A. Omankhanlen, Noah Ilori, A. Isibor, L. U. Okoye
Abstract This study examined the nexus between monetary policy and the achievement of a bank’s profit objective. There have been lots of arguments about the benefits of monetary policy implementation on deposit money bank’s operations, since the policies have been seen to impact on their performance. This study was carried out to establish the influence of variables like Liquidity Ratio, Interest and Money supply (M2), which are used as monetary policy instruments, on deposit money bank profitability objective. The study covers the period from 2002-2019. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag and Error correction model were adopted in the analysis of the data. The study revealed that there was a positive long run relationship between Liquidity Ratio and deposit money bank’s profitability; there also existed a negative long run relationship between interest rate and deposit money bank profitability; lastly, there existed a positive long run relationship between Money Supply (M2) and deposit money bank’s profitability. Based on the findings, monetary authorities should put in place measures for Liquidity ratio, interest rates and M2 implementation to aid deposit money banks operations in the achievement of their profit objective.
{"title":"Monetary Policies and the Achievement of Bank Profit Objective","authors":"A. Omankhanlen, Noah Ilori, A. Isibor, L. U. Okoye","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examined the nexus between monetary policy and the achievement of a bank’s profit objective. There have been lots of arguments about the benefits of monetary policy implementation on deposit money bank’s operations, since the policies have been seen to impact on their performance. This study was carried out to establish the influence of variables like Liquidity Ratio, Interest and Money supply (M2), which are used as monetary policy instruments, on deposit money bank profitability objective. The study covers the period from 2002-2019. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag and Error correction model were adopted in the analysis of the data. The study revealed that there was a positive long run relationship between Liquidity Ratio and deposit money bank’s profitability; there also existed a negative long run relationship between interest rate and deposit money bank profitability; lastly, there existed a positive long run relationship between Money Supply (M2) and deposit money bank’s profitability. Based on the findings, monetary authorities should put in place measures for Liquidity ratio, interest rates and M2 implementation to aid deposit money banks operations in the achievement of their profit objective.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"201 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44798482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper analyses the relationship between the banks’ credit risk and macroeconomic conditions by addressing the following questions; (i) How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to lending risk depending on the ban-specific features? (ii) Are the effects of macroeconomic shocks different across the loan portfolios in various economic sectors? Unlike the common assumption in the literature, the empirical analysis considers banks’ heterogeneity and diversification across borrowers. It employs heterogeneous panel SVARs and standard SVAR models on a dataset from 2002. Q1 to 2019.Q1. The results suggest that the deterioration in credit quality is affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, with substantial heterogeneity in the magnitudes and timing in terms of the type of loans in various business sectors and bank characteristics. In particular, we find strong evidence of cyclical sensitivity of loan quality, and about 1/4 of banks’ NPLs increases stronger in response to the shocks to growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and profitability. The highly profitable banks tend to less engage in excessive risk-taking, resulting in lower NPLs, whereas the relation of asset size to NPLs is not significant for the sample. A growth shock plays a prominent role in explaining the variation of NPLs for the trade and mining sectors. Similarly, the loan supply shock is the main determinant for the construction sector’s NPLs, while the exchange rate shock is the most responsible for the manufacturing sector. The interest rate shock and exchange rate shock are the most effective factors on NPLs of consumer loans. Finally, the feedback effect of NPLs shows that deterioration of credit quality slows down economic growth.
