyan, R. Poghosyan
Abstract In this paper, we use index number theory to decompose changes in total interest rate due to changes in the interest rate component and the weight component. We discuss the optimal calculation of a binary index using axiomatic index number theory. Based on this theory we compare alternative indexes and as a result, we choose the Marshall-Edgeworth index because most axioms are satisfied by this index. Comparing the results of binary periods decomposition, we conclude that the differences are not significant when we apply different indices. For multiple period comparison, we suggest using the chain index because it allows accounting for the weights evolution during the whole period. In addition, we derive a formula that could be useful for explaining the differences between chain and direct indexes when we produce multiple period comparison.
摘要本文利用指数数理论对利率分量和权重分量的变化对总利率的变化进行分解。利用公理化指标数理论讨论了二元指标的最优计算。基于这一理论,我们比较了不同的指标,结果,我们选择了Marshall-Edgeworth指标,因为该指标满足大多数公理。比较二元周期分解的结果,我们得出结论,当我们使用不同的指标时,差异并不显著。对于多期比较,我们建议使用链式指数,因为它可以考虑整个时期的权重演变。此外,我们还推导了一个公式,当我们进行多期比较时,它可能有助于解释链指数和直接指数之间的差异。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies 汇率在发达和新兴市场经济体货币政策反应函数中的作用评价
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0014
N. Fabris, M. Lazić
Abstract The subject of this paper is the evaluation of monetary policy reaction function on panel data of 37 world economies, both advanced and emerging markets, during the period of 1995Q1 – 2018Q3. The paper aims to evaluate the role and importance of the exchange rate in monetary policy reaction function depending on the level of economic development. For this purpose, a relevant set of unbalanced panel data was formed with a balanced relationship between developed and emerging market economies. The methodology of empirical research is based on the econometric assessment of monetary policy reaction function within which the central bank adjusts its key policy rate to the dynamics of inflation, output gap and fluctuations of the real effective exchange rate. The research results confirm the hypothesis that the exchange rate represents a statistically significant variable only in the monetary policy reaction function of emerging market economies. In contrast, adequate specification of developed economies’ monetary policy rule includes only standard macroeconomic fundamentals – inflation and output gap.
摘要本文的主题是对1995年第一季度至2018年第三季度37个世界经济体(包括发达市场和新兴市场)面板数据的货币政策反应函数的评估。本文旨在评估汇率在取决于经济发展水平的货币政策反应函数中的作用和重要性。为此,发达市场经济体和新兴市场经济体之间的平衡关系形成了一组相关的不平衡面板数据。实证研究方法基于对货币政策反应函数的计量评估,在该函数中,央行根据通货膨胀、产出缺口和实际有效汇率波动的动态调整其关键政策利率。研究结果证实了一个假设,即汇率仅在新兴市场经济体的货币政策反应函数中代表一个具有统计学意义的变量。相反,发达经济体货币政策规则的充分规范只包括标准的宏观经济基本面——通货膨胀和产出缺口。
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引用次数: 5
Gold as a Factor of Change in Central Bank Reserves in Periods of the Financial Markets Turbulence: the Case of Kazakhstan 黄金作为金融市场动荡时期央行储备变化的一个因素:以哈萨克斯坦为例
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0020
V. Dodonov
Abstract The article examines the impact of changes in the gold part of the reserves of the National Bank of Kazakhstan on their total volume with an emphasis on the factor of changes in the price of gold. The value of the factor of the price of gold increases during periods of global financial crises when Kazakhstan, as an oil exporting country, is under strong pressure on the current account and the exchange rate of the tenge due to a decline in oil prices. During these periods, the National Bank conducts foreign exchange interventions to support the tenge exchange rate and spends its reserves, which increases the relevance of their safety. The paper tests the hypothesis that in such periods, the rise in the price of gold, due to its function as a safe haven asset, can compensate expenditures on foreign exchange interventions for the central banks and increase the stability of reserves. From this point of view, the article examines three periods of high turbulence in world markets of the 2000s and changes in the National Bank’s gross reserves, as well as the influence of the gold factor on these changes. It was revealed that during the crisis periods, the rise in the price of gold contributed to the stability of the gross reserves of the National Bank, and the effectiveness of this factor was directly proportional to the gold share in the reserves.