{"title":"Heterogeneity in the Relationship Between NPLs and Real Economy: Evidence from the Mongolian Banking System","authors":"Enkhzaya Demid","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper analyses the relationship between the banks’ credit risk and macroeconomic conditions by addressing the following questions; (i) How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to lending risk depending on the ban-specific features? (ii) Are the effects of macroeconomic shocks different across the loan portfolios in various economic sectors? Unlike the common assumption in the literature, the empirical analysis considers banks’ heterogeneity and diversification across borrowers. It employs heterogeneous panel SVARs and standard SVAR models on a dataset from 2002. Q1 to 2019.Q1. The results suggest that the deterioration in credit quality is affected by both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, with substantial heterogeneity in the magnitudes and timing in terms of the type of loans in various business sectors and bank characteristics. In particular, we find strong evidence of cyclical sensitivity of loan quality, and about 1/4 of banks’ NPLs increases stronger in response to the shocks to growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and profitability. The highly profitable banks tend to less engage in excessive risk-taking, resulting in lower NPLs, whereas the relation of asset size to NPLs is not significant for the sample. A growth shock plays a prominent role in explaining the variation of NPLs for the trade and mining sectors. Similarly, the loan supply shock is the main determinant for the construction sector’s NPLs, while the exchange rate shock is the most responsible for the manufacturing sector. The interest rate shock and exchange rate shock are the most effective factors on NPLs of consumer loans. Finally, the feedback effect of NPLs shows that deterioration of credit quality slows down economic growth.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"31 1","pages":"133 - 155"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69216210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Despite the significant academic interest in the economic cohesion, the various aspects of convergence and the ways they can be measured still remain theoretically unclear. These are issues of extreme political significance, especially for countries aspiring for EU and euro area membership. The goal of this paper is to consolidate a variety of theoretical views on the convergence and its measurement and use it as the basis to assess the progress and the current state of economic convergence to the EU of the four candidate countries. The interrelation between the three forms of convergence in the different phases of the economic cycle is studied and the slobs in the ways the convergence is measured are outlined. The study reveals large differences between the candidate countries in achieving convergence with the EU. Their experiences do not confirm the positive relationship between nominal and real convergence. The structural convergence considered as convergence of sectoral structure has but little impact on the real convergence.
{"title":"Nominal, Structural and Real Convergence of the EU Candidate Countries’ Economies","authors":"D. Bobeva","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3923309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923309","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite the significant academic interest in the economic cohesion, the various aspects of convergence and the ways they can be measured still remain theoretically unclear. These are issues of extreme political significance, especially for countries aspiring for EU and euro area membership. The goal of this paper is to consolidate a variety of theoretical views on the convergence and its measurement and use it as the basis to assess the progress and the current state of economic convergence to the EU of the four candidate countries. The interrelation between the three forms of convergence in the different phases of the economic cycle is studied and the slobs in the ways the convergence is measured are outlined. The study reveals large differences between the candidate countries in achieving convergence with the EU. Their experiences do not confirm the positive relationship between nominal and real convergence. The structural convergence considered as convergence of sectoral structure has but little impact on the real convergence.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"59 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41615637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The Coronavirus pandemic, as a global and total risk of our time, has imposed the need for a more complete and comprehensive review of existing approaches to crisis prevention and preventive management in general. This crisis also pointed to some shortcomings in quality management, risk management and change management, which had not been removed in a timely and adequate manner in more stable conditions in order to function better in crisis situations. Accordingly, the structure of this paper was conceived, which, in addition to an introduction and concluding remarks, has five short, but thematically complete, units. In the first part, preventive management is seen as a paradigm of the successful management of problems, incidents and crises. In the second and third parts, the influence of the principles of quality management and the principles of risk management on the prevention of a crisis, as well as their cooperation, effectiveness and synergistic effects are discussed. The fourth part analyses the key processes of change and conflict management in terms of crisis prevention. In the fifth part, an effective, complete and comprehensive crisis prevention model based on quality management, risk management and change management is created, with the primary goal of achieving sustained success in all business conditions. Bearing in mind that the processes and consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic have still not been completed or become clear, the concluding remarks identify certain messages and lessons that could have been learned in its initial stages.