摘要本文考察了哈萨克斯坦国家银行储备中黄金部分的变化对其总量的影响,重点是黄金价格变化的因素。在全球金融危机期间,黄金价格因素的价值增加,当时哈萨克斯坦作为石油出口国,由于油价下跌,经常账户和坚戈汇率面临巨大压力。在此期间,国家银行进行外汇干预以支持坚戈汇率,并动用其储备,这增加了其安全性。该论文检验了这样一种假设,即在这一时期,黄金价格的上涨,由于其作为避险资产的功能,可以补偿中央银行的外汇干预支出,并提高储备的稳定性。从这个角度来看,本文考察了2000年代世界市场的三个高度动荡时期、国家银行总储备的变化,以及黄金因素对这些变化的影响。据透露,在危机期间,黄金价格的上涨有助于国家银行总储备的稳定,而这一因素的有效性与黄金在储备中的份额成正比。
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引用次数: 0
The Influence of Capital Requirement of Basel III Adoption on Banks’ Operating Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. Banks 巴塞尔协议III资本要求对银行运营效率的影响——来自美国银行业的证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0011
G. A. Ogunmola, F. Chien, K. Chau, Li Li
Abstract The United States is recognized as the largest economic entity in the world and its financial system has developed steadily through the guidance of the Federal Reserve System for over one hundred years. However, in recent years, the global economic downturn, coupled with the global COVID-19 pandemic, has led to an unprecedented economic depression and rapid decline in the United States financial sector. Although the U.S. government has gradually instructed banks to raise the core quantity but a giant crisis under the economic depression is still present. This study thus takes U.S. commercial banks as the subject of research and employs the two-stage bootstrapped truncated regression to investigate the impacts of increases in required Core, Tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios on their efficiency.
美国是公认的世界上最大的经济体,一百多年来,美国的金融体系在美联储的指导下稳步发展。然而,近年来,全球经济低迷,加上全球COVID-19大流行,导致美国经济陷入前所未有的萧条,金融业迅速衰落。虽然美国政府已逐步指示银行提高核心数量,但经济萧条下的巨大危机仍然存在。因此,本研究以美国商业银行为研究对象,采用两阶段自举截断回归,考察核心资本充足率、一级资本充足率和总资本充足率的提高对其效率的影响。
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引用次数: 1
How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries 银行特定因素如何影响不良贷款:来自G20国家的证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0015
M. Erdaş, Zeynep Ezanoğlu
Abstract Banking is important for the stability and success of the economy. The success of the banking system on financial intermediation in developing countries is directly affected by non-performing loans (NPLs). Many factors can be treated as NPL determinants. Accordingly, the factors that explain NPLs contain very important information for banks. To this end, the study is an attempt to examine various banking factors that affect NPLs with respect to developing economies. In this study, the bank-specific and macroeconomic factors affecting the NPL rates were analysed through the dynamic panel data analysis. Analyses were made using described G20 countries between 1998 and 2017. The results indicate that the lagged value of NPLs, return on equity, credit growth and credit costs have a significant positive relationship with NPLs, while capital adequacy and GDP have a negative association with NPLs. The results confirm that if the bank-specific conditions change, the credit quality and bank management of banks are affected. It was concluded that the performance of banks is responsive to an effective loan monitoring policy. The findings of the study have implications for policymakers and regulators in the banking sector.
摘要银行业对经济的稳定和成功至关重要。发展中国家银行系统在金融中介方面的成功与否直接受到不良贷款的影响。许多因素可以被视为不良贷款的决定因素。因此,解释不良贷款的因素对银行来说包含了非常重要的信息。为此,本研究试图考察影响发展中经济体不良贷款的各种银行因素。在本研究中,通过动态面板数据分析,分析了影响不良贷款率的银行特定因素和宏观经济因素。1998年至2017年间,使用所描述的G20国家进行了分析。结果表明,不良贷款的滞后值、净资产收益率、信贷增长和信贷成本与不良贷款呈正相关,而资本充足率和GDP与不良贷款呈负相关。研究结果证实,如果银行的具体情况发生变化,银行的信贷质量和银行管理都会受到影响。得出的结论是,银行的业绩是对有效的贷款监测政策的反应。该研究结果对银行业的决策者和监管机构具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 6
Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Liquidity Creation: Evidence from MENA Countries 银行流动性创造的银行特定因素和宏观经济因素:来自中东和北非国家的证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0013
Anas Alaoui Mdaghri, L. Oubdi
Abstract This study measures liquidity creation within a sample of 153 banks operating in 12 Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries from 2008 to 2017. We found that these banks created a total of $461.32 billion in liquidity in 2017, approximately 1.51 times the total liquidity created in 2008, mainly driven by commercial banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. We also conducted an econometric analysis to investigate the internal and external factors affecting bank liquidity creation, applying a Fixed Effects model and the new Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR). The results show that, among bank-specific factors, bank liquidity creation in MENA countries is related to capital, size, bank risk, deposits and profitability whilst market concentration does not appear to play a significant role. Regarding macroeconomic factors, inflation, unemployment, savings and monetary policy explain the variations in bank liquidity creation.