{"title":"Crisis Prevention and the Coronavirus Pandemic as a Global and Total Risk of Our Time","authors":"Radoica Luburić","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Coronavirus pandemic, as a global and total risk of our time, has imposed the need for a more complete and comprehensive review of existing approaches to crisis prevention and preventive management in general. This crisis also pointed to some shortcomings in quality management, risk management and change management, which had not been removed in a timely and adequate manner in more stable conditions in order to function better in crisis situations. Accordingly, the structure of this paper was conceived, which, in addition to an introduction and concluding remarks, has five short, but thematically complete, units. In the first part, preventive management is seen as a paradigm of the successful management of problems, incidents and crises. In the second and third parts, the influence of the principles of quality management and the principles of risk management on the prevention of a crisis, as well as their cooperation, effectiveness and synergistic effects are discussed. The fourth part analyses the key processes of change and conflict management in terms of crisis prevention. In the fifth part, an effective, complete and comprehensive crisis prevention model based on quality management, risk management and change management is created, with the primary goal of achieving sustained success in all business conditions. Bearing in mind that the processes and consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic have still not been completed or become clear, the concluding remarks identify certain messages and lessons that could have been learned in its initial stages.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"55 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46808157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Most emerging market central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy system. The heart of inflation targeting system is inflation expectations. The success of a central bank in achieving targets depends on to the extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases, its ability to affect the public expectation also increases. The public adjusts its inflation expectations based on announced inflation target only in case of that they believe that the central bank has the sufficiency to reach the inflation target. Credibility enables expectation to be formed in a forward-looking way by weakening its connection with the past. This study aims to contribute to the literature concerning the effects of credibility on monetary policy. For this purpose, using data of six emerging inflation targeting economies (Turkey, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Chile, Poland, and South Africa), the empirical tests were carried out in order to understand the effect of the credibility on the behaviour of inflation expectation in emerging economies. The findings denote that credibility is quite relevant to reduce inflation expectations and contributes to the strength of inflation targets being an anchor for inflation expectations.
{"title":"Does Monetary Policy Credibility Help in Anchoring Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Six Inflation Targeting Emerging Economies","authors":"A. Güler","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Most emerging market central banks have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy system. The heart of inflation targeting system is inflation expectations. The success of a central bank in achieving targets depends on to the extent to which inflation expectations are formed by the announced targets. As the credibility of the central bank increases, its ability to affect the public expectation also increases. The public adjusts its inflation expectations based on announced inflation target only in case of that they believe that the central bank has the sufficiency to reach the inflation target. Credibility enables expectation to be formed in a forward-looking way by weakening its connection with the past. This study aims to contribute to the literature concerning the effects of credibility on monetary policy. For this purpose, using data of six emerging inflation targeting economies (Turkey, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Chile, Poland, and South Africa), the empirical tests were carried out in order to understand the effect of the credibility on the behaviour of inflation expectation in emerging economies. The findings denote that credibility is quite relevant to reduce inflation expectations and contributes to the strength of inflation targets being an anchor for inflation expectations.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"93 - 111"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43834447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Central banks often use certain concentration indices in their official reports to determine the degree of intensity of competition, of which the most common are the concentration ratio and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. It is important to emphasize that when calculating the value of these indices, the National Bank of Serbia most often uses the absolute value of assets. In addition to the mentioned indices, the values of the Gini coefficient, Entropy coefficient, Rosenblatt index and graphical representation of the Lorenz curve in the period 2015–2019 are presented in this paper, using the balance sheet position loans and receivables from customers, but not including loans and receivables from banks and other financial organizations. The results of the static and dynamic analysis of concentration indicate that, compared to Montenegro, the banking sector of Serbia is characterized by a larger number of banks, less concentration on the market, and stronger intensity of competition. Although market changes are reflected in a reduced number of banks while a change in the dispersion of market shares affected the change in the market structures of the banking sectors, instability and uncertainty of the analysed sector remained unchanged in the case of both countries.
{"title":"Comparative Analysis of the Banking Sector Competitiveness in Serbia and Montenegro","authors":"Z. Grubišić, Sandra Kamenković, Tijana Kaličanin","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Central banks often use certain concentration indices in their official reports to determine the degree of intensity of competition, of which the most common are the concentration ratio and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. It is important to emphasize that when calculating the value of these indices, the National Bank of Serbia most often uses the absolute value of assets. In addition to the mentioned indices, the values of the Gini coefficient, Entropy coefficient, Rosenblatt index and graphical representation of the Lorenz curve in the period 2015–2019 are presented in this paper, using the balance sheet position loans and receivables from customers, but not including loans and receivables from banks and other financial organizations. The results of the static and dynamic analysis of concentration indicate that, compared to Montenegro, the banking sector of Serbia is characterized by a larger number of banks, less concentration on the market, and stronger intensity of competition. Although market changes are reflected in a reduced number of banks while a change in the dispersion of market shares affected the change in the market structures of the banking sectors, instability and uncertainty of the analysed sector remained unchanged in the case of both countries.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"75 - 91"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47275636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study investigates the impact of variability in earnings, stringent regulatory measures and the trend of extending loans while keeping in view deposit ratio on income smoothening practices for a sample of 20 commercial banks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from the year 2010 to 2017. The likelihood of smoothing activities is measured through its widely used proxy, i.e. loan loss provisions (LLPs). Moreover, earnings before tax and provisions (EBTP) and loan to deposit ratio (LD) have been incorporated to determine the impact of earnings and loans to deposit ratio on income smoothening. We find that commercial banks are less likely to manage earnings through smoothening practices, which shows that commercial banks adhere to regulatory restrictions. This is further supported by the fact that income smoothing activities decrease as a result of the increase in capital adequacy ratios after the imposition of stringent rules, which exert greater regulatory pressure on banks, whereas the pace of income smoothing increases as a result of an increase in loans to deposit ratio, which reveals that banks take credit risk but manage within the ambit of regulatory restrictions. Based on the findings, we argue that the imposition of regulatory restrictions through the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has not only discouraged income smoothening through loan loss provisions but also enhances reporting quality. The results of this study provide useful insights for investors, creditors and stakeholders.
{"title":"The Impact of Earnings variability and Regulatory Measures on Income Smoothing: Evidence from Panel Regression","authors":"Amina Malik, Haroon Aziz, Buerhan Saiti, S. Din","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study investigates the impact of variability in earnings, stringent regulatory measures and the trend of extending loans while keeping in view deposit ratio on income smoothening practices for a sample of 20 commercial banks listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from the year 2010 to 2017. The likelihood of smoothing activities is measured through its widely used proxy, i.e. loan loss provisions (LLPs). Moreover, earnings before tax and provisions (EBTP) and loan to deposit ratio (LD) have been incorporated to determine the impact of earnings and loans to deposit ratio on income smoothening. We find that commercial banks are less likely to manage earnings through smoothening practices, which shows that commercial banks adhere to regulatory restrictions. This is further supported by the fact that income smoothing activities decrease as a result of the increase in capital adequacy ratios after the imposition of stringent rules, which exert greater regulatory pressure on banks, whereas the pace of income smoothing increases as a result of an increase in loans to deposit ratio, which reveals that banks take credit risk but manage within the ambit of regulatory restrictions. Based on the findings, we argue that the imposition of regulatory restrictions through the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has not only discouraged income smoothening through loan loss provisions but also enhances reporting quality. The results of this study provide useful insights for investors, creditors and stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"183 - 201"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49181419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study aims to examine the determinants of the MIR interest rate in the Euro area for the period 2003Q1-2015Q3. By employing Fixed and Random Effects as econometric methodologies, I examine whether the MIR rate is affected by the following macroeconomic factors: unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP growth, political stability index, and wages as percentage of GDP. All these factors have been found to be significant drivers of the MIR rate and thus, they have to be taken into consideration when designing macro-prudential policies. The findings in this paper provide alternative explanations for the empirical evidence concerning interest rate spreads behaviour.