本研究以2008年至2017年在12个中东和北非(MENA)国家运营的153家银行为样本,对流动性创造进行了测量。我们发现,这些银行在2017年共创造了4613.2亿美元的流动性,约为2008年总流动性的1.51倍,主要由海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家的商业银行推动。我们还运用固定效应模型和新的矩分位数回归方法(MMQR)对影响银行流动性创造的内部和外部因素进行了计量分析。结果表明,在银行特定因素中,中东和北非国家的银行流动性创造与资本、规模、银行风险、存款和盈利能力有关,而市场集中度似乎没有发挥重要作用。关于宏观经济因素,通货膨胀、失业、储蓄和货币政策解释了银行流动性创造的变化。
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引用次数: 3
Adoption of Cloud Services in Central Banks: Hindering Factors and the Recommendations for Way Forward 中央银行采用云服务:阻碍因素和前进道路建议
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0016
Darell Edmond, Vijay Prakash, L. Garg, S. Bawa
Abstract Current research on cloud computing often focuses on the technology itself and the benefits that one company can use and choose from cloud services. Most of the research has focused on mainstream enterprises and limited regard to Central Banks’ (CBs’) Cloud Computing Adoption (CCA). CBs are continually exploring opportunities to enhance IT efficacy while minimizing expenditures and ensuring data protection and network security. This paper investigates the factors affecting the CBs’ CCA by surveying 40 CBs representing approximately 25% of total CBs worldwide. The main participants were senior IT managers who are responsible for any IT decisions in CBs. The findings are also significant for other organizations or businesses where data privacy is crucial. The study results indicate that CBs are still reluctant to migrate to the public cloud. Influential factors preventing CCA are data protection, privacy, and risks.
摘要当前对云计算的研究通常集中在技术本身以及一家公司可以使用和选择云服务的好处上。大多数研究都集中在主流企业上,而对中央银行的云计算采用(CCA)关注有限。CB不断探索提高IT效率的机会,同时最大限度地减少支出,确保数据保护和网络安全。本文通过调查40个CB来调查影响CB CCA的因素,这些CB约占全球CB总数的25%。主要参与者是负责CB中任何IT决策的高级IT经理。这一发现对数据隐私至关重要的其他组织或企业也具有重要意义。研究结果表明,CB仍然不愿意迁移到公共云。影响CCA的因素包括数据保护、隐私和风险。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptive Early Warning Systems: An Axiomatic Approach 自适应预警系统:一种公理方法
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-04-30 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2022-0017
Diptes C. P. Bhimjee
Abstract The U.S. Subprime Crisis and the subsequent Great Recession have highlighted a renewed interest in the proper design and implementation of Early Warning Systems (E.W.S.), in order to help deter the onset of subsequent extreme financial events, through the implementation of adequate crisis detection mechanisms. The present article describes the Adaptive Early Warning Systems (A.E.W.S.) axiomatic approach, as a natural operational extension to E.W.S. testing. This novel protocol upholds the operational dimension of implementing an efficient holistic crisis detection mechanism, a domain which has been hitherto overlooked by the E.W.S. literature. The paper first describes the major axiomatic principles sustaining the A.E.W.S. protocol, which seek to establish universal principles in support of the said protocol. Second, the article also describes a basic universal template for an A.E.W.S. surveillance platform, which duly describes how multiple testing procedures can be integrated into a single crisis detection framework, while targeting multiple segments of the financial markets (such as the conventional and non-conventional segments of the financial markets). Third, the paper also describes the major advantages and disadvantages associated with the implementation of this novel protocol. It is hoped that the effective implementation of the A.E.W.S. protocol as a novel operational framework in the global macroprudential toolkit might help deter the onset of future extreme financial events, by enabling a greater cohesiveness in E.W.S.-related central banking procedures, as well as promoting a greater international central banking cooperation prior to and during financial distress episodes.
美国次贷危机和随后的大衰退凸显了人们对早期预警系统(E.W.S.)的设计和实施的新兴趣,通过实施适当的危机检测机制,以帮助阻止随后极端金融事件的发生。本文描述了自适应预警系统(A.E.W.S.)公理方法,作为E.W.S.测试的自然操作扩展。这种新颖的协议支持实施有效的整体危机检测机制的操作维度,这是一个迄今为止被E.W.S.文献所忽视的领域。本文首先描述了支持A.E.W.S.协议的主要公理原则,试图建立支持上述协议的普遍原则。其次,本文还描述了A.E.W.S.监控平台的基本通用模板,该模板适当地描述了如何将多个测试程序集成到单个危机检测框架中,同时针对金融市场的多个细分市场(例如金融市场的传统和非传统细分市场)。第三,本文还描述了与该新协议实现相关的主要优点和缺点。作为全球宏观审慎工具包中的一种新的操作框架,希望有效实施东亚经合组织协议,通过在与东亚经合组织相关的中央银行程序中实现更大的凝聚力,以及在金融危机事件发生之前和期间促进更大的国际中央银行合作,可能有助于阻止未来极端金融事件的发生。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
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