{"title":"Macroeconomic determinants of MIR interest rate margin in the euro area","authors":"D. Anastasiou","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study aims to examine the determinants of the MIR interest rate in the Euro area for the period 2003Q1-2015Q3. By employing Fixed and Random Effects as econometric methodologies, I examine whether the MIR rate is affected by the following macroeconomic factors: unemployment rate, inflation rate, GDP growth, political stability index, and wages as percentage of GDP. All these factors have been found to be significant drivers of the MIR rate and thus, they have to be taken into consideration when designing macro-prudential policies. The findings in this paper provide alternative explanations for the empirical evidence concerning interest rate spreads behaviour.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"39 - 53"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43134681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Eita, V. Manuel, E. Naimhwaka, Florette Nakusera
Abstract This paper examined the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. This suggests that fiscal deficit has a direct effect on inflation in Namibia. The study also found a unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to inflation in Namibia. The study confirmed that South Africa’s prices have positive effect on inflation in Namibia. The key policy implication drawn for the result is that if not contained, high negative fiscal balances could impair the monetary policy objective of price stability. It is therefore advised that fiscal and monetary policies need to be well coordinated to bring fiscal deficit within acceptable level. Given that the main monetary policy goal in Namibia is to achieve and maintain price stability, the results in this study suggest that monitoring budget deficits and price developments in South Africa to develop informed policies is one way to achieve this objective.
{"title":"The Impact of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Namibia","authors":"J. Eita, V. Manuel, E. Naimhwaka, Florette Nakusera","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examined the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. This suggests that fiscal deficit has a direct effect on inflation in Namibia. The study also found a unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to inflation in Namibia. The study confirmed that South Africa’s prices have positive effect on inflation in Namibia. The key policy implication drawn for the result is that if not contained, high negative fiscal balances could impair the monetary policy objective of price stability. It is therefore advised that fiscal and monetary policies need to be well coordinated to bring fiscal deficit within acceptable level. Given that the main monetary policy goal in Namibia is to achieve and maintain price stability, the results in this study suggest that monitoring budget deficits and price developments in South Africa to develop informed policies is one way to achieve this objective.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"141 - 164"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42501310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Veton Zeqiraj, Flamur Mrasori, Omer Iskenderoglu, K. Sohag
Abstract This study addresses the issue of whether banking performance impacts financial stability in Southeastern European countries. To answer this question, the GMM approach has been applied in the analyses of the panel data over the period 2000–2015 for Southeastern Europe. The findings reveal the presence of significant positive long-run relationship between ROA, ROE, trade openness, and human capital, while government expenditures have negative impact on financial stability. Trade openness, human capital and government expenditures can keep the financial system stable as a whole. The Granger causality analysis discloses the main hypothesis where the banking system in this part of Europe accounts for more than 80% of the financial system. The study sheds light to the policymakers and research about the role of banking performance on financial stability for this region of Europe.
{"title":"Dynamic Impact of Banking Performance on Financial Stability: Fresh Evidence from Southeastern Europe","authors":"Veton Zeqiraj, Flamur Mrasori, Omer Iskenderoglu, K. Sohag","doi":"10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2021-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study addresses the issue of whether banking performance impacts financial stability in Southeastern European countries. To answer this question, the GMM approach has been applied in the analyses of the panel data over the period 2000–2015 for Southeastern Europe. The findings reveal the presence of significant positive long-run relationship between ROA, ROE, trade openness, and human capital, while government expenditures have negative impact on financial stability. Trade openness, human capital and government expenditures can keep the financial system stable as a whole. The Granger causality analysis discloses the main hypothesis where the banking system in this part of Europe accounts for more than 80% of the financial system. The study sheds light to the policymakers and research about the role of banking performance on financial stability for this region of Europe.","PeriodicalId":44101,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice","volume":"10 1","pages":"165 - 181"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46327402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：